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Interest Rate Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Interest Rates 2023 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Fed Funds Target Rate  5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25 2.75
3-mth T-Bill Rate  4.68 5.17 5.32 5.20 5.25 5.30 4.90 4.40 3.90 3.40 2.90 2.65
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.06 4.87 5.03 4.23 4.60 4.40 4.10 3.80 3.50 3.20 2.90 2.75
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.60 4.13 4.60 3.84 4.20 4.05 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.05 2.95 2.95
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.48 3.81 4.59 3.88 4.20 4.10 3.85 3.65 3.45 3.30 3.20 3.20
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.67 3.85 4.73 4.03 4.35 4.25 4.15 3.95 3.75 3.60 3.50 3.50
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread -0.58 -1.06 -0.44 -0.35 -0.40 -0.30 -0.25 -0.15 -0.05 0.10 0.30 0.45

Foreign Exchange Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Currency Exchange Rate 2023 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
 Euro   USD per EUR 1.09 1.09 1.06 1.11 1.08 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.18
 UK Pound   USD per GBP 1.24 1.27 1.22 1.27 1.26 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30
 Australian Dollar   USD per AUD 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
 NZ Dollar   USD per NZD 0.63 0.61 0.60 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.65 0.66 0.67
 Canadian Dollar   CAD per USD 1.35 1.32 1.35 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.35 1.32 1.30 1.27 1.25
 Swiss Franc   CHF per USD 0.91 0.89 0.91 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84
 Japanese Yen   JPY per USD 133 144 149 141 145 144 143 142 141 140 138 137
 Chinese Renminbi CNY per USD 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024. All forecasts are period averages.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Commodity 2023 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 76 74 82 78 76 82 82 80 79 78 78 77
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 2.66 2.16 2.59 2.75 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 2.90 2.90 3.00 3.00
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1889 1977 1928 1977 2050 2175 2075 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
Silver ($US/troy oz.) 22.56 24.19 23.58 23.27 23.25 25.00 24.50 24.00 24.00 24.00 23.50 23.50
Copper (cents/lb) 405 384 379 371 380 395 400 400 395 395 390 390
Nickel ($US/lb) 11.81 10.13 9.23 7.81 7.60 7.80 8.00 8.20 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30
Aluminum (cents/lb) 109 103 98 99 100 100 104 104 106 106 108 108
Wheat ($US/bu) 7.32 6.50 5.76 5.89 5.75 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Global Stock Markets

*Weighted equity index including both developing and emerging markets.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes Price 30-Day YTD 52-Week 52-Week
Jan-24 % Chg. % Chg.  High Low
S&P 500 4,892 2.9 27.4 4,892 3,856
DAX 16,877 1.0 21.2 16,877 14,687
FTSE 100 7,527 -2.2 1.0 8,014 7,257
Nikkei 36,226 9.2 38.8 36,547 26,906
MSCI AC World Index* 727 0.9 20.2 729 612

U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators 2023 2024 2025 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 23 24F 25F 23 24F 25F
 Real GDP 2.2 2.1 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.8 3.1 1.6 2.0
 Consumer Expenditure 3.8 0.8 3.1 3.0 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.7 1.8 1.8
Durable Goods             14.0 -0.3 6.7 3.2 -1.3 3.1 1.0 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.1 2.7 4.2 1.9 2.4 5.7 1.3 2.7
 Business Investment 5.7 7.4 1.5 2.4 0.5 0.7 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 4.4 1.9 3.5 4.2 2.0 3.7
Non-Res. Structures 30.3 16.1 11.2 7.6 2.0 -2.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 13.0 4.5 3.9 16.0 2.2 3.7
Equipment & IPP* -0.9 5.1 -1.2 1.6 0.1 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 3.7 3.3 2.1 1.3 3.4 1.1 1.9 3.7
 Residential Investment -5.3 -2.2 6.7 2.9 5.8 -0.6 1.3 4.2 6.2 7.5 6.0 5.1 -10.6 3.0 4.9 0.4 2.6 6.2
 Govt. Expenditure 4.8 3.3 5.8 4.2 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 4.0 3.0 0.8 4.5 1.7 0.5
 Final Domestic Demand 3.8 2.0 3.5 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.9 3.1 1.8 2.0
 Exports                   6.8 -9.3 5.4 6.4 4.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.1 2.7 2.9
 Imports                   1.3 -7.6 4.2 2.7 5.1 3.1 2.2 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.2 -1.6 2.8 3.0 0.0 3.3 3.2
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 27.2 14.9 77.8 66.3 61.6 50.0 31.2 31.6 36.5 41.5 41.5 41.6 46.6 43.6 40.3 -- -- --
 Final Sales 4.6 2.1 3.6 3.5 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.4 1.8 3.4 1.7 1.9
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -858 -867 -801 -820 -895 -912 -927 -958 -971 -994 -1007 -1013 -837 -923 -996 -- -- --
% of GDP  -3.2 -3.2 -2.9 -2.9 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.3 -3.3 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 Including IVA&CCA -9.9 0.9 14.4 3.3 7.4 -0.1 -6.6 -1.8 1.2 6.1 6.3 5.3 0.7 3.2 1.3 1.8 -0.4 4.7
% of GDP  11.8 11.7 11.9 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.8 11.6 11.3 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 5.3 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.2
 Nominal GDP  6.3 3.8 8.3 4.9 4.5 3.9 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 6.3 4.7 4.1 5.8 4.0 4.2
 Labor Force 3.9 1.4 1.9 0.4 -0.8 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.5
 Employment  2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.3 1.4 0.4 1.9 0.9 0.5
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  899 753 667 617 735 534 145 21 132 220 238 239 3534 2198 697 2936 1435 829
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.1 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  15.5 5.8 3.1 4.0 4.5 5.4 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.2 8.1 4.4 4.7 7.0 4.5 5.0
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  4.8 5.1 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 4.5 3.9 4.6 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 5.7 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.1 1.9 4.1 3.2 2.2 3.2 3.0 1.9
 Core CPI (y/y) 5.5 5.2 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 4.8 3.6 2.4 4.0 3.3 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 4.1 2.7 2.2 3.2 2.7 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 -- -- --
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) -0.7 1.2 2.3 2.6 3.4 2.6 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.2 2.6 1.2 1.4

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024.
* Share of 2021 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Source: National Statistics Agencies, TD Economics.
    2022 2023 2024F 2025F
Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 (42.4%)* 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.5
  U.S. 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8
  Japan 0.9 1.9 0.7 1.1
  Euro Area 3.5 0.5 0.3 1.2
  Germany 1.9 -0.1 0.0 1.3
  France 2.5 0.9 0.5 1.3
  Italy 4.1 1.0 0.5 1.0
  United Kingdom 4.3 0.1 0.2 1.3
  Canada 3.8 1.1 0.9 1.5
Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 7.3 4.7 2.8 2.0
  U.S. 8.0 4.1 3.2 2.2
  Japan 2.5 3.3 2.4 1.5
  Euro Area 8.4 5.4 2.3 2.0
  Germany 8.7 6.0 2.4 2.0
  France 5.9 5.7 2.5 2.0
  Italy 8.7 5.9 1.7 1.8
  United Kingdom 9.1 7.3 2.3 1.9
  Canada 6.8 3.9 2.7 2.1
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages)
  U.S. 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.1
  Japan 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3
  Euro Area 6.7 6.5 6.9 6.8
  Germany 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.7
  France 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.3
  Italy 8.1 7.7 8.3 8.2
  United Kingdom 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.4
  Canada 5.3 5.4 6.3 6.6

Global Economic Outlook.

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024.
* Share of 2021 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: International Monetary Fund, TD Economics.
2022 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2023 2024F 2025F
World 100.0 3.2 2.8 3.0
North America 18.9 2.5 2.3 1.8
   United States 15.5 2.5 2.3 1.8
   Canada 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.5
   Mexico 1.9 3.2 2.6 1.9
European Union (EU-27) 14.9 0.5 0.6 1.4
   Euro Area (EU-20) 12.0 0.5 0.3 1.2
        Germany 3.3 -0.1 0.0 1.3
        France  2.3 0.9 0.5 1.3
        Italy 1.9 1.0 0.5 1.0
   Other EU Members 2.8 0.3 2.1 2.2
United Kingdom 2.3 0.1 0.2 1.3
Asia 45.0 4.7 4.2 4.1
   Japan 3.8 1.9 0.7 1.1
   Asian NIC's 3.5 1.5 2.6 2.0
        Hong Kong 0.3 3.2 2.3 2.5
        Korea 1.7 1.3 2.2 2.1
        Singapore  0.4 1.1 2.5 2.1
        Taiwan 1.0 1.3 3.6 1.8
   Russia 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.1
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 1.8 1.6 2.3
   Emerging Asia 32.8 5.7 5.0 5.0
        ASEAN-5 5.2 4.4 4.8 5.0
        China 18.4 5.2 4.6 4.3
        India** 7.3 8.0 6.2 6.5
Central/South America 5.4 1.4 1.1 2.3
   Brazil 2.3 2.9 1.6 2.2
Other Emerging Markets 12.7 3.3 2.4 3.2
Other Advanced 1.1 1.1 1.0 2.2


Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024.
* Intellectual property products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F
 Real GDP 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.1 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
 Consumer Expenditure 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
Durable Goods             4.2 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 5.7 1.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0
 Business Investment 4.4 1.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.2 2.0 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Non-Res. Structures 13.0 4.5 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 16.0 2.2 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 2.1 1.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.1 1.9 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Residential Investment -10.6 3.0 4.9 4.2 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.4 2.6 6.2 3.0 1.4 1.3 1.3
 Govt. Expenditure 4.0 3.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 4.5 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2
 Final Domestic Demand 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 3.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9
 Exports                   2.7 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Imports                   -1.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories 46.6 43.6 40.3 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 2.9 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
 International Current                            
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -837 -923 -996 -1024 -1027 -1005 -972 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
% of GDP  -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0 -2.8 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits                            
 Including IVA&CCA 0.7 3.2 1.3 3.9 2.2 2.3 2.8 1.8 -0.4 4.7 2.7 2.1 2.4 3.0
% of GDP  11.8 11.6 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 3.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
 Nominal GDP  6.3 4.7 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 5.8 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2
 Labor Force 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
 Employment  2.3 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  3,534 2,198 697 950 955 955 955 2,936 1,435 829 954 955 955 955
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.6 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  8.1 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.2 7.0 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.4 4.1
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  4.5 3.9 4.6 5.8 6.7 7.2 7.3 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 4.1 3.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 3.2 3.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
 Core CPI (y/y) 4.8 3.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 4.0 3.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 4.1 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.42 1.41 1.47 1.52 1.53 1.53 1.53 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 1.3 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2024. * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: Avg. of CPI-trim and CPI-median.
Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.
            Economic Indicator                 Annual Average 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter
23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F
  Real GDP 1.1 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
Consumer Expenditure 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7
Durable Goods             2.3 4.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.9 2.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7
Business Investment -0.6 -1.0 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 -2.6 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8
Non-Res. Structures 2.6 -1.5 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 -3.5 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.8
Equipment & IPP* -3.8 -0.4 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.9 -1.7 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8
Residential Investment -10.2 2.3 3.8 3.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 -3.0 3.2 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9
Govt. Expenditure 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
   Final Domestic Demand 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 0.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
Exports                   5.7 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 5.5 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
Imports                   1.0 1.3 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5
Change in Non-Farm