Commentaries
February 21, 2025
U.S. Existing Home Sales (January 2025)
Existing home sales fell in January, breaking the 3-month winning streak that developed at the end of last year. This result was not entirely surprising given the elevated mortgage rate environment that persisted at the turn of the year, with rates hovering near 7%.
February 19, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (January 28-29, 2025)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates constant at the conclusion of its January 28-29 meeting. The minutes for this meeting, released today, confirmed that the FOMC is not in a hurry to reduce interest rates further.
February 19, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (January 2025)
Homebuilding activity retreated to start 2025, partly owing to volatility in the multi-family segment but also likely in part owing to severe weather during the month. Taking a step back, the annual percentage change in single-family starts was down 1.8%, while multi-family starts were up 2.2%.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
February 07, 2025
U.S. Employment (January 2025)
There was a lot to digest in this report. But perhaps the biggest takeaway was that hiring momentum was even stronger than previously expected at the end of last year – averaging 204k jobs per-month in the fourth quarter. And even though the January figures showed some deceleration in payrolls, it was likely due to wildfires in California and cold weather across much of the U.S. – suggesting we could see some bounce back in February.
February 04, 2025
U.S. Vehicle Sales (January 2025)
Light vehicle sales moderated to start the new year but remained stable on aggregate. The 7.5% month-on-month decline was in part due to several factors that pushed up sales in December, including uncertainty related to prices from tariff threats and expectations for electric vehicle subsidies to end under the new administration.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
