Updated Publications
March 19, 2026
State Economic Forecast
New England enters 2026 on a weak footing, but financial services activity, defense manufacturing, and healthcare have helped limit downside risks from federal research funding cuts and elevated trade uncertainty. Economic growth has remained robust coming into 2026, as the Middle Atlantic's large white-collar industries benefited from lower interest rates and significant investments in artificial intelligence. Economic activity in the Upper South Atlantic slowed to an estimated 1.8% last year. While growth eased across all states in the region, the slowdown was more pronounced in the DMV (D.C., Maryland and Virginia), where federal layoffs have had a deeper impact. Economic growth in the Lower South Atlantic eased in 2025 but held well above the national rate at 2.7%. Its outperformance vis-à-vis the nation will likely dissipate this year, as a soft start to the year in Florida and South Carolina holds back these typically high performers.
March 17, 2026
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Middle East conflict has not just lifted oil prices, but forecast uncertainty is even snaking its way into other areas like food security for some nations. The economic fallout hinges on duration. Our baseline outlook assumes a short-lived conflict, implying a temporary impact on inflation and growth; a prolonged escalation would materially worsen the global outlook.
February 12, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The start of 2026 sparked plenty of economic shifts for our Q&A. From swings in the U.S. Dollar to President Trump's new nominee for Fed Chair, to various housing policy shifts under consideration on the U.S. side. Amidst it all, an economy once again displaying surprising strength.
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year. Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices on the firm side in 2026.
