Canadian Housing Starts (July 2025)

Housing starts rose in July

• Canadian housing starts came in at a solid rate of 294.1k annualized units in July, rising 4% (+11k) from June's already-elevated level (283.5k). Meanwhile, the six-month moving average was healthy at 263k units. 
• In urban markets, July's firm performance was driven by the multi-family sector, where starts advanced 12k to 231k units. Single-detached starts were flat at 42k units.
• Urban starts were up in 7 of 10 provinces:
  • Ontario (+16k to 74k units) and the Atlantic (+12k to 29k units) were the largest contributors to July's improvement. However, Ontario's level of starts remained relatively low in July. In contrast, homebuilding activity was extremely elevated in the Atlantic last month. Starts also increased in Quebec (+6k to 56k units).
  • Starts dropped in the Prairies (-11k to 60k units), weighed down by Alberta. They also pulled back significantly in B.C. (-10k to 54k units).

Key Implications

• In July, starts rose to their highest level since September 2022. The hearty trend in homebuilding is being underpinned by the rental market, where gains have likely been supported by powerful population growth in the past and government financing programs targeting this sector. 
• Building permits suggest that starts could remain near these sturdy levels in the near-term. However, we anticipate some cooling taking place in 2026. Population growth is slowing and asking rents are dropping in several jurisdictions. Meanwhile, building activity in the ownership market is likely to remain subdued, weighed on by past declines in pre-construction home sales.           

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