Forecasts
September 22, 2026
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to run slightly above its long-run trend rate of growth in 2026/27, aided by expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, further investments in AI and a resilient consumer. The unemployment rate is expected to drift a bit lower, reaching its long-run average of 4% by Q1-2027. The Canadian economy is expected to expand at a below trend pace in 2027 and accelerate thereafter as population growth and the initial shocks from tariffs recede. The unemployment rate is expected to only moderately fall in 2027 and not return to a long-run average until 2028, keeping consumption spending growth muted.
September 22, 2026
State Economic Forecast
New England entered 2026 with uneven momentum, but financial services, defense manufacturing, health care, and productivity gains are helping offset headwinds from higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions. We expect regional economic growth of 2.0% in 2026, led by Massachusetts and New Hampshire, before slowing to 1.7% in 2027. Aging demographics, reduced immigration, and continued domestic outmigration are restraining labor force growth, which should keep the labor market tight despite muted hiring. Tight inventories continue to support home values, although affordability pressures should slow price growth from 3.5% in 2026 to 2.7% in 2027.
August 19, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The global economy and financial markets continue to be shaped by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the AI investment boom, and shifts in U.S. tariff policy. This quarter's Q&A explores how these forces are influencing the economic outlook, from energy-market risks and AI-related financial vulnerabilities to rising bond yields and evolving expectations for monetary policy. We also explore the durability of U.S. economic outperformance, and the resilience of labor markets and household finances.
April 16, 2026
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
The Iran conflict has triggered a major energy supply shock, pushing oil prices meaningfully higher and extending the inflation impulse beyond what was initially expected. Provided a longer-term peace deal is reached in the coming weeks, we still see a narrow window for the Fed to deliver on two more rate cuts in Q4.
February 26, 2026
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
I thought President Trump threw us curve balls last year, but the start of 2026 came completely out of left field. This presentation will cut thru the noise and review what’s new and not in the U.S. outlook. The main takeaway is that the U.S. economy has been unflappable, with the forecast materially revised up.
December 04, 2025
The Days Of Our Lives
Yes, the title of this presentation comes from a famous soap opera. It’s appropriate to depict the past year, full of economic and political drama. We’re on the cusp of closing out 2025, a dramatic 365 days marked by the shifting sands in government policies and corporate behaviors. And this final quarter of the year has brought forward more pivots on both sides of the border that will keep us glued to the next episode. My only hope is that the economic drama doesn’t run sixty-three seasons like the soap opera!
September 02, 2025
Tails We Win, Heads You Lose
The U.S. has been disruptor of itself. Whether it be to its own business cost structures and trade flows with tariff policies, or labor force dynamics with uncertainty and immigration policies. And yet, it’s paying a lower economic cost relative to peer countries. That gave rise to the title: Tails we win, heads you lose. I’ll explore the resilient features of the domestic economy, making sure to distinguish the narratives we hear from the data we see.
April 16, 2025
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
The U.S. administration imposed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, dropping all countries (excluding China) to a flat 10% tariff. This comes in addition to the sectoral tariffs, including steel & aluminum and finished autos & parts. We estimate the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be 26%, the highest level in over a century. However, this is skewed by the outsized 145% tariff on China.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
