Canadian Existing Home Sales (September 2025)

Canadian home sales decline in September  

• Canadian existing home sales declined 1.7% month-on-month (m/m) in September, ending a series of gains that began in April. The pullback in sales was broad-based, with large drops in B.C. (-3.0% m/m) and Alberta (-5.4%), and smaller declines in Ontario (-0.7% m/m), and Quebec (-0.8% m/m). In contrast, gains were observed in Saskatchewan (+1.7% m/m), and Manitoba (5.6% m/m).
• New listings dipped 0.8% m/m in September. With sales falling faster than new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio loosened 0.5 ppts to 50.7%. The ratio remains below its long-term average, suggesting the national market is a touch looser than normal.
• Average home prices edged higher by 0.2% m/m in September. B.C. did the heavy lifting, with prices up 1.0% m/m, although they also increased solidly in Newfoundland and Labrador (+2.8% m/m). In contrast, prices fell modestly in Alberta (-0.6% m/m) and Quebec (-0.8% m/m) and were flat in Ontario. They were down 1.0%, on average, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and were slightly lower (on average), across the rest of the Atlantic region. 
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, dipped 0.1% m/m, and was down 3.4% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.2% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.3% m/m. In contrast, prices for towns/rows was up 0.3% m/m.

Key Implications

• After bouncing off their early-year lows from April – August, growth in Canadian home sales appeared to take a breather in September. However, for the third quarter, sales were up 7%, which will support overall economic growth via a boost to residential investment. On the price front, Canadian benchmark price growth remains soft, consistent with loose supply/demand balances in B.C. and Ontario, offsetting tighter conditions everywhere else in the country. Notably, Canadian average home price growth continued to outperform its benchmark counterpart last month (albeit modestly), lifted by compositional forces (i.e. more expensive housing selling relatively well, lifting average prices).
• September's weaker-than-expected sales performance raises the risk that fourth quarter sales activity could be softer than projected in our latest forecast. Our current view sees a modest, gradual rise in housing activity through next year, supported by pent-up demand and ample available supply in the near-term, and an improving job market in 2026. However, Canadian average home price growth will likely lag Canadian sales gains, weighed down by B.C. and Ontario.

Disclaimer

This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.