Canadian Retail Sales (November 2025)

Retail sales rebound in November, lose steam in December 

• Retail sales rose 1.3% month-on-month (m/m) in November, stronger than Statistics Canada's 1.2% advanced estimate.
• After adjusting for inflation, sales volumes rose by a more modest 1.1% m/m.
• Auto sales continued to edge higher, rising 0.3% m/m in November.
• Receipts at gas stations and fuel vendors rose 2.0% m/m, driven by stronger demand, with volumes also up 0.7% m/m.
• Core sales – excluding auto sales and receipts at gas stations – rebounded after two straight months of declines, rising 1.6% m/m. 
• Gains were broad-based across most categories, led by a strong rebound in food and beverage retailers (+3.0% m/m). Part of this strength reflects volatility in beer, wine and liquor retailers, which bounced back after a sharp decline in previous month due to a labour dispute in British Columbia. Other notable contributors included clothing and clothing accessories stores (+2.4% m/m) building material & garden supplies dealers (+2.1% m/m). 
• The two laggards were miscellaneous store retailers (-0.5% m/m) and electronics and appliance stores (-0.2% m/m).
• E-commerce sales declined by 2.8% m/m in November. 
• Statistics Canada's advanced estimate points to moderation in December, with sales projected to decline 0.5% m/m.

Key Implications

• November delivered a welcome rebound, but there is little to get excited about. Part of the strength reflects volatility tied to a labour dispute, rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The pick-up follows a weak and downwardly revised October and is already giving way to softer momentum in December. Looking through the monthly volatility, the underlying trend in real sales remains negative. Soft consumer sentiment is likely a key factor: the Bank of Canada's latest consumer survey shows households are feeling increasingly pessimistic about their finances, weighing on spending decisions.
• Our outlook for Q4 real consumption growth remains subdued, tracking close to 0.9% (quarter-on-quarter, annualized). There is some upside risk from services, as our internal credit and debit card data point to building momentum toward year-end. Still, we don’t think expect it to be large enough to lift overall consumption above a below-trend pace.    

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