Canadian Retail Sales (June 2026)

Retail sales rise in June, real activity accelerates.

• Retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month (m/m) in June, ahead of Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of 0.4%.
• In volume terms, retail sales grew for the second consecutive month, rising a solid 1.5% m/m and pointing to strengthening in underlying demand. The healthy print brings quarterly sales gains to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.
• Motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 1.0% m/m increase – the third consecutive monthly gain – once again driven by higher sales at new car dealers (+1.5%).
• Receipts at gasoline stations and fuel vendors declined 4.1% m/m for the first time in four months. Volumes, however, rose a sizeable 4.2%, suggesting demand rebounded as gasoline prices fell.
• Core retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline) rose a healthy 1.5%, marking a second consecutive monthly gain and accelerating from a more muted +0.5% m/m pace in May.
• Gains were led by general merchandise stores (+2.7%) and clothing retailers (+3.1%), while weaker sales at food and beverage retailers (-0.4%) took some froth off the headline.
• Retail e-commerce sales rose a whopping 9.9% m/m in June.
• Statistics Canada’s advance estimate points to a reversal with a 0.8% m/m decline in July.
  
   
   

Key Implications

• Another solid month for retail sales, with both core spending and real activity rising for a second consecutive month. Taken together, the data point to ongoing real personal consumption growth in Q2 despite rising prices. Second-quarter GDP and consumption data are released next Friday, so we won’t have to wait long for the details on how consumers responded to the rise in inflation.
• Statistics Canada’s advance estimate points to a sizable decline in July, suggesting activity cooled heading into the third quarter as energy prices rose again. Our internal TD Spend data, which excludes some large categories like vehicle purchases, shows goods spending was flat in July.
  
   

Disclaimer

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