Commentaries
March 10, 2026
Global Financial Conditions Tighten in Face of Middle East Conflict
Financial markets have whipsawed as hope emerged for the fighting between the U.S., Israel and Iran to cease. Financial conditions had tightened since the start of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28th. The prospect of the conflict continuing to simmer, or reigniting again, risks a steeper tightening in financial conditions that, together with a large energy supply shock, could result in weaker economic growth and rising inflation – often referred to as stagflation.
March 02, 2026
Escalating Middle East Tensions Jolt Oil Markets
Oil markets have reacted swiftly to the latest escalation in Middle East tensions. At the time of writing, WTI crude prices have surged more than 5% to $70.50/bbl, marking the highest level since mid-June. Brent prices have moved up by a similar amount and are currently sitting at over $77/bbl. Currently, the Brent-WTI spread sits at $6.5 – about twice as high as its historical average – but still below the spread reached in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
February 27, 2026
Canadian Quarterly GDP (Q4 2025)
The Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% (quarter/quarter, annualized) in Q4, below the Bank of Canada's projections for a flat reading and consensus forecast for a more muted decline of -0.2% q/q. For 2025 as a whole, the Canadian economy grew 1.7%, a step down from 2024's 2% pace.
February 26, 2026
Buy Canada: Foreign direct investment in Canada reached the highest level since 2007, while Canada's outward investment flows cooled in 2025
Canada’s balance of international payments data release has two main components: the current account (trade in goods and services, income flows, and transfers) and the financial account (portfolio and direct investment flows). We focus here on the latter – direct investment – the channel most closely associated with long-term economic integration, gaining influence and productive capacity in other economies.
February 25, 2026
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2026)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2026 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). This year's survey offers a clearer view of investment plans compared to last year's, as the sampling period now better captures the trade headwinds and pressures affecting businesses and government over the last year.
February 20, 2026
U.S. Supreme Court Rules Against Broad-Based Country Specific Tariffs Under IEEPA
On February 20th, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it would be upholding the lower courts rulings, which found the administration's use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to be unlawful.
February 18, 2026
Canadian Existing Home Sales (January 2026)
Canadian existing home sales declined 5.8% month-on-month (m/m) in January. Sales were lower in every province last month, with steep drops recorded in Manitoba (-10.6% m/m), Ontario (-8.9%) and B.C. (-8.2%). Meanwhile sales were down by about 7% (simple average) across the Atlantic.
February 17, 2026
Canadian Consumer Price Index (January 2026)
Headline CPI inflation cooled a tick in January to 2.3% year-on-year (y/y) one tenth lower than consensus expectations. Even so, inflation was boosted by comparison to lower prices during the federal government's temporary sales tax holiday from mid-December 2024 to mid-February 2025.
February 06, 2026
Canadian Employment (January 2026)
Was this good news or bad news? The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to 6.5% - its lowest level since September 2024. However, the economy still shed 25K jobs. It was thanks to an even larger decline in the labour force that the overall job market got tighter.
February 05, 2026
Same, but Less: Prime Minister Carney Announces New EV Rebate and Auto Sector Strategy
On February 5th, Prime Minister Carney and Industry Minister Melanie Joly announced a revised strategy aimed at decarbonizing the transportation sector and supporting Canada's fledgling EV manufacturing industry. Many of the measures announced were similar to what was in place under Trudeau, but simply less stringent and/or less generous versions of those previous policies.
January 19, 2026
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2025 Q4)
Business sentiment improved modestly in Q4, but closed 2025 below last year's levels, with the Bank of Canada characterizing the mood as "subdued". Firms are expecting stronger demand in 2026, however export sales growth expectations remain muted.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Imposes 25% Auto Tariffs
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
