Forecasts
February 19, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
In just four weeks since assuming office, President Trump has issued a record number of executive orders (EOs) and is spinning markets with new tariff announcements by the day. No surprise, this quarter's Q&A is dominated by discussions on potential impacts.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
December 18, 2024
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to remain above its long-run trend rate of growth in 2024, before normalizing closer to a trend pace in 2025. Even so, the unemployment rate is expected to edge a bit higher, reaching 4.3% in mid-2025 before gradually returning to its long-run average of 4% by the second half of 2026.
December 17, 2024
State Economic Forecast
The New England economy is expected to decelerate gradually in 2025, from its solid pace of growth this year. The rebound in the Middle Atlantic economy through the first half of 2024 has begun to weaken. The Upper South Atlantic region is estimated to have grown roughly in line with the U.S. rate this year. The Lower South Atlantic continues to outperform, with all three states that make up the region outperforming the nation this year.
December 05, 2024
Economic Outlook Gets Trumped!
Starting points matter for a new administration. President Trump will be inheriting a strong economy that has been beating forecasts by a statistical mile! This works to the advantage of Republicans in 2025. Households have more cushion to absorb some economic pain from a tariff war compared to the economies of trading partners that are treading water.
August 26, 2024
Dollars and Sense: Ready… Set... Cut! Cut! Cut!
The Fed is finally ready to cut interest rates, but questions remain on the speed and magnitude. We penciled in 25 basis points per meeting, with over 250 bps in cuts over this year and next. However, now that the Fed is confident that inflation will return to target, it will prioritize a little more of the other side of its dual mandate – developments in the job market – to ultimately determine the speed and size of rate cuts.
