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Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Rates

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.

Interest Rates 2023 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Fed Funds Target Rate  5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50
3-mth T-Bill Rate  4.68 5.17 5.32 5.20 5.23 5.25 5.25 5.05 4.65 4.15 3.65 3.15
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.06 4.87 5.03 4.23 4.59 4.70 4.50 4.30 4.00 3.70 3.40 3.10
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.60 4.13 4.60 3.84 4.21 4.30 4.30 4.10 3.85 3.60 3.40 3.20
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.48 3.81 4.59 3.88 4.20 4.30 4.30 4.15 3.95 3.75 3.60 3.45
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.67 3.85 4.73 4.03 4.34 4.45 4.45 4.35 4.25 4.05 3.90 3.75
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread -0.58 -1.06 -0.44 -0.35 -0.39 -0.40 -0.20 -0.15 -0.05 0.05 0.20 0.35

Foreign Exchange Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.

Currency Exchange Rate 2023 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
 Euro   USD per EUR 1.09 1.09 1.06 1.11 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.12
 UK Pound   USD per GBP 1.24 1.27 1.22 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.23 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.30
 Australian Dollar   USD per AUD 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
 NZ Dollar   USD per NZD 0.63 0.61 0.60 0.63 0.60 0.61 0.59 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.63
 Canadian Dollar   CAD per USD 1.35 1.32 1.35 1.32 1.35 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.35 1.34
 Swiss Franc   CHF per USD 0.91 0.89 0.91 0.84 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89
 Japanese Yen   JPY per USD 133 144 149 141 151 157 156 155 154 152 151 149
 Chinese Renminbi CNY per USD 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. All forecasts are period averages. Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.

Commodity 2023 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 76 74 82 78 77 80 82 80 78 78 78 76
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 2.66 2.16 2.59 2.75 2.23 2.30 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.10 3.10 3.20
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1889 1977 1928 1977 2072 2325 2350 2350 2350 2325 2275 2175
Silver ($US/troy oz.) 22.56 24.19 23.58 23.27 23.37 29.00 31.00 31.00 31.00 30.00 29.00 28.00
Copper (cents/lb) 405 384 379 371 383 440 445 450 445 435 435 430
Nickel ($US/lb) 11.81 10.13 9.23 7.81 7.52 8.36 8.15 7.95 7.70 7.70 7.70 7.70
Aluminum (cents/lb) 109 103 98 99 100 110 108 110 112 112 115 115
Wheat ($US/bu) 7.32 6.50 5.76 5.89 5.87 6.10 6.30 6.20 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Global Stock Markets

*Weighted equity index including both developing and emerging markets. Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes Price 30-Day YTD 52-Week 52-Week
May-01 % Chg. % Chg.  High Low
S&P 500 5,057 -3.8 6.0 5,254 4,061
DAX 17,932 -3.0 7.0 18,492 14,687
FTSE 100 8,121 2.1 5.0 8,147 7,257
Nikkei 38,274 -5.2 14.4 40,888 28,950
MSCI AC World Index* 757 -3.4 4.1 784 629

U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.

Economic Indicators 2023 2024 2025 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 23 24F 25F 23 24F 25F
 Real GDP 2.2 2.1 4.9 3.4 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.0 3.1 1.7 2.1
 Consumer Expenditure 3.8 0.8 3.1 3.3 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.7 1.9 2.0
Durable Goods             14.0 -0.3 6.7 3.2 -4.1 2.2 1.6 1.2 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.7 4.2 1.0 2.2 5.8 0.2 2.6
 Business Investment 5.7 7.4 1.5 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.4 4.5 3.5 3.9 4.6 3.5 3.9
Non-Res. Structures 30.3 16.1 11.2 10.9 0.4 -2.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 13.2 4.7 3.7 16.9 1.8 3.5
Equipment & IPP* -0.9 5.1 -1.2 1.7 4.2 5.0 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.5 2.2 3.1 4.0 1.1 4.1 4.1
 Residential Investment -5.3 -2.2 6.7 2.8 15.4 -5.1 -3.3 2.9 5.0 5.6 7.1 6.7 -10.6 3.6 3.4 0.4 2.2 6.1
 Govt. Expenditure 4.8 3.3 5.8 4.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.1 2.6 0.8 4.6 1.3 0.5
 Final Domestic Demand 3.8 2.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.0 3.2 2.0 2.1
 Exports                   6.8 -9.3 5.4 5.0 1.2 -0.3 2.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 2.6 1.7 3.2 1.8 1.6 3.7
 Imports                   1.3 -7.6 4.2 2.2 7.7 5.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 -1.7 3.9 3.3 -0.1 4.8 3.1
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 27.2 14.9 77.8 54.9 30.9 62.4 68.5 69.6 64.0 58.4 57.1 55.8 43.7 57.9 58.8 -- -- --
 Final Sales 4.6 2.1 3.6 3.9 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.3 2.0 3.5 1.6 2.2
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -851 -860 -786 -779 -841 -1002 -1061 -1073 -1080 -1073 -1062 -1049 -819 -995 -1066 -- -- --
% of GDP  -3.2 -3.2 -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -3.5 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.0 -3.5 -3.6 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 Including IVA&CCA -9.9 0.9 14.4 17.3 -2.4 -2.0 -3.4 1.7 -1.1 0.2 1.9 1.2 1.5 3.4 -0.2 5.1 -1.5 0.6
% of GDP  11.8 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.9 11.7 11.2 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 5.3 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.6 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.3
 Nominal GDP  6.3 3.8 8.3 5.1 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 6.3 5.0 4.4 5.9 4.4 4.4
 Labor Force 3.9 1.4 1.9 0.4 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.9 0.5 0.7
 Employment  2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.3 1.7 1.0 1.9 1.6 0.9
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  899 753 667 617 772 698 551 414 356 360 361 362 3534 2659 1658 2936 2435 1439
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  15.5 5.8 3.1 2.7 5.3 3.6 4.3 4.4 5.3 4.8 4.9 5.1 8.0 4.1 4.7 6.7 4.4 5.0
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  4.8 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.5 3.7 4.3 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 5.7 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 4.1 3.2 2.2 3.2 3.1 2.1
 Core CPI (y/y) 5.5 5.2 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 4.8 3.6 2.5 4.0 3.4 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 4.1 2.8 2.2 3.2 2.9 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 -- -- --
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) -0.5 1.3 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.7 0.9 1.7

 

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Share of 2021 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Source: National Statistics Agencies, TD Economics.

    2022 2023 2024F 2025F
Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 (42.4%)* 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.6
  U.S. 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.0
  Japan 1.0 1.8 0.4 1.2
  Euro Area 3.5 0.6 0.7 1.2
  Germany 1.9 0.0 0.2 1.3
  France 2.6 1.1 0.9 1.3
  Italy 4.1 1.0 0.9 1.0
  United Kingdom 4.3 0.1 0.7 1.3
  Canada 3.8 1.2 1.0 1.5
Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 7.3 4.7 2.8 2.1
  U.S. 8.0 4.1 3.2 2.2
  Japan 2.5 3.3 2.2 1.6
  Euro Area 8.4 5.4 2.5 2.1
  Germany 8.7 6.0 2.5 2.1
  France 5.9 5.7 2.6 2.0
  Italy 8.7 5.9 1.2 1.8
  United Kingdom 9.1 7.3 2.5 2.2
  Canada 6.8 3.9 2.5 2.2
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages)
  U.S. 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.0
  Japan 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3
  Euro Area 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5
  Germany 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.7
  France 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.2
  Italy 8.1 7.7 7.5 7.9
  United Kingdom 3.9 4.0 4.6 4.7
  Canada 5.3 5.4 6.3 6.6

Global Economic Outlook.

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Share of 2021 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast for India refers to fiscal year. Source: International Monetary Fund, TD Economics.

2022 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2023 2024F 2025F
World 100.0 3.2 3.0 3.0
North America 18.9 2.5 2.2 1.9
   United States 15.5 2.5 2.4 2.0
   Canada 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.5
   Mexico 1.9 3.2 2.1 2.2
European Union (EU-27) 14.9 0.6 0.9 1.6
   Euro Area (EU-20) 12.0 0.6 0.7 1.2
        Germany 3.3 0.0 0.2 1.3
        France  2.3 1.1 0.9 1.3
        Italy 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.0
   Other EU Members 2.8 0.3 2.0 3.0
Asia 45.0 4.8 4.4 4.1
   Japan 3.8 1.8 0.4 1.2
   Asian NIC's 3.5 1.5 3.0 2.0
        Hong Kong 0.3 3.3 3.2 2.5
        Korea 1.7 1.4 2.7 2.0
        Singapore  0.4 1.1 2.5 2.5
        Taiwan 1.0 1.3 3.6 1.5
   Russia 2.9 3.0 2.8 1.9
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 1.8 1.3 2.4
   Emerging Asia 32.8 5.8 5.3 4.9
        ASEAN-5 5.2 4.4 4.9 5.0
        China 18.4 5.2 5.0 4.3
        India** 7.3 8.2 6.5 6.5
Central/South America 5.4 1.4 1.1 2.2
   Brazil 2.3 2.9 1.9 2.3
Other Emerging Markets 12.7 3.6 2.6 3.0
Other Advanced 3.4 0.4 1.0 1.6
   United Kingdom 2.3 0.1 0.7 1.3


Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Intellectual property products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.

Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F
 Real GDP 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Consumer Expenditure 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
Durable Goods             4.2 1.0 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.8 0.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Business Investment 4.5 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.6 3.5 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Non-Res. Structures 13.2 4.7 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 16.9 1.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 2.2 3.1 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.1 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
 Residential Investment -10.6 3.6 3.4 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 2.2 6.1 4.8 1.4 0.7 0.5
 Govt. Expenditure 4.1 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0
 Final Domestic Demand 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 3.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9
 Exports                   2.6 1.7 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 1.8 1.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
 Imports                   -1.7 3.9 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 -0.1 4.8 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories 43.7 57.9 58.8 54.6 54.6 54.6 54.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.5 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0
 International Current                            
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -819 -995 -1066 -1016 -986 -963 -918 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
% of GDP  -3.0 -3.5 -3.6 -3.2 -3.0 -2.8 -2.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits                            
 Including IVA&CCA 1.5 3.4 -0.2 2.0 4.2 5.8 6.6 5.1 -1.5 0.6 3.1 4.5 6.4 6.4
% of GDP  11.9 11.7 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.4 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 3.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2
 Nominal GDP  6.3 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.9 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3
 Labor Force 1.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
 Employment  2.3 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  3,534 2,659 1,658 1,206 999 960 960 2,936 2,435 1,439 1,062 960 960 960
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  8.0 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 6.7 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  4.5 3.7 4.3 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.7 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 4.1 3.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.2 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1
 Core CPI (y/y) 4.8 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 4.0 3.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.42 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.7 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9

Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: Avg. of CPI-trim and CPI-median.
Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.

            Economic Indicator                 Annual Average 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter
23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F
  Real GDP 1.2 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
Consumer Expenditure 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8
Durable Goods             2.1 1.6 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 3.1 -0.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7
Business Investment -0.5 -0.8 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 -3.1 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9
Non-Res. Structures 2.6 -2.3 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 -4.0 3.1 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.9
Equipment & IPP* -3.7 0.7 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 -2.1 4.8 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8
Residential Investment -10.3 0.4 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 -3.1 0.5 3.9 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.9
Govt. Expenditure 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
   Final Domestic Demand 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
Exports                   5.4 1.9 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 4.5 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6
Imports                   0.9 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
Change in Non-Farm                            
Inventories (2012 $Bn) 39.8 29.3 23.1 23.1 24.6 25.1 25.5 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
   Final Sales 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
International Current                            
Account Balance ($Bn)  -21.0 -15.4 -15.4 -14.1 -12.8 -11.8 -10.8 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
% of GDP  -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Pre-Tax Corp. Profits -17.4 -4.8 4.4 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.8 -9.1 -7.7 6.0 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.7
% of GDP  12.9 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  GDP Deflator (y/y) 1.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Nominal GDP  2.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.1 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
  Labour Force 2.6 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 3.1 2.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8
  Employment  2.4 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8
  Change in Empl. ('000s)  475 323 165 156 133 131 168 461 248 164 155 112 156 166
  Unemployment Rate (%)  5.4 6.3 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.9 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Personal Disp. Income  5.5 6.3 2.6 2.4 3.2 3.4 3.5 5.4 5.0 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.5
  Pers. Savings Rate (%)  5.5 7.5 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.8 4.6 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Cons. Price Index (y/y) 3.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  CPIX (y/y) ** 3.5 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  BoC Inflation (y/y) *** 4.1 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.6 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Housing Starts ('000s) 242 234 231 251 256 254 253 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Home Prices (y/y) -3.1 0.9 5.7 3.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.1 3.4 6.3 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4
  Real GDP / Worker (y/y) -1.1 -0.6 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 -1.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0

 

Long-Term Interest Rates

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, June 2024. *Upper bound of target range. Note: Annual averages are the average of the four quarterly end-of-period forecasts.
Source: Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, TD Economics.

Interest Rates Annual Average End of Period
23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F
U.S. FIXED INCOME                            
   Fed Funds Target Rate (%)* 5.30 5.45 4.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.50 5.25 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 5.10 5.20 3.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 5.20 5.05 3.15 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.55 4.50 3.55 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 4.23 4.30 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.05 4.25 3.50 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.84 4.10 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20
   10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.95 4.25 3.70 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.88 4.15 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) -0.60 -0.25 0.15 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 -0.35 -0.15 0.35 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45
CANADIAN FIXED INCOME                            
   Overnight Target Rate (%) 4.80 4.65 3.20 2.30 2.25 2.25 2.25 5.00 4.25 2.75 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 4.85 4.50 3.05 2.30 2.25 2.25 2.25 5.04 4.00 2.63 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.25 3.80 2.65 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 3.88 3.35 2.40 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.55 3.40 2.85 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 3.17 3.25 2.65 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60
  10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.30 3.40 3.00 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 3.10 3.30 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) -0.95 -0.40 0.35 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 -0.78 -0.05 0.45 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

 

 

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