Canadian Housing Starts (December 2025)

Housing starts flare higher to end 2025

• Canadian housing starts came in at a robust 282.4k annualized units in December, marking an 11% month-on-month (m/m) increase from November's level. The picture was unchanged on a trend basis, however, with the six-month moving average of starts clocking in at 264.4k units. 
• December's gain was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban starts up 14% m/m to 231.0k units. Meanwhile, urban single-detached starts were flat at 39.1k units. 
• Urban starts were up in 6 of 10 provinces: 
  
  • Ontario led the way with starts jumping nearly 40k to 93.9k units, although starts also gained in Quebec (+5k to 62.7k units), and B.C. (+6.3k to 46.4k units).
  • Despite a solid gain in Saskatchewan, declines in Manitoba and Alberta pulled down starts in the Prairies (-18.2k to 50.1k units). Meanwhile, starts dropped by 4.4k (to 17k units) in the Atlantic, weighed down by New Brunswick.

Key Implications

• December's firm gain left starts highly elevated when compared to historical trends and likely reflects momentum in purpose-built rental construction. However, starts were still about 6% lower quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter which, when paired with the decline in home sales, flags a decline in residential investment in 2025Q4 (in line with our view). December's gain was also concentrated in Ontario, where construction costs are elevated and pre-sales activity continues to be weak, meaning last month's gain is likely unsustainable. This message was echoed in the latest building permits report, which showed a steep pullback in building permits in Ontario in November 2025.
• Moving forward, we think that Canadian housing starts will moderate this year due to sharply slower population growth, rising vacancy rates across several regions, climbing unsold inventories, and weak pre-construction sales activity in the GTA market. On the other hand, federal initiatives like Building Canada Homes could provide upside support.     

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