U.S. Employment (April 2026)

Payrolls remain firm in April, unemployment rate holds steady at 4.3%

• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115k in April, down from March's gain of 185k but ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a smaller print of 65k. Revisions to the two prior months subtracted a total of 16k from the previously reported figures, with February revised lower (-156k from -133k) and March slightly higher (+185k from +178k).
  • Smoothing through the volatility, nonfarm payrolls averaged 48k per-month over the last three months, up from the -39k averaged through the three months ending in December 2025.  
• Private payrolls rose 123k, following a stronger gain of 190k in March. Job gains were concentrated in health care & social assistance (+53.9k), transportation & warehousing (+30.3k) and retail trade (+21.8k). Federal government hiring (-9k) continued to decline. 
• In the household survey, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% as the number of unemployed were little changed amid a small decline in the labor force (-92k). The labor force participation rate fell to 61.8% (from 61.9% the month prior), which is its lowest level since late-2021.
• Average hourly earnings (AHE) rose a "soft" 0.2% month-on-month (m/m), matching March's gain. On a twelve-month basis, AHE ticked up to 3.6% (from 3.4% the month prior).

Key Implications

• Payrolls were volatile through Q1, largely due to temporary factors like inclement weather and a healthcare strike in California. With those effects now in the rearview mirror, April provided as the first "clean" read on hiring for 2026 and the underlying details were reasonably constructive, despite the recent surge in energy prices. Job growth appears to have picked up from its anemic pace at the end of last year and is now running reasonably close to its breakeven rate – holding the unemployment rate steady. 
• It's too soon to say whether the labor market is regaining momentum, but this morning's report alongside other recent data points including initial jobless claims and job posting data by Indeed certainly help to assuage any fears that conditions have continued to cool. From the Fed's perspective, this means they can sit tight to better assess the extent to which higher energy prices bleed through to core measures of inflation in the months ahead. Yields were relatively muted post-payrolls, with Fed futures priced for the FOMC to remain on hold into next year.

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