Commodities & Industry
May 12, 2025
Clipped Wings: Impact of Reduced Tourism on the U.S. Economy
The dramatic policy shifts by the new adminsitration in Washington appear to be having a notable impact on travel. Both domestic and international travel are showing signs of strain. Evolving U.S. policies and stricter border security have prompted travelers to cancel or delay their trips, with overseas arrivals to the U.S. were down by about 12% year-over-year in March, with reductions observed across most regions.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
May 05, 2025
U.S. ISM Services Index (April 2025)
The service sector expanded in April, but the details are less encouraging. While the overall index improved, business activity declined and it looks as though the service sector is feeling the effects of tariffs coming into place in April, cutting activity and imports at the same time.
May 01, 2025
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (April 2025)
The ISM Manufacturing Index declined slightly in April, to 48.7 from 49.0 in March. Eleven of 18 industries reported growth for the month, up from nine in February. In another sign of slowing momentum, 41% of manufacturing GDP contracted in April, comparable to the 46% in March
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
January 28, 2025
Potential Hazards Ahead: Trade Risks in the North American Automotive Industry
The automotive industry accounts for over 10% of intraregional trade in North America, equating to hundreds of billions of dollars in cross-border trade flows and millions of jobs. Proposed blanket tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, if retaliated against in equal measure, would likely result in a material contraction in vehicle sales in all three North American nations as price increases would ripple through supply chains.
November 06, 2024
Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump
As of 11 AM ET, Donald Trump has secured 277 of the 538 Electoral College votes, becoming the 47th president. While ballots are still being counted, President Trump also looks to have won the popular vote, which has not happened for a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
October 22, 2024
U.S. Trade Vulnerabilities in Critical Minerals: Pressure Points Amid Rising Tensions
In 2022, the U.S. designated 50 minerals as critical to the economy and national security. These minerals are used in countless products including automobiles, energy systems, electronics, and military equipment. China dominates the global production of more than half of the critical minerals outlined by the U.S. government, which it has leveraged over the past year amid rising trade tensions between the two nations.
