Global Stock Markets
*Weighted equity index including both developed and emerging markets.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes |
Price |
30-Day |
YTD |
52-Week |
52-Week |
Feb-22 |
% Chg. |
% Chg. |
High |
Low |
S&P 500 |
4,015 |
1.1 |
4.6 |
4,632 |
3,577 |
S&P/TSX Composite |
20,258 |
-1.2 |
4.5 |
22,087 |
18,206 |
DAX |
15,400 |
2.4 |
10.6 |
15,534 |
11,976 |
FTSE 100 |
7,931 |
2.1 |
6.4 |
8,014 |
6,826 |
Nikkei |
27,104 |
2.1 |
3.9 |
29,223 |
24,718 |
MSCI AC World Index* |
637 |
0.0 |
5.2 |
723 |
550 |
Commodity Price Outlook
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2023. All forecasts are period averages.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics, USDA (Haver).
Commodity |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) |
94 |
109 |
93 |
83 |
77 |
83 |
89 |
90 |
90 |
89 |
88 |
85 |
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) |
4.66 |
7.48 |
7.99 |
5.55 |
2.50 |
3.00 |
3.20 |
3.80 |
4.20 |
4.50 |
4.80 |
4.75 |
Gold ($US/troy oz.) |
1876 |
1873 |
1728 |
1731 |
1840 |
1850 |
1870 |
1900 |
1920 |
1925 |
1900 |
1880 |
Silver ($US/troy oz.) |
24.05 |
22.66 |
19.25 |
21.30 |
22.30 |
22.00 |
22.50 |
22.80 |
22.90 |
23.00 |
23.04 |
23.06 |
Copper (cents/lb) |
453 |
433 |
352 |
363 |
405 |
406 |
406 |
408 |
411 |
411 |
412 |
414 |
Nickel ($US/lb) |
12.73 |
13.20 |
10.00 |
11.53 |
12.40 |
11.50 |
11.00 |
10.90 |
10.80 |
10.70 |
10.68 |
10.65 |
Aluminum (cents/lb) |
148 |
131 |
107 |
105 |
105 |
108 |
109 |
111 |
113 |
115 |
120 |
122 |
Wheat ($US/bu) |
11.55 |
13.69 |
10.72 |
11.60 |
10.80 |
9.00 |
8.50 |
8.40 |
8.20 |
8.10 |
7.90 |
7.70 |
Canadian Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2023.
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components.
*** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim and CPI-median.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
Real GDP |
2.4 |
3.6 |
2.3 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
3.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
2.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
Consumer Expenditure |
2.1 |
9.3 |
-0.4 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
1.2 |
-0.7 |
-0.6 |
-0.3 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
4.8 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
Durable Goods |
7.9 |
-13.7 |
-6.7 |
14.4 |
2.0 |
-1.0 |
-3.5 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
-2.0 |
0.4 |
-1.3 |
-0.2 |
-1.3 |
-0.2 |
Business Investment |
3.2 |
12.2 |
4.0 |
-2.5 |
2.3 |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
6.4 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
4.1 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
Non-Res. Structures |
4.2 |
5.8 |
9.4 |
10.2 |
3.0 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
8.0 |
4.0 |
1.3 |
7.4 |
0.7 |
2.1 |
Equipment & IPP* |
2.2 |
19.8 |
-1.4 |
-14.8 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
4.9 |
-1.5 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
Residential Investment |
7.2 |
-30.3 |
-18.9 |
-8.8 |
-8.0 |
-4.0 |
-1.0 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
-11.1 |
-9.3 |
0.6 |
-13.8 |
-3.2 |
1.6 |
Govt. Expenditure |
3.8 |
-2.4 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
Final Domestic Demand |
3.1 |
2.1 |
-0.8 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
2.7 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
Exports |
-7.5 |
6.9 |
10.6 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
Imports |
1.3 |
27.5 |
-1.8 |
-12.0 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
7.2 |
-0.3 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
Change in Non-farm |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inventories (2012 $Bn) |
21.2 |
48.4 |
43.9 |
19.2 |
13.2 |
9.2 |
6.2 |
4.2 |
2.2 |
-0.8 |
-2.8 |
-3.8 |
33.2 |
8.2 |
-1.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
0.5 |
-4.5 |
0.1 |
6.8 |
2.9 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
International Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Account Balance ($Bn) |
11.0 |
22.0 |
-33.7 |
-42.6 |
-18.4 |
-19.0 |
-17.2 |
-15.9 |
-14.9 |
-13.5 |
-12.2 |
-11.2 |
-10.8 |
-17.6 |
-12.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
0.4 |
0.8 |
-1.2 |
-1.5 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-0.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
20.5 |
51.1 |
-30.0 |
-40.7 |
2.4 |
1.0 |
-1.2 |
-0.3 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
8.9 |
-10.7 |
1.1 |
-6.7 |
0.5 |
2.4 |
% of GDP |
15.6 |
16.7 |
15.3 |
13.6 |
13.5 |
13.4 |
13.3 |
13.2 |
13.1 |
13.1 |
13.1 |
13.1 |
15.3 |
13.4 |
13.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
8.8 |
9.6 |
7.0 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
-0.4 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
7.4 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
Nominal GDP |
15.4 |
16.8 |
-2.5 |
-2.7 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
11.0 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
6.4 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
Labour Force |
1.1 |
1.4 |
-0.1 |
2.2 |
4.3 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
Employment |
3.3 |
4.0 |
-0.1 |
2.2 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
-0.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
4.0 |
1.8 |
-0.1 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
157 |
191 |
-4 |
109 |
219 |
24 |
-19 |
-24 |
-24 |
-3 |
18 |
46 |
750 |
349 |
-27 |
453 |
200 |
38 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
5.7 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
14.6 |
5.6 |
2.0 |
12.4 |
8.4 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
5.2 |
5.8 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
8.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
5.8 |
7.6 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
6.8 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
6.6 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
4.9 |
6.0 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
4.8 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
5.6 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
5.7 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
2.7 |
4.1 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
2.3 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
Housing Starts ('000s) |
241 |
271 |
281 |
258 |
228 |
228 |
222 |
216 |
212 |
207 |
205 |
202 |
263 |
223 |
206 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Home Prices (y/y) |
17.0 |
3.4 |
-4.8 |
-11.2 |
-20.0 |
-13.1 |
-5.6 |
-2.6 |
1.2 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
0.8 |
-10.8 |
2.7 |
-11.2 |
-2.6 |
3.3 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
-1.7 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.9 |
-0.8 |
-1.4 |
-0.7 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
0.6 |
U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at March 2023.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
22 |
23F |
24F |
Real GDP |
-1.6 |
-0.6 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
Consumer Expenditure |
1.3 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
2.8 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
Durable Goods |
7.7 |
-2.8 |
-0.8 |
-1.9 |
3.2 |
-2.6 |
-4.6 |
-2.3 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
-0.5 |
-1.1 |
-1.4 |
0.5 |
-1.6 |
0.1 |
Business Investment |
7.9 |
0.1 |
6.2 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
1.1 |
-1.5 |
-0.2 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.8 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
4.3 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
Non-Res. Structures |
-4.4 |
-12.7 |
-3.6 |
8.5 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
-4.0 |
-2.3 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
-6.9 |
0.5 |
-0.9 |
-3.3 |
-0.6 |
0.7 |
Equipment & IPP* |
11.1 |
3.4 |
8.7 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
1.3 |
-0.9 |
0.3 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
6.6 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
6.2 |
0.9 |
2.3 |
Residential Investment |
-3.1 |
-17.8 |
-27.1 |
-25.9 |
-11.9 |
-16.5 |
-5.2 |
3.2 |
10.3 |
11.4 |
11.5 |
12.3 |
-10.7 |
-16.5 |
5.6 |
-19.0 |
-7.9 |
11.4 |
Govt. Expenditure |
-2.3 |
-1.6 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
-0.6 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
Final Domestic Demand |
1.3 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
Exports |
-4.6 |
13.8 |
14.6 |
-1.6 |
7.0 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
7.2 |
4.5 |
1.9 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
Imports |
18.4 |
2.3 |
-7.3 |
-4.2 |
4.0 |
-2.7 |
-1.3 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
8.2 |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
Change in Private |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inventories |
214.5 |
110.2 |
38.7 |
136.3 |
80.4 |
61.1 |
68.3 |
75.2 |
66.5 |
58.0 |
53.7 |
53.7 |
124.9 |
71.3 |
58.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
-1.8 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
International Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Account Balance ($Bn) |
-1130 |
-955 |
-868 |
-880 |
-868 |
-879 |
-914 |
-952 |
-972 |
-979 |
-988 |
-995 |
-958 |
-903 |
-984 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-4.6 |
-3.8 |
-3.4 |
-3.4 |
-3.3 |
-3.3 |
-3.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.8 |
-3.4 |
-3.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
including IVA&CCA |
0.5 |
19.7 |
-0.2 |
20.2 |
-18.5 |
1.6 |
-1.4 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
8.4 |
-0.6 |
1.0 |
9.6 |
-5.2 |
2.8 |
% of GDP |
11.6 |
11.9 |
11.7 |
12.0 |
11.3 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
11.8 |
11.1 |
10.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
6.9 |
7.6 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
5.3 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
7.0 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
Nominal GDP |
6.6 |
8.5 |
7.7 |
6.7 |
5.0 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
9.2 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
7.4 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
Labor Force |
4.5 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
3.7 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
Employment |
4.6 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
4.3 |
1.8 |
-0.6 |
3.4 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
1689 |
1197 |
1287 |
955 |
969 |
270 |
-176 |
-277 |
-360 |
-268 |
-145 |
-42 |
6346 |
2673 |
-872 |
5128 |
786 |
-815 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
-3.9 |
4.8 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
10.5 |
5.2 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
-0.1 |
7.1 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
3.5 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
4.3 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
8.0 |
8.6 |
8.3 |
7.1 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
8.0 |
4.7 |
2.5 |
7.1 |
4.0 |
1.8 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
6.3 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
2.8 |
6.0 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
2.1 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.72 |
1.65 |
1.45 |
1.41 |
1.29 |
1.21 |
1.20 |
1.27 |
1.34 |
1.37 |
1.40 |
1.43 |
1.56 |
1.24 |
1.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
-1.0 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
-1.8 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
-1.7 |
-0.3 |
1.6 |
-1.8 |
-0.1 |
1.9 |
Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe
*Share of 2019 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Forecast as at March 2023.
Source: National statistics agencies, TD Economics.
|
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023F |
2024F |
Real GDP (annual per cent change) |
G7 (30.1%)* |
5.3 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
|
U.S. |
5.9 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
|
Japan |
2.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
|
Euro Area |
5.3 |
3.5 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|
Germany |
2.6 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
0.7 |
|
France |
6.8 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
|
Italy |
7.0 |
3.8 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
United Kingdom |
7.6 |
4.0 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
|
Canada |
5.0 |
3.4 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
Consumer Price Index (annual per cent change) |
G7 |
3.3 |
7.3 |
4.7 |
2.1 |
|
U.S. |
4.7 |
8.0 |
4.7 |
2.5 |
|
Japan |
-0.2 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
|
Euro Area |
2.6 |
8.4 |
5.6 |
2.3 |
|
Germany |
3.2 |
8.7 |
6.1 |
2.4 |
|
France |
2.1 |
5.9 |
5.2 |
2.3 |
|
Italy |
1.9 |
8.7 |
6.7 |
2.2 |
|
United Kingdom |
2.6 |
9.1 |
6.1 |
2.2 |
|
Canada |
3.4 |
6.8 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
Unemployment Rate (per cent annual averages) |
|
U.S. |
5.4 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
|
Japan |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
|
Euro Area |
7.7 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
|
Germany |
5.7 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
|
France |
7.8 |
7.3 |
7.5 |
7.9 |
|
Italy |
9.5 |
8.1 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
|
United Kingdom |
4.5 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
|
Canada |
7.5 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
Global Economic Outlook
[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
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