Forecasts
August 26, 2024
Dollars and Sense: Ready… Set... Cut! Cut! Cut!
The Fed is finally ready to cut interest rates, but questions remain on the speed and magnitude. We penciled in 25 basis points per meeting, with over 250 bps in cuts over this year and next. However, now that the Fed is confident that inflation will return to target, it will prioritize a little more of the other side of its dual mandate – developments in the job market – to ultimately determine the speed and size of rate cuts.
August 14, 2024
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
What a difference a quarter can make. Financial markets have done a 180 relative to our prior Q&A. From focusing on the risks of persistent U.S. inflation and punting out rate cuts largely into 2025, to now worrying that the Fed is behind the curve and has not cut fast enough!
June 26, 2024
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Mediocre Second Half Sales Recovery on Deck
As we had anticipated, it’s been a quiet spring selling season. Elevated borrowing costs and Bank of Canada uncertainty have kept buyers on the sidelines through May, leaving Canadian home sales at the lower end of their pre-Covid levels.
June 20, 2024
Long-Term Forecast
After a better-than-expected year for economic growth in 2023, the U.S. economy is forecast to slow to a below-trend pace in 2024 as the impact of higher interest rates weighs on demand. Following an economic slowdown in 2023 and 2024, Canadian output is expected to rebound in 2025 and 2026.
June 19, 2024
Provincial Economic Forecast
Provincial economies are performing broadly as expected. Activity is likely to remain subpar across most of Canada, as regional economies continue to absorb the impact of elevated rates. We still see scope for growth outperformances in the Atlantic Region and Prairies, with somewhat weaker expansions likely in Ontario, B.C and Quebec.
June 18, 2024
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
“Let’s just enjoy the moment” was Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem’s, response when questioned about further rate cuts immediately after cutting the policy rate for the first time this cycle. The policymaker clearly wanted to focus on the good news for an economy coping with the highest policy rate in over twenty years. The sentiment applies to the global economic outlook.
