Canadian Existing Home Sales (April 2025)

Tariff uncertainty keeps Canadian housing activity subdued in April 

• Canadian existing home sales were unchanged in April compared to March, coming in at a low level of 35.8k units sold. Sales declines in Alberta (-3.4% month-on-month, m/m) and B.C. (2.3% m/m) were offset by gains in Ontario (1.1% m/m) and Quebec (2.0% m/m).  
• New listings declined 1% m/m in April. The combination of flat sales and lower listings tightened Canadian housing markets a touch in April. However, at 46.8%, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained well below its long-term average, signaling that markets remain relatively loose.
• Like sales, Canadian average home prices were flat in April. Prices were up mildly in Quebec (0.4% m/m), dipped in B.C. (-0.9% m/m) and were unchanged in Ontario and Alberta. Elsewhere, average home prices were down by an average of 1.1% m/m in the rest of the Prairies, and fell 3.4% m/m across the Atlantic.
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, declined 1.2% m/m, and is down 3.6% on a year-on-year basis. Notably, Prices for detached units were down 1.1% m/m, while condo prices fell 1.3% m/m.  

Key Implications

• April was yet another subdued month for home sales, as economic uncertainty likely continued to keep potential buyers sidelined. With last month's soft showing (and weak momentum heading into the quarter) we're currently tracking another decline in Canadian home sales in Q2 following their sizeable first quarter contraction.   
• The other side of that trend is that pent-up housing demand is building, which was already large in Ontario and B.C. even before the trade war struck. History shows that Canadian housing markets can surge after lulls, so if confidence improves later in the year (which is our view), the market could see sales pop. However, Canadian average home price growth is likely to remain a laggard for much of the year, given very loose supply/demand balances in B.C. and Ontario. 

Disclaimer

This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.