Updated Publications
March 18, 2025
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
Once again, policy shifts from the Trump administration are the main forecast theme this quarter, underpinning a downgrade to the global outlook. There is no way of knowing with certainty what tomorrow will bring in this on-again, off-again policy environment, forcing us to lay out a balanced set of assumptions to underpin this forecast cycle.
March 05, 2025
2025 British Columbia Budget
The B.C. government has tabled a generally restrained spending plan as new tariff risks inject considerable uncertainty into the province’s outlook. Downwardly-revised economic and revenue growth will put B.C.’s finances deeper into red ink. The budget deficit for FY 2025/26 is forecast to reach $10.9 billion – or 2.5% of GDP – with the cumulative deficit over the three-year planning horizon over $8 billion higher than the Budget tabled a year ago.
February 19, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
*As of March 4th, the U.S. has moved ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. We address economic implications within this Q&A, with forecasts available in Table 1. President Trump has issued a record number of executive orders (EOs) and is spinning markets with new tariff announcements by the day. No surprise, this quarter's Q&A is dominated by discussions on potential impacts. We have changed our forecasts for interest rates and economic growth, most notably for Canada.
February 18, 2025
2025 Nova Scotia Budget
Unexpectedly strong revenues drove what’s now expected to be an $80 million surplus for Nova Scotia in FY 2024/25, a marked difference from the near $500 million shortfall projected in last year’s budget. Still, this black ink is not expected to last, with the province forecasting an $697 million shortfall (before a newly introduced $200 million contingency fund is factored in) in FY 2025/26.
December 19, 2024
Canadian Housing Outlook: Sunnier Skies Ahead
A major change relative to our September projection is the steep upside surprise that we’re tracking for Canadian home sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. Indeed, sales probably chalked up a gain of about 12% q/q in Q4, lifted by B.C. and Ontario.
December 18, 2024
Long-Term Forecast
Following an economic slowdown in 2023 and 2024, Canadian output is expected to rebound to around trend in 2025 and 2026. Thereafter, real GDP growth is expected to move to around 1.9% to 2.0% from 2027 to 2029. Population growth is expected to decelerate in the coming years after its recent boom, boosting labour productivity growth.
December 16, 2024
2024 Federal Economic Statement
It was a wild day in Canadian politics, with the Finance Minister resigning ahead of the Fall Economic Statement (FES). This did not preclude the FES from being tabled, giving us some window into the government’s economic plan in the face of a second Trump administration. However, political uncertainty looms large with a significant cabinet shuffle and an election looming.
October 30, 2024
2024 Ontario Fall Fiscal Update: Staying the Course on Deficit Reduction
In its fall fiscal update, the Ontario government maintained its path back to balance and formally announced previously-telegraphed measures (rebate cheques, extension of the gas and fuel tax cuts) that will support household incomes in the coming year. However, the road back to black ink will remain challenging, as it will require spending growth to be held at a very modest pace. Fortunately, the government is benefitting from a better starting point, with this year’s deficit now pegged at $6.6 billion, versus about $10 billion in the spring budget.
