Latest Forecast Tables    

Share this:

 

Economic & Financial Forecasts

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2022; Forecasts for exchange rate and yields are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Federal Reserve.
  2022F 2023F 2024F
Real GDP (annual % change)      
World 2.8 2.2 3.0
U.S. 1.6 0.7 1.2
U.S. Rates (%)      
Fed Funds Target Rate  4.25 3.50 2.00
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.35 2.45 2.25
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.90 2.95 2.70
 WTI ($US/bbl) 85 81 77

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Rates

F: Forecast by TD Economics, October 2022; Forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg.
Interest & Exchange Rates Spot Rate 2021 2022 2023
Oct-19 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Interest Rates                            
Fed Funds Target Rate  3.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.75 3.25 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 3.50
3-mth T-Bill Rate  3.90 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.51 1.66 3.22 4.30 4.40 4.40 3.90 3.00
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.55 0.16 0.25 0.28 0.73 2.28 2.92 4.22 4.50 4.00 3.30 2.70 2.45
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.35 0.92 0.87 0.98 1.26 2.42 3.01 4.06 4.30 3.80 3.25 3.05 2.85
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.13 1.74 1.45 1.52 1.52 2.32 2.98 3.83 4.10 3.65 3.25 3.10 2.95
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.12 2.41 2.06 2.08 1.90 2.44 3.14 3.79 4.10 3.70 3.50 3.40 3.25
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread -0.42 1.58 1.20 1.24 0.79 0.04 0.06 -0.39 -0.40 -0.35 -0.05 0.40 0.50
Exchange rate to U.S. dollar                          
 Chinese Yuan CNY per USD 7.23 6.55 6.46 6.44 6.36 6.34 6.70 7.11 7.20 7.15 7.10 7.05 7.00
 Japanese yen JPY per USD 150 111 111 112 115 121 136 145 149 150 151 148 145
 Euro USD per EUR 0.98 1.17 1.19 1.16 1.13 1.11 1.05 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.99
 U.K. pound USD per GBP 1.12 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.32 1.22 1.11 1.12 1.10 1.07 1.08 1.10
 Swiss franc CHF per USD 1.00 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
 Canadian dollar CAD per USD 1.38 1.26 1.24 1.27 1.28 1.25 1.29 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.39 1.37
 Australian dollar USD per AUD 0.63 0.76 0.75 0.72 0.72 0.75 0.69 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.63 0.65
 NZ dollar USD per NZD 0.57 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.70 0.63 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.55 0.57
Exchange rate to Euro                          
 U.S. dollar USD per EUR 0.98 1.17 1.19 1.16 1.13 1.11 1.05 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.99
 Japanese yen JPY per EUR 146 130 132 129 130 135 142 142 146 146 145 144 143
 U.K. pound GBP per EUR 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.90
 Swiss franc CHF per EUR 0.98 1.11 1.10 1.08 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.96 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.99
 Canadian dollar CAD per EUR 1.35 1.48 1.47 1.47 1.44 1.39 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.36
 Australian dollar AUD per EUR 1.56 1.54 1.58 1.60 1.56 1.48 1.52 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.53 1.53
 NZ dollar NZD per EUR 1.72 1.68 1.70 1.68 1.66 1.60 1.68 1.73 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.75 1.75
Exchange rate to Japanese yen                          
 U.S. dollar  JPY per USD 150 111 111 112 115 121 136 145 149 150 151 148 145
 Euro  JPY per EUR 146 130 132 129 130 135 142 142 146 146 145 144 143
 U.K. pound  JPY per GBP 168 153 153 150 155 160 165 161 167 165 162 160 160
 Swiss franc  JPY per CHF 149.1 117.4 120.0 119.4 125.7 131.8 142.1 147.0 149.0 150.0 151.0 148.0 145.0
 Canadian dollar  JPY per CAD 108.9 88.0 89.5 88.0 90.2 97.3 105.4 105.2 108.0 107.9 107.9 106.8 105.7
 Australian dollar  JPY per AUD 94.0 84.2 83.2 80.6 83.3 91.1 93.7 93.2 95.4 94.5 93.6 93.6 93.6
 NZ dollar  JPY per NZD 85.0 77.3 77.5 76.9 78.5 84.4 84.7 81.6 83.6 82.8 82.1 82.0 82.0

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, October 2022; Forecast are period averages; E: Estimate.
Source: Bloomberg, USDA (Haver).
Commodity  Price 52-Week 52-Week 2021 2022 2023
Oct-19 High Low Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 86 124 66 58 66 71 77 94 109 91 85 88 85 83 81
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 5.92 9.82 3.34 3.56 2.94 4.36 4.77 4.66 7.48 8.30 8.50 7.50 6.00 5.00 5.50
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1629 2051 1622 1796 1815 1790 1796 1876 1873 1735 1770 1800 1725 1734 1742
Silver (US$/troy oz.) 18.47 26.41 17.81 26.25 26.71 24.30 23.35 24.05 22.66 18.50 19.60 19.90 20.00 20.10 20.20
Copper (cents/lb) 339 513 325 385 439 425 440 453 433 340 360 360 355 357 359
Nickel (US$/lb) 9.92 21.81 8.67 7.97 7.86 8.67 8.99 12.73 13.20 10.00 9.50 9.30 9.30 9.35 9.39
Aluminum (Cents/lb) 99 175 96 95 109 120 125 148 131 110 113 115 117 118 118
Wheat ($US/bu) 11.21 15.64 10.07 7.41 8.53 10.27 11.44 11.55 13.69 8.00 8.50 8.80 8.30 8.34 8.38

 

Global Stock Markets

*Weighted equity index including both developing and emerging markets.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes Price 30-Day YTD 52-Week 52-Week
Oct-19 % Chg. % Chg.  High Low
S&P 500 3,695 -4.6 -22.5 4,797 3,577
DAX 12,741 0.0 -19.8 16,272 11,976
FTSE 100 6,925 -4.3 -6.2 7,672 6,826
Nikkei 27,257 -1.1 -5.3 29,808 24,718
MSCI AC World Index* 570 -4.6 -24.5 759 550
   

U.S. Economic Outlook.

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2022.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators          2022 2023 2024 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 22F 23F 24F 22F 23F 24F
 Real GDP -1.6 -0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 0.7 1.2 0.0 0.7 1.5
 Consumer Expenditure 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.4 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.3
Durable Goods             5.9 -0.1 4.4 0.7 -4.1 -3.7 -5.5 -2.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -1.9 -1.7 2.7 -4.0 -0.5
 Business Investment 10.0 0.0 3.2 1.9 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.9 4.3 0.8 0.6 3.7 0.0 1.3
Non-Res. Structures -0.9 -13.2 -10.3 -3.0 -6.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.6 -6.5 -6.4 -1.4 -7.0 -5.3 0.6
Equipment & IPP* 12.4 3.3 6.6 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.0 6.9 2.5 1.1 6.3 1.3 1.4
 Residential Investment 0.5 -16.2 -31.4 -17.4 -6.0 -1.1 1.0 2.7 5.3 8.9 7.8 5.7 -9.7 -10.5 4.9 -16.9 -0.9 6.9
 Govt. Expenditure -2.9 -1.8 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 -1.5 0.5 0.8 -0.9 0.7 0.9
 Final Domestic Demand 2.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.6 1.4
 Exports                   -4.8 17.6 8.5 4.5 1.7 1.2 1.0 2.6 3.6 3.6 4.3 3.8 6.9 3.8 3.0 6.1 1.6 3.8
 Imports                   18.9 2.8 -5.1 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.2 8.7 0.4 2.5 4.2 1.2 3.2
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 188.5 99.6 79.7 84.3 88.0 82.7 94.5 102.1 102.1 102.0 102.0 102.0 113.0 91.8 102.0 -- -- --
 Final Sales -1.2 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.6 1.5
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -1166 -1057 -904 -837 -820 -775 -737 -716 -695 -696 -706 -733 -991 -762 -708 -- -- --
% of GDP  -4.8 -4.2 -3.6 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -4.0 -2.9 -2.6 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 including IVA&CCA -8.4 26.7 -0.2 7.7 -3.6 -1.3 1.6 2.7 2.3 3.0 2.6 1.7 7.6 2.0 2.2 5.7 -0.2 2.4
% of GDP  11.8 12.2 12.1 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 12.0 11.7 11.6 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 6.8 7.5 7.5 7.2 5.9 4.4 3.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 7.3 4.1 2.1 7.2 2.7 1.9
 Nominal GDP  6.6 8.4 6.6 6.7 4.1 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 9.0 4.8 3.3 7.0 3.4 3.4
 Labor Force 5.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.6 1.9 0.9 0.5
 Employment  4.7 3.3 3.0 1.3 0.8 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 4.0 0.9 -0.4 3.1 -0.1 -0.2
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  1721 1226 1140 507 288 -91 -214 -212 -111 -141 -73 -28 5867 1317 -549 4594 -229 -353
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  -1.3 6.5 4.6 6.2 4.9 3.5 4.4 3.7 4.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 0.4 4.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.9
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  5.6 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 5.1 5.5 6.3 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 8.0 8.6 8.4 7.4 5.8 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 8.1 3.7 2.1 7.4 2.5 2.0
 Core CPI (y/y) 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.0 5.2 4.3 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 6.1 4.0 2.6 6.0 3.1 2.5
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.8 3.3 2.4 4.5 2.7 2.2
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.72 1.66 1.47 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.32 1.34 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.47 1.57 1.34 1.44 -- -- --
 Real Output per hour** (y/y) -0.6 -2.4 -1.7 -3.4 -1.5 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 -2.0 0.0 1.8 -3.4 1.1 2.0
 

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe.

*Share of 2019 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Forecast as at September 2022.
Source: National statistics agencies, TD Economics.
    2021 2022F 2023F 2024F
Real GDP (annual per cent change)
G7 (30.1%)* 5.1 2.0 0.4 1.2
  U.S. 5.7 1.6 0.7 1.2
  Japan 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.1
  Euro Area 5.2 3.1 -0.2 1.4
  Germany 2.6 1.6 -0.9 1.6
  France 6.8 2.6 0.2 1.4
  Italy 6.6 3.3 -0.3 1.2
  United Kingdom 7.4 3.5 -0.7 0.9
  Canada 4.5 3.3 0.9 1.0
Consumer Price Index (annual per cent change)
G7 3.2 7.2 4.0 1.9
  U.S. 4.7 8.1 3.7 2.1
  Japan -0.2 2.0 1.5 1.2
  Euro Area 2.6 8.2 5.6 1.8
  Germany 3.2 8.2 5.7 1.8
  France 2.1 6.4 4.8 1.9
  Italy 1.9 7.9 5.9 1.8
  United Kingdom 2.6 8.9 5.6 2.1
  Canada 3.4 6.9 3.8 2.1
Unemployment Rate (per cent annual averages)
  U.S. 5.4 3.7 4.2 4.9
  Japan 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4
  Euro Area 7.7 6.8 7.5 7.6
  Germany 5.7 5.4 6.0 5.7
  France 7.9 7.6 8.2 8.0
  Italy 9.5 8.3 9.2 9.2
  United Kingdom 4.5 3.8 4.6 4.9
  Canada 7.4 5.4 6.1 6.5
 

Global Economic Outlook.

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

*Share of world GDP on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis.
Forecast as at September 2022. **Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: IMF, TD Economics.
2019 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2022 2023 2024
World 100.0 2.8 2.2 3.0
North America 19.2 1.8 0.8 1.2
   United States 15.8 1.6 0.7 1.2
   Canada 1.4 3.3 0.9 1.0
   Mexico 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.8
European Union (EU-28) 15.4 3.2 -0.1 1.6
   Euro Area (EU-19) 12.5 3.1 -0.2 1.4
        Germany 3.5 1.6 -0.9 1.6
        France  2.4 2.6 0.2 1.4
        Italy 2.0 3.3 -0.3 1.2
   United Kingdom 2.4 3.5 -0.7 0.9
   EU accession members 2.9 3.1 0.0 2.5
Asia 43.2 3.0 3.7 4.5
   Japan 4.1 1.5 1.5 1.1
   Asian NIC's 3.5 2.5 2.2 2.5
        Hong Kong 0.3 -1.2 2.9 2.3
        Korea 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.5
        Singapore  0.4 3.4 2.5 2.6
        Taiwan 0.9 3.3 2.4 2.9
   Russia 3.1 -6.4 -6.1 1.9
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 3.7 2.2 2.2
Emerging Asia 31.4 4.1 5.2 5.5
        ASEAN-5 5.7 5.6 5.1 5.2
        China 17.3 2.6 4.2 4.8
        India** 7.1 6.5 7.4 7.3
Central/South America 5.6 3.7 1.3 2.3
   Brazil 2.4 2.6 0.8 2.0
Other Emerging Markets 13.0 2.7 2.7 3.1
Other Advanced 1.1 3.8 2.4 2.2

Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

*Intellectual property products. F: Forecast by TD Economics as at September 2022.
**Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
22F 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 22F 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F
 Real GDP 1.6 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.0 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
 Consumer Expenditure 2.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9
Durable Goods             -0.4 -1.9 -1.7 -0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.7 -4.0 -0.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2
 Business Investment 4.3 0.8 0.6 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.7 0.0 1.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Non-Res. Structures -6.5 -6.4 -1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 -7.0 -5.3 0.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Equipment & IPP* 6.9 2.5 1.1 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.3 1.3 1.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1
 Residential Investment -9.7 -10.5 4.9 4.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 -16.9 -0.9 6.9 2.9 1.7 1.5 1.5
 Govt. Expenditure -1.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1
 Final Domestic Demand 1.4 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
 Exports                   6.9 3.8 3.0 3.7 3.2 3.0 2.9 6.1 1.6 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.9
 Imports                   8.7 0.4 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 4.2 1.2 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.4
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories 113.0 91.8 102.0 102.0 101.9 101.9 101.8 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
 International Current                            
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -991 -762 -708 -739 -692 -666 -611 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
% of GDP  -4.0 -2.9 -2.6 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -1.9 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                            
 including IVA&CCA 7.6 2.0 2.2 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.7 5.7 -0.2 2.4 1.1 2.3 3.0 3.9
% of GDP  12.0 11.7 11.6 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.9 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 7.3 4.1 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 7.2 2.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2
 Nominal GDP  9.0 4.8 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.0 7.0 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.0
 Labor Force 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
 Employment  4.0 0.9 -0.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 3.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  5,867 1,317 -549 602 1,398 1,032 454 4,594 -229 -353 1,195 1,400 721 420
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.7 4.2 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  0.4 4.8 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.4
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  5.1 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.2 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 8.1 3.7 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 7.4 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 6.1</