Commentaries
May 15, 2025
U.S. Retail Sales (April 2025)
Retail sales were little changed in April, but the easing in activity comes on the heels of a surge in March as consumers rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs. There continued to be some evidence of this front-loading in April, with auto sales remaining at elevated levels, and consumers still purchasing large ticket items like furniture, electronics, and building materials
May 13, 2025
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (April 2025)
The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points to 95.8, the second consecutive month below the long-term average of 98. The uncertainty index decreased 4 points on the month, but at a reading of 92 remained well above the historical average of 68.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
May 05, 2025
U.S. ISM Services Index (April 2025)
The service sector expanded in April, but the details are less encouraging. While the overall index improved, business activity declined and it looks as though the service sector is feeling the effects of tariffs coming into place in April, cutting activity and imports at the same time.
May 01, 2025
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (April 2025)
The ISM Manufacturing Index declined slightly in April, to 48.7 from 49.0 in March. Eleven of 18 industries reported growth for the month, up from nine in February. In another sign of slowing momentum, 41% of manufacturing GDP contracted in April, comparable to the 46% in March
April 30, 2025
Real GDP (Q1-2025, advance estimate)
While the U.S. economy entered 2025 with considerable momentum, the vast policy changes undertaken by the new administration have undermined the growth outlook. The pullback in first quarter GDP was overwhelmingly driven by a sharp widening in the trade deficit, as businesses scrambled to boost inventories ahead of the tariff hikes.
April 30, 2025
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (March 2025)
Consumer spending staged a rebound in March, as households rushed to purchase new vehicles ahead of the looming tariffs. Consumers are likely to continue frontloading their purchases in April, however, this will be a temporary upswing and will likely soon fizzle out.
April 09, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (March 18-19, 2025)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates constant at the conclusion of its March 18-19 meeting. The minutes for this meeting, released today, unsurprisingly showed that increasingly negative sentiment in financial markets and uncertainty about future policies were taking a more prominent place in the committee's deliberations.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
