Provincial & Local Analysis
March 26, 2026
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Steep Downgrades Amid Persistent Housing Headwinds
Weaker-than-expected performances in 2025Q4 and especially 2026Q1 have prompted a steep downgrade to our forecasts for 2026 annual average Canadian home resales and price growth. While severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada weighed on activity early in the year, weakness was also evident in B.C., where conditions were more temperate. Sales are likely to take most of the year to recoup first quarter losses, as housing remains constrained by a subdued economy, heightened uncertainty, and ongoing cost of living pressures.
February 17, 2026
Canada: Gearing Up for Provincial Budget Season
Provincial governments are readying their 2026 Budgets. The tone across provinces is likely to be cautious as governments face ongoing fiscal deficits, rising debt burdens, and economic outlooks shaped by slower growth, trade uncertainties, and spending pressures. Some key, high-level themes that we expect to be present in the spring budget season are outlined in this report.
August 14, 2025
The State of Play on Interprovincial Trade
All provinces have taken some steps towards the removal of interprovincial trade barriers. This is a potentially encouraging development and could help offset some of the impact of the Canada U.S.-trade war. However, actions have not been uniform. Ontario has arguably gone the farthest in terms of removing its barriers, followed by Nova Scotia and Manitoba. PEI, and B.C. have also enshrined into law legislation aimed at removing trade barriers.
June 10, 2025
Support Measures Cap 2025 Provincial Budget Season
Provincial governments faced the difficult task of tabling their annual budgets amid mounting headwinds from U.S. trade policies. Provincial budget season revealed expectations for weaker economic growth and government revenues across the board, manifesting in provincial bottom lines.
November 14, 2024
Ontario’s Industry-based Outlook: Navigating Turbulent Waters
Ontario’s industry-based GDP managed to increase at a slightly faster year-on-year pace than the rest of Canada in the first half this year. This is noteworthy given that the province has had the weakest housing market in the country and is home to rate-sensitive, highly indebted households.
July 18, 2024
Policymakers Take Note: Population Growth is Easing in the Atlantic
Population growth remains incredibly strong in the Atlantic Region. However, it is easing from sky-high rates, just as other parts of the country appear to be holding firm. We anticipate this trend towards slower population growth in the Atlantic will persist, marking a very important development for a region where economic growth has broadly benefitted more from recent population inflows.
