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U.S. Latest Forecast Tables

 

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Interest Rates

F: Forecast by TD Economics, November 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Interest Rates 2024 2025 2026
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Fed Funds Target Rate  5.50 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00
3-mth T-Bill Rate  5.23 5.22 4.52 4.45 4.05 3.80 3.55 3.30 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.59 4.71 3.66 4.25 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.21 4.33 3.58 4.20 4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.20 4.36 3.81 4.30 4.30 4.10 3.95 3.75 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.34 4.51 4.14 4.45 4.50 4.40 4.25 4.05 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread -0.39 -0.35 0.15 0.05 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.50 0.70 0.70 0.70

Foreign Exchange Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Currency Exchange Rate 2024 2025 2026
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
 Euro   USD per EUR 1.08 1.07 1.12 1.07 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.14
 UK Pound   USD per GBP 1.26 1.26 1.34 1.29 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30
 Australian Dollar   USD per AUD 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.71
 NZ Dollar   USD per NZD 0.60 0.61 0.64 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65
 Canadian Dollar   CAD per USD 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33
 Swiss Franc   CHF per USD 0.90 0.90 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84
 Japanese Yen   JPY per USD 151 161 143 152 151 149 148 147 146 145 144 144
 Chinese Renminbi CNY per USD 7.2 7.3 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8

Global Stock Markets

*Weighted equity index including both developed and emerging markets. Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes Price 30-Day YTD 52-Week 52-Week
Aug-23 % Chg. % Chg.  High Low
S&P 500 5,605 0.9 17.5 5,667 4,117
S&P/TSX Composite 23,177 1.6 10.6 23,177 18,737
DAX 18,579 0.1 10.9 18,869 14,687
FTSE 100 8,315 1.8 7.5 8,446 7,291
Nikkei 38,364 -3.1 14.6 42,224 30,527
MSCI AC World Index* 823 0.8 13.2 831 629

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024. All forecasts are period averages. Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.

Commodity 2024 2025 2026
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 77 81 77 76 75 76 77 78 78 78 79 79
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 2.23 2.07 2.20 2.50 2.90 3.10 3.10 3.30 3.32 3.33 3.35 3.37
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 2072 2336 2430 2475 2495 2450 2400 2375 2387 2399 2411 2423
Silver ($US/troy oz.) 23.37 28.87 28.75 29.50 32.00 31.50 31.00 30.50 30.65 30.81 30.96 31.11
Copper (cents/lb) 383 442 413 420 435 435 435 435 437 439 442 444
Nickel ($US/lb) 7.52 8.35 7.40 7.53 7.70 7.60 7.60 7.50 7.54 7.58 7.61 7.65
Aluminum (cents/lb) 100 114 107 111 112 112 115 115 116 116 117 117
Wheat ($US/bu) 5.87 6.04 5.50 5.60 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.83 5.86 5.89 5.92

U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Intellectual Property Products.
** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators 2024 2025 2026 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 24F 25F 26F 24F 25F 26F
 Real GDP 1.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.2
 Consumer Expenditure 1.5 2.9 3.5 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.8 2.5 1.5 2.0
Durable Goods             -4.4 4.9 9.0 2.6 -0.4 1.0 1.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 1.3 3.0
 Business Investment 4.4 4.6 3.7 2.7 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8
Non-Res. Structures 3.4 -1.6 0.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.2 3.1 3.0 1.9 3.2 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 4.8 6.4 4.7 1.8 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.9 5.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.4 4.4 3.9 4.1
 Residential Investment 16.0 -2.1 -13.0 -1.5 6.0 10.0 11.8 13.7 11.4 9.1 6.7 4.4 2.7 3.4 10.3 -0.7 10.3 7.9
 Govt. Expenditure 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.1 1.1 0.3 2.0 0.5 0.2
 Final Domestic Demand 2.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.2
 Exports                   1.6 1.6 4.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.4 2.9 3.5
 Imports                   6.1 7.0 7.0 4.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.4 3.4 2.6 6.1 2.2 2.8
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 28.6 69.0 66.1 65.1 59.3 57.2 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 57.2 56.6 55.0 -- -- --
 Final Sales 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.2
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -951 -1024 -1029 -1099 -1103 -1112 -1107 -1106 -1092 -1099 -1095 -1088 -1026 -1107 -1093 -- -- --
% of GDP  -3.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.8 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.4 -3.6 -3.7 -3.5 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 Including IVA&CCA -5.4 7.0 8.7 -4.9 -4.7 6.1 5.5 5.9 9.8 5.6 7.7 7.1 5.5 1.5 7.1 1.1 3.1 7.5
% of GDP  11.9 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.9 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3
 Nominal GDP  4.5 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.2 4.0 4.4 4.5 5.2 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.5
 Labor Force -0.6 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7
 Employment  2.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.7
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  771 576 377 333 295 356 360 360 300 270 270 270 2459 1414 1244 2057 1371 1110
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.0 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  4.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 5.6 4.9 4.8 5.0 3.8 3.9 4.8 3.9 4.1 5.1
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.0 3.9 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.1 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.4 2.3 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 -- -- --
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.6

 

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Share of 2022 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Source: National Statistics Agencies, TD Economics.

  2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 (42.4%)* 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8
  U.S. 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.3
  Japan 1.7 0.2 1.5 0.8
  Euro Area 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.3
  Germany -0.1 0.0 1.0 1.3
  France 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6
  Italy 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.8
  United Kingdom 0.1 1.1 1.4 1.5
  Canada 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.0
Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.0
  U.S. 4.1 3.1 2.3 2.2
  Japan 3.3 2.2 1.5 1.5
  Euro Area 5.4 2.5 2.1 2.0
  Germany 6.0 2.4 2.0 2.0
  France 5.7 2.5 1.9 2.0
  Italy 5.9 1.2 1.8 1.7
  United Kingdom 7.3 2.6 2.4 2.1
  Canada 3.9 2.5 2.1 2.1
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages)
  U.S. 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.0
  Japan 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3
  Euro Area 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4
  Germany 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.8
  France 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.2
  Italy 7.7 7.2 7.7 7.6
  United Kingdom 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.3
  Canada 5.4 6.4 6.7 6.3

 

Global Economic Outlook

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Share of 2022 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: International Monetary Fund, TD Economics.
2022 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2024F 2025F 2026F
World 100.0 3.2 3.1 3.1
North America 18.9 2.4 1.9 2.2
   United States 15.5 2.6 1.9 2.3
   Canada 1.4 1.1 1.7 2.0
   Mexico 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.0
European Union (EU-27) 14.9 1.0 1.6 1.5
   Euro Area (EU-20) 12.0 0.8 1.3 1.3
        Germany 3.3 0.0 1.0 1.3
        France  2.3 1.2 1.2 1.6
        Italy 1.9 0.8 1.1 0.8
   Other EU Members 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.4
Asia 45.0 4.4 4.2 4.1
   Japan 3.8 0.2 1.5 0.8
   Asian NIC's 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.5
        Hong Kong 0.3 3.2 2.4 2.6
        Korea 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.5
        Singapore  0.4 2.5 2.2 2.5
        Taiwan 1.0 3.9 2.7 2.4
   Russia 2.9 3.8 2.2 1.8
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 1.2 2.3 2.5
   Emerging Asia 32.8 5.3 5.0 4.9
        ASEAN-5 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.1
        China 18.4 4.9 4.4 4.3
        India** 7.3 6.5 6.7 6.5
Central/South America 5.4 1.6 2.4 2.4
   Brazil 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.2
Other Emerging Markets 12.7 3.2 3.7 3.4
Other Advanced 3.4 1.3 1.7 3.2
   United Kingdom 2.3 1.1 1.4 1.5

Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Intellectual property products.
** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F
 Real GDP 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
 Consumer Expenditure 2.5 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
Durable Goods             2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 1.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Business Investment 3.9 3.4 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Non-Res. Structures 5.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.9 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 3.6 3.5 4.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.4 3.9 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
 Residential Investment 2.7 3.4 10.3 4.3 1.9 1.4 1.3 -0.7 10.3 7.9 3.0 1.5 1.3 1.3
 Govt. Expenditure 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
 Final Domestic Demand 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0
 Exports                   2.3 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
 Imports                   4.4 3.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.1 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories 57.2 56.6 55.0 54.9 54.8 54.7 54.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
 International Current                            
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -1025.5 -1107.0 -1093.1 -1076.5 -1059.7 -1020.9 -955.8 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
% of GDP  -3.6 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1 -2.9 -2.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits                            
 Including IVA&CCA 5.5 1.5 7.1 5.6 4.1 5.3 7.2 1.1 3.1 7.5 4.4 4.4 6.1 7.8
% of GDP  11.9 11.6 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
 Nominal GDP  5.2 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3
 Labor Force 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
 Employment  1.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  2,459 1,414 1,244 1,079 1,080 1,080 1,080 2,057 1,371 1,110 1,079 1,080 1,080 1,080
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  3.8 3.9 4.8 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.8 3.9 4.1 5.1 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.1 3.0 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.5 7.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 3.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 3.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6

Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Intellectual Property Products.
** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components.
*** BoC Inflation: Avg. of CPI-trim and CPI-median. Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.
            Economic Indicator                 Annual Average 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter
24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F
  Real GDP 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
Consumer Expenditure 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7
Durable Goods             1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
Business Investment -1.6 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8
Non-Res. Structures -2.2 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 3.0 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8
Equipment & IPP* -1.0 0.9 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 0.5 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8
Residential Investment -0.4 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 -0.2 4.3 3.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8
Govt. Expenditure 2.6