June 05, 2024
Sustaining U.S. Government Debt Will Force Hard Choices in the Future
The U.S. federal government has run a deficit virtually every year for the past forty years. In 2024, the deficit will be around 4% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP). Under current policy, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that it will remain around this level for the next decade. This will lead to an increase in federal government debt held by the public, from 99% of GDP in 2024 to 116% of GDP in 2034.
June 03, 2024
A Sticky Situation: U.S. Shelter Inflation Easing, But Upside Risks Ahead in 2025
Shelter costs have been a key source of stickiness in U.S. inflation. Because housing represents more than one-third of the overall CPI basket, it remains the single biggest contributor to underlying inflation, and a key force preventing inflation from returning to the Fed’s target.