Forecasts
December 04, 2025
The Days Of Our Lives
Yes, the title of this presentation comes from a famous soap opera. It’s appropriate to depict the past year, full of economic and political drama. We’re on the cusp of closing out 2025, a dramatic 365 days marked by the shifting sands in government policies and corporate behaviors. And this final quarter of the year has brought forward more pivots on both sides of the border that will keep us glued to the next episode. My only hope is that the economic drama doesn’t run sixty-three seasons like the soap opera!
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year. Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices on the firm side in 2026.
November 25, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
It's hard to write anything these days without addressing the impact of tariffs, but this quarter bubbled up many other issues for our Q&A. The effects of the U.S. government shutdown, signals from the labor market and the Fed's next interest rate move are also examined.
September 23, 2025
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to run below its long-run trend rate of growth in 2025 and 2026, as growth is slowed by higher tariffs, some fiscal restraint and slower population growth. Real GDP growth then briefly overshoots in 2027 and then converges closer to potential by 2028.
September 23, 2025
State Economic Forecast
The New England economy has cooled in 2025 as a combination of reduced tourist inflows, federal research funding cuts, and trade uncertainty has weighed on the region. Despite a modest recovery through the summer, the Middle Atlantic economy has seen limited upside in 2025 as elevated uncertainty has constrained private sector activity. Economic growth in the Upper South Atlantic is shifting into lower gear, resulting in slower job growth, and rising unemployment rates. Weakness is concentrated in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia), where federal employment cuts weigh on the region. Growth in the Lower South Atlantic is slowing, but the trend is not uniform across the region.
September 18, 2025
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
Despite all the twists and turns in U.S. trade policy, our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged from our June view. Ditto for the U.S. economy, at least on the surface. Consumers have pulled back as the labor market has cooled, but that has been offset by strong business investment. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates further to support the labor market that has cooled further than previously believed.
September 02, 2025
Tails We Win, Heads You Lose
The U.S. has been disruptor of itself. Whether it be to its own business cost structures and trade flows with tariff policies, or labor force dynamics with uncertainty and immigration policies. And yet, it’s paying a lower economic cost relative to peer countries. That gave rise to the title: Tails we win, heads you lose. I’ll explore the resilient features of the domestic economy, making sure to distinguish the narratives we hear from the data we see.
April 16, 2025
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
The U.S. administration imposed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, dropping all countries (excluding China) to a flat 10% tariff. This comes in addition to the sectoral tariffs, including steel & aluminum and finished autos & parts. We estimate the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be 26%, the highest level in over a century. However, this is skewed by the outsized 145% tariff on China.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
