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China’s Economy Under Tariffs
The tariffs that remain in place on U.S. imports from China are going to be a headwind for China this year. For China, tariffs are what economists would call a demand shock, and the response is fairly simple – authorities can address the fallout from tariffs by putting in place measures to boost demand.
July 16, 2025
Updated Publications
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
Dramatic policy shifts in Washington continue to drive the narrative underlying the global economic outlook. It has been a wild ride since our March forecast, with the Liberation Day tariffs initially proving to be far higher than expected, only to be delayed. It remains highly uncertain what path U.S. tariff policy will take, the biggest wildcard in our forecast. Our global outlook is based on an assumed path for U.S. tariffs that balances the likelihood for tariff deals, with the administratio
June 17, 2025
Latest Research
The First 100 Days: Dazed and Confused
It’s been a whirlwind for forecasters, reminding me of the pandemic days when we were reviewing forecasts every couple of weeks to catch up to policy announcements without a historical reference for what was going to come next. We’ve learned a lot in the first 100 days: The first is that tariffs will remain the economic weapon of choice on a scale greater than anything in recent history. The second lesson is that regardless of whether the Administration back-peddles on initial tariff threats, th
May 23, 2025
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The policy shifts and flips in the first 100 days of the Trump administration have kept forecasters and financial markets on their toes. The administration has moved quickly on multiple fronts, with the unprecedented spike in U.S. tariffs having rippled within equity markets, treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, only now to move in the other direction despite ongoing risks on the tariff front. Once again, this quarter's Q&A is dominated by the potential impacts.
May 14, 2025
Latest Research
WATCH: Derek Burleton talks about the impacts of the U.S.-China trade truce on MoneyTalk
The U.S. and China announce a pause in their trade tensions, raising questions about what comes next for the global economy. TD Deputy Chief Economist Derek Burleton speaks with MoneyTalk’s Kim Parlee about its potential impact on the U.S. economy and what it may mean for Canada’s efforts to strike a deal with the Trump administration.
May 14, 2025
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 17, 2025
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
May 14, 2025
Updated Publications
Commodity Price Report: Stable Amidst Risks
May 16, 2024
Updated Publications
G-7 Inflation Update: Energy Prices Erode Spending Power
May 20, 2022
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Next
Updated Publications
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 17, 2025
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
May 14, 2025
Updated Publications
Commodity Price Report: Stable Amidst Risks
May 16, 2024
Updated Publications
G-7 Inflation Update: Energy Prices Erode Spending Power
May 20, 2022
View more updated publications
Latest Research
Latest Research
China’s Economy Under Tariffs
July 16, 2025
Latest Research
The First 100 Days: Dazed and Confused
May 23, 2025
Latest Research
WATCH: Derek Burleton talks about the impacts of the U.S.-China trade truce on MoneyTalk
May 14, 2025
Latest Research
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
May 06, 2025
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Next
Latest Research
China’s Economy Under Tariffs
July 16, 2025
Latest Research
The First 100 Days: Dazed and Confused
May 23, 2025
Latest Research
WATCH: Derek Burleton talks about the impacts of the U.S.-China trade truce on MoneyTalk
May 14, 2025
Latest Research
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
May 06, 2025
View more latest research
Commentaries
Commentaries
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
May 08, 2025
Commentaries
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
February 12, 2025
Commentaries
China Stimulus Announcements (September 2024)
September 26, 2024
Commentaries
OPEC+ Extends Cuts and Plans for Production Increases
June 03, 2024
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Commentaries
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
May 08, 2025
Commentaries
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
February 12, 2025
Commentaries
China Stimulus Announcements (September 2024)
September 26, 2024
Commentaries
OPEC+ Extends Cuts and Plans for Production Increases
June 03, 2024
View more commentaries
