U.S. ISM Services Index (November 2025)

ISM services survey shows expansion continued in November

• The ISM Services index was roughly unchanged in November, increasing from 52.4 to 52.6 in November. The number of industries reporting growth last month increased to 12 out of 18, compared to 11 in the month prior.
• Looking under the hood, the stability of the headline measure masks some shifts. The supplies delivery index showed slower performance in November, for the 12th consecutive month, and new orders gave back some of October's improvement. 
• On the flip side, the backlog of orders increased to 49.1 in November from 40.8 in October, putting it above its September level. This index has been volatile for the last several months. The imports index also increased, albeit remaining in contractionary territory, to 48.9 in November from 43.7 in October. 
• As was the case in October, the employment and new export orders indexes both improved, but remain in contractionary territory. The prices index declined by 4.6 points to 65.4, indicating that price pressures are still prevalent.

Key Implications

• Respondents continue to point to disruptions in their operations from both tariffs and the government shutdown, though the end of the government shutdown is also bringing a lift for some. One survey respondent commented that uncertainty on how to source supplies is as high as it was during the pandemic, underscoring the challenge some industries face from tariffs. 
• While the ISM Services report has shown some volatility over the last several months, most of the sub-indexes that had turned lower in prior months are now showing signs that they may be turning the corner. The employment sub-index has continued its slow march towards expansionary territory but has not quite reached it yet. But perhaps the most significant development in this report is the decline in the prices index, which could help give the Federal Reserve some confidence that price pressures remain manageable. It seems competition is a factor as respondents expect to see margins decline to compete for business, which would lead to lower price increases. 

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