U.S. Vehicle Sales (September 2026)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Fall in September

• U.S. vehicle sales fell 3.5% month on month (m/m) to 16.0 million SAAR in September, below consensus expectations for 16.3 million units.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.32 million units – 4.2% above September 2025 levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 52,786 − calculated over 25 days − roughly equal to the year-ago level of 52,751 calculated over 24 days.
• Passenger vehicle sales were up 4.0% year-on-year (y/y) while sales of light trucks rose 4.3% y/y. Light trucks accounted for 84% of last month’s sales, roughly equal to their year-ago share.
   

Key Implications

• Vehicle sales softened by more than expected to end the third quarter, as the typical boost from Labor Day deals did not materialize. It's possible the boost was partly pulled forward into August given the relative lateness of the holiday this year, but sales in the third quarter were still down 1.3% compared to the second quarter.
• Affordability challenges have continued to grow in recent months, with the national average price of gas rising by 30 cents in September, putting it back near its peak reached earlier this year. This is likely to add further pressure to real wage growth which was down 0.3% year-on-year in August. Additionally, the marked increase in U.S. Treasury yields since late August is likely to keep financing costs elevated. We currently expect sales to remain stable through year-end but note that the risk outlook is skewed to the downside currently.
   
   
  
  
   

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