U.S. Vehicle Sales (February 2026)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Rebounded in February

• U.S. vehicle sales increased 6.3% month-on-month (m/m) to 15.8 million (annualized) units in February, coming in above consensus expectations for 15.2 million units.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.20 million units − 1.5% below February 2025 levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 49,888, coming in below the year-ago 50,628 DSR, with both calculated over 24 days.
• Passenger vehicle sales were down 10.4% year-on-year (y/y) while sales of light trucks rose 0.6% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 83% of last month's sales, marginally higher than their year-ago share.   

Key Implications

• The February rebound in vehicle sales primarily reflected a normalization after winter storms weighed on activity in January. A more material rebound was also likely partially inhibited by the uptick in vehicle financing rates last month. However, with the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield back near its lowest level since early December, some modest easing in financing rates is likely over the coming months.
• Limited additional improvements in financing costs, combined with the floor placed under vehicle prices by tariffs, are likely to sustain current affordability challenges in the market over the near term. In addition, the automotive industry, like the broader economy, may be facing a new energy price shock if the current conflict in the Middle East leads to material supply chain disruptions. While consumption growth has remained steady−supportive of our view for vehicle sales to rise gradually over the coming months−this confluence of headwinds could create downside risks in the first half of the year.       

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