Updated Publications
September 23, 2025
State Economic Forecast
The New England economy has cooled in 2025 as a combination of reduced tourist inflows, federal research funding cuts, and trade uncertainty has weighed on the region. Despite a modest recovery through the summer, the Middle Atlantic economy has seen limited upside in 2025 as elevated uncertainty has constrained private sector activity. Economic growth in the Upper South Atlantic is shifting into lower gear, resulting in slower job growth, and rising unemployment rates. Weakness is concentrated in the DMV (DC, Maryland and Virginia), where federal employment cuts weigh on the region. Growth in the Lower South Atlantic is slowing, but the trend is not uniform across the region.
September 18, 2025
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
Despite all the twists and turns in U.S. trade policy, our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged from our June view. Ditto for the U.S. economy, at least on the surface. Consumers have pulled back as the labor market has cooled, but that has been offset by strong business investment. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates further to support the labor market that has cooled further than previously believed.
August 20, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The global economy continues to slow in 2025, catalyzed by thickening trade barriers. This quarter's Q&A discusses the impacts of the evolving U.S. tariff regime along with several other policy shifts.
