Updated Publications
December 19, 2024
Canadian Housing Outlook: Sunnier Skies Ahead
A major change relative to our September projection is the steep upside surprise that we’re tracking for Canadian home sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. Indeed, sales probably chalked up a gain of about 12% q/q in Q4, lifted by B.C. and Ontario.
December 18, 2024
Long-Term Forecast
Following an economic slowdown in 2023 and 2024, Canadian output is expected to rebound to around trend in 2025 and 2026. Thereafter, real GDP growth is expected to move to around 1.9% to 2.0% from 2027 to 2029. Population growth is expected to decelerate in the coming years after its recent boom, boosting labour productivity growth.
December 16, 2024
2024 Federal Economic Statement
It was a wild day in Canadian politics, with the Finance Minister resigning ahead of the Fall Economic Statement (FES). This did not preclude the FES from being tabled, giving us some window into the government’s economic plan in the face of a second Trump administration. However, political uncertainty looms large with a significant cabinet shuffle and an election looming.
December 12, 2024
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
Stronger-than-expected growth momentum would have set the stage for 2025 growth upgrades in both the U.S. and Canada. However, in light of downside policy risks – notably U.S. tariffs – projected growth rates have been kept largely intact relative to September.
November 27, 2024
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
Investors must feel like 2024 has given them whiplash, as expectations for interest rates turn on a dime from one quarter to the next. The Trump trade is the latest catalyst, as the incoming administration's policies are perceived as inflationary, leading markets, and ourselves, to reduce the number of fed rate cuts expected.
October 30, 2024
2024 Ontario Fall Fiscal Update: Staying the Course on Deficit Reduction
In its fall fiscal update, the Ontario government maintained its path back to balance and formally announced previously-telegraphed measures (rebate cheques, extension of the gas and fuel tax cuts) that will support household incomes in the coming year. However, the road back to black ink will remain challenging, as it will require spending growth to be held at a very modest pace. Fortunately, the government is benefitting from a better starting point, with this year’s deficit now pegged at $6.6 billion, versus about $10 billion in the spring budget.
