Consumer
July 09, 2025
Mortgage Renewals Won’t Shock the System, but the Pain Will Linger
An average mortgage holder who has recently renewed, or is about to, is likely absorbing an increase in monthly payments. Media headlines are raising alarm bells that the ongoing wave of mortgage renewals is a looming “shock”. So, it may come as a surprise to learn that aggregate mortgage payments in Canada are actually declining. In this report, we unpack how both dynamics can be true at the same time.
June 24, 2025
TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: The Damage is Done
The latest TD Spend data suggest that Canadian consumers tightened their purse strings in the second quarter of 2025. We expect real consumer spending to be essentially flat for the quarter, with weaker momentum likely building into Q3.
November 20, 2024
Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge
Our analysis suggests that mortgage renewals are going to be less stressful for households than previously feared, with aggregate payments on Canadian mortgages poised to decline for balances outstanding as of mid-2024. The key factors behind this expected easing are lower interest rates and increased payments, which have helped to front-load the payment shock.
