Commentaries
January 17, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (December 2024)
Housing starts increased 15.8% month-on-month (m/m) in December to 1.50 million (annualized) units, surpassing expectations for a modest uptick. Revisions to the data for the two prior months added 37k units to the previous reported tallies.
January 15, 2025
U.S. Consumer Price Index (December 2024)
December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report contained a little bit of good news on core inflation. After a few months of hotter readings, core prices posted a softer-than-expected gain. Fed members have indicated a desire for a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts this year, and we still think they will take a pause in January.
January 10, 2025
U.S. Employment (December 2024)
The U.S. economy added 256k jobs in December, well above the consensus forecast calling for a gain of 165k. Payroll figures for October were revised up by 7k (to 43k), while November was revised lower by 15k (to 212k), resulting in a total net revision of -8k over the two prior months.
January 08, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (December 17-18, 2024)
The minutes from the December 17-18th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released today confirmed that, while the committee still expects inflation to move toward 2 percent, there is greater concern than at the prior meeting that progress on inflation has stalled.
January 06, 2025
U.S. Vehicle Sales (December 2024)
Light vehicle sales surprised to the upside for a third consecutive month in December, bringing total sales in 2024 to 15.9 million units (+2.2% relative to 2023). Holiday incentives and a continued gradual descent in financing rates helped to support sales in December.
November 27, 2024
Real GDP (Q3-2024, second estimate)
Third quarter economic growth remained solid, expanding well above trend, with underlying domestic demand accounting for all of last quarter's gain. Beyond the housing market and some elements of commercial real estate, there are few signs that elevated interest rates are materially weighing on domestic activity.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
