Forecasts
March 19, 2026
State Economic Forecast
New England enters 2026 on a weak footing, but financial services activity, defense manufacturing, and healthcare have helped limit downside risks from federal research funding cuts and elevated trade uncertainty. Economic growth has remained robust coming into 2026, as the Middle Atlantic's large white-collar industries benefited from lower interest rates and significant investments in artificial intelligence. Economic activity in the Upper South Atlantic slowed to an estimated 1.8% last year. While growth eased across all states in the region, the slowdown was more pronounced in the DMV (D.C., Maryland and Virginia), where federal layoffs have had a deeper impact. Economic growth in the Lower South Atlantic eased in 2025 but held well above the national rate at 2.7%. Its outperformance vis-à-vis the nation will likely dissipate this year, as a soft start to the year in Florida and South Carolina holds back these typically high performers.
March 18, 2026
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to run slightly above its long-run trend rate of growth in 2026/27, aided by expansionary fiscal policy, a less restrictive federal funds rate, some easing in regulation, and further investments in AI. Canadian economic growth is expected to run below trend through 2026. Output is held back by slower population growth and the impact of U.S. tariffs on export demand and business and consumer sentiment.
March 17, 2026
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Middle East conflict has not just lifted oil prices, but forecast uncertainty is even snaking its way into other areas like food security for some nations. The economic fallout hinges on duration. Our baseline outlook assumes a short-lived conflict, implying a temporary impact on inflation and growth; a prolonged escalation would materially worsen the global outlook.
February 26, 2026
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
I thought President Trump threw us curve balls last year, but the start of 2026 came completely out of left field. This presentation will cut thru the noise and review what’s new and not in the U.S. outlook. The main takeaway is that the U.S. economy has been unflappable, with the forecast materially revised up.
February 12, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The start of 2026 sparked plenty of economic shifts for our Q&A. From swings in the U.S. Dollar to President Trump's new nominee for Fed Chair, to various housing policy shifts under consideration on the U.S. side. Amidst it all, an economy once again displaying surprising strength.
December 04, 2025
The Days Of Our Lives
Yes, the title of this presentation comes from a famous soap opera. It’s appropriate to depict the past year, full of economic and political drama. We’re on the cusp of closing out 2025, a dramatic 365 days marked by the shifting sands in government policies and corporate behaviors. And this final quarter of the year has brought forward more pivots on both sides of the border that will keep us glued to the next episode. My only hope is that the economic drama doesn’t run sixty-three seasons like the soap opera!
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year. Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices on the firm side in 2026.
September 02, 2025
Tails We Win, Heads You Lose
The U.S. has been disruptor of itself. Whether it be to its own business cost structures and trade flows with tariff policies, or labor force dynamics with uncertainty and immigration policies. And yet, it’s paying a lower economic cost relative to peer countries. That gave rise to the title: Tails we win, heads you lose. I’ll explore the resilient features of the domestic economy, making sure to distinguish the narratives we hear from the data we see.
April 16, 2025
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
The U.S. administration imposed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, dropping all countries (excluding China) to a flat 10% tariff. This comes in addition to the sectoral tariffs, including steel & aluminum and finished autos & parts. We estimate the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be 26%, the highest level in over a century. However, this is skewed by the outsized 145% tariff on China.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
