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Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (May 2025)
Headline CPI inflation for May came in at 1.7% year-on-year (y/y), maintaining the pace from April and in line with expectations for a 1.7% y/y print. The deceleration was due to a slowdown in rent inflation (4.5% y/y vs. 5.2% in April) and falling prices for travel tours (-0.2% y/y).
June 24, 2025
Economy
TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: The Damage is Done
The latest TD Spend data suggest that Canadian consumers tightened their purse strings in the second quarter of 2025. We expect real consumer spending to be essentially flat for the quarter, with weaker momentum likely building into Q3.
June 24, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
Provincial economies across the country benefitted from a sharp rise in exports in Q1 due to tariff-front running, but the near-term trade picture is indeed rocky. Ontario and Quebec will see disproportionate impacts from U.S. tariffs on the steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors. We’re also expecting that additional U.S. levies on copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber will be applied. Our assumption of a gradual easing in U.S. tariff rates by year end means that the stage is set
June 18, 2025
Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
Dramatic policy shifts in Washington continue to drive the narrative underlying the global economic outlook. It has been a wild ride since our March forecast, with the Liberation Day tariffs initially proving to be far higher than expected, only to be delayed. It remains highly uncertain what path U.S. tariff policy will take, the biggest wildcard in our forecast. Our global outlook is based on an assumed path for U.S. tariffs that balances the likelihood for tariff deals, with the administratio
June 17, 2025
Updated Publications
Long-Term Forecast
Canadian economic growth is expected to run below trend in 2025 and 2026, before finding greater balance in 2027. Slowing population growth and the impact of tariffs on business and consumer sentiment are the drivers of lower growth. Consumer spending is expected to act as a drag on the economy as higher prices cut into spending power. This has the unemployment rate moving above its long-run level until 2027.
June 17, 2025
Updated Publications
Support Measures Cap 2025 Provincial Budget Season
Provincial governments faced the difficult task of tabling their annual budgets amid mounting headwinds from U.S. trade policies. Provincial budget season revealed expectations for weaker economic growth and government revenues across the board, manifesting in provincial bottom lines.
June 10, 2025
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
June 20, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
June 18, 2025
Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 17, 2025
Updated Publications
Long-Term Forecast
June 17, 2025
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Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
June 20, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
June 18, 2025
Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 17, 2025
Updated Publications
Long-Term Forecast
June 17, 2025
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Latest Research
Economy
TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: The Damage is Done
June 24, 2025
Latest Research
Canadian Federal Housing Plan: The 500k Marathon
June 03, 2025
Latest Research
North American Auto Outlook 2025: Trade Headwinds to Stall Industry
May 28, 2025
Media
WATCH: Andrew Hencic discusses the government's new economic agenda after King Charles III's throne speech on MoneyTalk
May 27, 2025
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Next
Economy
TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: The Damage is Done
June 24, 2025
Latest Research
Canadian Federal Housing Plan: The 500k Marathon
June 03, 2025
Latest Research
North American Auto Outlook 2025: Trade Headwinds to Stall Industry
May 28, 2025
Media
WATCH: Andrew Hencic discusses the government's new economic agenda after King Charles III's throne speech on MoneyTalk
May 27, 2025
View more latest research
Commentaries
Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (May 2025)
June 24, 2025
Consumer
Canadian Retail Sales (April 2025)
June 20, 2025
Real Estate
Canadian Existing Home Sales (May 2025)
June 16, 2025
Real Estate
Canadian Housing Starts (May 2025)
June 16, 2025
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Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (May 2025)
June 24, 2025
Consumer
Canadian Retail Sales (April 2025)
June 20, 2025
Real Estate
Canadian Existing Home Sales (May 2025)
June 16, 2025
Real Estate
Canadian Housing Starts (May 2025)
June 16, 2025
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