Canadian Existing Home Sales (January 2026)

Canadian home sales fall to begin 2026

• Canadian existing home sales declined 5.8% month-on-month (m/m) in January. Sales were lower in every province last month, with steep drops recorded in Manitoba (-10.6% m/m), Ontario (-8.9%) and B.C. (-8.2%). Meanwhile sales were down by about 7% (simple average) across the Atlantic.  
• New listings surged 7.3% m/m in January. With sales falling and new listings rising, the sales-to-new listings ratio plunged well below the long-run average to 45%, signaling modest near-term price growth moving forward.
• Canadian average home prices declined 1.7% m/m amid falling demand and rising supply. Nearly mirroring the sales trend, prices were down in most regions, with sizeable declines observed in Saskatchewan (-2% m/m), Ontario (-1.6% m/m) and Manitoba (-1.4% m/m). Nova Scotia registered a massive 10.1% m/m monthly decline – one of the largest on record – although this looks primed for a reversal in February. Elsewhere, prices were down about 0.5% in Alberta and B.C. while being flat in Quebec. 
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, fell 0.9% m/m, and is down 4.9% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.8% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.7% m/m.

Key Implications

• This was an exceedingly slow start to the year for Canadian housing, although outsized weakness in Central and Atlantic Canada points to winter storms impacting January's figures, suggesting the potential for some bounce-back in February. Weather-related volatility aside, the trend in Canadian home sales has been subdued since last August. Several factors are likely weighing on the market, including cost-of-living and economic uncertainty concerns for households, a weak underlying economy and soft population growth. Falling prices in markets like Ontario and B.C. may also be keeping potential buyers sidelined as they wait for a bottom. 
• With these headwinds in place, another sub-par year for the Canadian housing market is likely on tap in 2026. However, some pent-up demand should offer some limit to the downside in B.C. and Ontario, and price growth should be stronger outside of these two provinces.

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