Commentaries
October 16, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (September 2025)
After bouncing off their early-year lows from April – August, growth in Canadian home sales appeared to take a breather in September. However, for the third quarter, sales were up 7%, which will support overall economic growth via a boost to residential investment.
October 16, 2025
Canadian Housing Starts (September 2025)
Canadian housing starts increased 14% month-on-month (m/m) in September to an elevated 279.2k units, almost fully bouncing back from the 17% m/m drop in August. Stripping away monthly volatility, the six-month moving average of starts increased 4.1% m/m to 277.1k units.
October 10, 2025
Canadian Employment (September 2025)
Well, that's quite the surprise. Canada's job market looks like it recovered all of August's losses in September. Importantly, even for a noisy data series, this is a strong result. That said, it's important to note that the unemployment rate remained unchanged as the labour force jumped by an even greater amount. Considering population growth slowed to 28k people, the biggest surprise was a large influx of new workers despite a weak job market.
October 07, 2025
Canadian Merchandise Trade (August 2025)
Canada's export-gaining streak reversed course in August wiping out most of the progress we've seen since April. With two months of data in the quarter, and despite a weak month for exports, net trade is still expected to make a modest contribution to Q3 GDP growth after an exceptionally weak showing the quarter prior.
September 17, 2025
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (September 17, 2025)
The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its policy rate to 2.50%, in line with market expectations. The statement noted that “underlying inflation is running around 2.5%” and that the removal of retaliatory tariffs on imports from the U.S. “will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward”. One notable inclusion was CPI excluding taxes once again receiving a call out (2.5% year-on-year).
July 21, 2025
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2025 Q2)
Business and consumer optimism remains subdued compared to late 2024, with firms anticipating weaker sales and consumers planning to cut back spending. In this defensive environment, we maintain our view for a weak Q2.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Imposes 25% Auto Tariffs
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 26, 2025
Capital and Repair Expenditure Survey (2025)
Statistics Canada released the results of its latest 2025 survey of non-residential capital and repair expenditures (a.k.a., the CAPEX survey). The survey was taken between September 2024 and January 2025, meaning that it misses the bulk of the more recent ramp up in tariff threats by President Trump.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
