Commentaries
February 21, 2025
Canadian Retail Sales (December 2024)
Retail activity ended the year with a bang. Given the dampening effect of the GST/HST tax break on nominal figures, real sales provide a better measure of consumer activity, pointing to a swift rebound in spending behaviour. As a result, we expect consumption growth for Q4 2024 to reach around 4% (annualized), pushing GDP growth above trend.
February 18, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (January 2025)
Canadian home sales and prices had gained some momentum since the Bank of Canada began cutting rates last May. However, listings jumped in January and CREA noted that last month's sales weakness was concentrated in the last week of the month.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 31, 2025
Canadian Monthly GDP (November 2024)
It's steady as she goes for domestic growth developments, as recent data comes in more or less in line with expectations. With November GDP data and December guidance, growth in the fourth quarter is tracking on point with the Bank of Canada's (BoC) most recent projections (1.8% q/q annualized).
January 29, 2025
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (January 29, 2025)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) slowed down the pace of rate cuts, with a 25 basis point move today, bringing the policy rate to 3.0%. It also stated that it will end Quantitative Tightening (QT) and restart asset purchases in March - This isn't a stimulative policy but rather helps match liquidity with the size of the economy.
January 20, 2025
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2024 Q4)
According to the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (BOS), Canadian business sentiment remained below its historical average though it saw "signs of emerging optimism" in the fourth quarter of 2024. The BOS indicator, a statistical summary of survey results, was -1.18 in 2024 Q4 (vs. -2.29% in 2024 Q3), marking a fifth quarter of improvement.
December 12, 2024
Canadian Household Balance Sheet (2024 Q4)
Canadian household wealth increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by gains in financial assets. Further growth is anticipated in Q4 as North American equity markets continue to reach new record highs. An additional tailwind should come from rising home prices as consecutive 50-basis-point cuts from the Bank of Canada fuel a re-acceleration in housing activity.
