U.S. Vehicle Sales (September 2025)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Remain Healthy in September

• U.S. vehicle sales fell 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) to 16.4 million (annualized) units in September, partly owing to an upward revision to August sales (16.5 million vs. 16.1 million previously).
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.25 million units or 6.7% above year-ago levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 52,095 – calculated over 24 days – 2.3% above September 2024's 48,819 daily rate calculated over 23 days.
• Passenger vehicle sales were down 8.9% year-on-year (y/y) while sales of light trucks were up 10.5% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 83% of last month's sales, slightly higher than its year-ago 81% share.   

Key Implications

• U.S. vehicle sales remained solid through the end of the third quarter, as the last month of electric vehicle (EV) subsidy availability kept sales in the segment solid in September (+41% year-on-year). The health of the U.S. consumer has persisted, with strong year-to-date financial asset returns and a tight, albeit slowing, labor market propping up spending. Nevertheless, as we enter the fourth quarter, vehicle sales are expected to slow amid eliminated EV subsidies, tariff-induced vehicle price increases, and a cooling labor market.
• The economy will also now be contending with the near-term impacts of the government shutdown, which took effect on Wednesday (see here). Although the economic impacts of shutdowns have historically been limited – a byproduct of their typical brevity – near term disruptions, including the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees could pose challenges over the coming weeks. Automakers could face some disruptions related to furloughs at some regulatory agencies, but on aggregate the direct impacts on buyers will likely be limited.       

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