Canadian Housing Starts (July 2026)

Canadian Data Release: Housing starts dip in July

• Canadian housing starts came in at 229.1k annualized units in July, marking a 5% month-on-month (m/m) decline from June's level. On a trend basis, the six-month moving average of starts remained relatively unchanged at 247.4k units. 
• July's decline was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban starts down 6% m/m to 179.1k units. Meanwhile, urban single-detached starts were flat at 38.7k units. 
• Urban starts were down in 6 of 10 provinces: 
• In the Prairies, starts declined by 11.4k, but were still high at 58.9k units. Starts declined in Ontario (-7.9k to 52.3k units) and B.C. (-5.0k to 28.4k units).
• In contrast, starts increased to elevated levels in the Atlantic (+3.7k to 15.8k units), despite a dip in Newfoundland and Labrador. Starts also climbed in Quebec (+9.0k to 62.3k units).
 
 

Key Implications

• July's decline in starts will downwardly pressure the residential investment component of GDP. That said, pulling back the curtain shows housing starts remain somewhat elevated (relative to historic norms) in the Atlantic, Quebec, and Prairies. Rental construction is offering a lift in these markets. Meanwhile, starts are declining in B.C. and remain low in Ontario. 
• July's drop is consistent with our view that housing starts are set to grind lower moving forward. Headwinds for homebuilding include weak population growth, elevated levels of unsold inventories, climbing rental vacancy rates and past weakness in pre-construction sales. The recent removal of the HST on all new builds in Ontario is likely spurring demand, but lags between pre-sales and starts means that the boost to homebuilding could be more felt in 2027 and 2028.  
  
   

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