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U.S. Employment (April 2025)
The U.S. economy added 177k jobs in April, slightly above the consensus forecast of 135k. Revisions for the prior two months subtracted a total of 58k jobs. Smoothing through the volatility, non-farm payrolls averaged 155k over the last three-months
May 02, 2025
Latest Research
The Non-Starter Playbook of the Mar-a-Lago Accord
The Mar-a-Lago Accord is a blueprint to recreate the Plaza- Accord-style intervention of decades prior, designed to correct the U.S. trade deficit through deliberate dollar weakening. The current composition of the U.S. trade deficit, particularly the concentration with China, sheds light on the administration's rationale for tariffs.
May 01, 2025
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - U.S. Dollar: The Great Unwind
The U.S. dollar has hit a wall in 2025. After appreciating by over 16% between 2021 and 2024, the trade-weighted dollar has given back over a quarter of those gains in just four months (Chart 1). Many investors are questioning the ability for the U.S. economy to maintain its exceptional global growth position as uncertainty lights up the airwaves.
April 29, 2025
Latest Research
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
The U.S. administration imposed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, dropping all countries (excluding China) to a flat 10% tariff. This comes in addition to the sectoral tariffs, including steel & aluminum and finished autos & parts. We estimate the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be 26%, the highest level in over a century. However, this is skewed by the outsized 145% tariff on China.
April 16, 2025
Trending
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
April 02, 2025
Trending
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
March 27, 2025
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Weekly Bottom Line
May 02, 2025
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Long-Term Forecast
March 21, 2025
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State Economic Forecast
March 20, 2025
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U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
March 18, 2025
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Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
May 02, 2025
Updated Publications
Long-Term Forecast
March 21, 2025
Updated Publications
State Economic Forecast
March 20, 2025
Updated Publications
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
March 18, 2025
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Latest Research
Latest Research
The Non-Starter Playbook of the Mar-a-Lago Accord
May 01, 2025
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - U.S. Dollar: The Great Unwind
April 29, 2025
Latest Research
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
April 16, 2025
Latest Research
In Wealth We Trust: U.S. Household Balance Sheet Update
March 13, 2025
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Latest Research
The Non-Starter Playbook of the Mar-a-Lago Accord
May 01, 2025
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - U.S. Dollar: The Great Unwind
April 29, 2025
Latest Research
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
April 16, 2025
Latest Research
In Wealth We Trust: U.S. Household Balance Sheet Update
March 13, 2025
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Commentaries
Trending
U.S. Employment (April 2025)
May 02, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. Vehicle Sales (April 2025)
May 02, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (April 2025)
May 01, 2025
Commentaries
Real GDP (Q1-2025, advance estimate)
April 30, 2025
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Trending
U.S. Employment (April 2025)
May 02, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. Vehicle Sales (April 2025)
May 02, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (April 2025)
May 01, 2025
Commentaries
Real GDP (Q1-2025, advance estimate)
April 30, 2025
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