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For Japan, Fiscal Credibility and Nominal Growth
A decisive election outcome earlier this month expands the government’s scope to pursue fiscal and industrial policy. A sustained recovery in the yen and in Japanese government bond yields hinges on successful execution of the government’s fiscal plan and building credibility. Above all, Japan’s fiscal strategy relies on stronger nominal GDP growth to lift revenues, creating asymmetric risks if growth underperforms.
March 05, 2026
Commentaries
Escalating Middle East Tensions Jolt Oil Markets
Oil markets have reacted swiftly to the latest escalation in Middle East tensions. At the time of writing, WTI crude prices have surged more than 5% to $70.50/bbl, marking the highest level since mid-June. Brent prices have moved up by a similar amount and are currently sitting at over $77/bbl. Currently, the Brent-WTI spread sits at $6.5 – about twice as high as its historical average – but still below the spread reached in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
March 02, 2026
Latest Research
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
I thought President Trump threw us curve balls last year, but the start of 2026 came completely out of left field. This presentation will cut thru the noise and review what’s new and not in the U.S. and Canadian outlooks. The main takeaway is that the U.S. economy has been unflappable, with the forecast materially revised up. In contrast, there’s little change to Canada’s narrative.
February 26, 2026
Latest Research
Shifting Tides in Canada-China Investment Relations
Canada and China recently entered a two-pronged strategic partnership. Tariff reductions will add an immediate layer of support to Canadian trade, while foreign investment benefits will unfold more slowly over time. The stock of Chinese direct investment in Canada could grow to around $90-100 billion over the next five years. This projection includes a cumulative $15 –25 billion of investment above a scenario in which no agreement was reached.
February 11, 2026
Commentaries
Japan One to Watch After Historic Election
Prime Minister Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) scored a landslide victory yesterday, winning a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house.
February 09, 2026
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
February 12, 2026
Updated Publications
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
December 11, 2025
Updated Publications
Commodities Quick-Take
November 27, 2025
Updated Publications
G-7 Inflation Update: Energy Prices Erode Spending Power
May 20, 2022
Previous
Next
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
February 12, 2026
Updated Publications
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
December 11, 2025
Updated Publications
Commodities Quick-Take
November 27, 2025
Updated Publications
G-7 Inflation Update: Energy Prices Erode Spending Power
May 20, 2022
View more updated publications
Latest Research
Latest Research
For Japan, Fiscal Credibility and Nominal Growth
March 05, 2026
Latest Research
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
February 26, 2026
Latest Research
Shifting Tides in Canada-China Investment Relations
February 11, 2026
Latest Research
The U.S. Dollar in 2025: Down, but not out
January 21, 2026
Previous
Next
Latest Research
For Japan, Fiscal Credibility and Nominal Growth
March 05, 2026
Latest Research
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
February 26, 2026
Latest Research
Shifting Tides in Canada-China Investment Relations
February 11, 2026
Latest Research
The U.S. Dollar in 2025: Down, but not out
January 21, 2026
View more latest research
Commentaries
Commentaries
Escalating Middle East Tensions Jolt Oil Markets
March 02, 2026
Commentaries
Japan One to Watch After Historic Election
February 09, 2026
Commentaries
Japan's Bond Market Sell-Off Spreads to the World
January 20, 2026
Commentaries
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
May 08, 2025
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Commentaries
Escalating Middle East Tensions Jolt Oil Markets
March 02, 2026
Commentaries
Japan One to Watch After Historic Election
February 09, 2026
Commentaries
Japan's Bond Market Sell-Off Spreads to the World
January 20, 2026
Commentaries
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
May 08, 2025
View more commentaries
