U.S. Vehicle Sales (November 2025)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Remained Subdued in November

• U.S. vehicle sales rose 2.0% month-on-month (m/m) to 15.6 million (annualized) units in November, modestly outpacing consensus expectations for 15.4 million units.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.27 million units or 7.3% below year-ago levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 50,936, 3.6% lower than November 2024's 52,8777 DSR.
• Passenger vehicle sales were down 19.4% year-on-year (y/y) while sales of light trucks were down 4.6% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 84% of last month's sales, above their year-ago 82% share.   

Key Implications

• U.S. vehicle sales remained relatively soft in the second to last month of the year. Significant front-loading of sales, in response to both tariffs and expiring electric vehicle subsidies, resulted in depleted demand through the final months of the year. Lower inventory levels, in part stemming from the higher demand earlier in the year, have also kept incentive spending constrained. Combined with rising vehicle prices on new model year vehicles and elevated financing costs, the impact on demand has been material with non-electric vehicle sales down 3.4% year-on-year in November.
• While mean-reversion has explained much of the slowdown in sales over the past two months, growing concerns about the stability of the labor market have also likely played a role. With the hiring rate near its pandemic nadir and the unemployment continuing to broach multi-year highs, we expect vehicle sales to remain subdued over the coming months. Shifting into 2026, the lagged influence of monetary policy easing and the economy's adjustment to the new status quo on trade are likely to support vehicle sales rising modestly above 2025 levels.       

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