U.S. Vehicle Sales (January 2026)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Eased to Start 2026

• U.S. vehicle sales fell 7.2% month-on-month (m/m) to 14.8 million (annualized) units in January, coming in below consensus expectations for 15.2 million units.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.11 million units, roughly unchanged relative to January 2025. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 42,522 - calculated over 26 selling days - 3.9% lower than the year-ago 44,237 DSR calculated over 25 days.
• Passenger vehicle sales were down 3.6% year-on-year (y/y) while sales of light trucks rose 0.7% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 83% of last month's sales, marginally higher than their year-ago share.   

Key Implications

• Vehicle sales fell by more than expected in January, with the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales falling to its lowest level since December 2022. Sales typically pull back in January after the holiday season, but downward momentum from the fourth quarter of last year, related to rising prices and the expiration of the federal electric vehicle subsidy, carried through to the new year. However, it's likely the winter storms which impacted most of the nation in late January also weighed on activity.
• The average new vehicle manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) hit a record high of $52,627 in December. Despite efforts by automakers to offset the costs of tariffs, higher prices – either via markups or skewing inventory towards higher margin luxury vehicles – will be required to rebuild profit margins. A gradual easing in financial conditions in recent months has helped to stabilize sales amid these headwinds, but with the Federal Reserve expected to remain on hold through the first half of the year, this influence is likely to wane. For 2026, we expect sales to come in slightly north of 16 million units, but note that trade risks, particularly with respect to the upcoming USMCA review, continue to linger.       

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