Canadian Housing Starts (June 2025)

Housing starts rise in June

• Canadian housing starts came in at a healthy rate of 283.7k annualized units in June, following like-sized gains in April and May. Meanwhile, the six-month moving average of starts moved swiftly higher by 3.6% m/m to 253.1k units.
• In urban markets, June's performance was evenly split across the multi-family and single-detached sectors, with the former moving higher by 421 units to 219k, while the latter grew by a touch less to 42.7k units.
• The stronger-than-expected print was narrowly-based, with urban starts only up in 3 of 10 provinces:
  • Starts in B.C. did the heavy lifting (+28k to 64.2k units), while Atlantic provinces inched higher by 205k led by small gains in N.B. and PEI. Meanwhile, starts fell in Ontario (-9.3k to 59k units) and Quebec (-8k units to 50.7k units). 
  • Starts also dropped in the Prairies (-10k to 71k units), weighed down by Alberta (-5.9k to 61.3k units).

Key Implications

• June's housing starts surpassed expectations, helping second quarter starts growth notch a record gain. This should provide a near-term tailwind for residential investment, buffering weakness in other areas of the Canadian economy that have been put under stress in the past few months.  
• Near-term homebuilding can likely maintain solid levels given elevated building permits, but we'd expect some of this momentum to cool. Oversupply in key markets combined with slower population growth is weighing on rents, while high construction costs and near-term economic uncertainty may weigh on sales activity.           

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