Canadian Existing Home Sales (December 2025)

Canadian home sales slipped in December

• Canadian existing home sales declined 2.7% month-on-month (m/m) in December, marking the 2nd straight monthly drop, and the largest decline since March. Sales dipped in Alberta and Quebec by around 5.5% m/m, while Ontario and B.C. fell by a lesser 1.6% m/m and 1.2% m/m, respectively. Increases in Nova Scotia (+7.1% m/m) and PEI (+8.8% m/m) provided a bit of an offset.
• New listings decreased 2% m/m in December, a fourth straight monthly drop. The sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 52.3% – below the long-term average – as sales decreased by a greater amount. This points to sub-trend Canadian average home price growth in the near-term.
• Average home prices were flat on m/m basis in December. Prices were up notably in Saskatchewan (+2.8% m/m), and Manitoba (+5.8% m/m). Ontario and Quebec registered sub-1% m/m gains. Meanwhile, prices dropped in B.C. (-1.6% m/m).
• The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, declined 0.3% m/m, and is down 4% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.2% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.4% m/m.  Notably, a much weaker performance in the home price index than the average home price measure suggests the presence of compositional forces on prices (i.e., more expensive housing sold relatively well last month, lifting average prices).

Key Implications

• Canadian home sales ended last year on a listless note, consistent with downgrades imbedded in our latest Quarterly Economic Forecast. Sales have stabilized at low levels over the past few months amid strained affordability, a sluggish economy, and buyer uneasiness. We think sales levels will remain low this year as well, impacted by economic uncertainty. 
• With their weak December showing, Canadian average home prices mirrored sales, and we think that there's limited scope for them to push meaningfully higher over the near-term given the supply/demand conditions that favour buyers in B.C. and Ontario. We'd note, however, that price growth is much stronger elsewhere, with near-double digit annual average price gains posted in markets like Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador in 2025.

Disclaimer

This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.