U.S. Vehicle Sales (June 2024)

U.S. vehicle sales disrupted by cyberattack in June

• U.S. vehicle sales fell 4.0% month-on-month (m/m) to 15.3 million (annualized) units in June – well below consensus expectations for 15.8 million units.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.32 million units or 3.4% below year-ago levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 50,844, down from June 2023's 52,643 – both calculated over 26 days.
• Passenger vehicle sales fell 10.0% year-on-year (y/y) while sales of light-trucks were down 1.7% y/y. Light-trucks accounted for 81% of last month's sales, slightly below its year-ago 82% share.   

Key Implications

• Light vehicle sales in June were weighed down by a cyberattack at CDK Global, a company which offers dealer management services for over 15,000 dealers in the U.S. and Canada. This likely subtracted tens of thousands of additional sales from the June total, however CDK Global has announced that the disruptions have been largely resolved, which will likely boost sales for July.
• Despite the cyberattack, a combination of stable supply levels, falling vehicle prices, and rising incentives pushed sales up 2.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2024. Volumes should continue to grow in the second half of the year with real incomes, even though financing rates remain high. While the Federal Reserve is expected to begin gradually reducing interest rates later in the year, this will likely provide more of a lift to sales in 2025 than 2024.       

Disclaimer

This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.