Commentaries
January 19, 2026
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2025 Q4)
Business sentiment improved modestly in Q4, but closed 2025 below last year's levels, with the Bank of Canada characterizing the mood as "subdued". Firms are expecting stronger demand in 2026, however export sales growth expectations remain muted.
January 19, 2026
Canadian Consumer Price Index (December 2025)
Headline CPI inflation ticked up slightly to 2.4% year-on-year (y/y) in December, slightly above consensus expectations. The acceleration was driven by the comparison to lower prices during the federal government's temporary sales tax holiday a year earlier.
December 23, 2025
Canadian Monthly GDP (October 2025)
After an upside surprise to growth in the third quarter, today's GDP data together with November guidance indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth is tracking roughly flat. The expectation is that overall economic growth will remain subdued over the next quarter or two before gradually recovering over the medium-term.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Imposes 25% Auto Tariffs
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 26, 2025
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2025)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2025 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). The survey was taken between September 2024 and January 2025, meaning that it misses the bulk of the more recent ramp up in tariff threats by President Trump.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
