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Commentaries

U.S. Housing Starts and Permits
November 19, 2024 U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (October 2024) Housing starts fell 3.1% month-on-month (m/m) in October to 1.31 million (annualized) units, slightly below the consensus forecast. Revisions to the data for the two prior months added 17k units to the previous reported tallies.
United States Retail Sales
November 15, 2024 U.S. Retail Sales (October 2024) Retail sales were higher than expected in October due to an outsized uptick in motor vehicle sales, however if motor vehicles are excluded then retails sales were flat on the month. Nevertheless, the 3-month average for retail sales rose from 0.2% in September to 0.6% in October on the back of material upward revisions to the prior month's data.
U.S. Consumer Price Index
November 13, 2024 U.S. Consumer Price Index (October 2024) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in October, in line with the consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI ticked up to 2.6% (from 2.4% in September).
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
November 12, 2024 U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (October 2024) Small business confidence recorded a moderate improvement in October – a welcome development, even as this did little to change the status quo of sentiment remaining well below historical norms.
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting (November 6-7, 2024)
November 07, 2024 U.S. FOMC Meeting (November 6-7, 2024) The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate to the 4.50% to 4.75% range and announced it would continue its balance sheet runoff.
U.S. ISM Services Index
November 05, 2024 U.S. ISM Services Index (October 2024) The ISM Services index defied expectations and rose to the highest level in over two-years in October. While both new-orders and business activity were a tad lower on the month, they both remain well in expansionary territory.
U.S. Vehicle Sales
November 04, 2024 U.S. Vehicle Sales (October 2024) Light vehicle sales rose more than expected in October, as stronger growth in the retail segment offset disruptions related to extreme weather in the Southeast.
U.S. Employment - Labor market, hiring, job creation
November 01, 2024 U.S. Employment (October 2024) Between the ongoing Boeing strike and the devastating impacts of Hurricane's Helene and Milton, we knew this was going to be messy employment report. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics didn't provide any point estimates of hurricane impacts, they did note that the storms "likely" had some impact on last month's figures.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
November 01, 2024 U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (October 2024) The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.5 in October from 47.2 last month and short of the expected 47.6 print. As has been the case since July, only 5 of 18 industries reported growth for the month.
U.S. Personal Income & Spending
October 31, 2024 U.S. Personal Income & Spending (September 2024) Personal income grew 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in September, up slightly from July's 0.2% gain and bang on market expectations.
Real GDP (Q2-2024, second estimate)
October 30, 2024 Real GDP (Q3-2024, advance estimate) Another solid quarter for the U.S. economy, with underlying domestic demand pushing well above 3% and accounting for all of last quarter's growth. Beyond the housing market, there are very few signs that elevated interest rates are exerting any meaningful drag on domestic activity.
U.S. Existing Home Sales
October 23, 2024 U.S. Existing Home Sales (September 2024) Existing home sales fell 1.0% month-on-month (m/m) to 3.84 million units (annualized) in September, coming in below market expectations for a moderate gain of 0.5%. Sales were down 3.5% from a year ago.
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes
October 09, 2024 U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (September 17-18, 2024) The minutes from the September 17-18th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released today indicate that while Committee members recognized inflation had been easing, they still saw both GDP growth and the labor market as solid.
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
October 02, 2024 U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024) Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
U.S. FOMC Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole
August 23, 2024 U.S. FOMC Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole Symposium (August 23, 2024) At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Jackson Hole Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell gave a much-anticipated speech on the state of the economy, simply titled, Review and Outlook.
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
August 06, 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (July 2024) The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on banks' lending practices continued to show progress, as a lower share of banks reported tighter lending standards in the second quarter relative to the first quarter of 2024 on all loan categories.
OPEC+ Extends Cuts and Plans for Production Increases
June 03, 2024 OPEC+ Extends Cuts and Plans for Production Increases
U.S. Employment Cost Index (Q3-2023)
October 31, 2023 U.S. Employment Cost Index (Q3-2023)
Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole
August 25, 2023 Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole
2022 Inflation Reduction Act
August 08, 2022 2022 Inflation Reduction Act