U.S. Vehicle Sales (July 2026)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Moderated in July

• U.S. vehicle sales fell 1.4% month on month (m/m) to 16.3 million (annualized) units in July, in-line with consensus expectations.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.36 million units – 1.8% below July 2025 levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 52,463, coming in below the year ago level of 53,449. 
• Passenger vehicle sales were up 3.4% year on year (y/y) while sales of light trucks were down 2.8% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 83% of last month’s sales, roughly equal to their year ago share.
   

Key Implications

• Vehicle sales fell modestly to start the second half of the year but remained solid overall. Although gas prices did rise sharply during July, with the national average back above $4/gallon, consumers, for now, seem undaunted by this trend. Consumption trends have remained favorable on aggregate, supported by the recent stabilization in the labor market and solid financial market returns through the first half of the year.
• However, renewed hostilities in the Middle East have also placed upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, which, if sustained, would likely lead to higher vehicle financing costs. Combined with elevated energy prices, this could create more meaningful affordability challenges in the months ahead. For now, we maintain our expectation for 16-million-unit sales in 2026, but the risk outlook is tilted to the downside.
  
   
  
  
   

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