Forecasts
June 22, 2026
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to run slightly above its long-run trend rate of growth in 2026/27, aided by expansionary fiscal policy, loose financial conditions, some easing in regulation, and further investments in AI. Canadian economic growth is expected to bounce back in 2026 and into 2027 after a dismal start to the year. However, the pace of recovery is due to be held back by slower population growth and the impact of U.S. tariffs on export demand and business and consumer sentiment.
June 22, 2026
State Economic Forecast
New England entered 2026 on a softer footing. However, financial services activity, defense manufacturing, and health care are helping limit downside risks from federal research funding cuts and elevated trade uncertainty. Economic growth in the Middle Atlantic has remained firm to start 2026, supported by the region’s large whitecollar industries and significant investments tied to artificial intelligence. Economic activity in the Upper South Atlantic is set to firm as 2026 unfolds, helped by the impact of federal spending cuts falling increasingly in the rearview mirror, and continued resilience in North Carolina. Economic growth in the Lower South Atlantic has eased, with its outperformance versus the nation likely to narrow this year.
June 18, 2026
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Iran-U.S. peace deal has sent oil prices down, but not to pre-war levels. Four months of supply backlogs will take time to normalize, and the impact of higher prices will still be felt in the global economy. Global growth has shifted into a lower gear, compounded by prospects for renewed central bank tightening. The U.S. economy is set for another solid year of growth, leaving inflation too high for the Fed’s comfort. Patience is expected to be the Fed’s gameplan this year, with rate cuts off the table.
May 19, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
As the conflict in the Middle East extends deeper into the year, this quarter's Q&A focuses on what it means for the global economy, inflation and interest rates. We also take a look at the risks creeping into private credit, job creation and where things stand on U.S. tariffs and the upcoming USMCA review.
April 16, 2026
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
The Iran conflict has triggered a major energy supply shock, pushing oil prices meaningfully higher and extending the inflation impulse beyond what was initially expected. Provided a longer-term peace deal is reached in the coming weeks, we still see a narrow window for the Fed to deliver on two more rate cuts in Q4.
February 26, 2026
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
I thought President Trump threw us curve balls last year, but the start of 2026 came completely out of left field. This presentation will cut thru the noise and review what’s new and not in the U.S. outlook. The main takeaway is that the U.S. economy has been unflappable, with the forecast materially revised up.
December 04, 2025
The Days Of Our Lives
Yes, the title of this presentation comes from a famous soap opera. It’s appropriate to depict the past year, full of economic and political drama. We’re on the cusp of closing out 2025, a dramatic 365 days marked by the shifting sands in government policies and corporate behaviors. And this final quarter of the year has brought forward more pivots on both sides of the border that will keep us glued to the next episode. My only hope is that the economic drama doesn’t run sixty-three seasons like the soap opera!
September 02, 2025
Tails We Win, Heads You Lose
The U.S. has been disruptor of itself. Whether it be to its own business cost structures and trade flows with tariff policies, or labor force dynamics with uncertainty and immigration policies. And yet, it’s paying a lower economic cost relative to peer countries. That gave rise to the title: Tails we win, heads you lose. I’ll explore the resilient features of the domestic economy, making sure to distinguish the narratives we hear from the data we see.
April 16, 2025
Tariff Policy and Whiplash Weaken U.S. Growth Outlook
The U.S. administration imposed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, dropping all countries (excluding China) to a flat 10% tariff. This comes in addition to the sectoral tariffs, including steel & aluminum and finished autos & parts. We estimate the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to be 26%, the highest level in over a century. However, this is skewed by the outsized 145% tariff on China.
January 29, 2025
Reality Bites: Finding the Next U.S. Growth Dividend
With executive orders flying fast and furious from President Trump, investor optimism of an unleashing in animal spirits is kept in check by the reality of simple arithmetic on the economy. The median consensus forecast remains anchored towards 2% economic growth for this year and next. This marks a step down in momentum from the administration years of both Biden and Trump’s first term. Each of those three-year periods had near identical real GDP growth, averaging 2.7%, excluding the exaggerated results from the pandemic period (2020-2021).
