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Latest Research
U.S. Automotive Outlook 2026: Energy Price Shock Raises New Questions for Industry
The U.S. automotive industry had a solid 2025 on aggregate, with sales rising 2.2% to a new post-pandemic high. However, the industry was also subject to notable volatility, as the implementation of tariffs and the expiration of electric vehicle subsidies led to significant and episodic front-loading of purchases by consumers. Sales activity over the past 6 months has remained stable overall, with support provided by lower financing rates, but 2026 is shaping up to be another year of volatility.
April 17, 2026
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
The Iran conflict has triggered a major energy supply shock, pushing oil prices meaningfully higher and extending the inflation impulse beyond what was initially expected. Provided a longer-term peace deal is reached in the coming weeks, we still see a narrow window for the Fed to deliver on two more rate cuts in Q4.
April 16, 2026
Trending
Ceasefire Brings Some Relief To Crude Prices – But Diplomatic Setbacks Keep Risks Elevated
U.S.–Iran talks over the weekend ended without an agreement, raising doubts about whether the current ceasefire can evolve into lasting de-escalation. Crude prices have remained volatile since last week’s ceasefire news, initially rebounding before sliding again as markets pin hopes on a resumption of talks. We’ve updated our two main oil price scenarios – baseline and prolonged disruption – to reflect the most recent developments.
April 15, 2026
Latest Research
Revisiting Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): A Potential Leg Up in Today’s High-Rate U.S. Housing Market
Policy measures may eventually lend a hand to housing affordability, but buyers should also weigh financing choices carefully as these can provide more immediate relief. For the right borrower, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can offer a practical way to lower monthly payments in today’s elevated rate environment.
April 14, 2026
Trending
U.S. Consumer Price Index (March 2026)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shot higher by 0.9% month-on-month (m/m) in March, meeting the Bloomberg consensus forecast. On a twelve-month basis, CPI jumped to a near two-year high of 3.3% (from 2.4% in February).
April 10, 2026
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
April 24, 2026
Updated Publications
State Economic Forecast
March 19, 2026
Updated Publications
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
March 17, 2026
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
February 12, 2026
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Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
April 24, 2026
Updated Publications
State Economic Forecast
March 19, 2026
Updated Publications
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
March 17, 2026
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
February 12, 2026
View more updated publications
Latest Research
Latest Research
U.S. Automotive Outlook 2026: Energy Price Shock Raises New Questions for Industry
April 17, 2026
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
April 16, 2026
Latest Research
Revisiting Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): A Potential Leg Up in Today’s High-Rate U.S. Housing Market
April 14, 2026
Latest Research
2026 U.S. Business Investment Outlook: Larger than AI
March 12, 2026
Previous
Next
Latest Research
U.S. Automotive Outlook 2026: Energy Price Shock Raises New Questions for Industry
April 17, 2026
Latest Research
Dollars and Sense - Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
April 16, 2026
Latest Research
Revisiting Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): A Potential Leg Up in Today’s High-Rate U.S. Housing Market
April 14, 2026
Latest Research
2026 U.S. Business Investment Outlook: Larger than AI
March 12, 2026
View more latest research
Commentaries
Consumer
U.S. Retail Sales (March 2026)
April 21, 2026
Business Investment
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March 2026)
April 14, 2026
Real Estate
U.S. Existing Home Sales (March 2026)
April 13, 2026
Trending
U.S. Consumer Price Index (March 2026)
April 10, 2026
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Next
Consumer
U.S. Retail Sales (March 2026)
April 21, 2026
Business Investment
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March 2026)
April 14, 2026
Real Estate
U.S. Existing Home Sales (March 2026)
April 13, 2026
Trending
U.S. Consumer Price Index (March 2026)
April 10, 2026
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