U.S. Vehicle Sales (June 2025)

U.S. Vehicle Sales Moderated Further in June

• U.S. vehicle sales decreased by 1.7% month-on-month (m/m) to 15.3 million (annualized) units in June – in-line with expectations.
• Unadjusted sales volumes were 1.25 million units or 4.2% below year-ago levels. The average daily selling rate (DSR) was 52,267 – calculated over 24 days – 3.8% above June 2024's 50,346 daily rate calculated over 26 days.
• Passenger vehicle sales fell 12.5% year-on-year (y/y) while sales of light-trucks declined by 2.2% y/y. Light-trucks accounted for 83% of last month's sales, higher than its year-ago 81% share.   

Key Implications

• The spring buying season was volatile this year, as tariffs on vehicles implemented in April motivated consumers to pull forward their purchases in advance of expected price increases. We are now on the backend of that trend, with sales activity offsetting the excess demand of months prior. Consumers are also facing lower inventory levels, with supply levels down roughly 10% year-on-year in June. Although tariffs have not filtered down to consumers materially yet, the drawdown in inventory likely means this will change over the coming months.
• Looking ahead, vehicle sales are expected to remain weak through the second half of the year as tariffs raise prices and weigh on the broader economy. Auto financing rates have also remained elevated as the Federal Reserve has sought to guard against a sustained reacceleration in inflation stemming from tariffs. A gradual reduction in interest rates is expected through the second half of the year, but this is unlikely to offset the expected softening in vehicle sales from the broader headwinds facing the industry.       

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