Forecasts
August 19, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The global economy and financial markets continue to be shaped by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the AI investment boom, and shifts in U.S. tariff policy. This quarter's Q&A explores how these forces are influencing the economic outlook, from energy-market risks and AI-related financial vulnerabilities to rising bond yields and evolving expectations for monetary policy. We also explore the durability of U.S. economic outperformance, the resilience of labour markets and household finances, and the outlook for the Canadian dollar.
June 22, 2026
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to run slightly above its long-run trend rate of growth in 2026/27, aided by expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, some easing in regulation, and further investments in AI. Canadian economic growth is expected to bounce back in 2026 and into 2027 after a dismal start to the year. However, the pace of recovery is due to be held back by slower population growth and the impact of U.S. tariffs on export demand and business and consumer sentiment.
June 19, 2026
Provincial Economic Forecast
The soft start to the year for the Canadian economy appears broad-based, underpinning 2026 real GDP growth downgrades across provinces, particularly in Ontario, B.C. and parts of the Atlantic. The picture is better in per capita terms, with positive growth expected across all provinces this year, led by Newfoundland and Labrador.
June 18, 2026
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Iran-U.S. peace deal has sent oil prices down, but not to pre-war levels. Four months of supply backlogs will take time to normalize, and the impact of higher prices will still be felt in the global economy. Global growth has shifted into a lower gear, compounded by prospects for renewed central bank tightening.
April 16, 2026
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
The Iran conflict has triggered a major energy supply shock, pushing oil prices meaningfully higher and extending the inflation impulse beyond what was initially expected. Central banks on both sides of the border are likely to look through the supply shock. Provided a longer-term peace deal is reached in the coming weeks, we still see a narrow window for the Fed to deliver on two more rate cuts in Q4.
February 26, 2026
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
I thought President Trump threw us curve balls last year, but the start of 2026 came completely out of left field. This presentation will cut thru the noise and review what’s new and not in the U.S. and Canadian outlooks. The main takeaway is that the U.S. economy has been unflappable, with the forecast materially revised up. In contrast, there’s little change to Canada’s narrative.
December 04, 2025
The Days Of Our Lives
Yes, the title of this presentation comes from a famous soap opera. It’s appropriate to depict the past year, full of economic and political drama. We’re on the cusp of closing out 2025, a dramatic 365 days marked by the shifting sands in government policies and corporate behaviors. And this final quarter of the year has brought forward more pivots on both sides of the border that will keep us glued to the next episode. My only hope is that the economic drama doesn’t run sixty-three seasons like the soap opera!
September 02, 2025
Tails We Win, Heads You Lose
The U.S. has been disruptor of itself. Whether it be to its own business cost structures and trade flows with tariff policies, or labor force dynamics with uncertainty and immigration policies. And yet, it’s paying a lower economic cost relative to peer countries. That gave rise to the title: Tails we win, heads you lose. I’ll explore the resilient features of the domestic economy, making sure to distinguish the narratives we hear from the data we see.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
November 01, 2024
Canada’s interest rate conundrum: Too much of a good thing
A call for a jumbo cut to head off mortgage reset rates must be assessed carefully. Surprisingly, roughly a quarter of mortgages will reset at a LOWER interest rate next year. For those renewing into higher rates, the shock might be milder than expected, given a 30% increase in home prices and wages. Years of debt repayments have also built equity room, which homeowners, including those with variable-rate-fixed-payments mortgages, can use to lower payments if needed.
October 25, 2024
Is 50 the New 25?
No, I’m not talking about age, although I’d greatly benefit from that view! I knew I would eat crow on Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) call with the high market pricing for a 50 basis point (bp) cut. There’s no regret in having conviction that risks need to be managed when the Bank delivers a rate cut that historically aligns to emergency periods. It could condition Canadians to expect data misses to be met with large monetary responses. I was hoping this would be clearly addressed in the press conference. Unfortunately, it was not, and there was little indication on where the bar is set for another 50 bps in December
