U.S. Existing Home Sales (October 2025)

U.S. existing home sales see small gain in October, price growth heats up

• Existing home sales rose by 1.2% month-on-month (m/m) to 4.10 million units (annualized) in October – meeting the consensus forecast. With this latest increase, sales – while still low by historical standards – rose back to the level at the start of the year. 
• Sales in the single-family segment rose 0.8% to 3.71 million, while sales in the smaller condo/co-op segment rose by 5.4% (from 370k to 390k). The regional profile was mixed, with activity mostly driven by a solid gain in the Midwest (up 5.3%). Sales also rose by a modest 0.5% in the South, but were flat in the Northeast and declined by 1.3% in the West. 
• Total inventory at the end of October was 1.52 million units, down a modest 0.7% from September and up 10.9% from October of last year. Measured at the current sales rate and seasonally adjusting, unsold inventory stood at 4.4 months' supply, up from 4.3 in September and 4.0 in October 2024. 
• The median home price was up 2.1% year-on-year – an acceleration from 1.4% in the month prior. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the median home price increased by an estimated 1.1% m/m – the best showing since December 2024 (seasonal adjustment performed by TD Economics). This is a notable contrast from the moderate declines recorded in the first half of the year. 

Key Implications

• Lower rates helped to lift sales activity in October, but looking beyond the headline print, this wasn't an entirely solid report. The October increase lacked breadth, with the Midwest region doing the heavy lifting and activity flat across the rest of the country. Additionally, the level of sales remains near historical lows. With mortgage rates falling from around 6.8% earlier this summer to 6.2-6.3% over the September-October period, an even better outturn may have been possible. But the decline in consumer confidence throughout the government shutdown may have played some role in muting the positive growth impulse from lower rates. 
• While inventory has improved, current months' supply is still hovering near the low end of what is considered balanced territory. This appears to be doing little to prevent a reacceleration in home price growth. We anticipate mortgage rates will ease a bit further in the quarters ahead, but not by much, with the 30-year fixed rate likely settling somewhat below 6% by mid-2026. Continuing with the recent theme, we anticipate this easing in rates will provide only limited relief for the U.S. housing market (for more see our report here). 

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