Updated Publications
October 30, 2024
2024 Ontario Fall Fiscal Update: Staying the Course on Deficit Reduction
In its fall fiscal update, the Ontario government maintained its path back to balance and formally announced previously-telegraphed measures (rebate cheques, extension of the gas and fuel tax cuts) that will support household incomes in the coming year. However, the road back to black ink will remain challenging, as it will require spending growth to be held at a very modest pace. Fortunately, the government is benefitting from a better starting point, with this year’s deficit now pegged at $6.6 billion, versus about $10 billion in the spring budget.
September 26, 2024
Canadian Housing Outlook: When the Trickle Becomes a Flood
The Canadian 5-year bond yield has declined over 100 bps since early May, while the Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate 3 times (with two more likely on tap this year). In short, the interest rate environment has significantly improved. Housing market activity is stirring, yet Canadian sales gains have, thus far, trailed what could typically be expected given this rush of rate relief.
September 25, 2024
Long-Term Forecast
Following an economic slowdown in 2023 and 2024, Canadian output is expected to rebound in 2025 and 2026. Thereafter, real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to its long-run average of around 1.8% annually. Population growth is expected to decelerate in the coming years after its recent boom, boosting labour productivity growth.
September 19, 2024
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
Although our global growth forecast has barely budged, it overlooks divergent paths between countries. The U.S. and Canada have benefited from upgrades, while previous growth stalwarts like China and Germany are getting the short end of the stick.
September 19, 2024
Provincial Economic Forecast
We’re most of the way through 2024, and the data seems to be adhering to our long-held view that the Atlantic Region and Prairies would outperform, in terms of GDP growth, this year. We continue to expect Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. to trail the pack. However, the former two provinces have benefitted from growth upgrades for 2024, leaving B.C. as the laggard.
August 14, 2024
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
What a difference a quarter can make. Financial markets have done a 180 relative to our prior Q&A. From focusing on the risks of persistent U.S. inflation and punting out rate cuts largely into 2025, to now worrying that the Fed is behind the curve and has not cut fast enough!
