Updated Publications
May 19, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
As the conflict in the Middle East extends deeper into the year, this quarter's Q&A focuses on what it means for the global economy, inflation and interest rates. We also take a look at the risks creeping into private credit, job creation and where things stand on U.S. tariffs and the upcoming USMCA review. For Canada, we tackle whether various government policy initiatives can move the needle on investment and the struggling housing sector and potential economic impacts from the World Cup games.
April 29, 2026
2026 Newfoundland and Labrador Budget
Newfoundland and Labrador’s 2026 budget projects a deficit of $688 million in FY 2026/27 (or 1.4% of GDP), extending the province’s three-year run of red ink. Importantly, the province does not forecast a path to balance. Budget deficits widen to over 2% of GDP over the next couple of years before settling at current levels by 2030.
April 28, 2026
2026 Spring Economic Update
After months of deficit figures coming in lighter than expected, the Spring Economic Update showed a deficit of $66.9 billion in fiscal 2025-26 versus the $78.3 billion expected in Budget 2025. Beyond the better-than-expected starting point, the remainder of the fiscal projection is virtually unchanged with total deficits through 2029-2030 totaling $243.4 billion, versus $242.3 billion in the Budget.
April 23, 2026
Provincial Budget Season Wrap-Up
Provincial governments entered this budget season with less fiscal room, reflecting weaker budget balances, elevated debt, and a softer macro backdrop. As a result, budgets were generally cautious. Indeed, program spending increases were restrained and focused on core services. Policy measures tended to be pragmatic rather than ambitious, while capital spending remained a key feature—adding to already rising debt loads and future interest costs.
April 15, 2026
2026 Prince Edward Island Budget
In Budget 2026, PEI is forecasting deep deficits that persist over the forecast horizon. In FY 2026/27, the deficit is pegged at $409.9 million. This clocks in at a heavy 3.5% of GDP – harkening back to the threatening shortfalls of the mid-1990s. It’s also on track to be the largest shortfall in Canada this year relative to the size of the economy. These deficits, alongside capital spending, also drive a significant projected increase in the Island’s debt burden over the forecast horizon.
March 26, 2026
2026 Ontario Budget
Budget 2026 delivers tax relief, but modest revenue growth and weak near term economic momentum keep deficits elevated. Program spending growth is restrained – with healthcare leading and education lagging. The path back to balance hinges on sustaining very slow spending gains over the planning horizon. Heavy capital investment and housing stimulus may support growth and productivity, but at the cost of higher borrowing needs and a rising debt to GDP ratio.
March 26, 2026
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Steep Downgrades Amid Persistent Housing Headwinds
Weaker-than-expected performances in 2025Q4 and especially 2026Q1 have prompted a steep downgrade to our forecasts for 2026 annual average Canadian home resales and price growth. While severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada weighed on activity early in the year, weakness was also evident in B.C., where conditions were more temperate. Sales are likely to take most of the year to recoup first quarter losses, as housing remains constrained by a subdued economy, heightened uncertainty, and ongoing cost of living pressures.
March 18, 2026
2026 New Brunswick Budget
New Brunswick is expected to record a deficit of 2.7% of GDP in FY 2026/27. Shortfalls improve only by a razor thin margin over the three-year projection horizon. The Province’s debt burden is expected to record steady increases over the next several years. At 30.6% in FY 2026/27, New Brunswick’s debt-to-GDP ratio would still be on the lower end of Canada’s provincial jurisdictions.
March 18, 2026
Provincial Economic Forecast
Canada’s economy looks set for a year of modest growth in 2026. Provincially, energy-producers like Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador and B.C. are forecast to outperform. Higher energy prices will challenge oil importers like Ontario and Quebec, layering on a new headwind alongside trade frictions with the U.S. Higher energy costs will also weigh on many Atlantic provinces in the near-term, given energy accounts for a larger share of household budgets.
March 17, 2026
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Middle East conflict has not just lifted oil prices, but forecast uncertainty is even snaking its way into other areas like food security for some nations. The economic fallout hinges on duration. Our baseline outlook assumes a short-lived conflict, implying a temporary impact on inflation and growth; a prolonged escalation would materially worsen the global outlook.
February 27, 2026
2026 Alberta Budget
Alberta is projecting a $9.4 billion deficit in FY 2026 27. A cumulative shortfall of almost $24 billion is now expected across the 3-year forecast horizon. Net debt to GDP is expected to turn higher to 10.5% in FY 2026 27, and to nudge upward to 13% by FY 2028 29. Weaker oil prices drive revenue softness, while modest tax measures and spending restraint help, but do not restore balance within the horizon.
February 24, 2026
2026 Nova Scotia Budget
Budget 2026 revealed that the deficit and debt pressures faced by Nova Scotia are intensifying. The Province is projecting its highest deficit since FY 2013/14 at 1.7% of GDP (about $1.2B) in FY 2026/27. Net debt, meanwhile, is expected to rise from 35% in FY 2025/26 to 39.4% of GDP this year and is forecast to breach 40% in the outer years.
November 06, 2025
2025 Ontario Fall Fiscal Update: Still Eyeing Balanced Budgets
With the province rolling out a bevy of supports for the economy in Budget 2025, Ontario’s fall fiscal update contains little in the way of marquee measures. However, the province is pledging to cut the HST on new homes valued at under $1 million – a move that should support demand and, ultimately, homebuilding activity.
November 04, 2025
Federal Budget 2025 – Competitiveness focused, but few surprises
The Carney government released its first budget, drawing a line in the sand relative to the previous Liberal government. Gone are the hundreds of income measures sprinkled across different sectors and populations in the Canadian economy. Instead, a new focus on government efficiency and reducing operational costs to fund big spending initiatives on infrastructure, defense and housing, all with the aim of re-orienting Canada’s economy east-to-west, diversifying trade across all three oceans, and supporting business investment to “supercharge” growth and productivity.
