Canadian Existing Home Sales (September 2026)

Canadian home sales declined again in September

• Canadian existing home sales fell 2.3% month-on-month (m/m) in September, dragged down by B.C. (-5.7% m/m and Ontario (-3.1% m/m). However, declines were registered across most jurisdictions. Only Alberta (+1.1% m/m) and some parts of the Atlantic recorded a gain.
• New listings declined 1.8% m/m. With sales falling slightly faster than new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio edged lower to 48.8% from 49.1% in August. This ratio remains well below its long-term average, signaling modest near-term price growth.
• Canadian average home prices fell 2.0% m/m on declines in Ontario (-2.8% m/m), B.C. (-1.2% m/m) and Quebec (-1.0% m/m). In contrast, prices rose notably in Manitoba (+5.2% m/m) and were up across most of the Atlantic region.
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, declined 0.4% m/m and was down 3.4% year-on-year. Prices for detached units fell 0.5% m/m and condo units were down 0.4% m/m.
  
  
   

Key Implications

• While the Canada/U.S. trade war has recently escalated, and inflation concerns likely remain top-of-mind for Canadians, the rise in borrowing costs was probably the prime force behind September's monthly decline in home sales and average prices. Interestingly, benchmark prices declined by a slightly larger amount for Canadian single-family homes compared to condos. Note that affordability is more stretched for single-family homes, so this could reflect the impact of higher interest rates. 
• Government bond yields are likely to remain elevated moving forward. Accordingly, our forecast anticipates declining Canadian home sales and average home prices in the fourth quarter. Looking to 2027, we look for weak price growth across most regions next year, with loose supply/demand balances providing an additional drag on prices in B.C. and Ontario.
   

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