Canadian Existing Home Sales (October 2025)

Canadian home sales rise in October 

• Canadian existing home sales increased 0.9% month-on-month (m/m) in October, partially reversing September's 1.6% m/m decline. Increases in B.C. (+2% m/m), Alberta (1.8% m/m), and Quebec (+2.7% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, sales dipped in Ontario (-0.7% m/m), Saskatchewan (-4.3% m/m), and Manitoba (-5% m/m).  
• Canadian new listings declined 1.4% m/m in October. With sales rising and new listings dropping, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened up a touch. However, at 52.2%, the ratio remained below its long-term average, suggesting sub-trend Canadian average home price growth is in the cards for the near-term.
• Average home prices edged 0.2% m/m higher in October. Prices were up notably in B.C. (+1.3% m/m), Alberta (+3.3% m/m) and Quebec (+2.1% m/m). In contrast, prices declined 0.8% m/m in Ontario. Elsewhere, prices were flat, on average, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the Atlantic.
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, increased 0.2% m/m, matching the rise in average prices and marking the strongest monthly gain since November 2024. However, it was still down 3% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were up 0.3% m/m, while condo prices dipped 0.1% m/m – the smallest such drop since July of last year.

Key Implications

• Canadian housing markets firmed up a bit in October, with sales rising, and benchmark and average prices edging higher. Canadian home sales have now climbed for 6 of the last 7 months, leaving the recovery narrative in Canadian housing firmly intact. That said, sales levels are still relatively low, (dragged down by B.C. and, especially, Ontario), so we'd be hard pressed to call the recovery robust. Moving forward, we see sales continuing to grind higher, supported by pent-up demand, and some improvement in job markets next year.
• This improving demand backdrop should keep Canadian average home price growth in positive territory, backed by tight supply/demand balances across much of the country. In contrast, market balances favour buyers in B.C. and Ontario, which should keep price growth restrained in these markets for the next several months.

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