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Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Rates

F: Forecast by TD Economics, April 2023; Forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg.
Interest & Exchange Rates Spot Rate 2022 2023 2024
Apr-12 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Interest Rates                            
Fed Funds Target Rate  5.00 0.50 1.75 3.25 4.50 5.00 5.25 5.25 5.25 4.75 4.25 3.75 3.25
3-mth T-Bill Rate  4.86 0.51 1.66 3.22 4.30 4.68 5.15 5.15 4.90 4.40 3.90 3.40 2.90
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.98 2.28 2.92 4.22 4.41 4.06 4.10 3.80 3.45 3.15 2.90 2.70 2.60
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.49 2.42 3.01 4.06 3.99 3.60 3.60 3.45 3.35 3.20 3.10 3.05 2.95
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.43 2.32 2.98 3.83 3.88 3.48 3.50 3.45 3.35 3.30 3.25 3.15 3.05
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.66 2.44 3.14 3.79 3.97 3.67 3.70 3.65 3.60 3.55 3.50 3.45 3.35
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread -0.55 0.04 0.06 -0.39 -0.53 -0.58 -0.60 -0.35 -0.10 0.15 0.35 0.45 0.45
Exchange rate to U.S. dollar                          
 Chinese Yuan CNY per USD 6.88 6.34 6.70 7.11 6.90 6.87 6.90 6.95 6.90 6.85 6.80 6.80 6.80
 Japanese yen JPY per USD 133 121 136 145 132 133 133 132 130 127 125 124 123
 Euro USD per EUR 1.10 1.11 1.05 0.98 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.20
 U.K. pound USD per GBP 1.25 1.32 1.22 1.11 1.21 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30
 Canadian dollar CAD per USD 1.34 1.25 1.29 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.29
 Australian dollar USD per AUD 0.67 0.75 0.69 0.64 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70
 NZ dollar USD per NZD 0.63 0.70 0.63 0.56 0.63 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.66
Exchange rate to Euro                          
 U.S. dollar USD per EUR 1.10 1.11 1.05 0.98 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.20
 Japanese yen JPY per EUR 147 135 142 142 141 144 145 147 147 147 147 149 148
 U.K. pound GBP per EUR 0.88 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92
 Canadian dollar CAD per EUR 1.48 1.39 1.35 1.35 1.45 1.47 1.47 1.51 1.53 1.54 1.56 1.57 1.55
 Australian dollar AUD per EUR 1.64 1.48 1.52 1.52 1.57 1.62 1.65 1.67 1.68 1.70 1.72 1.73 1.71
 NZ dollar NZD per EUR 1.76 1.60 1.68 1.73 1.69 1.73 1.77 1.78 1.80 1.82 1.84 1.85 1.83
Exchange rate to Japanese yen                          
 U.S. dollar  JPY per USD 133 121 136 145 132 133 133 132 130 127 125 124 123
 Euro  JPY per EUR 147 135 142 142 141 144 145 147 147 147 147 149 148
 U.K. pound  JPY per GBP 167 160 165 161 159 164 166 167 166 164 163 161 160
 Canadian dollar  JPY per CAD 99.4 97.3 105.4 105.2 97.4 98.2 98.5 97.1 96.6 95.3 94.7 94.9 95.1
 Australian dollar  JPY per AUD 89.8 91.1 93.7 93.2 89.7 89.0 87.8 88.0 87.5 86.4 85.9 86.0 86.2
 NZ dollar  JPY per NZD 83.3 84.4 84.7 81.6 83.6 83.2 82.1 82.3 81.9 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.6

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, April 2023; Forecast are period averages; E: Estimate.
Source: Bloomberg, USDA (Haver).
Commodity  Price 52-Week 52-Week 2022 2023 2024
Apr-12 High Low Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 83 122 67 94 109 93 83 76 83 89 90 90 89 88 85
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 2.21 9.84 1.94 4.66 7.48 7.99 5.55 2.65 2.25 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 2029 2029 1622 1876 1873 1728 1731 1889 1950 2000 2100 2100 2050 1950 1900
Silver (US$/troy oz.) 25.62 25.87 17.81 24.05 22.66 19.25 21.30 22.56 24.00 24.25 24.50 25.00 24.50 24.00 24.00
Copper (cents/lb) 405 468 325 453 433 352 363 405 406 420 430 420 410 410 400
Nickel (US$/lb) 10.70 15.38 8.79 12.73 13.20 10.00 11.53 11.81 11.50 11.00 10.90 10.80 10.70 10.68 10.65
Aluminum (Cents/lb) 105 150 96 148 131 107 105 109 108 109 111 113 115 120 120
Wheat ($US/bu) 10.47 15.64 9.55 8.89 10.75 8.13 7.54 7.32 7.00 7.20 7.50 7.50 7.40 7.30 7.20
 

Global Stock Markets

*Weighted equity index including both developing and emerging markets.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes Price 30-Day YTD 52-Week 52-Week
Apr-12 % Chg. % Chg.  High Low
S&P 500 4,092 6.1 6.6 4,462 3,577
DAX 15,698 4.9 12.7 15,704 11,976
FTSE 100 7,828 3.7 5.1 8,014 6,826
Nikkei 28,157 1.2 7.9 29,223 25,717
MSCI AC World Index* 648 5.5 7.0 696 550
   

U.S. Economic Outlook.

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2023.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators          2022 2023 2024 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 22 23F 24F 22 23F 24F
 Real GDP -1.6 -0.6 3.2 2.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.4
 Consumer Expenditure 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.4 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 2.8 1.5 0.7 1.8 1.0 1.1
Durable Goods             7.7 -2.8 -0.8 -1.9 3.2 -2.6 -4.6 -2.3 -1.5 0.1 0.6 1.1 -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 0.5 -1.6 0.1
 Business Investment 7.9 0.1 6.2 3.3 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -0.2 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.8 2.1 0.9 4.3 0.6 2.0
Non-Res. Structures -4.4 -12.7 -3.6 8.5 4.0 0.0 -4.0 -2.3 -1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 -6.9 0.5 -0.9 -3.3 -0.6 0.7
Equipment & IPP* 11.1 3.4 8.7 2.0 2.9 1.3 -0.9 0.3 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 6.6 2.5 1.4 6.2 0.9 2.3
 Residential Investment -3.1 -17.8 -27.1 -25.9 -11.9 -16.5 -5.2 3.2 10.3 11.4 11.5 12.3 -10.7 -16.5 5.6 -19.0 -7.9 11.4
 Govt. Expenditure -2.3 -1.6 3.7 3.6 2.0 0.7 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 -0.6 2.0 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.9
 Final Domestic Demand 1.3 0.2 1.5 0.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.5
 Exports                   -4.6 13.8 14.6 -1.6 7.0 2.0 0.8 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.0 7.2 4.5 1.9 5.2 2.7 2.6
 Imports                   18.4 2.3 -7.3 -4.2 4.0 -2.7 -1.3 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.3 8.2 -1.2 1.4 1.8 0.2 2.6
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 214.5 110.2 38.7 136.3 80.4 61.1 68.3 75.2 66.5 58.0 53.7 53.7 124.9 71.3 58.0 -- -- --
 Final Sales -1.8 1.4 4.5 1.2 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.5
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -1130 -955 -868 -880 -868 -879 -914 -952 -972 -979 -988 -995 -958 -903 -984 -- -- --
% of GDP  -4.6 -3.8 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.8 -3.4 -3.5 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 including IVA&CCA 0.5 19.7 -0.2 20.2 -18.5 1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.1 2.7 4.5 4.0 8.4 -0.6 1.0 9.6 -5.2 2.8
% of GDP  11.6 11.9 11.7 12.0 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.8 11.1 10.9 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 6.9 7.6 7.1 6.4 5.3 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 7.0 4.0 2.5 6.4 3.4 2.1
 Nominal GDP  6.6 8.5 7.7 6.7 5.0 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 9.2 5.4 3.5 7.4 4.1 3.5
 Labor Force 4.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 3.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.4 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.6
 Employment  4.6 3.2 3.4 2.5 2.5 0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 4.3 1.8 -0.6 3.4 0.5 -0.5
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  1689 1197 1287 955 969 270 -176 -277 -360 -268 -145 -42 6346 2673 -872 5128 786 -815
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 3.6 3.6 4.5 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  -3.9 4.8 7.7 8.6 10.5 5.2 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 -0.1 7.1 3.7 4.2 5.6 3.5
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  4.3 3.2 3.2 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 3.7 4.4 4.8 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 8.0 8.6 8.3 7.1 5.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.1 1.8 8.0 4.7 2.5 7.1 4.0 1.8
 Core CPI (y/y) 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.4 4.8 4.3 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 6.1 5.0 2.8 6.0 4.3 2.3
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.1 5.0 4.5 2.5 4.8 4.0 2.1
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.72 1.65 1.45 1.41 1.29 1.21 1.20 1.27 1.34 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.56 1.24 1.38 -- -- --
 Real Output per hour** (y/y) -1.0 -2.5 -1.5 -1.8 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 -1.7 -0.3 1.6 -1.8 -0.1 1.9
 

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

*Share of world GDP on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis.
Forecast as at March 2023. **Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: IMF, TD Economics.
    2021 2022 2023F 2024F
Real GDP (annual per cent change)
G7 (30.1%)* 5.3 2.3 0.8 0.9
  U.S. 5.9 2.1 1.3 1.0
  Japan 2.2 1.0 1.1 1.2
  Euro Area 5.3 3.5 0.6 0.5
  Germany 2.6 1.9 -0.1 0.7
  France 6.8 2.6 0.4 0.6
  Italy 7.0 3.8 0.4 0.4
  United Kingdom 7.6 4.0 -0.5 0.8
  Canada 5.0 3.4 0.8 0.4
Consumer Price Index (annual per cent change)
G7 3.3 7.3 4.7 2.1
  U.S. 4.7 8.0 4.7 2.5
  Japan -0.2 2.5 2.1 1.2
  Euro Area 2.6 8.4 5.6 2.3
  Germany 3.2 8.7 6.1 2.4
  France 2.1 5.9 5.2 2.3
  Italy 1.9 8.7 6.7 2.2
  United Kingdom 2.6 9.1 6.1 2.2
  Canada 3.4 6.8 3.7 2.3
Unemployment Rate (per cent annual averages)
  U.S. 5.4 3.6 3.6 4.5
  Japan 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4
  Euro Area 7.7 6.7 7.1 7.7
  Germany 5.7 5.3 5.7 5.9
  France 7.8 7.3 7.5 7.9
  Italy 9.5 8.1 8.5 9.0
  United Kingdom 4.5 3.7 4.4 4.7
  Canada 7.5 5.3 5.5 6.4

Global Economic Outlook.

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

*Share of 2019 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Forecast as at March 2023.
Source: National statistics agencies, TD Economics.
2019 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2022 2023 2024
World 100.0 3.3 2.8 2.7
North America 19.2 2.3 1.3 1.0
   United States 15.8 2.1 1.3 1.0
   Canada 1.4 3.4 0.8 0.4
   Mexico 1.9 3.1 1.3 1.6
European Union (EU-28) 15.4 3.6 0.7 0.8
   Euro Area (EU-19) 12.5 3.5 0.6 0.5
        Germany 3.5 1.9 -0.1 0.7
        France  2.4 2.6 0.4 0.6
        Italy 2.0 3.8 0.4 0.4
   United Kingdom 2.4 4.0 -0.5 0.8
   EU accession members 2.9 4.3 0.3 2.0
Asia 43.2 3.5 4.4 4.3
   Japan 4.1 1.0 1.1 1.2
   Asian NIC's 3.5 2.0 2.2 2.9
        Hong Kong 0.3 -3.5 2.8 2.9
        Korea 1.7 2.6 1.9 3.0
        Singapore  0.4 3.6 2.1 2.7
        Taiwan 0.9 2.5 2.6 2.9
   Russia 3.1 -2.2 -0.6 1.8
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 3.5 2.0 2.0
Emerging Asia 31.4 4.6 5.7 5.2
        ASEAN-5 5.7 5.9 5.0 5.1
        China 17.3 3.0 5.7 4.6
        India** 7.1 7.3 6.1 6.8
Central/South America 5.6 4.2 1.1 2.2
   Brazil 2.4 3.0 1.0 2.0
Other Emerging Markets 13.0 3.2 3.4 3.1
Other Advanced 1.1 3.6 1.9 2.1

Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

*Intellectual property products. F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2023.
**Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
22 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 22 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F
 Real GDP 2.1 1.3 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8
 Consumer Expenditure 2.8 1.5 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9
Durable Goods             -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 1.8 3.3 3.2 3.0 0.5 -1.6 0.1 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.1
 Business Investment 3.8 2.1 0.9 3.1 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.3 0.6 2.0 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.3
Non-Res. Structures -6.9 0.5 -0.9 3.2 3.9 3.1 3.0 -3.3 -0.6 0.7 4.0 3.6 3.0 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 6.6 2.5 1.4 3.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 6.2 0.9 2.3 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.3
 Residential Investment -10.7 -16.5 5.6 9.8 3.6 1.5 1.1 -19.0 -7.9 11.4 7.5 2.1 1.3 1.1
 Govt. Expenditure -0.6 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2
 Final Domestic Demand 1.7 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7
 Exports                   7.2 4.5 1.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 5.2 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0
 Imports                   8.2 -1.2 1.4 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.8 0.2 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories 124.9 71.3 58.0 53.8 53.8 53.8 53.7 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8
 International Current                            
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -958 -903 -984 -992 -996 -1001 -985 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
% of GDP  -3.8 -3.4 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                            
 including IVA&CCA 8.4 -0.6 1.0 2.8 4.5 6.0 6.2 9.6 -5.2 2.8 3.0 4.9 6.3 6.1
% of GDP  11.8 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 7.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 6.4 3.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3
 Nominal GDP  9.2 5.4 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 7.4 4.1 3.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
 Labor Force 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
 Employment  4.3 1.8 -0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 3.4 0.5 -0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  6,346 2,673 -872 639 1,027 434 391 5,128 786 -815 1,292 752 348 444
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.6 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  -0.1 7.1 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.6 3.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.7 4.4 4.8 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.4 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 8.0 4.7 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.2 7.1 4.0 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.1
 Core CPI (y/y) 6.1 5.0 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 6.0 4.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 5.0 4.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.8 4.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.56 1.24 1.38 1.48 1.50 1.50 1.50 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Real Output per hour** (y/y) -1.7 -0.3 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.7 -1.8 -0.1 1.9 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.7

Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2022.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: avg. of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common.
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator                 Annual Average 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter
22 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 22 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F
  Real GDP 3.4 0.8 0.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
Consumer Expenditure 4.8 1.7 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 3.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7
Durable Goods             -2.0 0.4 -1.3 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 -0.2 -1.3 -0.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.7
Business Investment 6.4 1.3 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 4.1 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7
Non-Res. Structures 8.0 4.0