Commentaries
June 10, 2025
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May 2025)
The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index increased by 3 points to 98.8 in May, coming in slightly above its long-term average of 98. The May increase marked the first improvement of the year. The uncertainty subindex rose 2 points to 94.
June 04, 2025
U.S. ISM Services Index (May 2025)
The ISM Services index fell 1.7 points to 49.9 in May, coming in well below expectations for a modest improvement to 52.0. This marked the first time that the index fell into contractionary territory since June 2024. Ten of eighteen industries reported growth in May, down from eleven in April and fourteen at the start of the year.
June 02, 2025
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2025)
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48.5 in May, down from 48.7 in April. Seven of 18 industries reported growth for the month, down from eleven in April. Furthermore, 57% of manufacturing GDP contracted in May, well above the 41% share recorded in April.
May 30, 2025
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (April 2025)
Consumer spending came off the burner in April as the implementation of reciprocal tariffs weighed on consumer confidence and began to bring an end to the front-loading behavior we had seen in March. Moving forward, we expect consumer spending to grow at a modest pace of 1.8% in the second quarter as the economy continues to adapt to a higher cost environment.
May 29, 2025
Real GDP (Q1-2025, second estimate)
The second estimate of first quarter real GDP did not change the underlying narrative. Economic growth was heavily weighed down by a surge in import activity, as businesses scrambled to pull forward purchases ahead of the tariffs. Looking through the import shock, underlying domestic demand remained reasonably healthy, but this too likely captures behavior shifts related to tariffs in investment and consumer purchases, such as autos.
May 28, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (May 6-7, 2025)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the policy rate steady in the target range of 4.25-4.5% at its May 6-7th meeting. Unsurprisingly, the minutes from that meeting revealed a growing uncertainty among participants on the economic outlook, as this was the first FOMC deliberation following President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2nd.
May 15, 2025
U.S. Retail Sales (April 2025)
Retail sales were little changed in April, but the easing in activity comes on the heels of a surge in March as consumers rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs. There continued to be some evidence of this front-loading in April, with auto sales remaining at elevated levels, and consumers still purchasing large ticket items like furniture, electronics, and building materials
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
