Canadian Existing Home Sales (May 2026)

Canadian home sales rise in May   

• Canadian existing home sales increased 5.5% month-on-month (m/m) in May. Broad-based gains were observed, headlined by Nova Scotia (+20.4% m/m), Manitoba (+10.1% m/m), Ontario (+8.8% m/m) and B.C. (+5.8% m/m).
• New listings edged down 1% m/m. With new listings falling and sales jumping higher, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened 3 percentage points to 49.2% in May. This is well below the long-term average and signals modest price growth moving forward.
• Canadian average home prices posted a more muted gain than sales, rising 0.7% m/m. Prices were up in Ontario (+1% m/m) and Alberta (0.6% m/m), and averaged a 2% gain in Saskatchewan, PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador. In contrast, prices dropped in B.C. (-0.4% m/m), and Quebec (-0.6%).
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, edged down 0.1% m/m, and was down 4.1% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were flat, while condo prices fell 0.7% m/m.
  
   

Key Implications

• Canadian home sales posted a healthy gain in May, as price expectations between sellers and buyers could be becoming more aligned, greasing the wheels for transactions. This not only leaves sales on track for a firm increase in Q2, but it adds a tailwind to the residential component of GDP. However, some of the shine comes off considering it represents only a partial bounce back after an exceedingly weak, weather-impacted first quarter. For their part, Canadian average home prices grew faster than their benchmark counterpart, pointing to compositional forces (i.e., outperforming sales of more expensive properties) at play. Moving forward, this dynamic could hold in markets like Vancouver, where the condo market is under pressure (see report).    
• May's print is consistent with our view that Canadian home sales will grind higher through the second half, supported by pent-up demand and a downward drift in bond yields. We also foresee a modest rise in Canadian average home prices in 2026H2, backed by firmer gains in markets outside of Ontario, where supply/demand balances still favour buyers.
  
   

Disclaimer

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