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TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: Consumers Temper Optimism as Trade Tensions Escalate
March 17, 2025 TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: Consumers Temper Optimism as Trade Tensions Escalate TD debit and credit card spending data signal a slowdown, as consumers temper their end-of-2024 optimism amid escalating trade tensions. Both goods and services spending weakened in early 2025, with no meaningful signs of resilience in key categories.
Canadian Retail Sales
February 21, 2025 Canadian Retail Sales (December 2024) Retail activity ended the year with a bang. Given the dampening effect of the GST/HST tax break on nominal figures, real sales provide a better measure of consumer activity, pointing to a swift rebound in spending behaviour. As a result, we expect consumption growth for Q4 2024 to reach around 4% (annualized), pushing GDP growth above trend.
Trump slaps 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico, 10% on China
February 01, 2025 Trump slaps 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico, 10% on China On Tuesday, the U.S. will officially launch a tariff war with far reaching economic, geopolitical and financial market ramifications.
The Not-So-Swift-onomics
December 10, 2024 The Not-So-Swift-onomics TD Spend data suggests that the Eras Tour boosted spending in Ontario’s services sector relative to its own performance in November of previous years, but the overall economic impact was modest.
Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge
November 20, 2024 Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge Our analysis suggests that mortgage renewals are going to be less stressful for households than previously feared, with aggregate payments on Canadian mortgages poised to decline for balances outstanding as of mid-2024. The key factors behind this expected easing are lower interest rates and increased payments, which have helped to front-load the payment shock.
Artificial Intelligence Technologies Can Help Address Canada’s Productivity Slump
May 28, 2024 Artificial Intelligence Technologies Can Help Address Canada’s Productivity Slump Canada has a longstanding productivity problem. Simply put, Canada’s economy has struggled to find ways to boost the productivity of workers.
Middle-Income Families are Poised to Take the Wind Out of the Economy’s Deflating Sails
April 22, 2024 Middle-Income Families are Poised to Take the Wind Out of the Economy’s Deflating Sails
Riding Out the Mortgage Tides is a 'Mission Possible' for Canadian Households
December 13, 2023 Riding Out the Mortgage Tides is a 'Mission Possible' for Canadian Households
The Canadian Mortgage Reset Puzzle: Uncovering the Spending Behaviour of Mortgage Holders
December 07, 2023 The Canadian Mortgage Reset Puzzle: Uncovering the Spending Behaviour of Mortgage Holders
Oil prices have undergone bouts of volatility this year (2023) as various supply and demand drivers contended against one another. The path forward for oil prices is highly uncertain, with the bull an
October 12, 2023 Oil Market Update: The Sweet and the Sour
Mind the Gap: Canada is Falling Behind the Standard-of-Living Curve
July 13, 2023 Mind the Gap: Canada is Falling Behind the Standard-of-Living Curve
Offspring: How Canadians Born to Newcomers Are Shaping Canada's Future
May 30, 2023 Offspring: How Canadians Born to Newcomers Are Shaping Canada's Future
Part of a Cycle: A Recession Primer
March 09, 2023 Part of a Cycle: A Recession Primer
High, Low, or About Right? An Update On Canadian Consumer and Business Insolvencies
February 16, 2023 High, Low, or About Right? An Update On Canadian Consumer and Business Insolvencies
The Greying of Canada's Population
January 26, 2023 The Greying of Canada's Population
Tip of the Iceberg: Rising Debt Service Costs Are Only Starting to Be Felt by Canadian Households
December 19, 2022 Tip of the Iceberg: Rising Debt Service Costs Are Only Starting to Be Felt by Canadian Households
Central Banks' Homegrown Dilemma
October 26, 2022 Central Banks' Homegrown Dilemma
Inflation’s Toll on Canadian Families
August 18, 2022 Inflation’s Toll on Canadian Families
Walk The Line: The “What If” Economic Scenario
July 06, 2022 Walk The Line The “What If” Economic Scenario
Consumers... Just Want to Have Fun
June 27, 2022 Consumers... Just Want to Have Fun
Debt Payments to Squeeze Household Budgets as Interest Rates Rise
April 12, 2022 Debt Payments to Squeeze Household Budgets as Interest Rates Rise
Food Prices: A Growing Tailwind Behind Canadian Inflation
November 04, 2021 Food Prices: A Growing Tailwind Behind Canadian Inflation
Excess Household Savings and Implications for Inflation in Canada
November 03, 2021 Excess Household Savings and Implications for Inflation in Canada
Canadian Spending Patterns During The Pandemic
September 28, 2021 Canadian Spending Patterns During The Pandemic
A Regional Look at Canadian Inflation
September 27, 2021 A Regional Look at Canadian Inflation
Lessons for Canada From The European Delta Experience
September 02, 2021 Lessons for Canada From The European Delta Experience
Spending Lifts Off As Restrictions Ease: An Update on Canadian Spending Patterns
July 27, 2021 Spending Lifts Off As Restrictions Ease: An Update on Canadian Spending Patterns
American-style Inflation in Canada? Keep Calm and Carry On
July 13, 2021 American-style Inflation in Canada? Keep Calm and Carry On
The Pandemic Economy – One Year On
March 30, 2021 The Pandemic Economy – One Year On
Households Start 2021 With Higher Debt, But Also Larger Savings Cushion
March 15, 2021 Households Start 2021 With Higher Debt, But Also Larger Savings Cushion
Prospects for Canadian Consumers: To Save, Spend, or Pay Down Debt?
February 18, 2021 Prospects for Canadian Consumers: To Save, Spend, or Pay Down Debt?