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Interest Rate Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, November 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Interest Rates 2024 2025 2026
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Canada                        
Overnight Target Rate  5.00 4.75 4.25 3.50 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
3-mth T-Bill Rate  4.99 4.64 3.96 3.25 2.88 2.63 2.38 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.17 3.99 2.91 3.05 2.80 2.55 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.51 3.51 2.73 3.05 3.00 2.90 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.45 3.50 2.95 3.20 3.25 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.37 3.37 3.14 3.25 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread -0.72 -0.49 0.04 0.15 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65
U.S.                         
Fed Funds Target Rate  5.50 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00
3-mth T-Bill Rate  5.23 5.22 4.52 4.45 4.05 3.80 3.55 3.30 3.00 2.90 2.90 2.90
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.59 4.71 3.66 4.25 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.21 4.33 3.58 4.20 4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.20 4.36 3.81 4.30 4.30 4.10 3.95 3.75 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.34 4.51 4.14 4.45 4.50 4.40 4.25 4.05 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread -0.39 -0.35 0.15 0.05 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.50 0.70 0.70 0.70
Canada - U.S. Spreads                        
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread -0.24 -0.58 -0.56 -1.20 -1.17 -1.17 -1.17 -1.05 -0.75 -0.65 -0.65 -0.65
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread -0.75 -0.86 -0.86 -1.10 -1.05 -1.00 -0.95 -0.75 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70

 

Foreign Exchange Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, November 2024. All forecasts are end-of-period. Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Currency Exchange Rate 2024 2025 2026
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Exchange Rate to U.S. Dollar                        
 Euro USD per EUR 1.08 1.07 1.12 1.07 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.14
 UK Pound USD per GBP 1.26 1.26 1.34 1.29 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30
 Japanese Yen JPY per USD 151.2 160.9 143.3 152.0 151.0 149.5 148.0 146.5 145.8 145.1 144.3 143.6
 Chinese Renminbi CNY per USD 7.22 7.27 7.02 7.20 7.15 7.10 7.05 7.00 6.95 6.90 6.85 6.80
Exchange Rate to Canadian Dollar                        
 U.S. Dollar USD per CAD 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75
 Euro CAD per EUR 1.46 1.47 1.51 1.49 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.51
 UK Pound CAD per GBP 1.71 1.73 1.81 1.79 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.78 1.77 1.76 1.74 1.73
 Japanese Yen JPY per CAD 111.7 117.6 106.0 109.4 107.9 107.5 107.2 106.9 107.2 107.4 107.7 108.0
 Chinese Renminbi CNY per CAD 5.34 5.31 5.19 5.18 5.11 5.10 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11 5.11

Global Stock Markets

*Weighted equity index including both developed and emerging markets. Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics.

Major Market Indexes Price 30-Day YTD 52-Week 52-Week
Aug-23 % Chg. % Chg.  High Low
S&P 500 5,605 0.9 17.5 5,667 4,117
S&P/TSX Composite 23,177 1.6 10.6 23,177 18,737
DAX 18,579 0.1 10.9 18,869 14,687
FTSE 100 8,315 1.8 7.5 8,446 7,291
Nikkei 38,364 -3.1 14.6 42,224 30,527
MSCI AC World Index* 823 0.8 13.2 831 629

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024. All forecasts are period averages. Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics, USDA (Haver). 

Commodity 2024 2025 2026
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 77 81 77 76 75 76 77 78 78 78 79 79
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 2.23 2.07 2.20 2.50 2.90 3.10 3.10 3.30 3.32 3.33 3.35 3.37
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 2072 2336 2430 2475 2495 2450 2400 2375 2387 2399 2411 2423
Silver ($US/troy oz.) 23.37 28.87 28.75 29.50 32.00 31.50 31.00 30.50 30.65 30.81 30.96 31.11
Copper (cents/lb) 383 442 413 420 435 435 435 435 437 439 442 444
Nickel ($US/lb) 7.52 8.35 7.40 7.53 7.70 7.60 7.60 7.50 7.54 7.58 7.61 7.65
Aluminum (cents/lb) 100 114 107 111 112 112 115 115 116 116 117 117
Wheat ($US/bu) 5.87 6.04 5.50 5.60 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.83 5.86 5.89 5.92

 

Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024. Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.                           
* Intellectual Property Products.
** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components.
*** BoC Inflation: Simple average of CPI-trim and CPI-median.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics.

Economic Indicators 2024 2025 2026 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 24F 25F 26F 24F 25F 26F
 Real GDP 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.2
 Consumer Expenditure 3.6 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.9
Durable Goods             2.0 -7.9 5.0 3.0 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 0.4 1.3 1.6
 Business Investment 3.5 8.8 -7.1 2.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 -1.6 2.2 3.1 1.7 3.4 2.8
Non-Res. Structures 3.7 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 -2.2 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 3.2 16.1 -16.0 1.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 -1.0 0.9 2.9 0.5 3.1 2.7
 Residential Investment -0.1 -7.3 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 -0.4 3.5 3.5 -0.2 4.3 3.1
 Govt. Expenditure 2.5 6.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.0 3.5 2.2 2.0
 Final Domestic Demand 3.1 2.4 0.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
 Exports                   2.0 -1.8 2.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 1.1 2.9 3.0 1.6 3.2 2.9
 Imports                   0.1 -0.5 -2.7 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.0 3.0 2.7
 Change in Non-Farm                                    
 Inventories (2012, $Bn) 28.4 24.0 20.0 17.8 16.6 15.1 14.1 13.6 13.6 14.1 15.1 15.6 22.5 14.9 14.6 -- -- --
 Final Sales 5.5 2.7 1.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.9 2.2 2.0
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -21.5 -33.9 -5.2 -8.1 -11.6 -9.6 -6.0 -2.9 -0.3 2.0 3.9 5.5 -17.2 -7.5 2.8 -- -- --
% of GDP  -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 -- -- --
 Pre-Tax Corp. Profits -34.4 15.1 2.2 4.6 6.2 3.3 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 -3.5 5.3 5.7 -5.2 5.3 5.8
% of GDP  11.8 12.0 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 11.9 12.1 12.2 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 3.5 3.9 3.0 2.0 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.3
 Nominal GDP  0.3 7.1 4.3 3.5 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 3.9 4.4 3.8 3.8 4.6
 Labour Force 2.0 4.1 1.9 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.7 1.3 0.3 2.5 0.5 0.3
 Employment  1.5 2.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.7
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  76 120 22 58 41 58 43 38 39 39 39 39 327 200 161 276 180 156
 Unemployment Rate (%)  5.9 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.3 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  6.8 6.1 4.8 2.9 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.2 6.2 2.9 2.5 5.1 2.1 2.8
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  6.7 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 7.1 6.8 5.6 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1
 CPIX (y/y)** 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0
 BoC Inflation (y/y)*** 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts ('000s) 245 250 249 239 234 236 240 243 248 252 256 257 246 238 253 -- -- --
 Home Prices (y/y) 4.3 -2.8 0.4 3.7 5.8 6.8 7.7 7.2 5.1 3.5 3.0 2.8 1.3 6.9 3.6 3.7 7.2 2.8
 Real GDP / Worker (y/y) -1.1 -0.9 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 -0.5 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.9 1.4

 

U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Intellectual Property Products.
** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.

Economic Indicators 2024 2025 2026 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 24F 25F 26F 24F 25F 26F
 Real GDP 1.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.2
 Consumer Expenditure 1.5 2.9 3.5 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.8 2.5 1.5 2.0
Durable Goods             -4.4 4.9 9.0 2.6 -0.4 1.0 1.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 1.3 3.0
 Business Investment 4.4 4.6 3.7 2.7 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8
Non-Res. Structures 3.4 -1.6 0.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.2 3.1 3.0 1.9 3.2 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 4.8 6.4 4.7 1.8 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.9 5.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.4 4.4 3.9 4.1
 Residential Investment 16.0 -2.1 -13.0 -1.5 6.0 10.0 11.8 13.7 11.4 9.1 6.7 4.4 2.7 3.4 10.3 -0.7 10.3 7.9
 Govt. Expenditure 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.1 1.1 0.3 2.0 0.5 0.2
 Final Domestic Demand 2.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.2
 Exports                   1.6 1.6 4.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.4 2.9 3.5
 Imports                   6.1 7.0 7.0 4.4 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.4 3.4 2.6 6.1 2.2 2.8
 Change in Private                                    
 Inventories 28.6 69.0 66.1 65.1 59.3 57.2 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 57.2 56.6 55.0 -- -- --
 Final Sales 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.2
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn) -951 -1024 -1029 -1099 -1103 -1112 -1107 -1106 -1092 -1099 -1095 -1088 -1026 -1107 -1093 -- -- --
% of GDP  -3.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.8 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.4 -3.6 -3.7 -3.5 -- -- --
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 Including IVA&CCA -5.4 7.0 8.7 -4.9 -4.7 6.1 5.5 5.9 9.8 5.6 7.7 7.1 5.5 1.5 7.1 1.1 3.1 7.5
% of GDP  11.9 12.0 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.9 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3
 Nominal GDP  4.5 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.2 4.0 4.4 4.5 5.2 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.5
 Labor Force -0.6 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7
 Employment  2.0 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.7
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  771 576 377 333 295 356 360 360 300 270 270 270 2459 1414 1244 2057 1371 1110
 Unemployment Rate (%)  3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.0 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  4.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 5.6 4.9 4.8 5.0 3.8 3.9 4.8 3.9 4.1 5.1
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.0 3.9 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.1 2.3 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.4 2.3 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 -- -- --
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.6

 

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Share of 2022 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Source: National Statistics Agencies, TD Economics.

  2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 (42.4%)* 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8
  U.S. 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.3
  Japan 1.7 0.2 1.5 0.8
  Euro Area 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.3
  Germany -0.1 0.0 1.0 1.3
  France 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6
  Italy 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.8
  United Kingdom 0.1 1.1 1.4 1.5
  Canada 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.0
Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.0
  U.S. 4.1 3.1 2.3 2.2
  Japan 3.3 2.2 1.5 1.5
  Euro Area 5.4 2.5 2.1 2.0
  Germany 6.0 2.4 2.0 2.0
  France 5.7 2.5 1.9 2.0
  Italy 5.9 1.2 1.8 1.7
  United Kingdom 7.3 2.6 2.4 2.1
  Canada 3.9 2.5 2.1 2.1
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages)
  U.S. 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.0
  Japan 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3
  Euro Area 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4
  Germany 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.8
  France 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.2
  Italy 7.7 7.2 7.7 7.6
  United Kingdom 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.3
  Canada 5.4 6.4 6.7 6.3
 

Global Economic Outlook

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Share of 2022 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: International Monetary Fund, TD Economics.

2022 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2024F 2025F 2026F
World 100.0 3.2 3.1 3.1
North America 18.9 2.4 1.9 2.2
   United States 15.5 2.6 1.9 2.3
   Canada 1.4 1.1 1.7 2.0
   Mexico 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.0
European Union (EU-27) 14.9 1.0 1.6 1.5
   Euro Area (EU-20) 12.0 0.8 1.3 1.3
        Germany 3.3 0.0 1.0 1.3
        France  2.3 1.2 1.2 1.6
        Italy 1.9 0.8 1.1 0.8
   Other EU Members 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.4
Asia 45.0 4.4 4.2 4.1
   Japan 3.8 0.2 1.5 0.8
   Asian NIC's 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.5
        Hong Kong 0.3 3.2 2.4 2.6
        Korea 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.5
        Singapore  0.4 2.5 2.2 2.5
        Taiwan 1.0 3.9 2.7 2.4
   Russia 2.9 3.8 2.2 1.8
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 1.2 2.3 2.5
   Emerging Asia 32.8 5.3 5.0 4.9
        ASEAN-5 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.1
        China 18.4 4.9 4.4 4.3
        India** 7.3 6.5 6.7 6.5
Central/South America 5.4 1.6 2.4 2.4
   Brazil 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.2
Other Emerging Markets 12.7 3.2 3.7 3.4
Other Advanced 3.4 1.3 1.7 3.2
   United Kingdom 2.3 1.1 1.4 1.5

 


Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Intellectual property products.
** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.

Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F
 Real GDP 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
 Consumer Expenditure 2.5 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2
Durable Goods             2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 1.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Business Investment 3.9 3.4 4.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Non-Res. Structures 5.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.9 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Equipment & IPP* 3.6 3.5 4.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.4 3.9 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
 Residential Investment 2.7 3.4 10.3 4.3 1.9 1.4 1.3 -0.7 10.3 7.9 3.0 1.5 1.3 1.3
 Govt. Expenditure 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
 Final Domestic Demand 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0
 Exports                   2.3 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
 Imports                   4.4 3.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.1 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.1
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories 57.2 56.6 55.0 54.9 54.8 54.7 54.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0
 International Current                            
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -1025.5 -1107.0 -1093.1 -1076.5 -1059.7 -1020.9 -955.8 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
% of GDP  -3.6 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1 -2.9 -2.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits                            
 Including IVA&CCA 5.5 1.5 7.1 5.6 4.1 5.3 7.2 1.1 3.1 7.5 4.4 4.4 6.1 7.8
% of GDP  11.9 11.6 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
 Nominal GDP  5.2 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3
 Labor Force 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
 Employment  1.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  2,459 1,414 1,244 1,079 1,080 1,080 1,080 2,057 1,371 1,110 1,079 1,080 1,080 1,080
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  3.8 3.9 4.8 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.8 3.9 4.1 5.1 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.7
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.1 3.0 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.5 7.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 3.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 3.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6

Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2024.
* Intellectual Property Products.
** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components.
*** BoC Inflation: Avg. of CPI-trim and CPI-median. Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.

            Economic Indicator                 Annual Average 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter
24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F
  Real GDP 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
Consumer Expenditure 1.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7
Durable Goods             1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
Business Investment -1.6 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8
Non-Res. Structures -2.2 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 3.0 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8
Equipment & IPP* -1.0 0.9 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 0.5 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8
Residential Investment -0.4 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 -0.2 4.3 3.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8
Govt. Expenditure 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
    Final Domestic Demand 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
Exports                   1.1 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
Imports                   0.3 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 0.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
Change in Non-Farm                            
Inventories (2012 $Bn) 22.5 14.9 14.6 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.7 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
   Final Sales 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
International Current                            
Account Balance ($Bn)  -17.2 -7.5 2.8 6.8 8.8 10.8 12.7 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
% of GDP  -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Pre-Tax Corp. Profits -3.5 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.7 4.5 -5.2 5.3 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.4
% of GDP  11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  GDP Deflator (y/y) 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Nominal GDP  4.3 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8
  Labour Force 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7
  Employment  1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
  Change in Empl. ('000s)  327 200 161 169 169 170 162 276 180 156 171 173 167 160
  Unemployment Rate (%)  6.4 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Personal Disp. Income  6.2 2.9 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
  Pers. Savings Rate (%)  7.1 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.9 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  CPIX (y/y) ** 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  BoC Inflation (y/y) *** 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Housing Starts ('000s) 245.9 238.1 253.4 258.0 256.5 253.6 252.6 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Home Prices (y/y) 1.3 6.9 3.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.7 7.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
  Real GDP / Worker (y/y) -0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0

 

Long-Term Interest Rates

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, November 2024. *Upper bound of target range. Note: Annual averages are the average of the four quarterly end-of-period forecasts.
Source: Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, TD Economics.
Interest Rates Annual Average End of Period
23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F 23 24F 25F 26F 27F 28F 29F
U.S. FIXED INCOME                            
   Fed Funds Target Rate (%)* 5.30 5.15 3.90 3.05 3.00 3.00 3.00 5.50 4.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 5.10 4.85 3.70 2.95 2.90 2.90 2.90 5.20 4.45 3.30 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.55 4.30 3.70 3.05 3.00 3.00 3.00 4.23 4.25 3.40 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.05 4.10 3.90 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.84 4.20 3.60 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45
   10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.95 4.15 4.05 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.88 4.30 3.75 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) -0.60 -0.15 0.35 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70 -0.35 0.05 0.35 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70
CANADIAN FIXED INCOME                            
   Overnight Target Rate (%) 4.80 4.40 2.65 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 5.00 3.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 4.85 4.20 2.55 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 5.04 3.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.25 3.55 2.50 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 3.88 3.05 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.35
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.55 3.20 2.85 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.17 3.05 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
  10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.30 3.30 3.10 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) -0.95 -0.25 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 -0.78 0.15 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65

 


Home Sales and Price Outlook

[Annual Average Growth, %]

Source: CREA, CMHC, TD Economics. Forecasts by TD Economics as of September 2024.

Provinces Home Sales Home Prices
2024F 2025F 2026F 2024F 2025F 2026F
National 5.4 16.6 4.4 1.3 6.9 3.6
Newfoundland & Labrador 2.2 7.7 4.5 8.1 4.9 2.1
Prince Edward Island 2.8 5.0 3.6 2.0 3.6 2.4
Nova Scotia 5.3 13.1 3.8 5.1 3.7 2.4
New Brunswick 3.2 9.8 3.2 9.0 4.6 3.1
Québec 13.9 9.5 1.7 6.3 5.5 3.1
Ontario 1.5 23.9 5.9 -0.4 4.6 3.1
Manitoba 9.4 7.6 2.9 5.9 6.0 3.3
Saskatchewan 6.7 11.0 4.5 5.1 6.2 4.3
Alberta 9.9 8.5 2.5 9.8 7.0 3.6
British Columbia -0.1 23.2 6.4 1.4 3.7 2.8

 

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