U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (November 2025)

ISM Manufacturing Index Shows Ninth Consecutive Month of Contraction

• The ISM Manufacturing Index ticked down slightly to 48.2 in November, only slightly lower than October's reading of 48.7.
• Four industries reported growth last month, down from six in October. The share of manufacturing GDP reporting growth was unchanged at 58%.
• Demand conditions declined overall, but not uniformly. Improvements in new export orders and inventories were dwarfed by the declines in the backlog of orders and new orders indexes. 
• The production index has once again moved into expansion territory, reaching 51.4, quite a bit above October's 48.2. It has been volatile in recent months. It was last in positive territory in September's survey, which registered at 51.0.
• The pace of price gains was little changed in November, coming in at 58.5 vs. 58.0 in October. And the employment index remains in contractionary territory, declining 2.0 points to 44.0 this month.

Key Implications

• The November survey came in broadly like last month's, meaning that the underlying state of the manufacturing sector is largely unchanged. The sector is seeing price pressures which are gradually lessening but remain a sticking point, employment is contracting, and demand is tepid.
• As in recent months, survey respondents continue to report substantial struggles with tariffs. Price volatility, constraints on supplier availability, and the government shutdown have weighed on the industry. Some respondents cited the lack of official data as an impediment to planning. Respondents in several industries are expecting to see larger changes to revenue and head count in 2026. The bottom line is that the manufacturing sector is still contracting due to weak demand, while policy uncertainty has added to its challenges.

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