Latest Research
March 06, 2025
Vancouver’s Housing Foundation is Firmer than Toronto’s
Much ink has been spilled about the weak state of the GTA’s housing market, particularly its condo sector. Indeed, GTA condo prices are falling, while price trends remain soft for other structure types. In contrast, the GVA market has held up much better in the face of the Bank of Canada’s 2022/23 interest rate hiking campaign.
March 06, 2025
WATCH: Derek Burleton discuss what tariffs and trade uncertainty could mean for Canada's economy on MoneyTalk
Canada is facing uncertainty around trade with the United States, but what does it mean for the economy, interest rates and the loonie? MoneyTalk’s Greg Bonnell discusses with Derek Burleton, VP and Deputy Chief Economist, TD.
March 04, 2025
Cradle to grave: Lifecycle emissions of electric versus gasoline vehicles in Canada
Battery electric vehicles have significantly lower lifecycle emissions than gasoline vehicles. While electric vehicles start off with a higher carbon footprint due to emissions associated with battery production, fuel-related emissions of gasoline vehicles are far greater and drive the emissions gap between the two vehicle types.
February 28, 2025
WATCH: Beata Caranci talks about tariffs, trade relations and the economic implications on MoneyTalk
It’s still the early days of the new U.S. administration, but we’ve already had a flurry of policy initiatives, including executive orders and numerous tariff announcements. Beata Caranci, Chief Economist with TD, speaks with MoneyTalk’s Kim Parlee about what this could mean for economic growth, monetary policy, and how the global outlook has changed.
February 20, 2025
The State of the Canadian Job Market and a Lookahead to an Uncertain Future
Canada’s economy is facing no shortage of risks in the months ahead, from the potential of U.S. tariffs to a population slowdown to uncertainty around the upcoming federal election. On the plus side, Canada’s labour market is starting 2025 in solid shape, providing a decent foundation to the economy as it navigates this potentially bumpy period. Indeed, for all of Canada’s economic challenges – weak economic growth, poor productivity, and deteriorating housing affordability – the job market has been serving as a pillar of economic stability.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
January 28, 2025
Potential Hazards Ahead: Trade Risks in the North American Automotive Industry
The automotive industry accounts for over 10% of intraregional trade in North America, equating to hundreds of billions of dollars in cross-border trade flows and millions of jobs. Proposed blanket tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, if retaliated against in equal measure, would likely result in a material contraction in vehicle sales in all three North American nations as price increases would ripple through supply chains.
January 21, 2025
Canada-U.S. Trade Relationship Infographic
Infographic that explores the strong trade relationship between Canada and the United States. Canada is the largest export market for the U.S., while maintaining a small trade deficit. Additionally, Canada is a net importer of $5 billion in U.S. automotive products, highlighting the deep economic ties between the two nations.
January 21, 2025
Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade
In addition to border security concerns, Trump has argued that “the United States can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits that Canada needs to stay afloat,” claiming that the U.S. subsidizes Canada to the tune of US$200 billion annually. How “massive” is the deficit and is there validity to this claim of subsidization?
January 21, 2025
WATCH: Marc Ercolao set the record straight on Canada-U.S. trade with MoneyTalk
As Canada braces for a period of “deal making” under U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy, just how large is the country’s trade surplus with the U.S.? Marc Ercolao, Economist with TD, speaks with Kim Parlee about what’s at stake and facts behind the rhetoric.
January 17, 2025
Ready or Not, Here He Comes
Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Monday, and Canadians are bracing for the economic threats in recent weeks to turn into action through a flurry of executive orders. To assess the magnitude of this threat, here are the areas of economic growth and jobs most at risk on Trump’s return to the White House.
January 16, 2025
TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: Consumers Regained Their Spending Mojo, but Tariffs Cloud 2025 Outlook
The latest TD debit and credit card spending data point to growing momentum, reinforcing a solid outlook for consumer spending. December data show spending growth accelerated to 7.2% year-on-year, up from November’s 4.0% and October’s 5.8%.
January 15, 2025
Canadian Rental Market Outlook: Rent Growth to Continue Cooling in 2025
For 2025, we expect Canadian, purpose-built rent growth to slow to a range of 3-4%. Our outlook reflects a multitude of factors such as slowing population growth, increased rental supply, and lower interest rates.
January 06, 2025
Climate Policy in a 2nd Trump Term – What’s on the Chopping Block?
Climate policy is set to take a major U-turn under Donald Trump’s second term. The president-elect will likely prioritize rolling back regulatory powers and direct spending that expanded significantly under President Biden.
December 05, 2024
Economic Outlook Gets Trumped!
Starting points matter for a new administration. President Trump will be inheriting a strong economy that has been beating forecasts by a statistical mile! This works to the advantage of Republicans in 2025. Households have more cushion to absorb some economic pain from a tariff war compared to the economies of trading partners that are treading water.
November 22, 2024
WATCH: James Orlando speak on how Canada is hitting pause on its booming population growth with MoneyTalk
The federal government is making changes to its immigration strategy, including reductions in its annual targets, after acknowledging that it had made policy mistakes. James Orlando, Director and Senior Economist with TD, speaks with Kim Parlee about the changes and the potential implications for Canada’s economy.
November 20, 2024
Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge
Our analysis suggests that mortgage renewals are going to be less stressful for households than previously feared, with aggregate payments on Canadian mortgages poised to decline for balances outstanding as of mid-2024. The key factors behind this expected easing are lower interest rates and increased payments, which have helped to front-load the payment shock.
November 14, 2024
Ontario’s Industry-based Outlook: Navigating Turbulent Waters
Ontario’s industry-based GDP managed to increase at a slightly faster year-on-year pace than the rest of Canada in the first half this year. This is noteworthy given that the province has had the weakest housing market in the country and is home to rate-sensitive, highly indebted households.
November 07, 2024
Popping Canada’s Population Bubble
The federal government has hit pause on Canada’s booming population growth. Through planned reductions in both the pool of non-permanent residents (NPRs) and a scaling back in its annual permanent immigration targets, the country’s population growth is set to stall over the next two years.
November 06, 2024
Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump
As of 11 AM ET, Donald Trump has secured 277 of the 538 Electoral College votes, becoming the 47th president. While ballots are still being counted, President Trump also looks to have won the popular vote, which has not happened for a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
November 06, 2024
WATCH: Beata Caranci talk about Trump 2.0 and what it may mean for markets, the economy and Canada
Former Republican President Donald Trump is projected to have won a second term. MoneyTalk’s Kim Parlee speaks with Beata Caranci, Chief Economist at TD, and Kevin Hebner, Global Investment Strategist with TD Epoch, about the results and the implications for the economy, trade, and the markets.
November 01, 2024
Canada’s interest rate conundrum: Too much of a good thing
A call for a jumbo cut to head off mortgage reset rates must be assessed carefully. Surprisingly, roughly a quarter of mortgages will reset at a LOWER interest rate next year. For those renewing into higher rates, the shock might be milder than expected, given a 30% increase in home prices and wages. Years of debt repayments have also built equity room, which homeowners, including those with variable-rate-fixed-payments mortgages, can use to lower payments if needed.
October 25, 2024
Is 50 the New 25?
No, I’m not talking about age, although I’d greatly benefit from that view! I knew I would eat crow on Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) call with the high market pricing for a 50 basis point (bp) cut. There’s no regret in having conviction that risks need to be managed when the Bank delivers a rate cut that historically aligns to emergency periods. It could condition Canadians to expect data misses to be met with large monetary responses. I was hoping this would be clearly addressed in the press conference. Unfortunately, it was not, and there was little indication on where the bar is set for another 50 bps in December
October 24, 2024
Trump Tariffs: A Trade Canada Doesn’t Want
The U.S. election is around the corner and it’s still anybody’s guess as to who will take the win. In this report, we’ll focus specifically on what Trump’s tariff proposal – notably a 10% across-the-board levy on U.S. imports – could mean for Canada’s economy.
October 21, 2024
Why I’m willing to eat crow on the Bank of Canada call
I find myself in an unusual position of advocating for a 25-basis point reduction in the Bank of Canada policy rate come Wednesday, when all bank peers have moved into the 50 basis point camp. When the Bloomberg poll was conducted in early September, not a single hand was up for 50 basis points. The dramatic shift in private sector sentiment in the past couple weeks occurred in the absence of Bank of Canada communication or signals. Wednesday will tell us how beholden the BoC is to market expectations.
October 16, 2024
Mortgage Rule Changes to Add Fuel to Canadian Housing Recovery
On December 15th, the federal government will roll out mortgage rule changes that make it easier to purchase a home for those taking out insured mortgages. These measures should offer a lift to Canadian home sales and prices next year. However, their impact will be blunted by an array of factors, including the affordability erosion induced by their implementation.
October 15, 2024
U.S. Presidential Elections and Stock Markets: It’s the Economy…Obviously
The U.S. Presidential election is just weeks away and investors are quickly turning their attention to the potential implications for financial markets. Would a Trump or Harris win be better for the stock market?
October 03, 2024
Racing to a Decarbonized Transport Future, with a Little Help from Government Incentives
Zero-emission vehicle adoption has been expanding across Canada, but more so in British Columbia and Québec where the market has benefited from years of consistent government support. In particular, provincial and federal rebates for consumers buying or leasing zero-emission vehicles have been instrumental in shoring up consumer demand.
September 16, 2024
Canada’s Business Dynamism in a Post-Pandemic Slump
Already on the downshift trajectory before COVID-19, Canada’s business dynamism is struggling to get back on its feet. A slow rate of net business entries and rise in bankruptcies resulted in deteriorating business growth. Companies, employing more than 20 and less than 500 employees are at the forefront of this downturn.
September 13, 2024
U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications
Elections matter for the economy, but financial markets are likely to be particularly attuned to the current election cycle given America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The make-up of Congress will determine how much of the future President’s agenda can be implemented. A divided Congress will likely force the next President to make significant concessions relative to their current platform proposals.
September 12, 2024
From Bad to Worse: Canada’s Productivity Slowdown is Everyone’s Problem
Canada has seen its productivity go from bad to worse since the pandemic. If Canada does not play to win on labour productivity, it risks a continued drop in living standards, worsening wage stagnation and a dangerous deterioration in public services.
September 05, 2024
Oversupplied GTA Condo Market a Headwind for Home Prices
GTA home sales levels have been subdued since the Bank of Canada began cutting rates in June. That said, sales growth should turn stronger, as the steep decline in yields gets more fully reflected in mortgage rates. Yet, even as sales growth heats up in coming months, average resale price growth in the GTA will probably trail by a considerable margin.
August 26, 2024
Dollars and Sense: Ready… Set... Cut! Cut! Cut!
The Fed is finally ready to cut interest rates, but questions remain on the speed and magnitude. We penciled in 25 basis points per meeting, with over 250 bps in cuts over this year and next. However, now that the Fed is confident that inflation will return to target, it will prioritize a little more of the other side of its dual mandate – developments in the job market – to ultimately determine the speed and size of rate cuts.
July 18, 2024
Policymakers Take Note: Population Growth is Easing in the Atlantic
Population growth remains incredibly strong in the Atlantic Region. However, it is easing from sky-high rates, just as other parts of the country appear to be holding firm. We anticipate this trend towards slower population growth in the Atlantic will persist, marking a very important development for a region where economic growth has broadly benefitted more from recent population inflows.
June 04, 2024
The $500 Billion Opportunity – Critical Minerals Development and Economic Reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples
The unprecedented heatwaves and extreme weather of the past year and a half has once again highlighted the need to fast-track action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.
