Government Finance & Policy
March 21, 2025
2025 Manitoba Budget
Manitoba’s budget deficit is forecast to shrink to 0.8% of GDP this fiscal year, while both the ongoing shortfall and robust capital spending lift its debt burden by 0.8 ppts. However, those forecasts were made with relatively strong real GDP growth assumptions, which are threatened by the U.S.-Canada trade war.
March 20, 2025
2025 Saskatchewan Budget
Saskatchewan is back to projecting surpluses after a brief dip into the red ink last fiscal year. As it stands, Saskatchewan is the only province expecting a surplus for the year ahead. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to creep up in the year ahead, but the Province will likely retain its position as one of the least indebted coast-to-coast.
March 05, 2025
2025 British Columbia Budget
The B.C. government has tabled a generally restrained spending plan as new tariff risks inject considerable uncertainty into the province’s outlook. Downwardly-revised economic and revenue growth will put B.C.’s finances deeper into red ink. The budget deficit for FY 2025/26 is forecast to reach $10.9 billion – or 2.5% of GDP – with the cumulative deficit over the three-year planning horizon over $8 billion higher than the Budget tabled a year ago.
March 04, 2025
Cradle to grave: Lifecycle emissions of electric versus gasoline vehicles in Canada
Battery electric vehicles have significantly lower lifecycle emissions than gasoline vehicles. While electric vehicles start off with a higher carbon footprint due to emissions associated with battery production, fuel-related emissions of gasoline vehicles are far greater and drive the emissions gap between the two vehicle types.
February 18, 2025
2025 Nova Scotia Budget
Unexpectedly strong revenues drove what’s now expected to be an $80 million surplus for Nova Scotia in FY 2024/25, a marked difference from the near $500 million shortfall projected in last year’s budget. Still, this black ink is not expected to last, with the province forecasting an $697 million shortfall (before a newly introduced $200 million contingency fund is factored in) in FY 2025/26.
January 06, 2025
Climate Policy in a 2nd Trump Term – What’s on the Chopping Block?
Climate policy is set to take a major U-turn under Donald Trump’s second term. The president-elect will likely prioritize rolling back regulatory powers and direct spending that expanded significantly under President Biden.
December 16, 2024
2024 Federal Economic Statement
It was a wild day in Canadian politics, with the Finance Minister resigning ahead of the Fall Economic Statement (FES). This did not preclude the FES from being tabled, giving us some window into the government’s economic plan in the face of a second Trump administration. However, political uncertainty looms large with a significant cabinet shuffle and an election looming.
November 07, 2024
Popping Canada’s Population Bubble
The federal government has hit pause on Canada’s booming population growth. Through planned reductions in both the pool of non-permanent residents (NPRs) and a scaling back in its annual permanent immigration targets, the country’s population growth is set to stall over the next two years.
October 30, 2024
2024 Ontario Fall Fiscal Update: Staying the Course on Deficit Reduction
In its fall fiscal update, the Ontario government maintained its path back to balance and formally announced previously-telegraphed measures (rebate cheques, extension of the gas and fuel tax cuts) that will support household incomes in the coming year. However, the road back to black ink will remain challenging, as it will require spending growth to be held at a very modest pace. Fortunately, the government is benefitting from a better starting point, with this year’s deficit now pegged at $6.6 billion, versus about $10 billion in the spring budget.
October 03, 2024
Racing to a Decarbonized Transport Future, with a Little Help from Government Incentives
Zero-emission vehicle adoption has been expanding across Canada, but more so in British Columbia and Québec where the market has benefited from years of consistent government support. In particular, provincial and federal rebates for consumers buying or leasing zero-emission vehicles have been instrumental in shoring up consumer demand.
