Commentaries
September 05, 2025
Canadian Employment (August 2025)
July and August's job losses have now more than reversed June's outsized gain, and the Canadian economy has lost 39k jobs since January. The unemployment rate has risen half a percentage point over the same time period. It could be worse though, a slowdown in labour force growth is keeping the unemployment rate from rising too high, despite weak labour demand.
September 04, 2025
Canadian Merchandise Trade (July 2025)
Canada's trade deficit narrowed from a revised $6.0 billion in June to $4.9 billion in July. As expected, Canadian exports continue to recover from April's five-year low. The combination of rising exports and falling imports on the month should allow net trade to bounce-back after an exceptionally weak showing in the second quarter, providing a positive tailwind to total GDP growth.
August 29, 2025
Canadian Quarterly GDP (Q2 2025)
The Canadian economy contracted in the second quarter, as exports were walloped by the one-two punch of weaker U.S. demand and the unwind of a tariff-front running induced surge in Q1. Final domestic demand held up much better than overall GDP (+3.5% q/q), buoyed by a surprisingly strong, broad-based surge in consumer spending and one-time equipment import for an offshore oil field in Newfoundland and Labrador.
August 18, 2025
Canadian Housing Starts (July 2025)
In July, starts rose to their highest level since September 2022. The hearty trend in homebuilding is being underpinned by the rental market, where gains have likely been supported by powerful population growth in the past and government financing programs targeting this sector.
August 15, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (July 2025)
Canadian existing home sales advanced for a fourth consecutive month in July, rising 3.8% month-on-month (m/m). Gains in Ontario (+7.7% m/m), B.C. (+3.9% m/m) and Alberta (+2.6% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, monthly declines were recorded in Quebec, Manitoba, and parts of the Atlantic region.
July 30, 2025
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (July 30, 2025)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate at 2.75%, in line with market expectations. The outlook for the economy under the current tariff regime shows a modest recovery starting in the third quarter, but with an economy expanding below trend. This leaves the door open for future rate cut(s) under stable inflation.
July 21, 2025
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2025 Q2)
Business and consumer optimism remains subdued compared to late 2024, with firms anticipating weaker sales and consumers planning to cut back spending. In this defensive environment, we maintain our view for a weak Q2.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Imposes 25% Auto Tariffs
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 26, 2025
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2025)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2025 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). The survey was taken between September 2024 and January 2025, meaning that it misses the bulk of the more recent ramp up in tariff threats by President Trump.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
