Commentaries
February 20, 2026
U.S. Supreme Court Rules Against Broad-Based Country Specific Tariffs Under IEEPA
On February 20th, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it would be upholding the lower courts rulings, which found the administration's use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to be unlawful.
February 12, 2026
U.S. Existing Home Sales (January 2026)
The positive home sales streak at the end of 2025 ended abruptly at the start of this year, with existing home sales taking a notable step back in January. Last month's activity reflects purchase decisions made primarily in December – a period when we saw weekly mortgage purchase applications trend consistently lower.
February 10, 2026
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (January 2026)
The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index came in at 99.3 in January, only a touch below its December reading of 99.5. The uncertainty index rose by 7 points to 91 (back to its November 2025 level), with a rise in owners reporting uncertainty about 'whether it is a good time to expand' being the main driver.
February 10, 2026
U.S. Retail Sales (December 2025)
Retail sales ended the year on a softer footing. After rising for two consecutive months, core sales took a breather in December, while the negative revisions to the previous two months suggest that retail spending had a bit less bounce in its step than previously reported.
February 02, 2026
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (January 2026)
The ISM Manufacturing Index improved solidly in January, rising by 4.7 points – well above expectations – to 52.6 from 47.9 in December. This marked the first time that the index rose above its 50-point threshold in almost a year, pointing to growth.
January 29, 2026
The U.S. Dollar's Tumble (January 29, 2026)
The U.S. dollar (USD) has depreciated meaningfully (~2.6% against major currency crosses) since January 16th as uncertainty about U.S. economic and trade policy has increased. That being said, the slide has abated in recent days after Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed the country's "strong dollar" policy.
January 14, 2026
U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book (January 2026)
The anecdotal evidence from today's Beige Book report points to a rebound in economic activity at the end of last year as the government reopened. Recent economic data also suggests that the impact of the lengthy government shutdown was smaller than feared.
November 12, 2025
U.S. Government Shutdown Update
The U.S. Senate narrowly passed a bipartisan deal that would end the federal government shutdown, which began on October 1st. Eight moderate Democratic Senators broke ranks and voted in favor of the bill, providing the 60-vote majority required to advance the continuing resolution (CR) through the Senate.
August 22, 2025
U.S. FOMC Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole Symposium (August 22, 2025)
Chair Powell struck a more dovish tone in today's speech, sending a clear signal that further policy easing is on the way. While a September cut is looking more likely, it is still not a guarantee and will largely hinge on the August employment and inflation reports.
July 03, 2025
U.S. Congress Prepares to Pass the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act
Despite House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, marathon speaking session, all indications are that Congressional Republicans have the votes to pass President Trump's signature legislative package to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, implement a handful of new consumer and business tax cuts, and increase defense and border security spending. The bill will also include cuts to spending on Medicaid and SNAP, in addition to repealing most of the clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
January 21, 2025
President Trump's Executive Orders on Climate Policy
As promised, Trump issued a sweeping executive order (EO) rescinding all of the previous administration's executive orders related to climate change, the clean energy transition and climate finance. A subsequent EO declared a national emergency on energy, establishing a completely new direction for energy policy in America.
October 02, 2024
U.S. Dockworker Strike (October 2024)
Thousands of dockworkers at several East and Gulf coast ports are on strike. Combined with other disruptions – i.e., Hurricane Helene and striking Boeing workers on the Pacific Northwest – these one-off events are poised to take some wind out of the economy's sails in the fourth quarter.
August 06, 2024
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (July 2024)
The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on banks' lending practices continued to show progress, as a lower share of banks reported tighter lending standards in the second quarter relative to the first quarter of 2024 on all loan categories.
