Latest Research
December 05, 2024
Economic Outlook Gets Trumped!
Starting points matter for a new administration. President Trump will be inheriting a strong economy that has been beating forecasts by a statistical mile! This works to the advantage of Republicans in 2025. Households have more cushion to absorb some economic pain from a tariff war compared to the economies of trading partners that are treading water.
November 20, 2024
Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge
Our analysis suggests that mortgage renewals are going to be less stressful for households than previously feared, with aggregate payments on Canadian mortgages poised to decline for balances outstanding as of mid-2024. The key factors behind this expected easing are lower interest rates and increased payments, which have helped to front-load the payment shock.
November 14, 2024
Ontario’s Industry-based Outlook: Navigating Turbulent Waters
Ontario’s industry-based GDP managed to increase at a slightly faster year-on-year pace than the rest of Canada in the first half this year. This is noteworthy given that the province has had the weakest housing market in the country and is home to rate-sensitive, highly indebted households.
November 07, 2024
Popping Canada’s Population Bubble
The federal government has hit pause on Canada’s booming population growth. Through planned reductions in both the pool of non-permanent residents (NPRs) and a scaling back in its annual permanent immigration targets, the country’s population growth is set to stall over the next two years.
November 06, 2024
Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump
As of 11 AM ET, Donald Trump has secured 277 of the 538 Electoral College votes, becoming the 47th president. While ballots are still being counted, President Trump also looks to have won the popular vote, which has not happened for a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
November 06, 2024
WATCH: Beata Caranci talk about Trump 2.0 and what it may mean for markets, the economy and Canada
Former Republican President Donald Trump is projected to have won a second term. MoneyTalk’s Kim Parlee speaks with Beata Caranci, Chief Economist at TD, and Kevin Hebner, Global Investment Strategist with TD Epoch, about the results and the implications for the economy, trade, and the markets.
November 01, 2024
Canada’s interest rate conundrum: Too much of a good thing
A call for a jumbo cut to head off mortgage reset rates must be assessed carefully. Surprisingly, roughly a quarter of mortgages will reset at a LOWER interest rate next year. For those renewing into higher rates, the shock might be milder than expected, given a 30% increase in home prices and wages. Years of debt repayments have also built equity room, which homeowners, including those with variable-rate-fixed-payments mortgages, can use to lower payments if needed.
October 25, 2024
Is 50 the New 25?
No, I’m not talking about age, although I’d greatly benefit from that view! I knew I would eat crow on Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) call with the high market pricing for a 50 basis point (bp) cut. There’s no regret in having conviction that risks need to be managed when the Bank delivers a rate cut that historically aligns to emergency periods. It could condition Canadians to expect data misses to be met with large monetary responses. I was hoping this would be clearly addressed in the press conference. Unfortunately, it was not, and there was little indication on where the bar is set for another 50 bps in December
October 24, 2024
Trump Tariffs: A Trade Canada Doesn’t Want
The U.S. election is around the corner and it’s still anybody’s guess as to who will take the win. In this report, we’ll focus specifically on what Trump’s tariff proposal – notably a 10% across-the-board levy on U.S. imports – could mean for Canada’s economy.
October 23, 2024
TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: Consumers Continue to Reduce Spending and Hunt for Bargains
The latest TD debit and credit card spending data shows little sign of strength, reinforcing a sluggish outlook for consumer spending. Aggregating the data to a quarterly average cuts through monthly volatility, reveals weak consumer spending in the third quarter. This supports our view that consumer activity remains in a lethargic state, likely resulting in sub-trend growth for personal consumption expenditures in Q3.
October 21, 2024
Why I’m willing to eat crow on the Bank of Canada call
I find myself in an unusual position of advocating for a 25-basis point reduction in the Bank of Canada policy rate come Wednesday, when all bank peers have moved into the 50 basis point camp. When the Bloomberg poll was conducted in early September, not a single hand was up for 50 basis points. The dramatic shift in private sector sentiment in the past couple weeks occurred in the absence of Bank of Canada communication or signals. Wednesday will tell us how beholden the BoC is to market expectations.
October 16, 2024
Mortgage Rule Changes to Add Fuel to Canadian Housing Recovery
On December 15th, the federal government will roll out mortgage rule changes that make it easier to purchase a home for those taking out insured mortgages. These measures should offer a lift to Canadian home sales and prices next year. However, their impact will be blunted by an array of factors, including the affordability erosion induced by their implementation.
October 15, 2024
U.S. Presidential Elections and Stock Markets: It’s the Economy…Obviously
The U.S. Presidential election is just weeks away and investors are quickly turning their attention to the potential implications for financial markets. Would a Trump or Harris win be better for the stock market?
October 03, 2024
Racing to a Decarbonized Transport Future, with a Little Help from Government Incentives
Zero-emission vehicle adoption has been expanding across Canada, but more so in British Columbia and Québec where the market has benefited from years of consistent government support. In particular, provincial and federal rebates for consumers buying or leasing zero-emission vehicles have been instrumental in shoring up consumer demand.
September 16, 2024
Canada’s Business Dynamism in a Post-Pandemic Slump
Already on the downshift trajectory before COVID-19, Canada’s business dynamism is struggling to get back on its feet. A slow rate of net business entries and rise in bankruptcies resulted in deteriorating business growth. Companies, employing more than 20 and less than 500 employees are at the forefront of this downturn.
September 13, 2024
U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications
Elections matter for the economy, but financial markets are likely to be particularly attuned to the current election cycle given America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The make-up of Congress will determine how much of the future President’s agenda can be implemented. A divided Congress will likely force the next President to make significant concessions relative to their current platform proposals.
September 12, 2024
From Bad to Worse: Canada’s Productivity Slowdown is Everyone’s Problem
Canada has seen its productivity go from bad to worse since the pandemic. If Canada does not play to win on labour productivity, it risks a continued drop in living standards, worsening wage stagnation and a dangerous deterioration in public services.
September 05, 2024
Oversupplied GTA Condo Market a Headwind for Home Prices
GTA home sales levels have been subdued since the Bank of Canada began cutting rates in June. That said, sales growth should turn stronger, as the steep decline in yields gets more fully reflected in mortgage rates. Yet, even as sales growth heats up in coming months, average resale price growth in the GTA will probably trail by a considerable margin.
August 26, 2024
Dollars and Sense: Ready… Set... Cut! Cut! Cut!
The Fed is finally ready to cut interest rates, but questions remain on the speed and magnitude. We penciled in 25 basis points per meeting, with over 250 bps in cuts over this year and next. However, now that the Fed is confident that inflation will return to target, it will prioritize a little more of the other side of its dual mandate – developments in the job market – to ultimately determine the speed and size of rate cuts.
July 18, 2024
Policymakers Take Note: Population Growth is Easing in the Atlantic
Population growth remains incredibly strong in the Atlantic Region. However, it is easing from sky-high rates, just as other parts of the country appear to be holding firm. We anticipate this trend towards slower population growth in the Atlantic will persist, marking a very important development for a region where economic growth has broadly benefitted more from recent population inflows.
June 04, 2024
The $500 Billion Opportunity – Critical Minerals Development and Economic Reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples
The unprecedented heatwaves and extreme weather of the past year and a half has once again highlighted the need to fast-track action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.
