Business Investment
April 14, 2026
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March 2026)
The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points to 95.8 in March, disappointing market expectations for a more modest pullback to 97.9. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its 98-point historical average was at the time of the Liberation Day tariffs in April 2025. The drop came alongside a surge in the uncertainty index, which rose 4 points from 88 to 92, well above its historical average of 68.
March 12, 2026
2026 U.S. Business Investment Outlook: Larger than AI
Despite big shifts in trade policy, U.S. business investment was remarkably strong in 2025 – expanding by nearly 6% on a Q4/Q4 basis. However, nearly three-quarters of that growth was driven by investments in AI, while most other areas of investment were weak. Sizeable 2026 capex commitments by the hyperscalers suggest AI will remain a meaningful driver of investment growth.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
January 06, 2025
Climate Policy in a 2nd Trump Term – What’s on the Chopping Block?
Climate policy is set to take a major U-turn under Donald Trump’s second term. The president-elect will likely prioritize rolling back regulatory powers and direct spending that expanded significantly under President Biden.
September 13, 2024
U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications
Elections matter for the economy, but financial markets are likely to be particularly attuned to the current election cycle given America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The make-up of Congress will determine how much of the future President’s agenda can be implemented. A divided Congress will likely force the next President to make significant concessions relative to their current platform proposals.
