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U.S. Latest Forecast Tables

 

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Interest & Exchange Rate Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, April 2026; Forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg.
Interest & Exchange Rates Spot Rate 2025 2026 2027
Apr-16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Interest Rates                            
Fed Funds Target Rate  3.75 4.50 4.50 4.25 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3-mth T-Bill Rate  3.61 4.21 4.24 3.86 3.57 3.61 3.80 3.40 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.75 3.89 3.72 3.60 3.47 3.79 3.70 3.40 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.88 3.96 3.79 3.74 3.73 3.92 3.85 3.75 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.27 4.23 4.24 4.16 4.18 4.30 4.30 4.15 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.88 4.59 4.78 4.73 4.84 4.88 4.90 4.70 4.60 4.60 4.60 4.60 4.60
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 0.51 0.34 0.52 0.56 0.71 0.51 0.60 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
Exchange rate to U.S. dollar                          
 Chinese Yuan CNY per USD 6.82 7.26 7.16 7.12 6.99 6.90 6.85 6.80 6.75 6.70 6.65 6.60 6.55
 Japanese yen JPY per USD 159 150 144 148 157 159 159 158 158 157 156 156 155
 Euro USD per EUR 1.18 1.08 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.15 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
 U.K. pound USD per GBP 1.35 1.29 1.37 1.34 1.35 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39
 Canadian dollar CAD per USD 1.37 1.44 1.36 1.39 1.37 1.40 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33
 Australian dollar USD per AUD 0.72 0.62 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71
 NZ dollar USD per NZD 0.59 0.57 0.61 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60
Exchange rate to Euro                            
 U.S. dollar USD per EUR 1.18 1.08 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.15 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
 Japanese yen JPY per EUR 187 162 170 174 184 183 188 188 189 188 188 187 186
 U.K. pound GBP per EUR 0.87 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
 Canadian dollar CAD per EUR 1.62 1.55 1.60 1.63 1.61 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.62 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60
 Australian dollar AUD per EUR 1.64 1.73 1.79 1.77 1.76 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
 NZ dollar NZD per EUR 2.00 1.91 1.93 2.02 2.04 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02
Exchange rate to Japanese yen                          
 U.S. dollar  JPY per USD 159 150 144 148 157 159 159 158 158 157 156 156 155
 Euro  JPY per EUR 187 162 170 174 184 183 188 188 189 188 188 187 186
 U.K. pound  JPY per GBP 215 193 198 199 211 210 214 217 219 218 217 217 216
 Canadian dollar  JPY per CAD 115.9 104.2 105.9 106.2 114.4 114.0 115.6 115.9 116.8 118.1 117.6 117.1 116.7
 Australian dollar  JPY per AUD 114.1 93.5 94.8 97.9 104.6 109.0 111.6 112.1 112.6 112.1 111.7 111.2 110.8
 NZ dollar  JPY per NZD 93.7 84.9 87.8 85.8 90.2 90.8 93.0 93.4 93.8 93.4 93.0 92.7 92.3


Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, April 2026; Forecast are period averages; E: Estimate. Source: Bloomberg, USDA (Haver)..
Commodity  Price 52-Week 52-Week 2025 2026 2027
Apr-16 High Low Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 91 113 55 72 64 65 59 72 95 84 80 75 73 72 72
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 2.78 30.72 2.64 4.20 3.19 3.03 3.76 4.62 2.70 3.30 3.75 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 4817 5417 3177 2856 3284 3455 4150 4865 4750 4800 4900 4900 4900 4800 4700
Silver (US$/troy oz.) 79.53 116.70 32.01 31.86 33.65 39.51 55.21 83.71 80.00 77.00 75.00 73.00 72.00 70.00 70.00
Copper (cents/lb) 598 613 414 423 432 444 505 582 590 610 590 575 580 585 590
Nickel (US$/lb) 8.23 8.51 6.47 7.06 6.88 6.81 6.76 7.87 8.10 7.90 7.70 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
Aluminum (Cents/lb) 164 164 107 119 111 119 128 145 165 160 160 155 150 150 150
Wheat ($US/bu) 7.61 8.66 6.42 5.65 5.34 4.88 5.13 5.50 5.90 5.80 6.00 6.10 6.20 6.30 6.40


U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2026. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators 2025 2026 2027 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 25F 26F 27F 25F 26F 27F
 Real GDP -0.6 3.8 4.4 0.7 2.4 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.1
 Consumer Expenditure 0.6 2.5 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
Durable Goods             -3.4 2.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 6.9 4.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.3 3.3 0.1 3.5 2.9
 Business Investment 9.5 7.3 3.2 2.3 4.0 4.2 5.7 5.2 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.5 4.7 3.4
Non-Res. Structures -3.1 -7.5 -5.0 -7.1 -3.0 -2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -5.3 -3.4 0.8 -5.7 -0.8 1.0
Equipment & IPP* 13.4 11.8 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.7 6.9 6.2 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.7 7.0 6.2 4.9 8.9 6.2 4.0
 Residential Investment -1.0 -5.1 -7.1 -0.6 -1.1 2.2 5.8 5.7 5.9 4.5 3.6 3.3 -2.1 -0.2 4.9 -3.5 3.1 4.3
 Govt. Expenditure -1.0 -0.1 2.2 -5.8 5.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 -1.2 2.0 0.7
 Final Domestic Demand 1.4 2.4 2.8 0.6 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.0
 Exports                   0.2 -1.8 9.6 -3.3 4.3 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.6 2.5 3.0 1.0 3.3 3.0
 Imports                   38.0 -29.3 -4.4 -1.1 11.0 5.1 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.2 2.8 -2.0 5.6 2.5
 Change in Private Inventories 172.0 -18.3 -23.9 -7.5 16.1 23.0 33.0 42.9 42.9 42.9 42.9 42.9 30.6 28.7 42.9 -- -- --
 Final Sales -3.2 7.5 4.5 0.4 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 Including IVA&CCA -4.7 0.7 19.1 12.5 7.0 6.5 3.8 4.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 1.4 6.4 8.3 1.6 6.5 5.3 0.2
% of GDP  13.1 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.1 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.6 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.3 3.3 2.4 2.3
 Nominal GDP  2.9 6.0 8.3 4.5 5.6 4.5 4.6 5.1 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.4 4.6 5.4 4.9 4.4
 Labor Force 5.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 -2.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.6 -0.1 0.2 1.8 -0.3 0.2
 Non-Farm Employment  0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4
 Change in Non-Farm Empl. ('000s)  205 169 34 -91 80 86 160 223 240 180 120 100 745 271 729 317 549 640
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  5.8 4.0 3.8 3.1 8.3 5.7 5.3 6.0 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.4 5.5 5.6 4.2 6.3 5.5
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  5.2 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.1 4.7 4.3 5.7 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.7 3.3 1.9 2.7 3.2 1.9
 Core CPI (y/y) 3.1 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.40 1.35 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.35 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.48 1.50 1.52 1.36 1.37 1.49 -- -- --
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.8 3.4 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.0 1.7 2.8 2.4 1.5


Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2026. * Share of 2024 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Source: National Statistics Agencies, TD Economics.
  2025 2026F 2027F
Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 (28.7%)* 1.6 1.7 1.8
  U.S. 2.1 2.4 2.2
  Japan 1.1 0.5 0.8
  Euro Area 1.5 0.9 1.3
  Germany 0.4 0.8 1.7
  France 0.9 1.0 1.4
  Italy 0.7 0.6 0.9
  United Kingdom 1.3 0.9 1.3
  Canada 1.7 1.1 1.7
Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 2.3 2.2 2.0
  U.S. 2.7 3.3 1.9
  Japan 3.2 2.2 1.7
  Euro Area 2.1 2.8 2.1
  Germany 2.3 2.1 1.9
  France 0.9 1.6 1.5
  Italy 1.6 2.2 1.5
  United Kingdom 3.4 2.6 1.9
  Canada 2.1 2.5 2.0
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages)
  U.S. 4.3 4.3 4.0
  Japan 2.5 2.5 2.3
  Euro Area 6.3 6.3 6.2
  Germany 6.3 6.1 5.5
  France 7.7 7.6 7.3
  Italy 6.1 6.0 6.3
  United Kingdom 4.9 5.2 4.9
  Canada 6.8 6.6 6.3


Global Economic Outlook

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2026. * Share of 2024 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: International Monetary Fund, TD Economics.
2024 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2025 2026F 2027F
World 100.0 3.5 3.1 3.1
North America 17.9 2.0 2.3 2.2
   United States 14.8 2.1 2.4 2.2
   Canada 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.7
   Mexico 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.9
European Union (EU-27) 14.2 1.6 1.2 1.5
   Euro Area (EU-20) 12.2 1.5 0.9 1.3
        Germany 3.0 0.4 0.8 1.7
        France  2.2 0.9 1.0 1.4
        Italy 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.9
   Other EU Members 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.3
Asia 46.9 4.8 4.2 4.1
   Japan 3.3 1.1 0.5 0.8
   Asian NIC's 3.5 3.7 2.6 2.0
        Hong Kong 0.3 3.5 2.4 2.2
        Korea 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.1
        Singapore  0.5 5.0 3.6 2.1
        Taiwan 0.9 8.7 3.7 2.0
   Russia 3.5 0.8 0.9 1.0
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.4
   Emerging Asia 35.7 5.7 5.0 5.0
        ASEAN-5 5.2 5.3 4.7 4.9
        China 19.3 5.0 4.5 4.4
        India** 8.2 7.7 6.5 6.3
Central/South America 5.3 2.9 1.7 2.3
   Brazil 2.4 2.6 1.2 2.1
Other Emerging Markets 12.8 3.6 3.3 3.0
Other Advanced 3.2 1.2 1.4 2.2
   United Kingdom 2.2 1.3 0.9 1.3

Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2026. * Intellectual property products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
25 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 25 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F
 Real GDP 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Consumer Expenditure 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
Durable Goods             3.6 2.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.1 3.5 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
 Business Investment 4.1 4.1 4.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 5.5 4.7 3.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Non-Res. Structures -5.3 -3.4 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 -5.7 -0.8 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Equipment & IPP* 7.0 6.2 4.9 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 8.9 6.2 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
 Residential Investment -2.1 -0.2 4.9 3.1 2.8 2.2 1.7 -3.5 3.1 4.3 2.8 2.8 1.8 1.6
 Govt. Expenditure 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -1.2 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
 Final Domestic Demand 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9
 Exports                   1.6 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Imports                   2.7 1.2 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 -2.0 5.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories 30.6 28.7 42.9 42.9 42.9 42.9 42.9 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits                            
 Including IVA&CCA 6.4 8.3 1.6 0.6 1.7 2.7 4.1 6.5 5.3 0.2 0.7 2.2 3.2 4.7
% of GDP  13.2 13.5 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.2 12.1 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.8 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
 Nominal GDP  5.0 5.4 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
 Labor Force 1.6 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
 Employment  0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  745 271 729 429 400 400 400 317 549 640 399 400 400 400
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  4.4 5.5 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.2 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  4.7 4.3 5.7 6.7 7.3 7.7 8.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.7 3.3 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 2.8 3.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.3 3.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.8 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5

Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2026. * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: Avg. of CPI-trim and CPI-median.
Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.
            Economic Indicator                 Annual Average 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter
25 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 25 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F
  Real GDP 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Consumer Expenditure 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Durable Goods             1.6 0.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 -1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Business Investment -0.2 0.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 -1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Non-Res. Structures 1.6 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Equipment & IPP* -1.9 0.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 -2.9 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Residential Investment 1.0 -1.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 -2.3 -1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
Govt. Expenditure 3.0 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.9 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8
    Final Domestic Demand 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
Exports                   -1.7 0.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 -3.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5
Imports                   -0.4 0.9 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 -1.6 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
Change in Non-Farm                            
Inventories (2012 $Bn) -0.7 -6.6 3.2 7.8 11.0 11.7 12.1 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
   Final Sales 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
International Current                            
Account Balance ($Bn)  -30.4 -13.0 -47.5 -56.1 -61.4 -65.0 -67.8 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
% of GDP  -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Pre-Tax Corp. Profits 5.7 6.3 -3.3 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.4 1.3 0.2 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.2
% of GDP  14.1 14.4 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.5 3.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
  Nominal GDP  4.3 4.1 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7
  Labour Force 1.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.3 -0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
  Employment  1.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.3 -0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6
  Change in Empl. ('000s)  296 42 99 182 155 134 131 261 -38 135 197 137 133 130
  Unemployment Rate (%)  6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Personal Disp. Income  4.7 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6
  Pers. Savings Rate (%)  4.9 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.1 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  CPIX (y/y) ** 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  BoC Inflation (y/y) *** 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Housing Starts ('000s) 258.2 236.4 222.2 226.1 233.7 233.5 233.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Home Prices (y/y) -1.4 -0.3 2.7 4.6 3.8 3.3 3.3 -1.8 -1.1 4.3 4.4 3.4 3.3 3.2
  Real GDP / Worker (y/y) 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 -0.5 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1

 

Long-Term Interest Rates

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, March 2026. *Upper bound of target range.
Note: Annual averages are the average of the four quarterly end-of-period forecasts.
Source: Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, TD Economics.
Interest Rates Annual Average End of Period
25 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 25 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F
U.S. FIXED INCOME                            
   Fed Funds Target Rate (%)* 4.37 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.75 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 4.07 3.46 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.57 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.81 3.48 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.47 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.93 3.75 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.73 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
   10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.29 4.18 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.18 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.10
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) 0.48 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.71 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75
CANADIAN FIXED INCOME                            
   Overnight Target Rate (%) 2.72 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 2.58 2.24 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.15 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 2.53 2.65 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.58 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 2.84 2.95 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.96 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90
  10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.24 3.38 3.25 3.25 3.16 3.15 3.15 3.42 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.15 3.15 3.15
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) 0.71 0.73 0.65 0.65 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.84 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.55 0.55 0.55

 

 

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