Updated Publications
December 17, 2025
State Economic Forecast
The New England economy has cooled in 2025 as a combination of reduced tourist inflows, federal research funding cuts, and trade uncertainty has weighed on the region. A rebound in the region's financial industry has helped to boost economic growth in 2025, particularly in New York. Growth in the Upper South Atlantic looks to have slowed to 1.7% in 2025 from 2.8% in the previous year. Economic growth in the Lower South Atlantic has slowed this year, but at 2.5% looks to have kept an edge over the nation thanks to an above average performance from South Carolina (2.9%) and Florida (2.8%).
December 11, 2025
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
Global growth has stood up to trade turmoil better than many feared earlier this year. Even with momentum expected to slow in 2026, it will be to a lesser extent than we expected three months ago. In contrast, the U.S. economy is forecast to gain a step as Fed rate cuts, the OBBBA and regulatory changes provide a tailwind.
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year. Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices on the firm side in 2026.
November 25, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
It's hard to write anything these days without addressing the impact of tariffs, but this quarter bubbled up many other issues for our Q&A. The effects of the U.S. government shutdown, signals from the labor market and the Fed's next interest rate move are also examined.
