Commentaries
June 24, 2025
Canadian Consumer Price Index (May 2025)
Headline CPI inflation for May came in at 1.7% year-on-year (y/y), maintaining the pace from April and in line with expectations for a 1.7% y/y print. The deceleration was due to a slowdown in rent inflation (4.5% y/y vs. 5.2% in April) and falling prices for travel tours (-0.2% y/y).
June 16, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (May 2025)
Canadian existing home sales increased 3.6% month-on-month (m/m) in May, building on April's modest 0.8% m/m gain. Gains in Ontario (+10% m/m) and Alberta (+4% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, sales dipped in B.C. and Quebec (both down 0.5% m/m).
June 06, 2025
Canadian Employment (May 2025)
Canada's labour market continued to soften in May. The unemployment rate continued to rise, and the impact of U.S. tariffs is clearly evident in industry and regional patterns. Wage gains were steady in May but have cooled from a roughly 5% pace a year ago.
June 04, 2025
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (June 4, 2025)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate at 2.75% for the second consecutive announcement.
In justifying its stand-pat decision the Bank pointed to tariff uncertainty remaining high, the economy is softer, but not sharpy weaker, and there has been some unexpected firmness in inflation. In their calculus these changes netted out to keeping a wait-and-see approach in place as they wait for more information on U.S. trade policy and its impacts.
April 07, 2025
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2025 Q1)
According to the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (BOS), Canadian business sentiment dropped almost a full point in the first quarter of 2025 (to -2.14), reversing five consecutive quarters of improvement.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Imposes 25% Auto Tariffs
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 26, 2025
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2025)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2025 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). The survey was taken between September 2024 and January 2025, meaning that it misses the bulk of the more recent ramp up in tariff threats by President Trump.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
