Updated Publications
June 20, 2025
State Economic Forecast
The New England economy has begun to cool in 2025 as risks build on multiple fronts. We expect real GDP growth to ease to 1.4% this year amid this backdrop. The Middle Atlantic region's sizeable trade & transportation sector benefitted from the sharp increase in imports in the first quarter, but with broad-based tariffs now in effect this trend has reversed course. We expect real GDP growth to decelerate to 1.4% in 2025. Economic activity in the Upper South Atlantic is expected to shift into lower gear this year, with growth forecasted at 1.7%. The Lower South Atlantic's strong growth of 3.6% last year is unlikely to be repeated this year. A maturing economic cycle, coupled with several one-off factors, are set to slow the region's growth to an anticipated 2.0%.
June 17, 2025
Long-Term Forecast
The U.S. economy is forecast to run below its long-run trend rate of growth in 2025, as growth is slowed by tariffs, fiscal restraint and slower population growth. Real GDP growth then briefly overshoots in 2026/27 - owing to a rebound in housing and further household and business tax cuts - and then converges closer to potential by 2028. Slower near-term growth pushes the unemployment rate slightly higher, reaching 4.5% by Q4-2025 before gradually returning to its long-run average of 4% by mid-2027.
June 17, 2025
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
Dramatic policy shifts in Washington continue to drive the narrative underlying the global economic outlook. It has been a wild ride since our March forecast, with the Liberation Day tariffs initially proving to be far higher than expected, only to be delayed. It remains highly uncertain what path U.S. tariff policy will take, the biggest wildcard in our forecast.
May 14, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The policy shifts and flips in the first 100 days of the Trump administration have kept forecasters and financial markets on their toes. The administration has moved quickly on multiple fronts, with the unprecedented spike in U.S. tariffs having rippled within equity markets, treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, only now to move in the other direction despite ongoing risks on the tariff front. Once again, this quarter's Q&A is dominated by the potential impacts
