Updated Publications
March 18, 2026
2026 New Brunswick Budget
New Brunswick is expected to record a deficit of 2.7% of GDP in FY 2026/27. Shortfalls improve only by a razor thin margin over the three-year projection horizon. The Province’s debt burden is expected to record steady increases over the next several years. At 30.6% in FY 2026/27, New Brunswick’s debt-to-GDP ratio would still be on the lower end of Canada’s provincial jurisdictions.
March 18, 2026
Provincial Economic Forecast
Canada’s economy looks set for a year of modest growth in 2026. Provincially, energy-producers like Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador and B.C. are forecast to outperform. Higher energy prices will challenge oil importers like Ontario and Quebec, layering on a new headwind alongside trade frictions with the U.S. Higher energy costs will also weigh on many Atlantic provinces in the near-term, given energy accounts for a larger share of household budgets.
March 17, 2026
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Middle East conflict has not just lifted oil prices, but forecast uncertainty is even snaking its way into other areas like food security for some nations. The economic fallout hinges on duration. Our baseline outlook assumes a short-lived conflict, implying a temporary impact on inflation and growth; a prolonged escalation would materially worsen the global outlook.
February 27, 2026
2026 Alberta Budget
Alberta is projecting a $9.4 billion deficit in FY 2026 27. A cumulative shortfall of almost $24 billion is now expected across the 3-year forecast horizon. Net debt to GDP is expected to turn higher to 10.5% in FY 2026 27, and to nudge upward to 13% by FY 2028 29. Weaker oil prices drive revenue softness, while modest tax measures and spending restraint help, but do not restore balance within the horizon.
February 24, 2026
2026 Nova Scotia Budget
Budget 2026 revealed that the deficit and debt pressures faced by Nova Scotia are intensifying. The Province is projecting its highest deficit since FY 2013/14 at 1.7% of GDP (about $1.2B) in FY 2026/27. Net debt, meanwhile, is expected to rise from 35% in FY 2025/26 to 39.4% of GDP this year and is forecast to breach 40% in the outer years.
February 12, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The start of 2026 sparked plenty of economic shifts for our Q&A. From swings in the U.S. Dollar to President Trump's new nominee for Fed Chair, to various housing policy shifts under consideration on the U.S. side. Amidst it all, an economy once again displaying surprising strength. For Canada, questions address an economy continuing to adjust to U.S. tariffs, the upcoming CUSMA review, mortgage renewals and consumer impacts, and a stalling housing market recovery.
January 19, 2026
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Activity to Remain Subdued This Year
After ending 2025 on a soft note, a gradual, modest recovery in Canadian housing is likely on tap in 2026, supported by pent-up demand. Restraining a stronger recovery will be elevated economic uncertainty, a subdued job market and a leveling off in interest rates with the Bank of Canada likely to stay on the sidelines this year.
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets
are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year.
Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices
on the firm side in 2026.
November 06, 2025
2025 Ontario Fall Fiscal Update: Still Eyeing Balanced Budgets
With the province rolling out a bevy of supports for the economy in Budget 2025, Ontario’s fall fiscal update contains little in the way of marquee measures. However, the province is pledging to cut the HST on new homes valued at under $1 million – a move that should support demand and, ultimately, homebuilding activity.
November 04, 2025
Federal Budget 2025 – Competitiveness focused, but few surprises
The Carney government released its first budget, drawing a line in the sand relative to the previous Liberal government. Gone are the hundreds of income measures sprinkled across different sectors and populations in the Canadian economy. Instead, a new focus on government efficiency and reducing operational costs to fund big spending initiatives on infrastructure, defense and housing, all with the aim of re-orienting Canada’s economy east-to-west, diversifying trade across all three oceans, and supporting business investment to “supercharge” growth and productivity.
June 10, 2025
Support Measures Cap 2025 Provincial Budget Season
Provincial governments faced the difficult task of tabling their annual budgets amid mounting headwinds from U.S. trade policies. Provincial budget season revealed expectations for weaker economic growth and government revenues across the board, manifesting in provincial bottom lines.
May 15, 2025
2025 Ontario Budget
Budget 2025 largely follows through on previously announced measures meant to buffer the economy through a near-term bout of turbulence. Some $1.4 billion in tax relief measures are introduced for this fiscal year, although the scale of potential support to the economy increases considerably when other measures, like WSIB rebates and the 6-month deferral of business taxes are considered.
April 11, 2025
2025 Prince Edward Island Budget
Prince Edward Island's deficit is pegged at a meaty 1.7% of GDP in the upcoming fiscal year, as expenditures are juiced by program spending and a new contingency for tariff-related growth risks. Economic growth is expected to be solid in 2025. In turn, revenue growth is forecast to be firm, despite tax relief measures for households and businesses.
March 21, 2025
2025 Manitoba Budget
Manitoba’s budget deficit is forecast to shrink to 0.8% of GDP this fiscal year, while both the ongoing shortfall and robust capital spending lift its debt burden by 0.8 ppts. However, those forecasts were made with relatively strong real GDP growth assumptions, which are threatened by the U.S.-Canada trade war.
March 20, 2025
2025 Saskatchewan Budget
Saskatchewan is back to projecting surpluses after a brief dip into the red ink last fiscal year. As it stands, Saskatchewan is the only province expecting a surplus for the year ahead. The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to creep up in the year ahead, but the Province will likely retain its position as one of the least indebted coast-to-coast.
December 16, 2024
2024 Federal Economic Statement
It was a wild day in Canadian politics, with the Finance Minister resigning ahead of the Fall Economic Statement (FES). This did not preclude the FES from being tabled, giving us some window into the government’s economic plan in the face of a second Trump administration. However, political uncertainty looms large with a significant cabinet shuffle and an election looming.
