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Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Iran-U.S. peace deal has sent oil prices down, but not to pre-war levels. Four months of supply backlogs will take time to normalize, and the impact of higher prices will still be felt in the global economy. Global growth has shifted into a lower gear, compounded by prospects for renewed central bank tightening.
June 18, 2026
Commentaries
U.S.–Iran Deal Signals De-escalation, But Implementation Risks Loom
The U.S. and Iran have reached a framework peace deal to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate 60 days of nuclear negotiations. A formal signing is expected later this week.
June 15, 2026
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WATCH: Derek Burleton discusses the Return of the Oil Shock (June 2026 Client Presentation)
In the June 2026 client presentation on the Return of the Oil Shock, Derek Burleton discusses how renewed geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions have driven a sharp shift in global energy markets.
June 12, 2026
Commentaries
Central Bank Preview – June 2026
The next few weeks will be busy for central bank rate announcements. With the Bank of Canada’s June 10 decision now behind us, attention turns to the ECB on June 11, the BoJ and RBA on June 16, the Fed on June 17, and the BoE on June 18. The key question is whether the latest inflation impulse is enough to restart a global tightening cycle, or whether most central banks use June to reinforce a higher-for-longer message while waiting for more evidence.
June 10, 2026
Commentaries
May PMIs Show Rising Risk of Stagflation
May’s PMI releases for key global economies point to a broad-based loss of momentum in global activity. Purchasing manager confidence in many economies reached multi-year lows in composite or services indices and major economies in Europe registered significant downside surprises. At the same time, input cost pressures have reignited, reaching multi-year highs. Output price indexes remain elevated too, though some show slight moderation as companies appear to absorb some of the cost increases. T
May 21, 2026
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 18, 2026
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
May 19, 2026
Updated Publications
Commodities Quick-Take
November 27, 2025
Updated Publications
G-7 Inflation Update: Energy Prices Erode Spending Power
May 20, 2022
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Updated Publications
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 18, 2026
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
May 19, 2026
Updated Publications
Commodities Quick-Take
November 27, 2025
Updated Publications
G-7 Inflation Update: Energy Prices Erode Spending Power
May 20, 2022
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Latest Research
Latest Research
Global Inflation Update
May 13, 2026
Latest Research
What Happens in Japan May Not Stay in Japan
March 31, 2026
Latest Research
For Japan, Fiscal Credibility and Nominal Growth
March 05, 2026
Latest Research
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
February 26, 2026
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Latest Research
Global Inflation Update
May 13, 2026
Latest Research
What Happens in Japan May Not Stay in Japan
March 31, 2026
Latest Research
For Japan, Fiscal Credibility and Nominal Growth
March 05, 2026
Latest Research
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
February 26, 2026
View more latest research
Commentaries
Commentaries
U.S.–Iran Deal Signals De-escalation, But Implementation Risks Loom
June 15, 2026
Commentaries
Central Bank Preview – June 2026
June 10, 2026
Commentaries
May PMIs Show Rising Risk of Stagflation
May 21, 2026
Commentaries
Escalating Middle East Tensions Jolt Oil Markets
March 02, 2026
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Commentaries
U.S.–Iran Deal Signals De-escalation, But Implementation Risks Loom
June 15, 2026
Commentaries
Central Bank Preview – June 2026
June 10, 2026
Commentaries
May PMIs Show Rising Risk of Stagflation
May 21, 2026
Commentaries
Escalating Middle East Tensions Jolt Oil Markets
March 02, 2026
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