Commentaries
September 17, 2025
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (September 17, 2025)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate to 2.50%, in line with market expectations. The statement noted that “underlying inflation is running around 2.5%” and that the removal of retaliatory tariffs on imports from the U.S. “will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward”. One notable inclusion was CPI excluding taxes once again receiving a call out (2.5% year-on-year).
September 15, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (August 2025)
Canadian existing home sales increased 1.1% month-on-month (m/m) in August, marking a slowdown from July's 3.9% m/m increase. Gains in Quebec (+3.1% m/m), B.C. (+2.4% m/m) and Alberta (+2.2% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, sales were flat in Ontario.
September 05, 2025
Canadian Employment (August 2025)
July and August's job losses have now more than reversed June's outsized gain, and the Canadian economy has lost 39k jobs since January. The unemployment rate has risen half a percentage point over the same time period. It could be worse though, a slowdown in labour force growth is keeping the unemployment rate from rising too high, despite weak labour demand.
September 04, 2025
Canadian Merchandise Trade (July 2025)
Canada's trade deficit narrowed from a revised $6.0 billion in June to $4.9 billion in July. As expected, Canadian exports continue to recover from April's five-year low. The combination of rising exports and falling imports on the month should allow net trade to bounce-back after an exceptionally weak showing in the second quarter, providing a positive tailwind to total GDP growth.
July 21, 2025
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2025 Q2)
Business and consumer optimism remains subdued compared to late 2024, with firms anticipating weaker sales and consumers planning to cut back spending. In this defensive environment, we maintain our view for a weak Q2.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Imposes 25% Auto Tariffs
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 26, 2025
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2025)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2025 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). The survey was taken between September 2024 and January 2025, meaning that it misses the bulk of the more recent ramp up in tariff threats by President Trump.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
