Economic & Financial Forecasts
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022; Forecasts for exchange rate and yields are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve.
|
2021 |
2022F |
2023F |
Real GDP (annual % change) |
|
|
|
Canada |
4.5 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
U.S. |
5.7 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
Canada (rates, %) |
|
|
|
Overnight Target Rate |
0.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
0.95 |
3.50 |
3.05 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
1.42 |
3.65 |
3.35 |
U.S. (rates, %) |
|
|
|
Fed Funds Target Rate |
0.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
0.73 |
3.30 |
2.95 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
1.52 |
3.50 |
3.30 |
WTI ($US/bbl) |
77 |
105 |
85 |
Exchange Rate (USD per CAD) |
0.78 |
0.81 |
0.78 |
Interest Rate Outlook
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Interest Rates |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Canada |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overnight Target Rate |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.50 |
1.50 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate |
0.09 |
0.15 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
0.60 |
2.25 |
3.13 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
0.22 |
0.45 |
0.53 |
0.95 |
2.27 |
3.30 |
3.40 |
3.50 |
3.45 |
3.30 |
3.20 |
3.05 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
0.99 |
0.97 |
1.11 |
1.25 |
2.39 |
3.40 |
3.50 |
3.65 |
3.60 |
3.50 |
3.40 |
3.25 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
1.55 |
1.39 |
1.51 |
1.42 |
2.40 |
3.50 |
3.60 |
3.65 |
3.60 |
3.55 |
3.45 |
3.35 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
1.98 |
1.84 |
1.99 |
1.68 |
2.38 |
3.40 |
3.55 |
3.70 |
3.70 |
3.70 |
3.65 |
3.60 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread |
1.33 |
0.94 |
0.98 |
0.47 |
0.13 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.30 |
U.S. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fed Funds Target Rate |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.50 |
1.75 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3-mth T-Bill Rate |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.51 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
3.15 |
3.15 |
3.15 |
3.15 |
3.15 |
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
0.16 |
0.25 |
0.28 |
0.73 |
2.28 |
3.20 |
3.30 |
3.30 |
3.25 |
3.10 |
3.00 |
2.95 |
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
0.92 |
0.87 |
0.98 |
1.26 |
2.42 |
3.35 |
3.40 |
3.45 |
3.40 |
3.30 |
3.20 |
3.15 |
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
1.74 |
1.45 |
1.52 |
1.52 |
2.32 |
3.30 |
3.40 |
3.50 |
3.45 |
3.40 |
3.35 |
3.30 |
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield |
2.41 |
2.06 |
2.08 |
1.90 |
2.44 |
3.50 |
3.60 |
3.70 |
3.75 |
3.70 |
3.65 |
3.60 |
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread |
1.58 |
1.20 |
1.24 |
0.79 |
0.04 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.30 |
0.35 |
0.35 |
Canada-U.S. Spreads |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread |
0.06 |
0.10 |
0.08 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
0.25 |
0.13 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread |
-0.19 |
-0.06 |
-0.01 |
-0.10 |
0.08 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.10 |
0.05 |
Foreign Exchange Outlook
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Currency |
Exchange rate |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Exchange rate to U.S. dollar |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Euro |
USD per EUR |
1.17 |
1.19 |
1.16 |
1.13 |
1.11 |
1.04 |
1.03 |
1.04 |
1.06 |
1.08 |
1.10 |
1.13 |
UK pound |
USD per GBP |
1.38 |
1.38 |
1.35 |
1.35 |
1.32 |
1.22 |
1.20 |
1.30 |
1.33 |
1.35 |
1.38 |
1.39 |
Japanese yen |
JPY per USD |
111 |
111 |
112 |
115 |
121 |
134 |
130 |
125 |
120 |
115 |
110 |
105 |
Chinese renminbi |
CNY per USD |
6.55 |
6.46 |
6.44 |
6.36 |
6.34 |
6.70 |
6.75 |
6.80 |
6.80 |
6.80 |
6.80 |
6.80 |
Exchange rate to Canadian dollar |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. dollar |
USD per CAD |
0.80 |
0.81 |
0.79 |
0.78 |
0.80 |
0.78 |
0.79 |
0.81 |
0.79 |
0.78 |
0.77 |
0.78 |
Euro |
CAD per EUR |
1.48 |
1.47 |
1.47 |
1.44 |
1.39 |
1.33 |
1.30 |
1.29 |
1.34 |
1.38 |
1.43 |
1.46 |
UK pound |
CAD per GBP |
1.73 |
1.71 |
1.71 |
1.72 |
1.64 |
1.56 |
1.51 |
1.61 |
1.68 |
1.73 |
1.79 |
1.79 |
Japanese yen |
JPY per CAD |
88.0 |
89.5 |
88.0 |
90.2 |
97.3 |
104.7 |
103.2 |
100.8 |
95.2 |
89.8 |
84.6 |
81.4 |
Chinese renminbi |
CNY per CAD |
5.21 |
5.21 |
5.08 |
4.98 |
5.08 |
5.23 |
5.36 |
5.48 |
5.40 |
5.31 |
5.23 |
5.27 |
Global Stock Markets
*Weighted equity index including both developed and emerging markets.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.
Major Market Indexes |
Price |
30-Day |
YTD |
52-Week |
52-Week |
May-04 |
% Chg. |
% Chg. |
High |
Low |
S&P 500 |
4,300 |
-5.4 |
-9.8 |
4,797 |
4,063 |
S&P/TSX Composite |
21,185 |
-3.5 |
-0.2 |
22,087 |
19,108 |
DAX |
13,971 |
-3.3 |
-12.0 |
16,272 |
12,832 |
FTSE 100 |
7,493 |
-0.6 |
1.5 |
7,672 |
6,844 |
Nikkei |
26,819 |
-3.1 |
-6.9 |
30,670 |
24,718 |
MSCI AC World Index* |
656 |
-7.9 |
-13.1 |
759 |
654 |
Commodity Price Outlook
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022. All forecasts are period averages.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics, USDA (Haver).
Commodity |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) |
58 |
66 |
71 |
77 |
94 |
110 |
115 |
105 |
100 |
95 |
90 |
85 |
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) |
3.56 |
2.94 |
4.36 |
4.77 |
4.66 |
7.74 |
8.71 |
7.50 |
6.00 |
5.00 |
4.50 |
4.00 |
Gold ($US/troy oz.) |
1796 |
1815 |
1790 |
1796 |
1876 |
1870 |
1790 |
1770 |
1779 |
1788 |
1797 |
1806 |
Silver ($US/troy oz.) |
26.25 |
26.71 |
24.30 |
23.35 |
24.05 |
23.00 |
22.50 |
21.00 |
21.11 |
21.21 |
21.32 |
21.42 |
Copper (cents/lb) |
385 |
439 |
425 |
440 |
453 |
430 |
430 |
425 |
427 |
429 |
431 |
434 |
Nickel ($US/lb) |
7.97 |
7.86 |
8.67 |
8.99 |
12.73 |
13.00 |
11.00 |
12.00 |
12.06 |
12.12 |
12.18 |
12.24 |
Aluminum (cents/lb) |
95 |
109 |
120 |
125 |
148 |
150 |
135 |
120 |
121 |
121 |
122 |
122 |
Wheat ($US/bu) |
7.41 |
8.53 |
10.27 |
11.44 |
11.55 |
11.55 |
11.00 |
10.50 |
10.55 |
10.61 |
10.66 |
10.71 |
Canadian Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022.
Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components.
*** BoC Inflation: simple average of CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPI-common.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
21 |
22F |
23F |
21 |
22F |
23F |
Real GDP |
4.4 |
-3.1 |
5.3 |
6.6 |
3.1 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
Consumer Expenditure |
0.9 |
-0.8 |
20.1 |
1.8 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
1.8 |
5.2 |
3.0 |
1.3 |
Durable Goods |
-9.2 |
-7.9 |
-1.9 |
1.2 |
10.8 |
-8.0 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
7.3 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
-4.6 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
Business Investment |
0.6 |
13.5 |
0.4 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
5.6 |
3.7 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
3.3 |
Non-Res. Structures |
15.7 |
9.4 |
4.0 |
13.9 |
12.0 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
-0.3 |
8.1 |
3.9 |
10.7 |
5.9 |
3.7 |
Equipment & IPP* |
-12.1 |
18.1 |
-3.3 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
0.4 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
Residential Investment |
43.9 |
-12.7 |
-30.3 |
12.4 |
18.1 |
-8.0 |
-7.0 |
-5.0 |
-4.0 |
-2.0 |
-1.0 |
0.5 |
15.3 |
-1.9 |
-3.8 |
-0.4 |
-1.0 |
-1.6 |
Govt. Expenditure |
7.6 |
1.1 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
5.6 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
Final Domestic Demand |
6.0 |
-0.3 |
7.3 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
5.6 |
3.7 |
1.8 |
4.1 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
Exports |
2.5 |
-17.1 |
6.6 |
13.6 |
-9.4 |
5.2 |
7.6 |
6.1 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
4.6 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
Imports |
5.6 |
2.4 |
-1.2 |
16.9 |
-2.8 |
2.2 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
7.7 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
5.7 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
Change in Non-farm |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inventories (2012 $Bn) |
-1.7 |
16.1 |
-5.4 |
5.0 |
7.3 |
10.0 |
10.5 |
8.0 |
5.0 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
3.5 |
9.0 |
1.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
7.3 |
-4.4 |
12.1 |
0.6 |
3.8 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
4.7 |
3.1 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
International Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Account Balance ($Bn) |
1.3 |
-1.5 |
5.0 |
-0.5 |
20.1 |
35.8 |
45.2 |
46.9 |
48.5 |
49.2 |
49.6 |
50.5 |
1.1 |
37.0 |
49.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corp. Profits |
85.4 |
-3.5 |
-22.2 |
28.7 |
33.7 |
11.1 |
6.4 |
-11.0 |
-7.3 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
32.3 |
11.2 |
-2.0 |
15.7 |
8.9 |
-0.6 |
% of GDP |
16.0 |
15.6 |
14.3 |
14.7 |
15.2 |
15.1 |
15.0 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
13.9 |
13.9 |
13.9 |
15.1 |
14.9 |
13.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
5.9 |
9.2 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
8.7 |
8.9 |
9.1 |
7.9 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
3.3 |
8.9 |
7.9 |
2.1 |
Nominal GDP |
17.7 |
6.5 |
10.6 |
15.2 |
15.7 |
15.0 |
9.3 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
13.0 |
12.7 |
5.0 |
12.4 |
11.1 |
3.3 |
Labour Force |
-0.9 |
0.2 |
3.7 |
2.3 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
Employment |
1.5 |
2.5 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
3.2 |
4.5 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
0.6 |
4.2 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
67 |
114 |
310 |
289 |
153 |
213 |
68 |
16 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
867 |
751 |
119 |
779 |
450 |
30 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
8.4 |
7.9 |
7.2 |
6.3 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
7.4 |
5.3 |
5.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
11.9 |
6.3 |
-0.1 |
-4.5 |
14.1 |
10.6 |
7.1 |
4.2 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
8.9 |
3.3 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
13.7 |
14.5 |
9.5 |
6.9 |
8.1 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
11.2 |
7.3 |
6.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.4 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
5.8 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
5.5 |
3.6 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
3.4 |
6.7 |
3.5 |
4.7 |
6.7 |
2.2 |
CPIX (y/y)** |
1.4 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
5.7 |
2.5 |
BoC Inflation ( y/y)*** |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
4.7 |
2.2 |
Real GDP / worker (y/y) |
1.4 |
-0.3 |
-1.2 |
-0.9 |
-1.7 |
-0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
1.1 |
-0.9 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022.
* Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual Average |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
Q1F |
Q2F |
Q3F |
Q4F |
21 |
22F |
23F |
21 |
22F |
23F |
Real GDP |
6.3 |
6.7 |
2.3 |
6.9 |
-1.5 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
5.7 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
5.5 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
Consumer Expenditure |
11.4 |
12.0 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
7.9 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
6.9 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
Durable Goods |
50.0 |
11.6 |
-24.6 |
2.5 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
-0.9 |
-4.9 |
-1.7 |
-0.6 |
-0.3 |
0.3 |
18.1 |
-0.3 |
-1.3 |
6.7 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
Business Investment |
12.9 |
9.2 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
9.2 |
1.9 |
4.5 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
7.4 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
6.6 |
4.4 |
1.6 |
Non-Res. Structures |
5.4 |
-3.0 |
-4.1 |
-8.3 |
-3.6 |
-4.5 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
-8.0 |
-3.8 |
0.5 |
-2.6 |
-1.4 |
0.6 |
Equipment & IPP* |
14.8 |
12.3 |
3.0 |
5.7 |
12.4 |
3.5 |
5.3 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
11.6 |
6.7 |
2.3 |
8.9 |
5.8 |
1.8 |
Residential Investment |
13.3 |
-11.7 |
-7.7 |
2.1 |
0.4 |
-12.2 |
-7.7 |
-5.1 |
-2.7 |
-0.8 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
9.2 |
-4.9 |
-3.4 |
-1.5 |
-6.3 |
-0.3 |
Govt. Expenditure |
4.2 |
-2.0 |
0.9 |
-2.6 |
-2.7 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
-1.0 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.9 |
Final Domestic Demand |
10.4 |
8.0 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
6.5 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
5.3 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
Exports |
-2.9 |
7.6 |
-5.3 |
22.4 |
-5.4 |
14.0 |
7.2 |
5.2 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
3.4 |
Imports |
9.3 |
7.1 |
4.7 |
17.9 |
18.3 |
3.6 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
14.0 |
9.8 |
2.6 |
9.6 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
Change in Private |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inventories |
-88.3 |
-168.5 |
-66.8 |
193.2 |
149.6 |
99.0 |
88.1 |
94.2 |
95.2 |
95.9 |
92.6 |
89.2 |
-32.6 |
107.7 |
93.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Final Sales |
9.1 |
8.1 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
-0.4 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
5.3 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
4.6 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
International Current |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Account Balance ($Bn) |
-750 |
-785 |
-879 |
-872 |
-1122 |
-1020 |
-1010 |
-1022 |
-1017 |
-995 |
-963 |
-946 |
-822 |
-1044 |
-980 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
% of GDP |
-3.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.8 |
-3.6 |
-4.6 |
-4.1 |
-4.0 |
-4.0 |
-3.9 |
-3.8 |
-3.6 |
-3.5 |
-3.6 |
-4.2 |
-3.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pre-tax Corporate Profits |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
including IVA&CCA |
22.0 |
49.1 |
14.5 |
2.8 |
-8.7 |
-29.2 |
14.9 |
0.3 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
25.1 |
-2.4 |
1.1 |
21.0 |
-7.1 |
2.9 |
% of GDP |
11.6 |
12.4 |
12.6 |
12.2 |
11.8 |
10.6 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.6 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
12.2 |
10.9 |
10.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
GDP Deflator (y/y) |
2.1 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
5.9 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
7.2 |
6.3 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
4.2 |
6.9 |
3.5 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
2.6 |
Nominal GDP |
10.9 |
13.4 |
8.4 |
14.5 |
6.5 |
9.3 |
8.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
10.1 |
9.2 |
4.9 |
11.8 |
7.2 |
4.0 |
Labor Force |
-0.7 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
5.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
Employment |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
1.0 |
4.3 |
2.9 |
0.4 |
Change in Empl. ('000s) |
1262 |
1453 |
1695 |
1759 |
1721 |
1472 |
720 |
464 |
239 |
110 |
105 |
87 |
3957 |
5831 |
1472 |
6169 |
4377 |
541 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
6.2 |
5.9 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
5.4 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Personal Disp. Income |
60.6 |
-24.5 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
-0.2 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
6.2 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
5.6 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
Pers. Savings Rate (%) |
20.5 |
10.9 |
9.5 |
7.9 |
5.6 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
12.2 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cons. Price Index (y/y) |
1.9 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
6.7 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
7.0 |
5.3 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
4.7 |
7.9 |
3.3 |
6.7 |
7.0 |
2.2 |
Core CPI (y/y) |
1.4 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
5.0 |
6.3 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
5.8 |
3.1 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
2.4 |
Core PCE Price Index (y/y) |
1.7 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
4.9 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
2.2 |
Housing Starts (mns) |
1.58 |
1.59 |
1.57 |
1.68 |
1.72 |
1.65 |
1.63 |
1.61 |
1.58 |
1.56 |
1.54 |
1.54 |
1.61 |
1.65 |
1.55 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Real Output per hour** (y/y) |
3.9 |
2.2 |
-0.4 |
1.9 |
-0.6 |
-2.1 |
-1.0 |
-2.4 |
-0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
-1.5 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
-2.4 |
0.9 |
Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe
*Share of 2019 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast as at June 2022.
Source: National statistics agencies, TD Economics.
|
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022F |
2023F |
Real GDP (annual per cent change) |
G7 (30.1%)* |
-5.0 |
5.1 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
|
U.S. |
-3.4 |
5.7 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
|
Japan |
-4.5 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
|
Euro Area |
-6.5 |
5.4 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
|
Germany |
-4.9 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
|
France |
-8.0 |
7.0 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
|
Italy |
-9.1 |
6.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
|
United Kingdom |
-9.3 |
7.4 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
|
Canada |
-5.2 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
Consumer Price Index (annual per cent change) |
G7 |
0.9 |
3.3 |
6.8 |
3.3 |
|
U.S. |
1.2 |
4.7 |
7.9 |
3.3 |
|
Japan |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
|
Euro Area |
0.3 |
2.6 |
7.2 |
3.6 |
|
Germany |
0.4 |
3.2 |
7.3 |
3.5 |
|
France |
0.5 |
2.1 |
5.3 |
2.9 |
|
Italy |
-0.1 |
1.9 |
6.6 |
3.2 |
|
United Kingdom |
0.9 |
2.6 |
8.4 |
5.7 |
|
Canada |
0.7 |
3.4 |
6.7 |
3.5 |
Unemployment Rate (per cent annual averages) |
|
U.S. |
8.1 |
5.4 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
|
Japan |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
|
Euro Area |
8.0 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
|
Germany |
5.9 |
5.7 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
France |
8.0 |
7.9 |
7.2 |
7.5 |
|
Italy |
9.3 |
9.5 |
8.4 |
8.7 |
|
United Kingdom |
4.5 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
|
Canada |
9.6 |
7.4 |
5.3 |
5.8 |
Global Economic Outlook
[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated
*Share of world GDP on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis.
Forecast as at June 2022. **Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: IMF, TD Economics.
2019 Share* |
Forecast |
Real GDP |
(%) |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
World |
100.0 |
6.1 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
North America |
19.2 |
5.5 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
United States |
15.8 |
5.7 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
Canada |
1.4 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
Mexico |
1.9 |
5.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
European Union (EU-28) |
15.4 |
5.3 |
2.7 |
1.4 |
Euro Area (EU-19) |
12.5 |
5.4 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
Germany |
3.5 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
France |
2.4 |
7.0 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
Italy |
2.0 |
6.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
United Kingdom |
2.4 |
7.4 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
EU accession members |
2.9 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
Asia |
43.2 |
6.6 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
Japan |
4.1 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
Asian NIC's |
3.5 |
5.3 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
Hong Kong |
0.3 |
6.4 |
1.0 |
3.4 |
Korea |
1.7 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
Singapore |
0.4 |
7.6 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
Taiwan |
0.9 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
Russia |
3.1 |
4.8 |
-9.8 |
-3.3 |
Australia & New Zealand |
1.2 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
Emerging Asia |
31.4 |
7.6 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
ASEAN-5 |
5.7 |
3.3 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
China |
17.3 |
8.4 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
India** |
7.1 |
9.0 |
8.2 |
6.6 |
Central/South America |
5.6 |
7.6 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
Brazil |
2.4 |
5.0 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
Other Emerging Markets |
13.0 |
5.7 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
Other Advanced |
1.1 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
2.3 |
Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook
[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]
*Intellectual property products. F: Forecast by TD Economics as at June 2022.
**Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator |
Annual Average |
Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter |
21 |
22F |
23F |
24F |
25F |
26F |
27F |
21 |
22F |
23F |
24F |
25F |
26F |
27F |
Real GDP |
5.7 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
5.5 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
Consumer Expenditure |
7.9 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
6.9 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
Durable Goods |
18.1 |
-0.3 |
-1.3 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
6.7 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
Business Investment |
7.4 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
6.6 |
4.4 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
Non-Res. Structures |
-8.0 |
-3.8 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
-2.6 |
-1.4 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
Equipment & IPP* |
11.6 |
6.7 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
8.9 |
5.8 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
Residential Investment |
9.2 |
-4.9 |
-3.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
-1.5 |
-6.3 |
-0.3 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
Govt. Expenditure |
0.5 |
-1.0 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
Final Domestic Demand |
6.5 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
|