Commentaries
July 03, 2025
U.S. Congress Prepares to Pass the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act
Despite House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, marathon speaking session, all indications are that Congressional Republicans have the votes to pass President Trump's signature legislative package to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, implement a handful of new consumer and business tax cuts, and increase defense and border security spending. The bill will also include cuts to spending on Medicaid and SNAP, in addition to repealing most of the clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
July 03, 2025
U.S. Employment (June 2025)
The June gain in non-farm payrolls outpaced expectations considerably, as non-cyclical sectors including health care and government carried the report. While federal payrolls continued to decline in June, state & local government payrolls recorded its largest gain in two and a half years
July 03, 2025
U.S. ISM Services Index (June 2025)
Today's ISM Services report was expected to return to expansion in June, after flirting with contraction in May, and is consistent with the June jobs report in reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. economy. Still, a reading of 50.8 is below the average of the past 12 months pointing to a softening in conditions in the services sector.
July 02, 2025
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2025)
Manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace in June as production picked up modestly. However, the industry remains sluggish overall, with domestic and foreign demand continuing to contract under current tariff policies and elevated uncertainty regarding their duration and future composition.
July 02, 2025
U.S. Vehicle Sales (June 2025)
The spring buying season was volatile this year, as tariffs on vehicles implemented in April motivated consumers to pull forward their purchases in advance of expected price increases. We are now on the backend of that trend, with sales activity offsetting the excess demand of months prior.
June 27, 2025
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (May 2025)
Both consumer spending and income growth came in weaker than expected in May. Personal income decreased 0.4% month-over-month (m/m), well below the Bloomberg consensus of +0.3% m/m. Consumer spending was also soft, declining by 0.1% m/m. With income declining more than spending, personal savings rate fell to 4.5% (from 4.9% in April).
June 18, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting (June 17-18, 2025)
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% target range for the fourth consecutive meeting. The 'pause' on rate cuts comes after the FOMC lowered the funds rate by a total of 100 basis points (bps) over the final three meetings of 2024.
June 18, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (May 2025)
Homebuilding activity fell in May as starts in the single-family segment remained soft, while the support from the multifamily sector retreated, with activity in this smaller (and typically more volatile) segment pulling back sharply for the first time in four months.
June 10, 2025
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May 2025)
The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index increased by 3 points to 98.8 in May, coming in slightly above its long-term average of 98. The May increase marked the first improvement of the year. The uncertainty subindex rose 2 points to 94.
May 29, 2025
Real GDP (Q1-2025, second estimate)
The second estimate of first quarter real GDP did not change the underlying narrative. Economic growth was heavily weighed down by a surge in import activity, as businesses scrambled to pull forward purchases ahead of the tariffs. Looking through the import shock, underlying domestic demand remained reasonably healthy, but this too likely captures behavior shifts related to tariffs in investment and consumer purchases, such as autos.
May 28, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (May 6-7, 2025)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the policy rate steady in the target range of 4.25-4.5% at its May 6-7th meeting. Unsurprisingly, the minutes from that meeting revealed a growing uncertainty among participants on the economic outlook, as this was the first FOMC deliberation following President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2nd.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
