U.S. Vehicle Sales (October 2026)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Continued to Fall in October

• U.S. vehicle sales fell 2.7% month on month (m/m) to 15.5 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR) in October, below consensus expectations for 15.8 million units.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.32 million units – 2.9% above October 2025 levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 47,270 − calculated over 28 days – slightly below the year ago level of 47,660 calculated over 27 days.
• Passenger vehicle sales were down 3.5% year on year (y/y) while sales of light trucks fell 0.4% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 84% of last month’s sales, roughly equal to their year ago share. 

Key Implications

• Vehicle sales started the fourth quarter on a soft footing, falling to the lowest level since January. However, January sales were weighed down by adverse weather during the month, and if this period was excluded, sales in October were the lowest in over two years. Even though gas prices fell gradually over the past month, they remain notably higher than last year (~35% year-on-year) and are increasingly weighing on consumer sentiment.
• Beyond prices at the pump, the increase in U.S. Treasury yields over the past few months also filtered through to vehicle financing costs more materially in October. Affordability challenges have persisted in the market, which have likely made the marginal consumer more sensitive to higher costs. Currently, we expect sales to ease through the fourth quarter before rebounding gradually through 2027, although this is contingent on a gradual decline in energy prices helping to ease inflation risks, and limiting further increases in borrowing costs. 
   

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