U.S. Existing Home Sales (June 2025)

U.S. existing home sales decline in June

• Existing home sales declined 2.7% month-on-month (m/m) to 3.93 million units (annualized) in June, coming in well-below expectations for a smaller pullback to 4.01 million units.
• The decline was concentrated in the single-family segment where home sales fell 3% m/m. Sales in the smaller condo/co-op segment were unchanged. On a regional basis, sales were lower in the Northeast, Midwest and South, while edging slightly higher in the West. 
• Total inventory at the end of June was 1.53 million units, down 0.6% from May but up 16% from one year ago. Measured at the current sales rate, unsold inventory ticked up to 4.7 months', up from 4.6 months in May and 4 months a year ago. 
• Home price growth remained modest but picked up slightly in June. Year-on-year gains strengthened to 2% from 1.6% the month prior. On a seasonally adjusted basis, median home prices edged up 0.2% in June – marking the second consecutive month of modest gains (seasonal adjustment performed by TD Economics).

Key Implications

• Activity in the housing market remains tepid amid low affordability due to high mortgage rates and home prices. Demand is cooling as indicated by stagnant sales, modest home price growth and rising inventory. Easing price pressures and competition may be a welcome sign by prospective buyers, but a quick rebound in demand is unlikely as high mortgage rates remain the dominant force weighing on affordability.
• Mortgage rates remain near the 7% mark, restraining both home buying and refinancing activity. We expect interest rates to edge gradually lower by year-end. But this is only likely to offer support at the margins, as affordability concerns remain pervasive, particularly given other rising homeownership costs, such as home insurance and repair. 

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