Canadian Housing Starts (March 2025)

Housing starts pulled back in March

• Canadian housing starts came in at 214.2k annualized units in March, marking a 3% month-on-month (m/m) decline from February's robust level. The six-month moving average of starts dipped by 0.7% m/m to 235.3k units. 
• March's decline was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban starts down 4% m/m to 160.3k units. Meanwhile, urban single-detached starts inched higher by 1% to 43.0k units. 
• Urban starts were down in 4 of 10 provinces: 
  • Ontario was the largest drag on the overall total, as starts plunged 18k to 38.6k units. In contrast, starts jumped by 8k to 55.2k units in Quebec and rose by 1.6k to 29.2k units in B.C.
  • Starts increased across the Prairies (+2.4k to 67.7k units) lifted by Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Meanwhile, starts declined in Alberta. Starts edged higher in the Atlantic (+0.14k to 12.6k units), supported by gains in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Key Implications

• March's decline in housing starts surprised consensus expectations to the downside. However, it was consistent with our view that homebuilding will moderate amid past declines in demand and a sharp slowdown in population growth.
• This view is centered on a pullback in housing starts in Ontario (where condo construction is cratering). March's data was a glaring example, given the steep drop in starts in Canada's largest province last month. More broadly, Canadian homebuilding is likely to remain subdued moving forward amid economic uncertainty, weak population growth and elevated construction costs.           

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