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Economic & Financial Forecasts

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022; Forecasts for exchange rate and yields are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve.
  2021 2022F 2023F
Real GDP (annual % change)      
Canada 4.5 3.7 1.7
U.S. 5.7 2.2 1.4
Canada (rates, %)      
Overnight Target Rate  0.25 3.25 3.25
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  0.95 3.50 3.05
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.42 3.65 3.35
U.S. (rates, %)      
Fed Funds Target Rate  0.25 3.25 3.25
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  0.73 3.30 2.95
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.52 3.50 3.30
 WTI ($US/bbl) 77 105 85
 Exchange Rate (USD per CAD) 0.78 0.81 0.78

 

Interest Rate Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Interest Rates 2021 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Canada                        
Overnight Target Rate  0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.50 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3-mth T-Bill Rate  0.09 0.15 0.12 0.16 0.60 2.25 3.13 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  0.22 0.45 0.53 0.95 2.27 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.45 3.30 3.20 3.05
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  0.99 0.97 1.11 1.25 2.39 3.40 3.50 3.65 3.60 3.50 3.40 3.25
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.55 1.39 1.51 1.42 2.40 3.50 3.60 3.65 3.60 3.55 3.45 3.35
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.98 1.84 1.99 1.68 2.38 3.40 3.55 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.65 3.60
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 1.33 0.94 0.98 0.47 0.13 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.25 0.30
U.S.                         
Fed Funds Target Rate  0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.75 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
3-mth T-Bill Rate  0.03 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.51 2.00 3.00 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  0.16 0.25 0.28 0.73 2.28 3.20 3.30 3.30 3.25 3.10 3.00 2.95
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  0.92 0.87 0.98 1.26 2.42 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.40 3.30 3.20 3.15
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  1.74 1.45 1.52 1.52 2.32 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.45 3.40 3.35 3.30
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.41 2.06 2.08 1.90 2.44 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.75 3.70 3.65 3.60
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 1.58 1.20 1.24 0.79 0.04 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.35
Canada-U.S. Spreads              
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread 0.06 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.25 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread -0.19 -0.06 -0.01 -0.10 0.08 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.05


Foreign Exchange Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Currency Exchange rate 2021 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Exchange rate to U.S. dollar                        
 Euro   USD per EUR 1.17 1.19 1.16 1.13 1.11 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.13
 UK pound   USD per GBP 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.32 1.22 1.20 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.38 1.39
 Japanese yen   JPY per USD 111 111 112 115 121 134 130 125 120 115 110 105
 Chinese renminbi CNY per USD 6.55 6.46 6.44 6.36 6.34 6.70 6.75 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80
Exchange rate to Canadian dollar                        
 U.S. dollar   USD per CAD 0.80 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.80 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.78
 Euro   CAD per EUR 1.48 1.47 1.47 1.44 1.39 1.33 1.30 1.29 1.34 1.38 1.43 1.46
 UK pound   CAD per GBP 1.73 1.71 1.71 1.72 1.64 1.56 1.51 1.61 1.68 1.73 1.79 1.79
 Japanese yen   JPY per CAD 88.0 89.5 88.0 90.2 97.3 104.7 103.2 100.8 95.2 89.8 84.6 81.4
 Chinese renminbi CNY per CAD 5.21 5.21 5.08 4.98 5.08 5.23 5.36 5.48 5.40 5.31 5.23 5.27

Global Stock Markets

*Weighted equity index including both developed and emerging markets.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes Price 30-Day YTD 52-Week 52-Week
May-04 % Chg. % Chg.  High Low
S&P 500 4,300 -5.4 -9.8 4,797 4,063
S&P/TSX Composite 21,185 -3.5 -0.2 22,087 19,108
DAX 13,971 -3.3 -12.0 16,272 12,832
FTSE 100 7,493 -0.6 1.5 7,672 6,844
Nikkei 26,819 -3.1 -6.9 30,670 24,718
MSCI AC World Index* 656 -7.9 -13.1 759 654

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022. All forecasts are period averages.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics, USDA (Haver).
Commodity 2021 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 58 66 71 77 94 110 115 105 100 95 90 85
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 3.56 2.94 4.36 4.77 4.66 7.74 8.71 7.50 6.00 5.00 4.50 4.00
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1796 1815 1790 1796 1876 1870 1790 1770 1779 1788 1797 1806
Silver ($US/troy oz.) 26.25 26.71 24.30 23.35 24.05 23.00 22.50 21.00 21.11 21.21 21.32 21.42
Copper (cents/lb) 385 439 425 440 453 430 430 425 427 429 431 434
Nickel ($US/lb) 7.97 7.86 8.67 8.99 12.73 13.00 11.00 12.00 12.06 12.12 12.18 12.24
Aluminum (cents/lb) 95 109 120 125 148 150 135 120 121 121 122 122
Wheat ($US/bu) 7.41 8.53 10.27 11.44 11.55 11.55 11.00 10.50 10.55 10.61 10.66 10.71

 

Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022.
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components.
*** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators 2021 2022 2023 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 21 22F 23F 21 22F 23F
 Real GDP 4.4 -3.1 5.3 6.6 3.1 4.4 3.0 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.4 4.5 3.7 1.7 3.2 3.0 1.2
 Consumer Expenditure 0.9 -0.8 20.1 1.8 3.4 3.7 3.2 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 5.0 4.7 1.8 5.2 3.0 1.3
Durable Goods             -9.2 -7.9 -1.9 1.2 10.8 -8.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 7.3 0.6 0.0 -4.6 0.9 0.3
 Business Investment 0.6 13.5 0.4 7.7 7.0 4.0 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.0 5.6 3.7 5.4 4.9 3.3
Non-Res. Structures 15.7 9.4 4.0 13.9 12.0 3.5 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 -0.3 8.1 3.9 10.7 5.9 3.7
Equipment & IPP* -12.1 18.1 -3.3 1.3 1.7 4.6 5.0 3.9 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 4.3 3.0 3.6 0.4 3.8 2.9
 Residential Investment 43.9 -12.7 -30.3 12.4 18.1 -8.0 -7.0 -5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.5 15.3 -1.9 -3.8 -0.4 -1.0 -1.6
 Govt. Expenditure 7.6 1.1 2.7 2.9 2.3 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8 5.6 2.6 2.4 3.5 2.7 2.2
 Final Domestic Demand 6.0 -0.3 7.3 3.7 4.8 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 5.6 3.7 1.8 4.1 2.9 1.5
 Exports                   2.5 -17.1 6.6 13.6 -9.4 5.2 7.6 6.1 4.3 3.4 2.8 2.4 1.4 1.8 4.6 0.8 2.1 3.2
 Imports                   5.6 2.4 -1.2 16.9 -2.8 2.2 5.5 4.8 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.4 7.7 3.6 3.4 5.7 2.4 2.6
 Change in Non-farm                                    
 Inventories (2012 $Bn) -1.7 16.1 -5.4 5.0 7.3 10.0 10.5 8.0 5.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 3.5 9.0 1.6 -- -- --
 Final Sales 7.3 -4.4 12.1 0.6 3.8 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 4.7 3.1 2.2 3.7 2.7 2.1
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn)  1.3 -1.5 5.0 -0.5 20.1 35.8 45.2 46.9 48.5 49.2 49.6 50.5 1.1 37.0 49.4 -- -- --
% of GDP  0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 1.3 1.7 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corp. Profits 85.4 -3.5 -22.2 28.7 33.7 11.1 6.4 -11.0 -7.3 1.8 1.5 1.9 32.3 11.2 -2.0 15.7 8.9 -0.6
% of GDP  16.0 15.6 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.4 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 15.1 14.9 13.9 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 5.9 9.2 8.2 8.9 8.7 8.9 9.1 7.9 5.4 3.5 2.4 2.1 8.1 8.6 3.3 8.9 7.9 2.1
 Nominal GDP  17.7 6.5 10.6 15.2 15.7 15.0 9.3 4.7 3.7 3.3 2.9 3.2 13.0 12.7 5.0 12.4 11.1 3.3
 Labour Force -0.9 0.2 3.7 2.3 0.9 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.4 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9
 Employment  1.5 2.5 6.8 6.2 3.2 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.8 4.0 0.6 4.2 2.3 0.2
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  67 114 310 289 153 213 68 16 11 6 5 8 867 751 119 779 450 30
 Unemployment Rate (%)  8.4 7.9 7.2 6.3 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 7.4 5.3 5.8 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  11.9 6.3 -0.1 -4.5 14.1 10.6 7.1 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.0 6.0 4.4 3.2 8.9 3.3
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  13.7 14.5 9.5 6.9 8.1 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 11.2 7.3 6.5 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 1.4 3.3 4.1 4.7 5.8 7.1 7.2 6.7 5.5 3.6 2.7 2.2 3.4 6.7 3.5 4.7 6.7 2.2
 CPIX (y/y)** 1.4 2.6 3.5 3.8 4.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.8 5.5 3.5 3.8 5.7 2.5
 BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.5 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.1 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.5 4.2 2.9 2.9 4.7 2.2
 Real GDP / worker (y/y) 1.4 -0.3 -1.2 -0.9 -1.7 -0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 -0.9 0.7 1.0
 

U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators          2021 2022 2023 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 21 22F 23F 21 22F 23F
 Real GDP 6.3 6.7 2.3 6.9 -1.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.8 5.7 2.2 1.4 5.5 0.9 1.4
 Consumer Expenditure 11.4 12.0 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.0 7.9 3.2 1.6 6.9 2.5 1.5
Durable Goods             50.0 11.6 -24.6 2.5 6.8 5.0 -0.9 -4.9 -1.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 18.1 -0.3 -1.3 6.7 1.4 -0.6
 Business Investment 12.9 9.2 1.6 2.9 9.2 1.9 4.5 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.9 7.4 4.6 2.0 6.6 4.4 1.6
Non-Res. Structures 5.4 -3.0 -4.1 -8.3 -3.6 -4.5 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 -8.0 -3.8 0.5 -2.6 -1.4 0.6
Equipment & IPP* 14.8 12.3 3.0 5.7 12.4 3.5 5.3 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.3 11.6 6.7 2.3 8.9 5.8 1.8
 Residential Investment 13.3 -11.7 -7.7 2.1 0.4 -12.2 -7.7 -5.1 -2.7 -0.8 0.8 1.7 9.2 -4.9 -3.4 -1.5 -6.3 -0.3
 Govt. Expenditure 4.2 -2.0 0.9 -2.6 -2.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 -1.0 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.9
 Final Domestic Demand 10.4 8.0 1.3 1.7 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.8 6.5 2.3 1.3 5.3 1.9 1.3
 Exports                   -2.9 7.6 -5.3 22.4 -5.4 14.0 7.2 5.2 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.3 4.5 6.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 3.4
 Imports                   9.3 7.1 4.7 17.9 18.3 3.6 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.3 2.5 14.0 9.8 2.6 9.6 6.5 2.5
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories -88.3 -168.5 -66.8 193.2 149.6 99.0 88.1 94.2 95.2 95.9 92.6 89.2 -32.6 107.7 93.2 -- -- --
 Final Sales 9.1 8.1 0.1 1.5 -0.4 2.9 2.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.9 5.3 1.6 1.5 4.6 1.5 1.4
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -750 -785 -879 -872 -1122 -1020 -1010 -1022 -1017 -995 -963 -946 -822 -1044 -980 -- -- --
% of GDP  -3.4 -3.5 -3.8 -3.6 -4.6 -4.1 -4.0 -4.0 -3.9 -3.8 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.2 -3.7 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 including IVA&CCA 22.0 49.1 14.5 2.8 -8.7 -29.2 14.9 0.3 2.2 1.0 4.0 4.3 25.1 -2.4 1.1 21.0 -7.1 2.9
% of GDP  11.6 12.4 12.6 12.2 11.8 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 12.2 10.9 10.5 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.1 4.1 4.6 5.9 6.8 7.2 7.2 6.3 5.0 3.7 2.8 2.6 4.2 6.9 3.5 5.9 6.3 2.6
 Nominal GDP  10.9 13.4 8.4 14.5 6.5 9.3 8.0 5.0 4.0 3.6 4.1 4.2 10.1 9.2 4.9 11.8 7.2 4.0
 Labor Force -0.7 1.4 1.2 1.4 5.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 2.2 1.2 0.8 2.3 1.0
 Employment  3.6 4.1 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.8 4.0 1.0 4.3 2.9 0.4
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  1262 1453 1695 1759 1721 1472 720 464 239 110 105 87 3957 5831 1472 6169 4377 541
 Unemployment Rate (%)  6.2 5.9 5.1 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 5.4 3.6 4.0 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  60.6 -24.5 1.0 1.6 -0.2 5.3 5.2 4.2 3.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 6.2 0.5 4.5 5.6 3.6 4.5
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  20.5 10.9 9.5 7.9 5.6 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 12.2 4.4 4.3 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 1.9 4.8 5.3 6.7 8.0 8.3 8.3 7.0 5.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 4.7 7.9 3.3 6.7 7.0 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 1.4 3.7 4.1 5.0 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.1 4.2 3.2 2.7 2.4 3.6 5.8 3.1 5.0 5.1 2.4
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 1.7 3.4 3.6 4.6 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.2 3.3 4.9 2.9 4.6 4.4 2.2
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.58 1.59 1.57 1.68 1.72 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.61 1.65 1.55 -- -- --
 Real Output per hour** (y/y) 3.9 2.2 -0.4 1.9 -0.6 -2.1 -1.0 -2.4 -0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.9 -1.5 0.4 1.9 -2.4 0.9
 

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

*Share of 2019 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast as at June 2022.
Source: National statistics agencies, TD Economics.
    2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Real GDP (annual per cent change)
G7 (30.1%)* -5.0 5.1 2.4 1.4
  U.S. -3.4 5.7 2.2 1.4
  Japan -4.5 1.7 2.0 1.5
  Euro Area -6.5 5.4 2.6 1.3
  Germany -4.9 2.9 1.8 1.5
  France -8.0 7.0 2.8 1.3
  Italy -9.1 6.6 2.6 1.1
  United Kingdom -9.3 7.4 3.6 0.8
  Canada -5.2 4.5 3.7 1.7
Consumer Price Index (annual per cent change)
G7 0.9 3.3 6.8 3.3
  U.S. 1.2 4.7 7.9 3.3
  Japan 0.0 -0.2 2.0 1.4
  Euro Area 0.3 2.6 7.2 3.6
  Germany 0.4 3.2 7.3 3.5
  France 0.5 2.1 5.3 2.9
  Italy -0.1 1.9 6.6 3.2
  United Kingdom 0.9 2.6 8.4 5.7
  Canada 0.7 3.4 6.7 3.5
Unemployment Rate (per cent annual averages)
  U.S. 8.1 5.4 3.6 4.0
  Japan 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5
  Euro Area 8.0 7.7 7.0 7.2
  Germany 5.9 5.7 5.0 5.0
  France 8.0 7.9 7.2 7.5
  Italy 9.3 9.5 8.4 8.7
  United Kingdom 4.5 4.5 3.8 4.1
  Canada 9.6 7.4 5.3 5.8
 

Global Economic Outlook

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated
*Share of world GDP on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis.
Forecast as at June 2022. **Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: IMF, TD Economics.
2019 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2021 2022 2023
World 100.0 6.1 2.9 2.7
North America 19.2 5.5 2.3 1.5
   United States 15.8 5.7 2.2 1.4
   Canada 1.4 4.5 3.7 1.7
   Mexico 1.9 5.0 2.0 2.0
European Union (EU-28) 15.4 5.3 2.7 1.4
   Euro Area (EU-19) 12.5 5.4 2.6 1.3
        Germany 3.5 2.9 1.8 1.5
        France  2.4 7.0 2.8 1.3
        Italy 2.0 6.6 2.6 1.1
   United Kingdom 2.4 7.4 3.6 0.8
   EU accession members 2.9 5.4 3.5 1.7
Asia 43.2 6.6 3.6 4.2
   Japan 4.1 1.7 2.0 1.5
   Asian NIC's 3.5 5.3 2.8 2.8
        Hong Kong 0.3 6.4 1.0 3.4
        Korea 1.7 4.0 2.6 2.7
        Singapore  0.4 7.6 3.8 2.6
        Taiwan 0.9 6.4 3.4 2.9
   Russia 3.1 4.8 -9.8 -3.3
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 4.7 4.0 3.0
Emerging Asia 31.4 7.6 5.2 5.5
        ASEAN-5 5.7 3.3 5.4 5.0
        China 17.3 8.4 4.0 5.2
        India** 7.1 9.0 8.2 6.6
Central/South America 5.6 7.6 2.3 1.8
   Brazil 2.4 5.0 0.8 1.3
Other Emerging Markets 13.0 5.7 2.0 1.9
Other Advanced 1.1 5.0 3.6 2.3

Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

*Intellectual property products. F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022.
**Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
21 22F 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F 21 22F 23F 24F 25F 26F 27F
 Real GDP 5.7 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 5.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
 Consumer Expenditure 7.9 3.2 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 6.9 2.5 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9
Durable Goods             18.1 -0.3 -1.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 6.7 1.4 -0.6 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.4
 Business Investment 7.4 4.6 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.3 6.6 4.4 1.6 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.3
Non-Res. Structures -8.0 -3.8 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 -2.6 -1.4 0.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2
Equipment & IPP* 11.6 6.7 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.5 2.3 8.9 5.8 1.8 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.3
 Residential Investment 9.2 -4.9 -3.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.8 -1.5 -6.3 -0.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.8
 Govt. Expenditure 0.5 -1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.5
 Final Domestic Demand 6.5 2.3 1.3 1.8