Commentaries
September 02, 2025
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (August 2025)
Manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace in August as domestic demand expanded and the decline in foreign demand slowed. However, with a host of tariff policies coming into effect during the month, including the full slate of reciprocal tariffs and 50% tariffs on Brazil and India, manufacturing production slipped back into contraction territory and hiring activity remained notably subdued.
August 29, 2025
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (July 2025)
Consumer spending and income growth both improved in July. Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month (m/m), a hair above the market consensus forecast. Growth in wages and salaries picked up to 0.7% m/m from 0.1% in June, while government transfer payments were flat on the month.
August 28, 2025
Real GDP (Q2-2025, second estimate)
The second estimate of Q2 real GDP was revised higher by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) – a sharp acceleration from Q1's contraction of 0.5%. The upward revision primarily reflected stronger investment and consumer spending relative to the advance estimate, which was partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and a larger gain in imports.
August 22, 2025
U.S. FOMC Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22, 2025)
Chair Powell struck a more dovish tone in today's speech, sending a clear signal that further policy easing is on the way. While a September cut is looking more likely, it is still not a guarantee and will largely hinge on the August employment and inflation reports.
August 20, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (July 29-30, 2025)
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the target range of 4.25% to 4.50% at its last meeting in July. This decision was made prior to July's payrolls and CPI reports, which revealed a notable softening in the labor market as well as some evidence of strengthening core inflation.
August 19, 2025
U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (July 2025)
Homebuilding activity picked up to start the second half of the year as the multi-family segment recorded a strong month in the Midwest and South regions. However, the smaller multi-family segment is volatile and given the 10% decline in permits recorded during the month, we are likely to see a pullback of this gain over the coming months.
August 15, 2025
U.S. Retail Sales (July 2025)
Building on their gain in June, retail and food services sales continued to grow in July, advancing by 0.5% month-on-month (m/m). This was close to the market expectations for a 0.6% m/m increase, but slower than the upwardly revised 0.9% gain in June (previously reported as 0.6%).
August 12, 2025
U.S. Consumer Price Index (July 2025)
Core inflation gathered further momentum in July, rising by its fastest monthly pace since January and pushing the year-on-year measure back above 3%. Tariff passthrough continued to pressure goods prices higher with the breadth of categories now seeing price gains over the last three-months rising to 64% or the highest level since April 2023.
August 05, 2025
U.S. ISM Services Index (July 2025)
The ISM Services index gave back much of the previous month's gain, falling 0.7 points to 50.1 in July. This was well below the market consensus forecast for an improvement to 51.5. However, the number of industries reporting growth in July was a tick higher at 11 out of 18, compared to 10 in the previous two months.
August 05, 2025
U.S. Vehicle Sales (July 2025)
U.S. vehicle sales started the second half of 2025 on a strong footing, with volumes rising after two months of subdued sales following the tariff driven surge in March and April. Although some stabilization was expected in July, sales came in notably stronger than anticipated last month.
August 01, 2025
U.S. Employment (July 2025)
Wow! How quickly things can change! Not only did payrolls come in well below expectations, but revisions to May and June were meaningfully lower, resulting in an average pace of payroll gains that's running well below what's required to hold the unemployment rate steady. Elsewhere in the report, there were plenty of other signs of weakness.
July 30, 2025
U.S. FOMC Meeting (July 29-30, 2025)
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% target range for the fifth consecutive meeting. The 'pause' on rate cuts comes after the FOMC lowered the funds rate by a total of 100 basis points (bps) over the final three meetings of 2024.
July 03, 2025
U.S. Congress Prepares to Pass the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act
Despite House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, marathon speaking session, all indications are that Congressional Republicans have the votes to pass President Trump's signature legislative package to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, implement a handful of new consumer and business tax cuts, and increase defense and border security spending. The bill will also include cuts to spending on Medicaid and SNAP, in addition to repealing most of the clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
August 06, 2024
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (July 2024)
The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on banks' lending practices continued to show progress, as a lower share of banks reported tighter lending standards in the second quarter relative to the first quarter of 2024 on all loan categories.
