U.S. Vehicle Sales (March 2026)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Surprised to the Upside in March

• U.S. vehicle sales increased 3.7% month on month (m/m) to 16.3 million (annualized) units in March, coming in above consensus expectations for 15.9 million units.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.40 million units − 11.9% below March 2025 levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 56,185, coming in below the year ago level of 61,269. 
• Passenger vehicle sales were down 19.4% year on year (y/y) while sales of light trucks fell 10.2% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 83% of last month’s sales, above their year ago share (~82%).   

Key Implications

• Vehicle sales in March were solid despite the negative year-on-year comparisons which were distorted by the pre-tariff buying surge in March 2025. Sales surpassed expectations for the month, likely partially driven by the recovery from the subdued levels recorded earlier in year when inclement weather disrupted sales activity. However, with automobile financing rates beginning to rise again, affordability challenges are likely to forestall further upward momentum over the near term.
• While gas prices have increased considerably over the past month, with the national average above $4/gallon for the first time since 2022, this did not seem to have a material impact on sales activity in volume terms or consumer model preferences in March. Sales of larger models remained solid on aggregate, but the share of sales accounted for by internal combustion engine vehicles did fall slightly (78.4% vs. 79.2% in the month prior). If gas prices remain elevated over the coming months, then we would expect sales to soften, but for now we view this more as a risk to our baseline forecast for stable sales activity moving forward.       

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