Canadian Existing Home Sales (March 2025)

Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on Canadian housing market in March 

• Canadian existing home sales plunged 4.8% month-on-month (m/m) in March to 35.6k units sold. This marked the lowest sales level since November 2023. Notable sales declines were recorded in B.C. and Ontario (both down 7% m/m), with a smaller drop in Quebec (-3% m/m). Meanwhile, sales were flat in Alberta. 
• New listings increased 3% m/m in March. The combination of weaker sales and rising listings lowered the Canadian sales-to-new listings ratio to 45.9% - essentially characterizing a buyer's market, and the lowest since February 2009. Meanwhile, there were 165.8k properties for sale in March, up 18% from a year earlier.
• Despite the large drop in sales, Canadian average home prices inched 0.3% m/m higher in March, supported by gains in Ontario (1.1% m/m) and Alberta (0.5% m/m). Meanwhile, prices declined in B.C. (-0.9% m/m) and were flat in Quebec. 
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, declined 1% m/m, and is down 2% on a year-on-year basis. Given the looser supply/demand balances that prevailed last month, the index is likely offering a truer picture of underlying price trends than the Canadian average price measures. Notably, prices for detached units were down 1.1%, while condo prices fell 0.7% m/m.  

Key Implications

• March's decline was not much of a surprise given that tariff-related economic uncertainty remained elevated last month. For the first quarter overall, sales plunged 12%, which will weigh on residential investment and overall economic growth. 
• Canadian listings pushed higher last month. Notably, markets are hugely tilted in the favour of buyers in B.C. and Ontario and are even loosening rapidly in the once drum-tight Alberta market. These trends suggest that Canadian average home prices will decline in the second quarter, following their 5% drop in Q1. 

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