Interest Rates
Interest Rates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
Fed Funds Target Rate | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate | 5.23 | 5.22 | 4.52 | 4.35 | 4.05 | 3.80 | 3.55 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 4.59 | 4.71 | 3.66 | 4.15 | 3.90 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 4.21 | 4.33 | 3.58 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.55 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 4.20 | 4.36 | 3.81 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 4.05 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield | 4.34 | 4.51 | 4.14 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.20 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread | -0.39 | -0.35 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
Foreign Exchange Outlook
Currency | Exchange Rate | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | ||
Euro | USD per EUR | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12 |
UK Pound | USD per GBP | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.34 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
Canadian Dollar | CAD per USD | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 |
Swiss Franc | CHF per USD | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
Japanese Yen | JPY per USD | 151 | 161 | 143 | 152 | 151 | 149 | 148 | 147 | 146 | 145 | 144 | 144 |
Global Stock Markets
Major Market Indexes | Price | 30-Day | YTD | 52-Week | 52-Week |
Aug-23 | % Chg. | % Chg. | High | Low | |
S&P 500 | 5,605 | 0.9 | 17.5 | 5,667 | 4,117 |
S&P/TSX Composite | 23,177 | 1.6 | 10.6 | 23,177 | 18,737 |
DAX | 18,579 | 0.1 | 10.9 | 18,869 | 14,687 |
FTSE 100 | 8,315 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 8,446 | 7,291 |
Nikkei | 38,364 | -3.1 | 14.6 | 42,224 | 30,527 |
MSCI AC World Index* | 823 | 0.8 | 13.2 | 831 | 629 |
Commodity Price Outlook
Commodity | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | |
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) | 77 | 81 | 76 | 70 | 70 | 68 | 68 | 72 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 78 |
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) | 2.23 | 2.07 | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
Gold ($US/troy oz.) | 2072 | 2336 | 2475 | 2670 | 2675 | 2700 | 2650 | 2600 | 2575 | 2575 | 2575 | 2575 |
Silver ($US/troy oz.) | 23.37 | 28.87 | 29.45 | 31.75 | 32.00 | 32.50 | 31.50 | 31.00 | 30.75 | 30.75 | 30.75 | 30.75 |
Copper (cents/lb) | 383 | 442 | 418 | 420 | 435 | 435 | 440 | 440 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 |
Nickel ($US/lb) | 7.52 | 8.35 | 7.38 | 7.35 | 7.25 | 7.20 | 7.15 | 7.15 | 7.15 | 7.15 | 7.25 | 7.45 |
Aluminum (cents/lb) | 100 | 114 | 108 | 117 | 118 | 120 | 120 | 118 | 115 | 115 | 117 | 117 |
Wheat ($US/bu) | 5.87 | 6.04 | 5.06 | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.70 | 5.70 | 5.80 | 5.85 | 5.90 | 5.95 |
U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
Economic Indicators | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Annual Average | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr | |||||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | Q1F | Q2F | Q3F | Q4F | 24F | 25F | 26F | 24F | 25F | 26F | |
Real GDP | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Consumer Expenditure | 1.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Durable Goods | -1.7 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 3.1 |
Business Investment | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | -0.6 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
Non-Res. Structures | 6.2 | 0.2 | -4.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
Equipment & IPP* | 4.8 | 6.4 | 6.3 | -0.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
Residential Investment | 13.7 | -2.8 | -5.0 | -1.8 | -2.1 | -1.9 | 1.6 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | -1.5 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 8.9 |
Govt. Expenditure | 1.8 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Final Domestic Demand | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Exports | 1.9 | 1.0 | 7.5 | -1.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
Imports | 6.1 | 7.6 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
Change in Private Inventories | 17.7 | 71.7 | 64.1 | 53.9 | 64.8 | 74.1 | 73.1 | 73.3 | 63.5 | 53.8 | 44.1 | 44.1 | 51.9 | 71.3 | 51.4 | -- | -- | -- |
Final Sales | 2.1 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||||||
Including IVA&CCA | -6.8 | 15.2 | -1.1 | 4.8 | 4.1 | -6.6 | -21.2 | -16.1 | 11.5 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 6.9 | -2.6 | -1.9 | 2.7 | -10.5 | 7.9 |
% of GDP | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 11.4 | -- | -- | -- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
Nominal GDP | 4.7 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.8 |
Labor Force | -0.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Non-Farm Employment | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Change in Non-Farm Empl. ('000s) | 771 | 576 | 432 | 436 | 448 | 288 | 203 | 310 | 391 | 370 | 328 | 282 | 2512 | 1530 | 1309 | 2215 | 1249 | 1371 |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Disp. Income | 9.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 3.9 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 | -- | -- | -- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
Core CPI (y/y) | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
Housing Starts (mns) | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -- | -- | -- |
Real Output per Hour** (y/y) | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe
2023 | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F | ||
Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change) | |||||
G7 (42.4%)* | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
U.S. | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | |
Japan | 1.7 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | |
Euro Area | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | |
Germany | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | |
France | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | |
Italy | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
United Kingdom | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |
Canada | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change) | |||||
G7 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
U.S. | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | |
Japan | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | |
Euro Area | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |
Germany | 6.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
France | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | |
Italy | 5.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | |
United Kingdom | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | |
Canada | 3.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | |
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages) | |||||
U.S. | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | |
Japan | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
Euro Area | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.5 | |
Germany | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | |
France | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.2 | |
Italy | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | |
United Kingdom | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | |
Canada | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
Global Economic Outlook
[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
2022 Share* | Forecast | |||
Real GDP | (%) | 2024F | 2025F | 2026F |
World | 100.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
North America | 18.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
United States | 15.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Canada | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Mexico | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
European Union (EU-27) | 14.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Euro Area (EU-20) | 12.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Germany | 3.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
France | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
Italy | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Other EU Members | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
Asia | 45.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
Japan | 3.8 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Asian NIC's | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
Hong Kong | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
Korea | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
Singapore | 0.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
Taiwan | 1.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
Russia | 2.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Australia & New Zealand | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
Emerging Asia | 32.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
ASEAN-5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
China | 18.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
India** | 7.3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 6.5 |
Central/South America | 5.4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Brazil | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Other Emerging Markets | 12.7 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
Other Advanced | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
United Kingdom | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
Economic Indicator | Annual Average | Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter | ||||||||||||
24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 30F | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 30F | |
Real GDP | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Consumer Expenditure | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Durable Goods | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Business Investment | 3.7 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Non-Res. Structures | 3.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Equipment & IPP* | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Residential Investment | 3.7 | -1.5 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Govt. Expenditure | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Final Domestic Demand | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Exports | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
Imports | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Change in Private | ||||||||||||||
Inventories | 51.9 | 71.3 | 51.4 | 44.2 | 44.3 | 44.4 | 44.5 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Final Sales | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Pre-Tax Corporate Profits | ||||||||||||||
Including IVA&CCA | 6.9 | -2.6 | -1.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -10.5 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
% of GDP | 13.0 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Nominal GDP | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
Labor Force | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Employment | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) | 2,512 | 1,530 | 1,309 | 1,113 | 1,080 | 1,080 | 1,080 | 2,215 | 1,249 | 1,371 | 1,050 | 1,080 | 1,080 | 1,080 |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Personal Disp. Income | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Core CPI (y/y) | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Housing Starts (mns) | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Real Output per Hour** (y/y) | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
Economic Indicator | Annual Average | 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter | ||||||||||||
24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 30F | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 30F | |
Real GDP | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Consumer Expenditure | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Durable Goods | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Business Investment | -1.3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Non-Res. Structures | -1.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Equipment & IPP* | -1.1 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Residential Investment | -1.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -1.7 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Govt. Expenditure | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Final Domestic Demand | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Exports | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Imports | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Change in Non-Farm | ||||||||||||||
Inventories (2012 $Bn) | 19.3 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 11.4 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Final Sales | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
International Current | ||||||||||||||
Account Balance ($Bn) | -12.7 | -16.2 | -12.4 | -10.7 | -9.7 | -8.7 | -7.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
% of GDP | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Pre-Tax Corp. Profits | -5.7 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | -9.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
% of GDP | 12.8 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 12.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Nominal GDP | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
Labour Force | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Employment | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) | 340 | 234 | 105 | 98 | 124 | 136 | 133 | 315 | 163 | 108 | 96 | 133 | 135 | 131 |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Disp. Income | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) | 6.5 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
CPIX (y/y) ** | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
BoC Inflation (y/y) *** | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Housing Starts ('000s) | 241.0 | 228.0 | 225.7 | 241.9 | 252.4 | 249.6 | 248.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Home Prices (y/y) | 2.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
Real GDP / Worker (y/y) | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Long-Term Interest Rates
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
Interest Rates | Annual Average | End of Period | ||||||||||||
24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 30F | 24F | 25F | 26F | 27F | 28F | 29F | 30F | |
U.S. FIXED INCOME | ||||||||||||||
Fed Funds Target Rate (%)* | 5.30 | 4.01 | 3.13 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) | 5.02 | 3.81 | 2.98 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 4.35 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 4.37 | 3.66 | 3.02 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 4.15 | 3.15 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 4.11 | 3.85 | 3.46 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 4.05 | 3.55 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 4.20 | 4.02 | 3.71 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 4.20 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) | -0.17 | 0.37 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.05 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
CANADIAN FIXED INCOME | ||||||||||||||
Overnight Target Rate (%) | 4.55 | 2.76 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) | 4.38 | 2.65 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.17 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 3.51 | 2.48 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.95 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 3.25 | 2.85 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) | 3.34 | 3.07 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) | -0.17 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.15 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
Disclaimer
This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.
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