U.S. Existing Home Sales (July 2025)

U.S. existing home sales improve in July

• Existing home sales rose 2.0% month-on-month (m/m) to 4.01 million units (annualized) in July, coming in above expectations for a slight decline to 3.91 million. 
• Sales increased in both the single-family and the condo/co-op segments, with the former up 2.0% to 3.64 million and the latter up 2.8% to 370 thousand. On a regional basis, sales improved in the Northeast (+8.7%), South (+2.2%), and West (+1.4%), but fell in the Midwest (-1.1%). 
• Total inventory at the end of July was 1.55 million units, up 0.6% from June and 15.7% from July of last year. Measured at the current sales rate and seasonally adjusting, unsold inventory stood at 4.3 months' supply, a tick lower than in June (4.4) but up notably from 3.7 in July 2024. 
• Home price growth slowed sharply, with year-on-year gains easing to just 0.2% from 1.4% the month prior. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the median home price fell by 0.3% for the second consecutive month (seasonal adjustment performed by TD Economics).

Key Implications

• The moderate improvement in existing home sales in July is a welcome development, but it does little to change the overarching theme of a sluggish housing market with sales activity still hovering near its lows reached during the Global Financial Crisis. Sluggish demand, combined with some improvement in inventory, is contributing to weaker growth in home prices. That said, experiences vary widely throughout the country. The recent softness has been concentrated in the South and West Census regions, while price growth continues to hold up better in the Midwest and the Northeast.  
• Mortgage rates have headed lower in recent weeks, with the 30-year benchmark easing by about 20 basis points from mid-July levels to 6.6%. With the Fed poised to provide some rate relief by year-end, a further easing in mortgage rates should bring more life back into the housing market in 2026. 

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