July 02, 2024
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2024)
The ISM Manufacturing Index was little change in June, dipping to 48.5 from 48.7 in May, falling short of expectations for a 49.1 print. The contraction broadened further, with now 62% of manufacturing GDP shrinking, up from 55% in May, and 34% in April.
June 28, 2024
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (May 2024)
At 1.5%, the Q1 reading is now a full percentage point lower than the advanced estimate, largely due to a combination of weaker durable goods spending and a slower pace of services spending. That said, with data in for the first two months of Q2, growth in real consumer expenditures is expected to land around a similar place for the second quarter.
June 18, 2024
U.S. Retail Sales (May 2024)
After a breather in April, consumers were back at it in May. While not large, retail spending growth edged back into positive territory. With other evidence (slowing hire rate, uptick in unemployment rate etc.) pointing to the labor market cooling however, any deceleration there is likely to see retail spending follow suit. With two months of data in for the quarter, retail spending is currently tracking 1.6% q/q (annualized) for Q2 - an uptick from a -0.8% (annualized) decline last quarter.
June 12, 2024
U.S. Consumer Price Index (May 2024)
The May CPI reading delivered a pleasant surprise, coming in handily below the consensus forecast. Importantly, last month's deceleration offers further support that the flare-up in inflationary pressures earlier this year has subsided. The three-month annualized rate of change on core dipped to 3.3% – the slowest pace of growth since December 2023.