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Trending
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2026 Q1)
The results from the surveys are muddied by the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East coming after the original survey periods. The Bank of Canada conducted follow-up surveys of some participants to see how expectations had evolved in light of the shock – and unexpectedly inflation expectations were higher. On the consumer side, spending intentions and the labour market indicator were weak.
April 20, 2026
Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (March 2026)
Headline CPI inflation jumped up to 2.4% year-on-year (y/y) in March, slightly less than consensus expectations. Higher energy prices were a big part of the story, with inflation ex-energy up a more modest 2.2% y/y.
April 20, 2026
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
The Iran conflict has triggered a major energy supply shock, pushing oil prices meaningfully higher and extending the inflation impulse beyond what was initially expected. Central banks on both sides of the border are likely to look through the supply shock. Provided a longer-term peace deal is reached in the coming weeks, we still see a narrow window for the Fed to deliver on two more rate cuts in Q4.
April 16, 2026
Trending
Ceasefire Brings Some Relief To Crude Prices – But Diplomatic Setbacks Keep Risks Elevated
U.S.–Iran talks over the weekend ended without an agreement, raising doubts about whether the current ceasefire can evolve into lasting de-escalation. Crude prices have remained volatile since last week’s ceasefire news, initially rebounding before sliding again as markets pin hopes on a resumption of talks. We’ve updated our two main oil price scenarios – baseline and prolonged disruption – to reflect the most recent developments.
April 15, 2026
Media
WATCH: Derek Burleton discusses how higher oil prices are complicating the outlook for rates and the economy
As oil prices stay elevated, the path forward for the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Fed is getting murkier. Derek Burleton, Deputy Chief Economist at TD Bank Group, discusses the impact of higher energy costs on monetary policy and whether it’s creating an inflation problem or a growth problem for Canada’s economy.
April 02, 2026
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
April 17, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Prince Edward Island Budget
April 15, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Ontario Budget
March 26, 2026
Updated Publications
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Steep Downgrades Amid Persistent Housing Headwinds
March 26, 2026
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Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
April 17, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Prince Edward Island Budget
April 15, 2026
Updated Publications
2026 Ontario Budget
March 26, 2026
Updated Publications
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Steep Downgrades Amid Persistent Housing Headwinds
March 26, 2026
View more updated publications
Latest Research
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
April 16, 2026
Economy
Canada: TD Credit & Debit Card Spending
March 25, 2026
Future Ready Economy
Data Centers in a Grid Constrained World: Challenges and Opportunities for Canada
March 23, 2026
Future Ready Economy
Narrowing of the Wealth Gap – Outcomes of Canadian Households Post Pandemic
March 11, 2026
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Next
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
April 16, 2026
Economy
Canada: TD Credit & Debit Card Spending
March 25, 2026
Future Ready Economy
Data Centers in a Grid Constrained World: Challenges and Opportunities for Canada
March 23, 2026
Future Ready Economy
Narrowing of the Wealth Gap – Outcomes of Canadian Households Post Pandemic
March 11, 2026
View more latest research
Commentaries
Trending
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2026 Q1)
April 20, 2026
Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (March 2026)
April 20, 2026
Real Estate
Canadian Housing Starts (March 2026)
April 17, 2026
Real Estate
Canadian Existing Home Sales (March 2026)
April 16, 2026
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Trending
Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (2026 Q1)
April 20, 2026
Trending
Canadian Consumer Price Index (March 2026)
April 20, 2026
Real Estate
Canadian Housing Starts (March 2026)
April 17, 2026
Real Estate
Canadian Existing Home Sales (March 2026)
April 16, 2026
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