Canadian Housing Starts (August 2025)

Canadian housing starts pull back in August

• Canadian housing starts declined 16% month-on-month (m/m) in August, clocking in at a still-healthy 245.8k units. Stripping away monthly volatility, the six-month moving average of starts increased 1.6% m/m to 267.3k units.
• In urban markets, August's moderation was driven by the multi-family sector, where starts plunged by 46.9k (to 183.4k units) from their sky-high July level. Meanwhile, single-detached starts dipped 1.8k to 40.3k units.
• August's starts decline was broad-based regionally, with activity down in 9 of 10 provinces:
  
   
  • Ontario (-18.1k to 56.1k units) and the Atlantic (-12.9k to 15.6k units) were the largest contributors to August's drop. Starts also fell in B.C. (-10.7k to 43.8k units), Quebec (-6.1k to 49.5k units), and most of the Prairies (-0.8k to 58.8k units). 
  • Only Manitoba saw starts rise in August (+3.6k to 8.6k units).

Key Implications

• The pace of starts cooled last month. That said, they remain highly elevated on a trend basis, lifted by rental construction. Investment in rental units has been supported by elevated rents in several markets, supportive government financing programs, and tax breaks on the construction of this type of housing. 
• Looking ahead, stable building permits point to a maintenance of the healthy starts trend in the near-term. However, we expect some moderation in homebuilding in 2026 amid slowing population growth and falling rents. Meanwhile, past declines in pre-construction home sales should keep a lid on construction in the ownership market.       

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