U.S. Retail Sales (March 2026)

U.S. retail sales surge in March on higher gas price 

• Retail and food services sales surged by 1.7% month-over-month (m/m) in March, buoyed by higher gasoline prices, with sales at gasoline stations jumping by 15.5% from the previous month. Adjusting for inflation, the volume of sales was up 0.8% on the month.  
• Sales of autos and parts also increased, rising by 0.5%. Building materials and garden retailers maintained momentum, marking a fifth consecutive monthly increase (+0.7% m/m). 
• Looking at the “control group”—which excludes volatile sales of gasoline, autos & parts and building materials and garden equipment— sales also increased robustly (+0.7% m/m). Sales were up across most categories, but the biggest gains were seen in furniture and home furnishings stores (+2.2% m/m), general merchandise stores (+1.0% m/m), and health and personal care stores (+0.5% m/m). Meanwhile, sales were flat at the clothing and sporting goods stores, and declined for the miscellaneous store retailers (-1.0% m/m).
• Sales at non-store retailers, mostly online sales, increased for the third consecutive month (+1.0% m/m), and were up 10.1% from the year-ago.
• Spending at bars and restaurants - the only service category included in the report – was little changed, edging higher by just 0.1% m/m.

Key Implications

• As expected, retail and food services—which are measured in nominal terms—rose in March, fuelled by a 25% month-over-month increase in gasoline prices. Spending at gasoline stations accounted for 70% of the monthly growth in sales. However, it was not just higher spending on gas that drove the increase, as gains were broad-based, with sales in the control group also rising significantly during the month and price-adjusted volumes posting a solid advance. One note of caution was the lack of growth in spending on dining out, suggesting that consumers remain price sensitive and were perhaps trying to cut back on discretionary spending and unnecessary driving amid higher gas prices. Robust spending online also suggests that consumers continue to look for deals.
• While gasoline prices have retreated from their peak following some de-escalation of U.S.–Iran tensions, the situation remains uncertain and prices remain elevated— something that is likely to persist for some time (see report). In the near-term, higher tax refund checks – which are running about 11% higher than a year ago – and lower income taxes will likely shelter consumers. However, going forward households may pull back on some discretionary spending to offset higher gas prices and airline fares, particularly during a busy summer travel season.

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