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Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Middle East conflict has not just lifted oil prices, but forecast uncertainty is even snaking its way into other areas like food security for some nations. The economic fallout hinges on duration. Our baseline outlook assumes a short-lived conflict, implying a temporary impact on inflation and growth; a prolonged escalation would materially worsen the global outlook.
March 17, 2026
Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (February 2026)
Headline CPI inflation cooled in February to 1.8% year-on-year (y/y) slightly below consensus expectations. The GST/HST break ended partway through February 2025, which lead to large price increases in that month, but puts downward pressure on the year-on-year price change in February 2026.
March 16, 2026
Trending
Canadian Employment (February 2026)
Canada's economy lost 84k jobs in February (-0.4% month/month), far below consensus expectations for a 10k increase. Total employment is now essentially unchanged from September (+0.1%) having reversed most of last fall's gains. The details painted a similarly downbeat picture with the number of full-time workers down 108k, and the number of private sector workers down 73k for the month.
March 13, 2026
Future Ready Economy
Narrowing of the Wealth Gap – Outcomes of Canadian Households Post Pandemic
Despite high living costs, data shows that the wealth gap, the difference in the share of wealth held by the top 20% and the bottom 40% of households by wealth, narrowed by 5 percentage points from 2019 to 2023 reaching a record low. Average wealth for the bottom 40% increased over seven times faster than for the top 20%. Similarly, average wealth for households where the major income earner is under 35 years of age also increased over seven times faster than that of 35 years and older household
March 11, 2026
Trending
Global Financial Conditions Tighten in Face of Middle East Conflict
Financial markets have whipsawed as hope emerged for the fighting between the U.S., Israel and Iran to cease. Financial conditions had tightened since the start of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28th. The prospect of the conflict continuing to simmer, or reigniting again, risks a steeper tightening in financial conditions that, together with a large energy supply shock, could result in weaker economic growth and rising inflation – often referred to as stagflation.
March 10, 2026
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
March 17, 2026
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
March 13, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Alberta Budget
February 27, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Nova Scotia Budget
February 24, 2026
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Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
March 17, 2026
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
March 13, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Alberta Budget
February 27, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Nova Scotia Budget
February 24, 2026
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Latest Research
Future Ready Economy
Narrowing of the Wealth Gap – Outcomes of Canadian Households Post Pandemic
March 11, 2026
Latest Research
Mortgage Renewal Mission Possible: The Final Reckoning
March 04, 2026
Latest Research
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
February 26, 2026
Latest Research
The New Normal: 2026 Canadian Automotive Outlook
February 19, 2026
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Future Ready Economy
Narrowing of the Wealth Gap – Outcomes of Canadian Households Post Pandemic
March 11, 2026
Latest Research
Mortgage Renewal Mission Possible: The Final Reckoning
March 04, 2026
Latest Research
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
February 26, 2026
Latest Research
The New Normal: 2026 Canadian Automotive Outlook
February 19, 2026
View more latest research
Commentaries
Real Estate
Canadian Existing Home Sales (February 2026)
March 17, 2026
Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (February 2026)
March 16, 2026
Economy
Canadian Household Balance Sheet (2025 Q4)
March 16, 2026
Real Estate
Canadian Housing Starts (February 2026)
March 16, 2026
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Real Estate
Canadian Existing Home Sales (February 2026)
March 17, 2026
Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (February 2026)
March 16, 2026
Economy
Canadian Household Balance Sheet (2025 Q4)
March 16, 2026
Real Estate
Canadian Housing Starts (February 2026)
March 16, 2026
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