Real Estate
July 16, 2025
Canadian Housing Starts (June 2025)
June's housing starts surpassed expectations, helping second quarter starts growth notch a record gain. This should provide a near-term tailwind for residential investment, buffering weakness in other areas of the Canadian economy that have been put under stress in the past few months.
July 15, 2025
Canadian Existing Home Sales (June 2025)
Canadian existing home sales advanced for a third consecutive month in June, increasing by 2.8% month-on-month (m/m). Gains in B.C. (+5.8% m/m) and Ontario (+5.3% m/m) helped lift national sales, while activity dipped in Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland.
July 09, 2025
Mortgage Renewals Won’t Shock the System, but the Pain Will Linger
An average mortgage holder who has recently renewed, or is about to, is likely absorbing an increase in monthly payments. Media headlines are raising alarm bells that the ongoing wave of mortgage renewals is a looming “shock”. So, it may come as a surprise to learn that aggregate mortgage payments in Canada are actually declining. In this report, we unpack how both dynamics can be true at the same time.
June 25, 2025
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Firmer Back Half of 2025 in the Cards for Canadian Housing
We’ve modestly upgraded our home sales growth forecasts for the second half of the year across Canada. This represents the assumption that pent-up demand that was sidelined in a weaker-than-expected first half returns to the market.
June 03, 2025
Canadian Federal Housing Plan: The 500k Marathon
The newly elected Carney government has set a goal to ramp up the level of Canadian housing completions to 500k per year, over the next 10 years, to restore affordability. Through its housing plan, the federal government would boost new supply through several measures, including cutting the GST on new homes, lowering development charges, and making favourable changes around tax incentives for purpose-built rental construction. These measures are likely to fall well short of closing the gap between what is currently completed and what the government is targeting.
May 01, 2025
GTA Condo Market Outlook: More Pressure in Store for Beleaguered Sector
2026 could bring improved fortunes for the market amid a supportive interest rate backdrop, waning tariff-related uncertainty, and stronger economic and job growth. However, chances of a heroic rebound are likely low, as population growth will likely be slow and condo affordability should remain strained.
March 06, 2025
Vancouver’s Housing Foundation is Firmer than Toronto’s
Much ink has been spilled about the weak state of the GTA’s housing market, particularly its condo sector. Indeed, GTA condo prices are falling, while price trends remain soft for other structure types. In contrast, the GVA market has held up much better in the face of the Bank of Canada’s 2022/23 interest rate hiking campaign.
January 15, 2025
Canadian Rental Market Outlook: Rent Growth to Continue Cooling in 2025
For 2025, we expect Canadian, purpose-built rent growth to slow to a range of 3-4%. Our outlook reflects a multitude of factors such as slowing population growth, increased rental supply, and lower interest rates.
November 20, 2024
Mortgage Holders Have Moved Away From The Cliff Edge
Our analysis suggests that mortgage renewals are going to be less stressful for households than previously feared, with aggregate payments on Canadian mortgages poised to decline for balances outstanding as of mid-2024. The key factors behind this expected easing are lower interest rates and increased payments, which have helped to front-load the payment shock.
October 16, 2024
Mortgage Rule Changes to Add Fuel to Canadian Housing Recovery
On December 15th, the federal government will roll out mortgage rule changes that make it easier to purchase a home for those taking out insured mortgages. These measures should offer a lift to Canadian home sales and prices next year. However, their impact will be blunted by an array of factors, including the affordability erosion induced by their implementation.
September 05, 2024
Oversupplied GTA Condo Market a Headwind for Home Prices
GTA home sales levels have been subdued since the Bank of Canada began cutting rates in June. That said, sales growth should turn stronger, as the steep decline in yields gets more fully reflected in mortgage rates. Yet, even as sales growth heats up in coming months, average resale price growth in the GTA will probably trail by a considerable margin.
