U.S. Existing Home Sales (September 2025)
Admir Kolaj, Economist | 416-944-6318
Date Published: October 23, 2025
- Category:
- U.S.
- Data Commentary
- Real Estate
U.S. existing home sales improve in September, price growth heats up
- Existing home sales rose by 1.5% month-on-month (m/m) to 4.06 million units (annualized) in September – meeting the consensus forecast. While still at a low level relative to historical norms, this was the best showing in seven months.
- The gain was entirely driven by an improvement in the single-family segment, where sales were up 1.7%. Meanwhile, sales in the smaller condo/co-op segment remained unchanged at a level of 370k for the third month in a row. Regionally, sales were up 5.5% in the West, 2.1% in the Northeast and 1.6% in the South, but fell 2.1% across the Midwest.
- Total inventory at the end of September was 1.55 million units, up 1.3% from August and 14% from September of last year. Measured at the current sales rate and seasonally adjusting, unsold inventory stood at 4.4 months' supply, up from 4.3 in August and 4.0 in September 2024.
- The median home price was up 2.1% year-on-year from 2.0% in the month prior. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the median home price increased by 0.8% m/m, building on a gain of 0.7% from the month prior (seasonal adjustment performed by TD Economics). This is a notable contrast from the moderate declines recorded in the first half of the year.
Key Implications
- The improvement in existing home sales in September, while encouraging, does little to change the overarching theme of sales activity remaining well below historical norms. More than anything, it reinforces the notion that, with affordability stretched tight, the market does respond to even mild reductions in mortgage rates. Inventory levels continue to improve at a modest clip, but with the months' supply remaining at the low end of what is considered balanced territory, this appears to be doing little to prevent a reacceleration in home price growth.
- Mortgage rates have fallen further in recent days, with the 30-year fixed rate currently hovering near 6.2%. Normally, this would encourage more homebuying, but mortgage purchase applications have headed consistently lower in each of the last four weeks ending on October 17th – a clear signal that activity is easing once again. This suggests that other factors – such as the reacceleration in home price growth that bites into affordability, ongoing uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown, or the weakness in the labor market – may be muting the growth impulse from an easing in mortgage rates.
Disclaimer
This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.