Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Rates
F: Forecast by TD Economics, April 2023; Forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg.
Interest & Exchange Rates |
Spot Rate |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Apr-12 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Interest Rates |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fed Funds Target Rate |
5.00 |
0.50 |
1.75 |
3.25 |
4.50 |
5.00 |
5.25 |
5.25 |
5.25 |
4.75 |
4.25 |
3.75 |
3.25 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate |
4.86 |
0.51 |
1.66 |
3.22 |
4.30 |
4.68 |
5.15 |
5.15 |
4.90 |
4.40 |
3.90 |
3.40 |
2.90 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
3.98 |
2.28 |
2.92 |
4.22 |
4.41 |
4.06 |
4.10 |
3.80 |
3.45 |
3.15 |
2.90 |
2.70 |
2.60 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
3.49 |
2.42 |
3.01 |
4.06 |
3.99 |
3.60 |
3.60 |
3.45 |
3.35 |
3.20 |
3.10 |
3.05 |
2.95 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
3.43 |
2.32 |
2.98 |
3.83 |
3.88 |
3.48 |
3.50 |
3.45 |
3.35 |
3.30 |
3.25 |
3.15 |
3.05 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
3.66 |
2.44 |
3.14 |
3.79 |
3.97 |
3.67 |
3.70 |
3.65 |
3.60 |
3.55 |
3.50 |
3.45 |
3.35 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread |
-0.55 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
-0.39 |
-0.53 |
-0.58 |
-0.60 |
-0.35 |
-0.10 |
0.15 |
0.35 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
Exchange rate to U.S. dollar |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chinese Yuan |
CNY per USD |
6.88 |
6.34 |
6.70 |
7.11 |
6.90 |
6.87 |
6.90 |
6.95 |
6.90 |
6.85 |
6.80 |
6.80 |
6.80 |
Japanese yen |
JPY per USD |
133 |
121 |
136 |
145 |
132 |
133 |
133 |
132 |
130 |
127 |
125 |
124 |
123 |
Euro |
USD per EUR |
1.10 |
1.11 |
1.05 |
0.98 |
1.07 |
1.09 |
1.09 |
1.11 |
1.13 |
1.16 |
1.18 |
1.20 |
1.20 |
U.K. pound |
USD per GBP |
1.25 |
1.32 |
1.22 |
1.11 |
1.21 |
1.24 |
1.25 |
1.26 |
1.28 |
1.29 |
1.30 |
1.30 |
1.30 |
Canadian dollar |
CAD per USD |
1.34 |
1.25 |
1.29 |
1.38 |
1.35 |
1.35 |
1.35 |
1.36 |
1.35 |
1.33 |
1.32 |
1.31 |
1.29 |
Australian dollar |
USD per AUD |
0.67 |
0.75 |
0.69 |
0.64 |
0.68 |
0.67 |
0.66 |
0.67 |
0.67 |
0.68 |
0.69 |
0.69 |
0.70 |
NZ dollar |
USD per NZD |
0.63 |
0.70 |
0.63 |
0.56 |
0.63 |
0.63 |
0.62 |
0.62 |
0.63 |
0.64 |
0.64 |
0.65 |
0.66 |
Exchange rate to Euro |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. dollar |
USD per EUR |
1.10 |
1.11 |
1.05 |
0.98 |
1.07 |
1.09 |
1.09 |
1.11 |
1.13 |
1.16 |
1.18 |
1.20 |
1.20 |
Japanese yen |
JPY per EUR |
147 |
135 |
142 |
142 |
141 |
144 |
145 |
147 |
147 |
147 |
147 |
149 |
148 |
U.K. pound |
GBP per EUR |
0.88 |
0.84 |
0.86 |
0.88 |
0.89 |
0.88 |
0.87 |
0.88 |
0.89 |
0.90 |
0.91 |
0.92 |
0.92 |
Canadian dollar |
CAD per EUR |
1.48 |
1.39 |
1.35 |
1.35 |
1.45 |
1.47 |
1.47 |
1.51 |
1.53 |
1.54 |
1.56 |
1.57 |
1.55 |
Australian dollar |
AUD per EUR |
1.64 |
1.48 |
1.52 |
1.52 |
1.57 |
1.62 |
1.65 |
1.67 |
1.68 |
1.70 |
1.72 |
1.73 |
1.71 |
NZ dollar |
NZD per EUR |
1.76 |
1.60 |
1.68 |
1.73 |
1.69 |
1.73 |
1.77 |
1.78 |
1.80 |
1.82 |
1.84 |
1.85 |
1.83 |
Exchange rate to Japanese yen |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. dollar |
JPY per USD |
133 |
121 |
136 |
145 |
132 |
133 |
133 |
132 |
130 |
127 |
125 |
124 |
123 |
Euro |
JPY per EUR |
147 |
135 |
142 |
142 |
141 |
144 |
145 |
147 |
147 |
147 |
147 |
149 |
148 |
U.K. pound |
JPY per GBP |
167 |
160 |
165 |
161 |
159 |
164 |
166 |
167 |
166 |
164 |
163 |
161 |
160 |
Canadian dollar |
JPY per CAD |
99.4 |
97.3 |
105.4 |
105.2 |
97.4 |
98.2 |
98.5 |
97.1 |
96.6 |
95.3 |
94.7 |
94.9 |
95.1 |
Australian dollar |
JPY per AUD |
89.8 |
91.1 |
93.7 |
93.2 |
89.7 |
89.0 |
87.8 |
88.0 |
87.5 |
86.4 |
85.9 |
86.0 |
86.2 |
NZ dollar |
JPY per NZD |
83.3 |
84.4 |
84.7 |
81.6 |
83.6 |
83.2 |
82.1 |
82.3 |
81.9 |
80.8 |
80.3 |
80.5 |
80.6 |
Commodity Price Outlook
F: Forecast by TD Economics, April 2023; Forecast are period averages; E: Estimate.
Source: Bloomberg, USDA (Haver).
Commodity |
Price |
52-Week |
52-Week |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Apr-12 |
High |
Low |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) |
83 |
122 |
67 |
94 |
109 |
93 |
83 |
76 |
83 |
89 |
90 |
90 |
89 |
88 |
85 |
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) |
2.21 |
9.84 |
1.94 |
4.66 |
7.48 |
7.99 |
5.55 |
2.65 |
2.25 |
2.75 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
Gold ($US/troy oz.) |
2029 |
2029 |
1622 |
1876 |
1873 |
1728 |
1731 |
1889 |
1950 |
2000 |
2100 |
2100 |
2050 |
1950 |
1900 |
Silver (US$/troy oz.) |
25.62 |
25.87 |
17.81 |
24.05 |
22.66 |
19.25 |
21.30 |
22.56 |
24.00 |
24.25 |
24.50 |
25.00 |
24.50 |
24.00 |
24.00 |
Copper (cents/lb) |
405 |
468 |
325 |
453 |
433 |
352 |
363 |
405 |
406 |
420 |
430 |
420 |
410 |
410 |
400 |
Nickel (US$/lb) |
10.70 |
15.38 |
8.79 |
12.73 |
13.20 |
10.00 |
11.53 |
11.81 |
11.50 |
11.00 |
10.90 |
10.80 |
10.70 |
10.68 |
10.65 |
Aluminum (Cents/lb) |
105 |
150 |
96 |
148 |
131 |
107 |
105 |
109 |
108 |
109 |
111 |
113 |
115 |
120 |
120 |
Wheat ($US/bu) |
10.47 |
15.64 |
9.55 |
8.89 |
10.75 |
8.13 |
7.54 |
7.32 |
7.00 |
7.20 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
7.40 |
7.30 |
7.20 |
Global Stock Markets
*Weighted equity index including both developing and emerging markets.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes |
Price |
30-Day |
YTD |
52-Week |
52-Week |
Apr-12 |
% Chg. |
% Chg. |
High |
Low |
S&P 500 |
4,092 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
4,462 |
3,577 |
DAX |
15,698 |
4.9 |
12.7 |
15,704 |
11,976 |
FTSE 100 |
7,828 |
3.7 |
5.1 |
8,014 |
6,826 |
Nikkei |
28,157 |
1.2 |
7.9 |
29,223 |
25,717 |
MSCI AC World Index* |
648 |
5.5 |
7.0 |
696 |
550 |
U.S. Economic Outlook.
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2023.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
Real GDP |
-1.6 |
-0.6 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
Consumer Expenditure |
1.3 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
2.8 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
Durable Goods |
7.7 |
-2.8 |
-0.8 |
-1.9 |
3.2 |
-2.6 |
-4.6 |
-2.3 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
-0.5 |
-1.1 |
-1.4 |
0.5 |
-1.6 |
0.1 |
Business Investment |
7.9 |
0.1 |
6.2 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
1.1 |
-1.5 |
-0.2 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.8 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
4.3 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
Non-Res. Structures |
-4.4 |
-12.7 |
-3.6 |
8.5 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
-4.0 |
-2.3 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
-6.9 |
0.5 |
-0.9 |
-3.3 |
-0.6 |
0.7 |
Equipment & IPP* |
11.1 |
3.4 |
8.7 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
1.3 |
-0.9 |
0.3 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
6.6 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
6.2 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
Residential Investment |
-3.1 |
-17.8 |
-27.1 |
-25.9 |
-11.9 |
-16.5 |
-5.2 |
3.2 |
10.3 |
11.4 |
11.5 |
12.3 |
-10.7 |
-16.5 |
5.6 |
-19.0 |
-7.9 |
11.4 |
Govt. Expenditure |
-2.3 |
-1.6 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
-0.6 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
Final Domestic Demand |
1.3 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
Exports |
-4.6 |
13.8 |
14.6 |
-1.6 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
7.2 |
4.5 |
1.9 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
Imports |
18.4 |
2.3 |
-7.3 |
-4.2 |
4.0 |
-2.7 |
-1.3 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
8.2 |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
Change in Private |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inventories |
214.5 |
110.2 |
38.7 |
136.3 |
80.4 |
61.1 |
68.3 |
75.2 |
66.5 |
58.0 |
53.7 |
53.7 |
124.9 |
71.3 |
58.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
-1.8 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
International Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Account Balance ($Bn) |
-1130 |
-955 |
-868 |
-880 |
-868 |
-879 |
-914 |
-952 |
-972 |
-979 |
-988 |
-995 |
-958 |
-903 |
-984 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-4.6 |
-3.8 |
-3.4 |
-3.4 |
-3.3 |
-3.3 |
-3.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.8 |
-3.4 |
-3.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
including IVA&CCA |
0.5 |
19.7 |
-0.2 |
20.2 |
-18.5 |
1.6 |
-1.4 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
8.4 |
-0.6 |
1.0 |
9.6 |
-5.2 |
2.8 |
% of GDP |
11.6 |
11.9 |
11.7 |
12.0 |
11.3 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
11.8 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
6.9 |
7.6 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
5.3 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
7.0 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
Nominal GDP |
6.6 |
8.5 |
7.7 |
6.7 |
5.0 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
9.2 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
7.4 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
Labor Force |
4.5 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
3.7 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
Employment |
4.6 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
4.3 |
1.8 |
-0.6 |
3.4 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
1689 |
1197 |
1287 |
955 |
969 |
270 |
-176 |
-277 |
-360 |
-268 |
-145 |
-42 |
6346 |
2673 |
-872 |
5128 |
786 |
-815 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
-3.9 |
4.8 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
10.5 |
5.2 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
-0.1 |
7.1 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
3.5 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
4.3 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
8.0 |
8.6 |
8.3 |
7.1 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
8.0 |
4.7 |
2.5 |
7.1 |
4.0 |
1.8 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
6.3 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
2.8 |
6.0 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
2.1 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.72 |
1.65 |
1.45 |
1.41 |
1.29 |
1.21 |
1.20 |
1.27 |
1.34 |
1.37 |
1.40 |
1.43 |
1.56 |
1.24 |
1.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
-1.0 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
-1.8 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
-1.7 |
-0.3 |
1.6 |
-1.8 |
-0.1 |
1.9 |
Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe
*Share of world GDP on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis.
Forecast as at March 2023. **Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: IMF, TD Economics.
|
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023F |
2024F |
Real GDP (annual per cent change) |
G7 (30.1%)* |
5.3 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
|
U.S. |
5.9 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
|
Japan |
2.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
|
Euro Area |
5.3 |
3.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|
Germany |
2.6 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
0.7 |
|
France |
6.8 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
|
Italy |
7.0 |
3.8 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
United Kingdom |
7.6 |
4.0 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
|
Canada |
5.0 |
3.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
Consumer Price Index (annual per cent change) |
G7 |
3.3 |
7.3 |
4.7 |
2.1 |
|
U.S. |
4.7 |
8.0 |
4.7 |
2.5 |
|
Japan |
-0.2 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
|
Euro Area |
2.6 |
8.4 |
5.6 |
2.3 |
|
Germany |
3.2 |
8.7 |
6.1 |
2.4 |
|
France |
2.1 |
5.9 |
5.2 |
2.3 |
|
Italy |
1.9 |
8.7 |
6.7 |
2.2 |
|
United Kingdom |
2.6 |
9.1 |
6.1 |
2.2 |
|
Canada |
3.4 |
6.8 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
Unemployment Rate (per cent annual averages) |
|
U.S. |
5.4 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
|
Japan |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
|
Euro Area |
7.7 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
|
Germany |
5.7 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
|
France |
7.8 |
7.3 |
7.5 |
7.9 |
|
Italy |
9.5 |
8.1 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
|
United Kingdom |
4.5 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
|
Canada |
7.5 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
Global Economic Outlook.
[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
*Share of 2019 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Forecast as at March 2023.
Source: National statistics agencies, TD Economics.
2019 Share* |
Forecast |
Real GDP |
(%) |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
World |
100.0 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
North America |
19.2 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
United States |
15.8 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
Canada |
1.4 |
3.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
Mexico |
1.9 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
European Union (EU-28) |
15.4 |
3.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
Euro Area (EU-19) |
12.5 |
3.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
Germany |
3.5 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
0.7 |
France |
2.4 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
Italy |
2.0 |
3.8 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
United Kingdom |
2.4 |
4.0 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
EU accession members |
2.9 |
4.3 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
Asia |
43.2 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
Japan |
4.1 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
Asian NIC's |
3.5 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
Hong Kong |
0.3 |
-3.5 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
Korea |
1.7 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
Singapore |
0.4 |
3.6 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
Taiwan |
0.9 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
Russia |
3.1 |
-2.2 |
-0.6 |
1.8 |
Australia & New Zealand |
1.2 |
3.5 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Emerging Asia |
31.4 |
4.6 |
5.7 |
5.2 |
ASEAN-5 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
China |
17.3 |
3.0 |
5.7 |
4.6 |
India** |
7.1 |
7.3 |
6.1 |
6.8 |
Central/South America |
5.6 |
4.2 |
1.1 |
2.2 |
Brazil |
2.4 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
Other Emerging Markets |
13.0 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
Other Advanced |
1.1 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
*Intellectual property products. F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2023.
**Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator |
Annual Average |
Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter |
22 |
23F |
24F |
25F |
26F |
27F |
28F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
25F |
26F |
27F |
28F |
Real GDP |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
Consumer Expenditure |
2.8 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
Durable Goods |
-0.5 |
-1.1 |
-1.4 |
1.8 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
0.5 |
-1.6 |
0.1 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
Business Investment |
3.8 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
Non-Res. Structures |
-6.9 |
0.5 |
-0.9 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
-3.3 |
-0.6 |
0.7 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
Equipment & IPP* |
6.6 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
6.2 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
Residential Investment |
-10.7 |
-16.5 |
5.6 |
9.8 |
3.6 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
-19.0 |
-7.9 |
11.4 |
7.5 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
Govt. Expenditure |
-0.6 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Final Domestic Demand |
1.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
Exports |
7.2 |
4.5 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
Imports |
8.2 |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
Change in Private |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inventories |
124.9 |
71.3 |
58.0 |
53.8 |
53.8 |
53.8 |
53.7 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Final Sales |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
International Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Account Balance ($Bn) |
-958 |
-903 |
-984 |
-992 |
-996 |
-1001 |
-985 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
% of GDP |
-3.8 |
-3.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.4 |
-3.3 |
-3.2 |
-3.0 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
including IVA&CCA |
8.4 |
-0.6 |
1.0 |
2.8 |
4.5 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
9.6 |
-5.2 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
4.9 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
% of GDP |
11.8 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
10.8 |
11.0 |
11.2 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
7.0 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
Nominal GDP |
9.2 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
7.4 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
Labor Force |
1.9 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Employment |
4.3 |
1.8 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
3.4 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
6,346 |
2,673 |
-872 |
639 |
1,027 |
434 |
391 |
5,128 |
786 |
-815 |
1,292 |
752 |
348 |
444 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
3.6 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Personal Disp. Income |
-0.1 |
7.1 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
6.4 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
8.0 |
4.7 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
7.1 |
4.0 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
6.1 |
5.0 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
6.0 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
5.0 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.56 |
1.24 |
1.38 |
1.48 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
-1.7 |
-0.3 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
-1.8 |
-0.1 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2022.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: avg. of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common.
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator |
Annual Average |
4th Quarter / 4th Quarter |
22 |
23F |
24F |
25F |
26F |
27F |
28F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
25F |
26F |
27F |
28F |
Real GDP |
3.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
Consumer Expenditure |
4.8 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
Durable Goods |
-2.0 |
0.4 |
-1.3 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
-0.2 |
-1.3 |
-0.2 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
Business Investment |
6.4 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
4.1 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
Non-Res. Structures |
8.0 |
4.0 |
|
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