Commentaries
July 21, 2025
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2025 Q2)
Business and consumer optimism remains subdued compared to late 2024, with firms anticipating weaker sales and consumers planning to cut back spending. In this defensive environment, we maintain our view for a weak Q2.
July 16, 2025
Canadian Housing Starts (June 2025)
June's housing starts surpassed expectations, helping second quarter starts growth notch a record gain. This should provide a near-term tailwind for residential investment, buffering weakness in other areas of the Canadian economy that have been put under stress in the past few months.
July 15, 2025
Canadian Consumer Price Index (June 2025)
Another month of the inflation data coming in as expected. Top line price growth continues to be restrained by weak readings for gasoline. Moreover, "geopolitical conflicts" were cited as propping up crude prices in June, a factor that faded mid-month and should provide some offset in July.
July 15, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (June 2025)
Canadian existing home sales advanced for a third consecutive month in June, increasing by 2.8% month-on-month (m/m). Gains in B.C. (+5.8% m/m) and Ontario (+5.3% m/m) helped lift national sales, while activity dipped in Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland.
June 04, 2025
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (June 4, 2025)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate at 2.75% for the second consecutive announcement.
In justifying its stand-pat decision the Bank pointed to tariff uncertainty remaining high, the economy is softer, but not sharpy weaker, and there has been some unexpected firmness in inflation. In their calculus these changes netted out to keeping a wait-and-see approach in place as they wait for more information on U.S. trade policy and its impacts.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Imposes 25% Auto Tariffs
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 26, 2025
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2025)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2025 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). The survey was taken between September 2024 and January 2025, meaning that it misses the bulk of the more recent ramp up in tariff threats by President Trump.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
