Canadian Existing Home Sales (June 2025)

Canadian home sales make gains in June

• Canadian existing home sales advanced for a third consecutive month in June, increasing by 2.8% month-on-month (m/m). Gains in B.C. (+5.8% m/m) and Ontario (+5.3% m/m) helped lift national sales, while activity dipped in Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland.  
• In the existing home market, new listings fell by 2.9% m/m in June. With sales rising and new listings pulling back, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened a couple percentage points to 50.1%. This moves housing markets into slightly more balanced territory, but the ratio remains below its long-term average.
• Average home prices advanced 1.5% m/m in June. Prices were up notably in B.C. (+1.5% m/m) and Nova Scotia (+1.7% m/m), and Saskatchewan and New Brunswick (+1.4%). Meanwhile, prices were up 0.7% m/m in Ontario, 0.8% m/m in Quebec and 0.4% m/m Alberta.  
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, continued to moderate, down 0.2% m/m, and lower by 3.7% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.1% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.7% m/m.  Notably, a much weaker performance in the home price index than the average home price measure suggests a shift in the composition of sales is lifting prices (i.e., more expensive housing sold relatively well last month, lifting average prices).

Key Implications

• June's sales performance came in broadly as expected, with Canadian transactions continuing their gradual recovery from their early-year depths. We expect home sales will continue to rise in the second half of the year as pent-up demand continues to trickle into the market. That said, the sales level should remain subdued as economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with Canada facing new tariff threats. 
• Even with the expected sales gain, Canadian average home price growth should lag given still loose supply/demand balances in the important markets of B.C. and Ontario.

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