Commentaries
April 09, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (March 18-19, 2025)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates constant at the conclusion of its March 18-19 meeting. The minutes for this meeting, released today, unsurprisingly showed that increasingly negative sentiment in financial markets and uncertainty about future policies were taking a more prominent place in the committee's deliberations.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
March 20, 2025
U.S. Existing Home Sales (February 2025)
Existing home sales rose 4.2% month-on-month (m/m) to 4.26 million units (annualized) in February. This was considerably better than market expectations, which called for a decline to 3.95 million. Sales were down 1.2% from February 2024. Unadjusted sales were down 5.2% year-on-year.
March 18, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (February 2025)
Homebuilding bounced back in February, almost completely offsetting January's slump. The longer-term picture shows a housing market that appears to be in a relatively stable, albeit cautious state, with single family starts down 2.3% year-on-year (y/y), while multis are down 4.6%.
March 17, 2025
U.S. Retail Sales (February 2025)
Retail and food services sales rose just 0.2% month-on-month (m/m), disappointing expectations for a stronger rebound following January's contraction. Data revisions also expanded January's contraction to -1.2% m/m from the initially reported 0.9% decline.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
