Commentaries
December 19, 2025
U.S. Existing Home Sales (November 2025)
Existing home sales rose by 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) to 4.13 million units (annualized) in November – coming in below the market consensus forecast for a 1.2% gain. November marked the third consecutive monthly gain. Sales are now at the highest level since February but remain low by historical standards.
December 18, 2025
U.S. Consumer Price Index (November 2025)
Well, that was a surprise! Disinflationary pressure was evident across the board in November, with both goods and services inflation cooling. That said, we are hesitant to put too much stock in today's figures. The government shutdown delayed the collection of November's data, pushing the collection period into the holiday shopping season where there's traditionally deep discounting.
December 16, 2025
U.S. Employment (November 2025)
There's a lot to digest in this morning's release. The takeaway is that the labor market remains on a relatively soft footing, with employers showing little appetite to hire, but are also reluctant to fire. That said, labor demand has cooled more than supply in recent months, which is what's behind the steady upward drift in the unemployment rate.
December 09, 2025
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November 2025)
The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index edged higher in November, rising to 99.0 from 98.2 in the previous month. Business uncertainty, meanwhile, increased modestly, with the uncertainty index rising by 3 points to 91— below the 12-month average of 94.
November 26, 2025
U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book (November 2025)
Today's Beige Book sheds some light on how the U.S. economy fared during the government shutdown and the early days of reopening, with information collected on or before November 17. Overall, economic activity was little changed since the previous report. Looking across the twelve Fed Districts, two Districts noted a modest decline (down from four in October) and one reported modest growth (down from three in October), while the remaining nine saw no change (up from five in October).
November 19, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (October 28-29, 2025)
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.00% to 3.75% in October, despite the government shutdown leaving them with little additional official data since their September decision.
November 12, 2025
U.S. Government Shutdown Update
The U.S. Senate narrowly passed a bipartisan deal that would end the federal government shutdown, which began on October 1st. Eight moderate Democratic Senators broke ranks and voted in favor of the bill, providing the 60-vote majority required to advance the continuing resolution (CR) through the Senate.
September 17, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (August 2025)
Homebuilding activity declined in August as the rebound in the multi-family segment recorded over the past few months lost steam and building activity in the larger single-family market continued to fall modestly. Amid rising construction costs related to tariffs and softening demand conditions, in part stemming from the weakened labor market, homebuilders have remained cautious on aggregate.
August 22, 2025
U.S. FOMC Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22, 2025)
Chair Powell struck a more dovish tone in today's speech, sending a clear signal that further policy easing is on the way. While a September cut is looking more likely, it is still not a guarantee and will largely hinge on the August employment and inflation reports.
July 03, 2025
U.S. Congress Prepares to Pass the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act
Despite House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, marathon speaking session, all indications are that Congressional Republicans have the votes to pass President Trump's signature legislative package to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, implement a handful of new consumer and business tax cuts, and increase defense and border security spending. The bill will also include cuts to spending on Medicaid and SNAP, in addition to repealing most of the clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
August 06, 2024
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (July 2024)
The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on banks' lending practices continued to show progress, as a lower share of banks reported tighter lending standards in the second quarter relative to the first quarter of 2024 on all loan categories.
