Canadian Housing Starts (April 2025)

Housing starts surge in April, but trend remains below recent peaks

• Canadian housing starts came in at 278.6k annualized units in April, marking a 30% month-on-month (m/m) jump from March's relatively low level. This marked the highest print since June 2023. Meanwhile, the six-month moving average of starts increased 2.4% m/m to 240.9k units. 
• April's increase was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban starts surging 34% m/m to 214.5k units. Meanwhile, urban single-detached starts increased by 6% m/m to 45.3k units. 
• Urban starts were up in 6 of 10 provinces: 
  • Starts rose strongly in Ontario (+25.8k to 64.1k units), B.C. (+22.0k to 51.1k units). They also surged in the Atlantic Region (+5.9k to 18.5k units) - boosted by Nova Scotia and PEI. The increase in the Prairies (+7.2k to 74.9k units) was driven solely by Alberta.
  • Starts dropped in Quebec (-3.7k to 51.2k units), New Brunswick (-2.4k to 2.4k units), Manitoba (-2.6k to 5.5k units), and Saskatchewan (-0.4k to 7.4k units).

Key Implications

• A bounce-back in homebuilding was expected last month after steep declines over the Feb/Mar period. Still, April's surge surpassed expectations and should offer some near-term lift to residential investment spending and overall GDP. 
• That said, the trend in housing starts is softening, with the 6-month moving average down 5% from its mid-2024 peak. This moderation is consistent with our forecast for this year, as construction responds to the past declines in demand, slower population growth, and elevated construction costs. Ontario being the driver of the moderation in construction is concerning for future affordability, as housing shortages in the province are among the most pronounced of any region.           

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