Consumer
September 16, 2025
Consumer Spending Loses Altitude as Policy Turbulence Spikes
Consumer spending has lost momentum. Inflation-adjusted consumption has been flat since December and growth is expected to remain sub-par through the middle of next year amid heightened economic uncertainty, a slowing labor market, higher inflation and other headwinds. In addition, broader structural headwinds—including resurgent student loan burdens, tighter immigration policy, and a stagnant housing market—are further constraining consumer activity, reinforcing a cautious outlook through the first half of 2026.
September 09, 2025
Economists’ Almanac Predicting Another Warm Year for U.S. Inflation
Higher tariffs have been slow to materialize in U.S. consumer prices. The stop-and-start rollout of trade policies, inventory stockpiling and a substitution away from highly tariffed Chinese goods have helped to mitigate the impact on goods inflation. However, these forces will play less of a role moving forward.
August 29, 2025
U.S. Personal Income & Spending (July 2025)
Consumer spending and income growth both improved in July. Personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month (m/m), a hair above the market consensus forecast. Growth in wages and salaries picked up to 0.7% m/m from 0.1% in June, while government transfer payments were flat on the month.
July 24, 2025
A Sea of Changes in Student Debt Market To Ramp Up Pressure on Borrowers
Student loans have been gradually returning to business as usual after prolonged pandemic relief programs. Most recently, credit reporting and unpaid debt collections have resumed, leading to a jump in delinquencies, and an increase in defaults on the horizon.
March 13, 2025
In Wealth We Trust: U.S. Household Balance Sheet Update
The new administration in the White House has brought a cloud of uncertainty, but if there’s one factor that would help U.S. households sleep better at night and spend more confidently, it’s their wealth cushion. Policy uncertainty has led to a correction in equity markets recently, with the S&P 500 erasing all its gains since the fall. However, the recent decline should still leave households with a sizeable wealth cushion.
December 09, 2024
Higher Rates Delay U.S. Housing Recovery, But Some Improvement Expected in 2025
After declining through the spring and summer, 30-year mortgage rates rebounded back near 7% this autumn on the back of rising bond yields. Strong economic data and policy-related uncertainty – notably around the new administration’s use of import tariffs – have been key catalysts behind this rate backup. As such, further upward pressure on rates in the near term can’t be ruled out.
October 17, 2024
Can’t Hold Me Down: U.S. Consumer Spending To See an Upgrade
The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently made annual benchmark revisions to its National Income & Product Accounts, which showed a stronger pace of economic and income growth in recent years, with a notable upgrade to personal income in H1-2024.
