U.S. Existing Home Sales (March 2026)

Existing home sales retreat in March

• Existing home sales fell 3.6% month-on-month (m/m) to 3.98 million units (annualized) in March – well below the market consensus forecast calling for a milder decline of 0.7%. The current sales level is the lowest since mid-2025. 
• Sales in the single-family segment fell 3.5% (m/m), while sales in the smaller condo/co-op segment fell 5.4%. Notable declines were recorded in the Northeast (-8.5% to 430 thousand – the lowest level in several decades), Midwest (-4.2%), and South (-3.1%), followed by a milder decline in the West (-1.3%).
• Unadjusted inventory levels stood at 1.36 million (equal to 4.1 months’ supply) – up 3.0% from February and 2.3% from March 2025.
• The median home price was up 1.4% year-on-year – an acceleration from around 0.4% in the two months prior. The median seasonally adjusted price also recorded an uptick on a month-to-month basis, though on a smoothed 3-month annualized basis the trend remained in shallow negative territory (seasonal adjustment performed by TD Economics). 

Key Implications

• The pullback in existing home sales is not entirely surprising given the increase in mortgage rates through March, driven by the increase in Treasury yields following the onset of the conflict in the Middle East. Overall sales activity remains subdued, falling back to just under 4 million (annualized). The Northeast region stands out, where total sales are the weakest on record, while single family transactions have fallen to their lowest level since the early 1980s – underscoring especially challenging conditions amid demographic and supply headwinds.
• Mortgage rates are now hovering near 6.4% for the 30-year fixed, about 40 basis points above late February levels before the start of the Middle East conflict. For a median priced home (low $400,000s), this adds roughly $90 to the typical monthly payment, reversing part of last year’s affordability gains. With the Middle East conflict proving more persistent than initially anticipated, higher inflation, higher rates, rising living costs (e.g., gasoline) that chip away at consumer budgets, and softer buyer confidence amid elevated uncertainty are likely to delay a sustained recovery in existing home sales. 

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