Canadian Existing Home Sales (August 2025)

Canadian home sales growth cools in August  

• Canadian existing home sales increased 1.1% month-on-month (m/m) in August, marking a slowdown from July's 3.9% m/m increase. Gains in Quebec (+3.1% m/m), B.C. (+2.4% m/m) and Alberta (+2.2% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, sales were flat in Ontario.  
• New listings increased 2.6% m/m in August. With sales rising slower than new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased 0.8 ppts to 51.2%. This suggests that markets remained balanced last month.
• Average home prices inched higher by 0.4% m/m in August. Prices were up notably in Quebec (+1.8% m/m), the Atlantic (average gain of 2.9%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (average gain of 2.3% m/m). Meanwhile, prices were up 1% m/m in Alberta, flat in Ontario, and dipped in B.C. (-0.4% m/m).  
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, declined 0.1% m/m, and was down 3.4% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units edged lower by 0.1% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.2% m/m.  In year-on-year terms, detached prices were down 2.9%, while condo prices dropped by 5.3%.

Key Implications

• Canadian sales growth eased a touch in August, suggesting some satiation of the pent-up demand that had driven 3 months of solid gains from May - July. We'd note that significant pent-up housing demand still exists in B.C. and Ontario. In our view, this should drive sales higher through next year, helped in the near-term by looming Bank of Canada rate cuts.   
• The improving demand backdrop should keep Canadian average home price growth in positive territory. Supply/demand conditions are still relatively tight across several provinces. In contrast, market balances favour buyers in B.C. and Ontario. However, average home prices in these markets have been lifted by the outperformance of more expensive housing in recent months, and we assume this trend will continue in coming months.

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