Forecasts
May 14, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The policy shifts and flips in the first 100 days of the Trump administration have kept forecasters and financial markets on their toes. The administration has moved quickly on multiple fronts, with the unprecedented spike in U.S. tariffs having rippled within equity markets, treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, only now to move in the other direction despite ongoing risks on the tariff front. Once again, this quarter's Q&A is dominated by the potential impacts
April 29, 2025
Dollars and Sense - U.S. Dollar: The Great Unwind
The U.S. dollar has hit a wall in 2025. After appreciating by over 16% between 2021 and 2024, the trade-weighted dollar has given back over a quarter of those gains in just four months (Chart 1). Many investors are questioning the ability for the U.S. economy to maintain its exceptional global growth position as uncertainty lights up the airwaves.
April 16, 2025
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
The U.S. administration imposed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, dropping all countries (excluding China) to a flat 10% tariff. This comes in addition to the sectoral tariffs, including steel & aluminum and finished autos & parts. We estimate the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be 26%, the highest level in over a century. However, this is skewed by the outsized 145% tariff on China.
March 21, 2025
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to run below its long-run trend rate of growth in 2025, as growth is slowed by tariffs, fiscal constraint and slower population growth. Real GDP growth then briefly overshoots in 2026/27 and then converges closer to potential by 2028. Slower near-term growth pushes the unemployment rate slightly higher, reaching 4.5% by Q4-2025 before gradually returning to its long-run average of 4% by mid-2027.
March 20, 2025
State Economic Forecast
After a lackluster 2023, the New England economy rebounded in 2024, recording strong growth on pace with the nation's. We expect growth to decelerate to 1.6% in 2025 as slowing economic fundamentals and trade risks weigh on the region. The Middle Atlantic region experienced a brief rebound to start 2024 that lost stream through the second half of the year. Economic activity in the Upper South Atlantic is expected to shift into lower gear this year, but the region should manage to keep pace with the nation, with growth projected at 1.9%. Lastly, a maturing economic cycle coupled with headwinds from major federal policy changes, suggest that economic growth for the Lower South Atlantic will moderate to an expected 2.1% this year.
March 18, 2025
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
Once again, policy shifts from the Trump administration are the main forecast theme this quarter, underpinning a downgrade to the global outlook. There is no way of knowing with certainty what tomorrow will bring in this on-again, off-again policy environment, forcing us to lay out a balanced set of assumptions to underpin this forecast cycle.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
December 05, 2024
Economic Outlook Gets Trumped!
Starting points matter for a new administration. President Trump will be inheriting a strong economy that has been beating forecasts by a statistical mile! This works to the advantage of Republicans in 2025. Households have more cushion to absorb some economic pain from a tariff war compared to the economies of trading partners that are treading water.
