Canadian Housing Starts (September 2026)

Canadian Data Release: Housing starts rose in September

• Canadian housing starts came in at 248.9k annualized units in September, up 3% month-on-month (m/m) relative to August. However, the six-month moving average (6-mma) was relatively flat at 250.4k units.
• Urban, multi-family starts advanced 6% m/m in September to 190.9k units. In contrast, there was a 9% m/m decline in single-detached starts (to 39.9k units).  
• Regionally, urban starts were up in 6 of 10 markets:  
• They advanced 7.3k to (51.1k units) in B.C, while climbing 3.3k to (a still low) 45.3k units in Ontario. Starts also increased 6.5k to 19.9k units in the Atlantic (lifted by New Brunswick), while rising by 3.0k (to 69.3k units) in the Prairies on the back of Manitoba.
• Starts fell notably in Quebec (-13.2k to 45.2k units) and Saskatchewan (-3.1k to 4.6k units) with smaller declines in parts of the Atlantic.

Key Implications

• Notable upward revisions to July and August reveals a stronger picture for homebuilding than previously thought. However, this still leaves starts 4% lower in Q3 relative to their second quarter average, signaling a weight on residential investment and GDP growth. Regionally, September's data reinforced long-standing trends, namely that starts are relatively elevated in the Prairies, Quebec, and the Atlantic region, boosted by the rental market. In contrast, starts are flat (on a 6-mma basis) in B.C. and are weak in Ontario.
• Moving forward, we see starts trending lower over the next few quarters, dragged down by weak population growth, elevated unsold inventories, high interest rates and past declines in pre-sales. However, the removal of the HST on new homes in Ontario this year has likely spurred some sales activity. Given lags between sales and starts, the latter could find some support from this policy in the back half of 2027.
   

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