Canadian Existing Home Sales (July 2025)

Canadian home sales continued to climb in July  

• Canadian existing home sales advanced for a fourth consecutive month in July, rising 3.8% month-on-month (m/m). Gains in Ontario (+7.7% m/m), B.C. (+3.9% m/m) and Alberta (+2.6% m/m) helped lift national sales. Meanwhile, monthly declines were recorded in Quebec, Manitoba, and parts of the Atlantic region.  
• New listings were flat in July. With sales rising and new listings flatlining, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened a couple percentage points to 52%. This pushed markets further into balanced territory.
• Average home prices advanced 1.3% m/m in July, lifted by gains in Ontario, B.C. (both up 1.1% m/m) and Quebec (+ 0.7% m/m). Prices dropped in every other province during the month. 
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure was unchanged. Prices for detached units were up 0.2% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.3% m/m.  This much softer performance in the home price index than the average home price measure indicates that the composition of sales is lifting prices (i.e., more expensive housing sold relatively well last month, lifting average prices).

Key Implications

• Pent-up demand temporarily sidelined earlier in the year returned to markets with some force last month, supported by ample choice in Toronto and Vancouver. Indeed, it looks as though the sales recovery that should have happened earlier in the year after significant rate relief in 2024 was simply delayed some months.
  
  
• This improving trend will likely maintain itself through next year. Some reduction in economic uncertainty should bring back more buyers in B.C. and Ontario, while further Bank of Canada rate relief could offer modest stimulus in the back half of the year. However, barriers remain, such as stretched affordability in several provinces and a weaker job market.

Disclaimer

This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.