Commentaries
March 17, 2025
Canadian Housing Starts (February 2025)
Housing starts surprised market consensus to the downside in February and have dropped 5% compared to their fourth quarter average so far in Q1. This raises the risk that homebuilding will downwardly pressure residential investment and GDP growth in the first quarter.
February 28, 2025
Canadian Quarterly GDP (Q4)
The Canadian economy topped expectations in the fourth quarter of last year, advancing 2.6% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q, AR). The third quarter was also revised higher (+2.2% q/q from +1.0 q/q). Stripping out external factors, final domestic demand came in at a very strong 2.4% q/q. The flash estimate for January showed a very strong 0.3% monthly increase.
February 26, 2025
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2025)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2025 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). The survey was taken between September 2024 and January 2025, meaning that it misses the bulk of the more recent ramp up in tariff threats by President Trump.
February 21, 2025
Canadian Retail Sales (December 2024)
Retail activity ended the year with a bang. Given the dampening effect of the GST/HST tax break on nominal figures, real sales provide a better measure of consumer activity, pointing to a swift rebound in spending behaviour. As a result, we expect consumption growth for Q4 2024 to reach around 4% (annualized), pushing GDP growth above trend.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 20, 2025
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2024 Q4)
According to the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (BOS), Canadian business sentiment remained below its historical average though it saw "signs of emerging optimism" in the fourth quarter of 2024. The BOS indicator, a statistical summary of survey results, was -1.18 in 2024 Q4 (vs. -2.29% in 2024 Q3), marking a fifth quarter of improvement.
