Updated Publications
April 11, 2025
2025 Prince Edward Island Budget
Prince Edward Island's deficit is pegged at a meaty 1.7% of GDP in the upcoming fiscal year, as expenditures are juiced by program spending and a new contingency for tariff-related growth risks. Economic growth is expected to be solid in 2025. In turn, revenue growth is forecast to be firm, despite tax relief measures for households and businesses.
March 26, 2025
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Housing on Shaky Foundation Amid Tariff Turbulence
The one-two punch of winter storms and tariff-related economic uncertainty sent a chill through Canadian housing markets in the first quarter. We’re now tracking a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single digit drop in Canadian average home prices.
March 21, 2025
2025 Manitoba Budget
Manitoba’s budget deficit is forecast to shrink to 0.8% of GDP this fiscal year, while both the ongoing shortfall and robust capital spending lift its debt burden by 0.8 ppts. However, those forecasts were made with relatively strong real GDP growth assumptions, which are threatened by the U.S.-Canada trade war.
March 21, 2025
Long-Term Forecast
Canadian economic growth is expected to run below trend in 2025 and 2026, before finding greater balance in 2027. Slowing population growth and the impact of tariffs on business and consumer sentiment are the drivers of lower growth. Consumer spending had been improving on lower interest rates, but we expect this to act as a drag on growth as higher prices cut into spending power. This has the unemployment rate moving above its long-run level until 2027.
March 20, 2025
2025 Saskatchewan Budget
Saskatchewan is back to projecting surpluses after a brief dip into the red ink last fiscal year. As it stands, Saskatchewan is the only province expecting a surplus for the year ahead. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to creep up in the year ahead, but the Province will likely retain its position as one of the least indebted coast-to-coast.
March 19, 2025
Provincial Economic Forecast
We’ve slashed our real GDP growth forecasts for this year from coast-to-coast, reflecting the impact of the Canada-U.S. trade war. Solid Q1 activity across regions will buffer annual averages, but we foresee a mild recession unfolding for Canada in the middle-part of this year.
March 18, 2025
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
Once again, policy shifts from the Trump administration are the main forecast theme this quarter, underpinning a downgrade to the global outlook. There is no way of knowing with certainty what tomorrow will bring in this on-again, off-again policy environment, forcing us to lay out a balanced set of assumptions to underpin this forecast cycle.
March 05, 2025
2025 British Columbia Budget
The B.C. government has tabled a generally restrained spending plan as new tariff risks inject considerable uncertainty into the province’s outlook. Downwardly-revised economic and revenue growth will put B.C.’s finances deeper into red ink. The budget deficit for FY 2025/26 is forecast to reach $10.9 billion – or 2.5% of GDP – with the cumulative deficit over the three-year planning horizon over $8 billion higher than the Budget tabled a year ago.
February 19, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
*As of March 4th, the U.S. has moved ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. We address economic implications within this Q&A, with forecasts available in Table 1. President Trump has issued a record number of executive orders (EOs) and is spinning markets with new tariff announcements by the day. No surprise, this quarter's Q&A is dominated by discussions on potential impacts. We have changed our forecasts for interest rates and economic growth, most notably for Canada.
February 18, 2025
2025 Nova Scotia Budget
Unexpectedly strong revenues drove what’s now expected to be an $80 million surplus for Nova Scotia in FY 2024/25, a marked difference from the near $500 million shortfall projected in last year’s budget. Still, this black ink is not expected to last, with the province forecasting an $697 million shortfall (before a newly introduced $200 million contingency fund is factored in) in FY 2025/26.
December 16, 2024
2024 Federal Economic Statement
It was a wild day in Canadian politics, with the Finance Minister resigning ahead of the Fall Economic Statement (FES). This did not preclude the FES from being tabled, giving us some window into the government’s economic plan in the face of a second Trump administration. However, political uncertainty looms large with a significant cabinet shuffle and an election looming.
October 30, 2024
2024 Ontario Fall Fiscal Update: Staying the Course on Deficit Reduction
In its fall fiscal update, the Ontario government maintained its path back to balance and formally announced previously-telegraphed measures (rebate cheques, extension of the gas and fuel tax cuts) that will support household incomes in the coming year. However, the road back to black ink will remain challenging, as it will require spending growth to be held at a very modest pace. Fortunately, the government is benefitting from a better starting point, with this year’s deficit now pegged at $6.6 billion, versus about $10 billion in the spring budget.
