Commentaries
October 24, 2025
U.S. Consumer Price Index (September 2025)
September's inflation report came in a bit softer than expected, thanks to a sharp cooling in primary shelter costs. Elsewhere, there were plenty of signs to suggest that elevated inflationary pressures are likely to persist in months ahead.
October 15, 2025
U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book (October 2025)
Today's Beige Book sheds some light on how the U.S. economy fared through September and the first week of October. Overall, economic activity was little changed relative to the previous report and has remained modest. Looking across the twelve Fed Districts, three reported slight to modest growth, five reported no change, and four noted a slight softening
October 14, 2025
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (September 2025)
While a weaker showing, September's NFIB reading is basically in line with its historical average, but the subcomponents reveal a nuanced backdrop. In the absence of last month's (BLS) jobs report, today's NFIB report adds credence to the view that there was little progress made on the hiring front in September, with small business job creation stuck in shallow negative territory for several months now.
October 08, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (September 16-17, 2025)
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.25% to 4.00% in September, following data and data revisions in August that showed the labor market was both softening and weaker than previously revealed.
October 03, 2025
U.S. ISM Services Index (September 2025)
The sudden fall in today’s ISM report indicates that activity in the services sector expanded at the same pace in September compared to August, while expectations had been for August's gains in the index to be maintained. The reversal of last month's surge in new orders and sharp fall in business activity point to more fundamental weakness in the service sector.
September 26, 2025
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (August 2025)
Consumer spending and income growth both improved at a solid pace in August. Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month (m/m), the same as in the month prior. Growth in wages and salaries eased to 03% m/m from 0.5% in July, while government transfer payments rose at the same rate of 0.3% - an improvement from a flat print in the month prior.
September 17, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting (September 16-17, 2025)
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), lowering the target range to 4.00%-4.25%. The move comes after an extended 'pause', where policymakers had held the policy rate fixed at each of the five prior meetings.
September 17, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (August 2025)
Homebuilding activity declined in August as the rebound in the multi-family segment recorded over the past few months lost steam and building activity in the larger single-family market continued to fall modestly. Amid rising construction costs related to tariffs and softening demand conditions, in part stemming from the weakened labor market, homebuilders have remained cautious on aggregate.
September 05, 2025
U.S. Employment (August 2025)
There's no escaping that the labor market is softening, and quickly. Once again, there was a low response rate in the August survey, at less than 60%. This suggests we could see further downward revisions in next month's release when the response rate typically returns to 90% or more.
August 28, 2025
Real GDP (Q2-2025, second estimate)
The second estimate of Q2 real GDP was revised higher by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) – a sharp acceleration from Q1's contraction of 0.5%. The upward revision primarily reflected stronger investment and consumer spending relative to the advance estimate, which was partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and a larger gain in imports.
August 22, 2025
U.S. FOMC Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22, 2025)
Chair Powell struck a more dovish tone in today's speech, sending a clear signal that further policy easing is on the way. While a September cut is looking more likely, it is still not a guarantee and will largely hinge on the August employment and inflation reports.
July 03, 2025
U.S. Congress Prepares to Pass the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act
Despite House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, marathon speaking session, all indications are that Congressional Republicans have the votes to pass President Trump's signature legislative package to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, implement a handful of new consumer and business tax cuts, and increase defense and border security spending. The bill will also include cuts to spending on Medicaid and SNAP, in addition to repealing most of the clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
August 06, 2024
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (July 2024)
The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on banks' lending practices continued to show progress, as a lower share of banks reported tighter lending standards in the second quarter relative to the first quarter of 2024 on all loan categories.
