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Interest Rate Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Interest Rates 2026 2027 2028
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Canada                        
Overnight Target Rate  2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
3-mth T-Bill Rate  2.31 2.26 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  2.82 2.74 3.30 3.10 2.80 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.09 3.01 3.60 3.50 3.35 3.30 3.15 3.05 3.00 3.00 2.95 2.95
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.46 3.38 3.90 3.70 3.55 3.40 3.35 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.89 3.78 4.25 4.00 3.85 3.70 3.65 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 0.64 0.64 0.60 0.60 0.75 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70
U.S.                         
Fed Funds Target Rate  3.75 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
3-mth T-Bill Rate  3.61 3.74 4.05 4.15 4.15 4.05 3.80 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.55
2-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.79 4.14 4.60 4.40 4.10 3.90 3.80 3.65 3.60 3.55 3.50 3.40
5-yr Govt. Bond Yield  3.92 4.19 4.75 4.55 4.30 4.20 4.05 3.95 3.90 3.90 3.85 3.85
10-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.30 4.44 4.90 4.70 4.55 4.40 4.35 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.20
30-yr Govt. Bond Yield  4.88 4.91 5.30 5.10 4.95 4.80 4.75 4.65 4.65 4.65 4.65 4.60
10-yr-2-yr Govt Spread 0.51 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80
Canada - U.S. Spreads                        
Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread -1.30 -1.48 -1.80 -1.90 -1.90 -1.80 -1.55 -1.40 -1.40 -1.40 -1.40 -1.30
Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread -0.84 -1.06 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -0.95 -0.95 -0.95 -0.95 -0.90

 

Foreign Exchange Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. All forecasts are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, TD Economics.
Currency Exchange Rate 2026 2027 2028
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Exchange Rate to U.S.                          
 Euro USD per EUR 1.15 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
 UK Pound USD per GBP 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39
 Japanese Yen JPY per USD 159.1 162.6 155.5 155.3 154.7 154.1 153.5 152.9 152.3 151.7 150.9 150.1
 Chinese Renminbi CNY per USD 6.90 6.79 6.74 6.69 6.64 6.59 6.54 6.49 6.44 6.80 6.80 6.80
Exchange Rate to Can                          
 U.S. Dollar USD per CAD 0.72 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74
 Euro CAD per EUR 1.61 1.62 1.60 1.61 1.61 1.63 1.63 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.62 1.61
 UK Pound CAD per GBP 1.84 1.88 1.87 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.91 1.90 1.89 1.88 1.88 1.87
 Japanese Yen JPY per CAD 114.0 114.5 111.5 111.8 111.3 110.9 111.2 112.0 112.0 111.9 111.8 111.6
 Chinese Renminbi CNY per CAD 4.95 4.78 4.83 4.81 4.77 4.74 4.74 4.76 4.73 5.02 5.04 5.05

 

Commodity Price Outlook

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. All forecasts are period averages.
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics, USDA (Haver).
Commodity 2026 2027 2028
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F
Crude Oil (WTI, $US/bbl) 73 93 86 94 85 79 76 75 75 76 76 77
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 4.71 2.95 2.85 3.15 3.35 3.25 3.15 3.15 3.17 3.18 3.20 3.21
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 4865 4512 4300 4400 4650 4850 4850 4750 4774 4798 4822 4846
Silver ($US/troy oz.) 83.71 73.29 63.00 65.00 70.00 72.00 72.00 70.00 70.35 70.70 71.06 71.41
Copper (cents/lb) 582 603 645 615 590 600 610 610 613 616 619 622
Nickel ($US/lb) 7.87 8.21 7.60 7.50 7.75 7.75 7.95 7.95 7.99 8.03 8.07 8.11
Aluminum (cents/lb) 145 162 148 144 137 136 134 134 135 135 136 137
Wheat ($US/bu) 5.50 6.08 6.77 6.75 6.85 6.90 6.95 7.00 7.04 7.07 7.11 7.14


Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI excluding the 8 most volatile components.
*** BoC Inflation: Simple average of CPI-trim and CPI-median.
Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators 2026 2027 2028 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 26F 27F 28F 26F 27F 28F
 Real GDP 0.3 3.3 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.8
 Consumer Expenditure 2.4 3.3 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.7 2.4 1.6 1.7
Durable Goods             -4.1 6.9 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 -0.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6
 Business Investment -1.1 8.7 -0.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2
Non-Res. Structures -11.8 6.5 4.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 -0.9 3.4 2.5 0.3 2.9 2.3
Equipment & IPP* 10.2 11.1 -5.0 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 3.7 1.9 2.2 4.4 2.4 2.1
 Residential Investment -10.6 10.4 2.0 -1.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 -2.0 1.0 1.1 -0.2 0.7 1.2
 Govt. Expenditure -1.7 1.4 2.7 1.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.1 0.9 2.3 2.0
 Final Domestic Demand -0.1 3.9 2.3 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8
 Exports                   1.3 15.1 -2.5 0.2 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.9 2.6 3.3 2.3 2.5
 Imports                   13.1 1.1 3.5 1.8 2.6 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.9 4.8 2.9 2.8
 Change in Non-Farm                                    
 Inventories (2012, $Bn) 7.6 -15.2 -9.7 -8.7 -8.5 -8.0 -7.5 -7.0 -6.5 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 -6.5 -7.8 -5.8 -- -- --
 Final Sales -3.7 8.3 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7
 International Current                                    
 Account Balance ($Bn)  -33.2 35.3 14.2 25.3 22.2 20.7 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 10.4 20.8 19.5 -- -- --
% of GDP  -1.0 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 -- -- --
 Pre-Tax Corp. Profits 10.8 75.6 -5.3 5.7 -13.0 -10.1 -4.5 -1.1 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.4 17.3 -2.4 -1.1 18.1 -7.3 0.8
% of GDP  14.7 16.3 16.1 16.1 15.4 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.0 15.8 14.8 14.1 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 3.1 5.8 4.5 4.7 4.0 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 4.5 2.7 1.9 4.7 2.0 2.0
 Nominal GDP  5.5 13.8 0.2 5.7 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 5.5 4.3 3.7 6.2 3.7 3.8
 Labour Force -1.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.8
 Employment  -1.0 0.5 1.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.1
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  -52 28 89 2 30 44 46 55 59 60 60 65 114 153 226 68 175 245
 Unemployment Rate (%)  6.6 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.6 6.4 6.0 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  4.5 8.8 4.8 2.7 3.3 3.9 3.3 4.1 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.4 3.9 3.8 5.2 3.6 3.8
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.3 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.1 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.9 2.5 1.9 3.2 1.9 2.0
 CPIX (y/y)** 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0
 BoC Inflation (y/y)*** 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts ('000s) 242 256 229 242 232 222 225 227 229 230 231 232 242 227 230 -- -- --
 Home Prices (y/y) -1.4 1.4 0.3 0.2 3.6 1.1 0.3 1.6 2.5 3.1 3.6 3.8 0.1 1.7 3.3 0.2 1.6 3.8
 Real GDP / Worker (y/y) -0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6

 

U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. * Intellectual Property Products. ** Non-farm business sector.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicators 2026 2027 2028 Annual Average 4th Qtr/4th Qtr
Q1 Q2 Q3F Q4F Q1 Q2F Q3F Q4F Q1F Q2F Q3F Q4F 26F 27F 28F 26F 27F 28F
 Real GDP 2.1 1.5 2.8 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0
 Consumer Expenditure 0.5 3.4 3.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.1
Durable Goods             0.5 5.7 2.0 1.2 1.5 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.3 2.5 3.5
 Business Investment 10.6 8.5 9.5 7.1 5.9 5.9 5.3 4.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 7.2 6.6 3.9 8.9 5.5 3.1
Non-Res. Structures -4.7 -1.8 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 -4.2 -1.0 0.7 -2.4 -0.5 1.5
Equipment & IPP* 14.7 11.0 12.2 9.0 7.5 7.5 6.5 6.0 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.1 10.1 8.3 4.6 11.7 6.9 3.5
 Residential Investment -7.8 1.2 -6.1 0.0 2.8 4.3 3.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 -4.1 1.5 3.3 -3.2 3.5 3.2
 Govt. Expenditure 4.4 -1.0 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.3
 Final Domestic Demand 2.2 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.0
 Exports                   10.9 4.5 -4.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.6 2.0 2.9 3.4 2.7 3.0
 Imports                   11.8 12.5 8.0 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.0 4.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.4 6.4 3.4 9.6 5.3 2.6
 Change in Private Inventories -16.7 -53.1 1.3 6.7 16.7 26.7 36.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 -15.4 31.7 46.7 -- -- --
 Final Sales 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Pre-tax Corporate Profits                                    
 Including IVA&CCA 7.0 41.5 8.7 9.6 6.2 8.9 8.1 6.5 4.9 4.5 3.0 2.9 17.9 9.8 5.4 15.9 7.4 3.8
% of GDP  13.9 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.5 14.7 15.4 15.6 -- -- --
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 3.3 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.8 2.5 2.2 3.6 2.2 2.2
 Nominal GDP  5.8 8.0 4.7 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 6.0 4.7 4.4 5.9 4.4 4.2
 Labor Force -2.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.9 0.3 0.4
 Non-Farm Employment  0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3
 Change in Non-Farm Empl. ('000s)  129 291 194 237 158 135 130 130 120 100 101 100 494 704 467 851 553 421
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 -- -- --
 Personal Disp. Income  5.6 3.7 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.1 5.0 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.0
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 3.0 3.6 4.6 -- -- --
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.7 3.8 3.4 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.3 2.0 2.0 3.4 1.6 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.3 2.3 2.0 3.3 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.42 1.34 1.28 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.40 1.42 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.34 1.37 1.44 -- -- --
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.9 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6

 

Economic Indicators: G7 & Europe

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. * Share of 2024 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP.
Source: National Statistics Agencies, TD Economics.
  2026F 2027F 2028F
Real GDP (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 1.5 1.6 1.6
  U.S. 2.2 2.1 2.1
  Japan 0.9 0.8 0.4
  Euro Area 1.0 1.3 1.1
  Germany 1.0 1.0 0.9
  France 0.4 0.7 1.0
  Italy 1.0 0.9 0.8
  United Kingdom 1.2 1.2 1.5
  Canada 0.9 1.6 1.8
Consumer Price Index (Annual Per Cent Change)
G7 2.3 2.2 2.0
  U.S. 3.3 2.0 2.0
  Japan 1.8 2.0 2.0
  Euro Area 2.8 2.0 2.2
  Germany 2.6 2.5 2.0
  France 2.2 2.0 2.0
  Italy 2.7 2.4 2.0
  United Kingdom 3.2 2.7 2.0
  Canada 2.9 2.5 1.9
Unemployment Rate (Per Cent Annual Averages)
  U.S. 4.2 4.0 4.0
  Japan 2.5 2.4 2.3
  Euro Area 6.3 6.2 6.2
  Germany 6.3 6.1 6.0
  France 8.3 8.0 7.9
  Italy 5.6 5.5 5.5
  United Kingdom 5.1 5.2 5.2
  Canada 6.6 6.4 6.0
 

Global Economic Outlook

[Annual Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. * Share of 2024 world gross domestic product (GDP) at PPP. Forecast for India refers to fiscal year.
Source: International Monetary Fund, TD Economics.
2024 Share* Forecast
Real GDP (%) 2026F 2027F 2028F
World 100.0 3.1 3.1 2.9
North America 17.9 2.0 2.2 2.2
   United States 14.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
   Canada 1.3 0.9 1.6 1.8
   Mexico 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.1
European Union (EU-27) 14.2 1.3 1.5 1.4
   Euro Area (EU-20) 12.2 1.0 1.3 1.1
        Germany 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
        France  2.2 0.4 0.7 1.0
        Italy 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.8
   Other EU Members 3.8 3.3 2.4 2.2
Asia 46.9 4.6 4.2 4.1
   Japan 3.3 0.9 0.8 0.4
   Asian NIC's 3.5 5.6 2.6 2.4
        Hong Kong 0.3 4.3 2.2 2.4
        Korea 1.6 3.5 2.3 2.4
        Singapore  0.5 5.1 2.5 2.4
        Taiwan 0.9 10.9 3.8 2.1
   Russia 3.5 0.2 1.4 1.5
   Australia & New Zealand 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.2
   Emerging Asia 35.7 5.3 5.0 4.9
        ASEAN-5 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0
        China 19.3 4.5 4.4 3.9
        India** 8.2 7.2 6.4 6.1
Central/South America 5.3 2.2 2.3 2.4
   Brazil 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2
Other Emerging Markets 12.8 1.4 2.8 3.0
Other Advanced 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2
   United Kingdom 2.2 1.2 1.2 1.5

 

Long-Term U.S. Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026.
* Intellectual property products. ** Non-farm business sector. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, TD Economics.
Economic Indicator Annual Average Fourth Quarter / Fourth Quarter
26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 32F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 32F
 Real GDP 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Consumer Expenditure 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2
Durable Goods             1.9 2.2 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
 Business Investment 7.2 6.6 3.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 8.9 5.5 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Non-Res. Structures -4.2 -1.0 0.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 -2.4 -0.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Equipment & IPP* 10.1 8.3 4.6 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 11.7 6.9 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
 Residential Investment -4.1 1.5 3.3 3.1 1.9 1.5 1.7 -3.2 3.5 3.2 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7
 Govt. Expenditure 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
 Final Domestic Demand 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
 Exports                   3.6 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
 Imports                   3.4 6.4 3.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 9.6 5.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
 Change in Private                            
 Inventories -15.4 31.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 46.7 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Final Sales 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits                            
 Including IVA&CCA 17.9 9.8 5.4 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.0 15.9 7.4 3.8 2.8 3.9 4.7 5.1
% of GDP  14.7 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.4 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 GDP Deflator (y/y) 3.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 3.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3
 Nominal GDP  6.0 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 5.9 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3
 Labor Force -0.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.9 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
 Employment  0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
 Change in Empl. ('000s)  494 704 467 400 400 401 400 851 553 421 400 400 401 400
 Unemployment Rate (%)  4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Personal Disp. Income  4.1 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6
 Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.0 3.6 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.1 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Cons. Price Index (y/y) 3.3 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.4 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core CPI (y/y) 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
 Core PCE Price Index (y/y) 3.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
 Housing Starts (mns)  1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
 Real Output per Hour** (y/y) 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6

Long-Term Canadian Economic Outlook

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. * Intellectual Property Products. ** CPIX: CPI ex. 8 most volatile components. *** BoC Inflation: Avg. of CPI-trim and CPI-median.
Note: Home price measure shown is the CREA Composite Sale Price. Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, CMHC, CREA, TD Economics.
            Economic Indicator                 Annual Average 4th Quarter / 4th Quarter
26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 32F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 32F
  Real GDP 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Consumer Expenditure 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Durable Goods             -0.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
Business Investment 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7
Non-Res. Structures -0.9 3.4 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.3 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
Equipment & IPP* 3.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 4.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
Residential Investment -2.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 -0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7
Govt. Expenditure 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.9 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
    Final Domestic Demand 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Exports                   2.7 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Imports                   2.9 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 4.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5
Change in Non-Farm                            
Inventories (2012 $Bn) -6.5 -7.8 -5.8 -3.9 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
   Final Sales 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
International Current                            
Account Balance ($Bn)  10.4 20.8 19.5 19.9 21.1 22.9 24.9 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
% of GDP  0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Pre-Tax Corp. Profits 17.3 -2.4 -1.1 1.8 2.6 2.8 3.0 18.1 -7.3 0.8 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0
% of GDP  15.8 14.8 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.4 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  GDP Deflator (y/y) 4.5 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Nominal GDP  5.5 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 6.2 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
  Labour Force 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4
  Employment  0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
  Change in Empl. ('000s)  114 153 226 183 99 98 99 68 175 245 128 98 98 99
  Unemployment Rate (%)  6.6 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Personal Disp. Income  4.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.2 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5
  Pers. Savings Rate (%)  3.4 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Cons. Price Index (y/y) 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  CPIX (y/y) ** 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  BoC Inflation (y/y) *** 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Housing Starts ('000s) 242.3 226.6 230.5 233.5 233.5 233.0 233.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
  Home Prices (y/y) 0.1 1.7 3.3 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.2 0.2 1.6 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2
  Real GDP / Worker (y/y) 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

 

Long-Term Interest Rates

[Period-Over-Period Annualized Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated]

F: Forecast by TD Economics, September 2026. *Upper bound of target range.
Note: Annual averages are the average of the four quarterly end-of-period forecasts. Source: Bank of Canada, Bloomberg, Statistics Canada, TD Economics.
Interest Rates Annual Average End of Period
26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 32F 26F 27F 28F 29F 30F 31F 32F
U.S. FIXED INCOME                            
   Fed Funds Target Rate (%)* 3.88 4.13 3.75 3.38 3.25 3.25 3.25 4.25 3.75 3.75 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 3.76 3.98 3.64 3.24 3.15 3.15 3.15 4.15 3.65 3.55 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.15
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.08 3.96 3.55 3.36 3.35 3.35 3.35 4.40 3.65 3.40 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.23 4.20 3.89 3.81 3.80 3.80 3.80 4.55 3.95 3.85 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80
   10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 4.52 4.45 4.25 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.70 4.25 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.20
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) 0.45 0.49 0.70 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.30 0.60 0.80 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
CANADIAN FIXED INCOME                            
   Overnight Target Rate (%) 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   3-mth T-Bill Rate (%) 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
   2-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 2.99 2.65 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 3.10 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60
   5-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.21 3.27 2.99 2.91 2.90 2.90 2.90 3.50 3.05 2.95 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90
  10-yr Govt. Bond Yield (%) 3.57 3.46 3.30 3.26 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.70 3.30 3.30 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
  10-yr-2-yr Govt. Spread (%) 0.58 0.81 0.70 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.60 0.70 0.70 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65

 

Home Sales and Price Outlook

[Annual Average Growth, %]

Forecasts by TD Economics as of September 2026. Source: CREA, CMHC, TD Economics.
Provinces Home Sales Home Prices
2026F 2027F 2028F 2026F 2027F 2028F
National -5.3 4.7 6.2 0.1 1.7 3.3
Newfoundland & Labrador -7.9 3.7 2.2 4.2 1.4 2.5
Prince Edward Island -11.0 4.8 4.5 4.0 2.3 2.6
Nova Scotia -8.0 2.7 6.1 0.5 1.9 2.3
New Brunswick -6.0 2.9 4.1 0.4 1.8 3.2
Québec -5.4 1.1 3.1 4.2 1.6 3.1
Ontario -3.0 7.4 7.6 -2.6 0.6 2.8
Manitoba -5.3 3.5 6.0 1.9 1.9 3.6
Saskatchewan -3.9 5.7 3.2 4.5 3.8 4.3
Alberta -9.3 3.9 6.2 2.5 2.5 3.6
British Columbia -5.6 5.4 8.5 -1.3 0.9 2.3

Disclaimer

This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.