Commentaries
March 18, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (February 2025)
Homebuilding bounced back in February, almost completely offsetting January's slump. The longer-term picture shows a housing market that appears to be in a relatively stable, albeit cautious state, with single family starts down 2.3% year-on-year (y/y), while multis are down 4.6%.
March 17, 2025
U.S. Retail Sales (February 2025)
Retail and food services sales rose just 0.2% month-on-month (m/m), disappointing expectations for a stronger rebound following January's contraction. Data revisions also expanded January's contraction to -1.2% m/m from the initially reported 0.9% decline.
March 07, 2025
U.S. Employment (February 2025)
The U.S. economy added 151k jobs in February, only a touch below the consensus forecast of 160k. Payroll figures for December 2024 were revised higher by 16k (to 323k), while January was revised lower by 18k (to 125k), resulting in a total net revision of -2k over the two prior months.
March 04, 2025
U.S. Vehicle Sales (February 2025)
Light vehicle sales picked up in February as the effects of January's severe weather and typical seasonal trends diminished. February's reading reflects a relatively healthy picture of the market, but affordability challenges remain as auto financing rates ticked up in the new year.
February 21, 2025
U.S. Existing Home Sales (January 2025)
Existing home sales fell in January, breaking the 3-month winning streak that developed at the end of last year. This result was not entirely surprising given the elevated mortgage rate environment that persisted at the turn of the year, with rates hovering near 7%.
February 19, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (January 28-29, 2025)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates constant at the conclusion of its January 28-29 meeting. The minutes for this meeting, released today, confirmed that the FOMC is not in a hurry to reduce interest rates further.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
