Canadian Housing Starts (November 2024)

Housing starts increase again in November

• Canadian housing starts jumped to 262.4k annualized units in November, representing an 8% month-on-month (m/m) increase from October. The six-month moving average of starts was flat at 243k units.
• November's gain was broad-based, with urban multi-starts up 11% to 195.3k units and single-detached starts rising by 4% to 49.8k units. 
• Urban starts were higher in 7 of 10 provinces:
  
  
  • Starts jumped 10.8k to 53.3k units in Quebec and surged by 8.1k to 48.6k units in B.C. In the Prairies starts rose 5.2k to 70.4k units (boosted by Alberta) while the Atlantic region increased by 1.8k to 13.4k units. On the flipside, starts dropped 5.2k to 59.4k units in Ontario.

Key Implications

• Last month was a solid one for homebuilders, with starts rising to their highest level since July. Support has come from elevated home prices, robust population growth, and construction of purpose-built rental units.
• However, the homebuilding picture continues to be a tale of two situations, with homebuilding retracing in Ontario, while holding up well in other regions. We think this dichotomy will hold in 2025, although a further pullback in starts in Ontario, coupled with slower population growth in other regions, should push Canadian homebuilding activity lower next year.           

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