Real Estate
November 20, 2024
Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge
Our analysis suggests that mortgage renewals are going to be less stressful for households than previously feared, with aggregate payments on Canadian mortgages poised to decline for balances outstanding as of mid-2024. The key factors behind this expected easing are lower interest rates and increased payments, which have helped to front-load the payment shock.
November 15, 2024
Canadian Existing Home Sales (October 2024)
Canadian existing home sales vaulted higher by 7.7% month-on-month (m/m) in October. This pushed sales slightly above their pre-pandemic level for the first time since the beginning stages of the Bank of Canada's tightening campaign in early 2022.
October 16, 2024
Mortgage Rule Changes to Add Fuel to Canadian Housing Recovery
On December 15th, the federal government will roll out mortgage rule changes that make it easier to purchase a home for those taking out insured mortgages. These measures should offer a lift to Canadian home sales and prices next year. However, their impact will be blunted by an array of factors, including the affordability erosion induced by their implementation.
September 26, 2024
Canadian Housing Outlook: When the Trickle Becomes a Flood
The Canadian 5-year bond yield has declined over 100 bps since early May, while the Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate 3 times (with two more likely on tap this year). In short, the interest rate environment has significantly improved. Housing market activity is stirring, yet Canadian sales gains have, thus far, trailed what could typically be expected given this rush of rate relief.
September 05, 2024
Oversupplied GTA Condo Market a Headwind for Home Prices
GTA home sales levels have been subdued since the Bank of Canada began cutting rates in June. That said, sales growth should turn stronger, as the steep decline in yields gets more fully reflected in mortgage rates. Yet, even as sales growth heats up in coming months, average resale price growth in the GTA will probably trail by a considerable margin.
