Commodities & Industry
July 03, 2025
U.S. ISM Services Index (June 2025)
Today's ISM Services report was expected to return to expansion in June, after flirting with contraction in May, and is consistent with the June jobs report in reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. economy. Still, a reading of 50.8 is below the average of the past 12 months pointing to a softening in conditions in the services sector.
July 02, 2025
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2025)
Manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace in June as production picked up modestly. However, the industry remains sluggish overall, with domestic and foreign demand continuing to contract under current tariff policies and elevated uncertainty regarding their duration and future composition.
July 02, 2025
U.S. Vehicle Sales (June 2025)
The spring buying season was volatile this year, as tariffs on vehicles implemented in April motivated consumers to pull forward their purchases in advance of expected price increases. We are now on the backend of that trend, with sales activity offsetting the excess demand of months prior.
May 28, 2025
North American Auto Outlook 2025: Trade Headwinds to Stall Industry
At the start of 2025, the automotive industry was looking forward to another year of healthy sales growth, aided by affordability improvements from lower financing costs and continued solid gains in real household income. However, less than halfway through the year we have seen several aggressive trade policies announced by the new U.S. administration which are expected to weigh on the outlook over the coming years.
May 12, 2025
Clipped Wings: Impact of Reduced Tourism on the U.S. Economy
The dramatic policy shifts by the new adminsitration in Washington appear to be having a notable impact on travel. Both domestic and international travel are showing signs of strain. Evolving U.S. policies and stricter border security have prompted travelers to cancel or delay their trips, with overseas arrivals to the U.S. were down by about 12% year-over-year in March, with reductions observed across most regions.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
April 02, 2025
U.S. Liberation Day Binds The World To High Tariffs
The U.S. administration announced broad reciprocal tariffs today, targeting all trading partners, and not just the countries that run large trade surpluses with the U.S. The tariffs will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
March 27, 2025
U.S. Tariffs on Automobiles Announced
President Trump announced that on April 3rd, the U.S. will place 25% tariffs on all imported passenger cars and light trucks. However, imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico that are compliant with the USMCA will face the 25% tariff only on the value of content produced outside of the U.S.
January 28, 2025
Potential Hazards Ahead: Trade Risks in the North American Automotive Industry
The automotive industry accounts for over 10% of intraregional trade in North America, equating to hundreds of billions of dollars in cross-border trade flows and millions of jobs. Proposed blanket tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, if retaliated against in equal measure, would likely result in a material contraction in vehicle sales in all three North American nations as price increases would ripple through supply chains.
November 06, 2024
Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump
As of 11 AM ET, Donald Trump has secured 277 of the 538 Electoral College votes, becoming the 47th president. While ballots are still being counted, President Trump also looks to have won the popular vote, which has not happened for a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
October 22, 2024
U.S. Trade Vulnerabilities in Critical Minerals: Pressure Points Amid Rising Tensions
In 2022, the U.S. designated 50 minerals as critical to the economy and national security. These minerals are used in countless products including automobiles, energy systems, electronics, and military equipment. China dominates the global production of more than half of the critical minerals outlined by the U.S. government, which it has leveraged over the past year amid rising trade tensions between the two nations.
