Government Finance & Policy
February 21, 2025
Hurry Up & Wait: Congressional Fiscal Priorities in the First 100 Days
The 119th session of Congress is halfway through its first 100 days with a multitude of goals they want to, and in some cases need to, achieve within the coming months. However, razor thin margins of majority have complicated the ability of the Republican trifecta in the House of Representatives, Senate, and White House to implement the legislative priorities of the new federal government.
January 22, 2025
Medicaid Unlikely to Dodge the DOGE
The U.S. federal deficit widened to $1.8 trillion or 6.4% of GDP in fiscal year 2024. This is more than double the annual deficit averaged over the 50-year period preceding the pandemic, as outlays – measured as a share of GDP – remain elevated relative to revenues . In response, the Trump administration has promised to rein in all “wasteful” federal spending and has created a special task force known as the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which will be led by Elon Musk.
January 06, 2025
Climate Policy in a 2nd Trump Term – What’s on the Chopping Block?
Climate policy is set to take a major U-turn under Donald Trump’s second term. The president-elect will likely prioritize rolling back regulatory powers and direct spending that expanded significantly under President Biden.
November 19, 2024
U.S. Treasury Market Uncertainties: Higher Supply and Shifting Demand
Higher structural deficits are expected to push U.S. federal government debt as a share of GDP to 100% next year and 122% by 2034. This translates to a roughly $22 trillion (or 85%) increase in the supply of U.S. Treasuries between 2024 and 2034.
October 15, 2024
U.S. Presidential Elections and Stock Markets: It’s the Economy…Obviously
The U.S. Presidential election is just weeks away and investors are quickly turning their attention to the potential implications for financial markets. Would a Trump or Harris win be better for the stock market?
September 13, 2024
U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications
Elections matter for the economy, but financial markets are likely to be particularly attuned to the current election cycle given America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The make-up of Congress will determine how much of the future President’s agenda can be implemented. A divided Congress will likely force the next President to make significant concessions relative to their current platform proposals.
