Canadian Existing Home Sales (November 2024)

Canadian home sales increase in November

• Canadian existing home sales increased 2.8% month-on-month (m/m) in November, building on October's jump. November's increase was driven by gains in the GVA, GTA, Calgary and Montreal.
• New listings edged down 0.5% m/m in November. With sales rising faster than listings, the Canadian sales-to-new listings ratio increased to 59.2%, above its long-term average of about 55%. There were about 160,000 properties listed for sale at the end of November, up 9% from a year earlier, but still below historical averages.
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, increased up 0.6% m/m – the largest m/m increase since last July. However, it was down 1.2% year-on-year (y/y). Meanwhile, the Canadian national average home price was up 7.4% y/y in November.  

Key Implications

• While sales growth did ease after its robust showing in October, it continued to respond to the combination of lower interest rates, pent-up demand in Ontario and B.C., and (potentially) some pull-forward of activity ahead of looser federal mortgage rules starting in December.
• 2025 should be a firm year for Canadian housing, supported by falling borrowing costs, federal measures, and continued economic growth. This will help residential investment add to overall GDP growth for the first time since 2021. November's jump in benchmark prices is eyebrow raising, and rising home prices should upwardly pressure shelter inflation moving forward, although tough affordability backdrops in key markets could limit the extent of home price gains. 

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