Canadian Existing Home Sales (July 2026)

Canadian home sales edge higher in July

• Canadian existing home sales rose 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) in May, largely supported by Ontario (+2.5% m/m), and complemented by reasonably strong gains in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador (average gain of about 3% across both regions). Elsewhere, sales declines were recorded in the Prairies and other parts of the Atlantic, while activity was roughly flat in B.C. and Quebec.
• New listings declined 1.6% m/m. With new listings falling and sales pushing higher, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened by 1 percentage point to 51.2% in July. Despite tightening last month, the ratio remains well below the long-term average, pointing to modest price growth moving forward.
• Canadian average home prices rose nearly in line with sales, climbing 0.6% m/m. Prices were up in 6 of 10 provinces, averaging 0.6% m/m in Ontario, Quebec, B.C. and New Brunswick, with more notable gains in smaller regions like Saskatchewan (1.9% m/m) and Nova Scotia (1.1% m/m).
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, edged up 0.1% m/m, and was down 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. However, this is up from -4.9% in January. Prices for detached units were up 0.1% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.2% m/m.
  
  
   

Key Implications

• Canadian home sales climbed for the fourth straight month in July, which will help offset the impact of a decline in housing starts on the residential component of GDP. Over these four months, national sales gains have been almost exclusively driven by Ontario, where improved affordability – amid healthy supply and low sales levels – is gradually drawing buyers off the sidelines. Elsewhere, activity has been flatter, in aggregate.   
• July's print is consistent with our view that Canadian home sales will grind higher through the second half, backed by pent-up housing demand and affordability improvements in B.C. and Ontario. However, supply/demand balances that still favour of buyers in these two markets should keep Canadian average home price growth flatter. Conditions are tighter elsewhere in Canada and accordingly, price growth outside of Ontario and B.C. should be firmer in 2026H2.
  
   
  
  
   

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