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Economy

Hurry Up & Wait: Congressional Fiscal Priorities in the First 100 Days
February 21, 2025 Hurry Up & Wait: Congressional Fiscal Priorities in the First 100 Days The 119th session of Congress is halfway through its first 100 days with a multitude of goals they want to, and in some cases need to, achieve within the coming months. However, razor thin margins of majority have complicated the ability of the Republican trifecta in the House of Representatives, Senate, and White House to implement the legislative priorities of the new federal government.
U.S. East Coast Trade Exposure: Less is More When Tariffs Hang in the Balance
February 13, 2025 U.S. East Coast Trade Exposure: Less is More When Tariffs Hang in the Balance Canada, Mexico, China and the EU are America’s top trading partners. The potential for tariffs raises uncertainty for many industries along the East Coast. The impact of tariffs will not be borne equally by all states.
Medicaid Unlikely to Dodge the DOGE
January 22, 2025 Medicaid Unlikely to Dodge the DOGE The U.S. federal deficit widened to $1.8 trillion or 6.4% of GDP in fiscal year 2024. This is more than double the annual deficit averaged over the 50-year period preceding the pandemic, as outlays – measured as a share of GDP – remain elevated relative to revenues . In response, the Trump administration has promised to rein in all “wasteful” federal spending and has created a special task force known as the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which will be led by Elon Musk.
Canada-U.S. Trade Relationship Infographic
January 21, 2025 Canada-U.S. Trade Relationship Infographic Infographic that explores the strong trade relationship between Canada and the United States. Canada is the largest export market for the U.S., while maintaining a small trade deficit. Additionally, Canada is a net importer of $5 billion in U.S. automotive products, highlighting the deep economic ties between the two nations.
Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade
January 21, 2025 Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade In addition to border security concerns, Trump has argued that “the United States can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits that Canada needs to stay afloat,” claiming that the U.S. subsidizes Canada to the tune of US$200 billion annually. How “massive” is the deficit and is there validity to this claim of subsidization?
Higher Rates Delay U.S. Housing Recovery, But Some Improvement Expected in 2025
December 09, 2024 Higher Rates Delay U.S. Housing Recovery, But Some Improvement Expected in 2025 After declining through the spring and summer, 30-year mortgage rates rebounded back near 7% this autumn on the back of rising bond yields. Strong economic data and policy-related uncertainty – notably around the new administration’s use of import tariffs – have been key catalysts behind this rate backup. As such, further upward pressure on rates in the near term can’t be ruled out.
Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump
November 06, 2024 Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump As of 11 AM ET, Donald Trump has secured 277 of the 538 Electoral College votes, becoming the 47th president. While ballots are still being counted, President Trump also looks to have won the popular vote, which has not happened for a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
Can’t Hold Me Down: U.S. Consumer Spending To See an Upgrade
October 17, 2024 Can’t Hold Me Down: U.S. Consumer Spending To See an Upgrade The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently made annual benchmark revisions to its National Income & Product Accounts, which showed a stronger pace of economic and income growth in recent years, with a notable upgrade to personal income in H1-2024.
U.S. Presidential Elections and Stock Markets: It’s the Economy…Obviously
October 15, 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections and Stock Markets: It’s the Economy…Obviously The U.S. Presidential election is just weeks away and investors are quickly turning their attention to the potential implications for financial markets. Would a Trump or Harris win be better for the stock market?
U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications
September 13, 2024 U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications Elections matter for the economy, but financial markets are likely to be particularly attuned to the current election cycle given America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The make-up of Congress will determine how much of the future President’s agenda can be implemented. A divided Congress will likely force the next President to make significant concessions relative to their current platform proposals.