U.S. Existing Home Sales (November 2025)

U.S. existing home sales improve for third month in a row, but record only a modest gain in November

• Existing home sales rose by 0.5% month-on-month (m/m) to 4.13 million units (annualized) in November – coming in below the market consensus forecast for a 1.2% gain. November marked the third consecutive monthly gain. Sales are now at the highest level since February but remain low by historical standards. 
• Sales in the single-family segment rose 0.8% m/m to 3.75 million, while sales in the smaller condo/co-op segment fell 2.6% (from 390k to 380k) – halving the outsized gain the month prior. The regional profile was mixed, with activity up 4.1% in the Northeast and 1.1% in the South, but down 2.0% in the Midwest and flat in the West. 
• Total inventory at the end of October was 1.43 million units, down 5.9% from October and up 7.5% from November of last year. Measured at the current sales rate and seasonally adjusting, unsold inventory stood at 4.2 months' supply, down slightly from 4.3 in October, but up from 3.8 in November 2024.
• The median home price was up 1.2% year-on-year – a deceleration from 2.0% in the month prior. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the median home price was flat compared to October. While monthly gains slowed to a crawl, on a 3-month annualized basis, price growth still shows decent momentum (seasonal adjustment performed by TD Economics). 

Key Implications

• Mortgage rates have hovered near 6.2% since late October – still elevated but showing an improvement from around 6.8% earlier this summer. This lower interest backdrop is helping on the margin, with home sales rising in each of the last three months. Nonetheless, this has not changed the status quo of a still-challenged housing market, with overall activity remaining near historical lows. Soft spots in today's report include the lack of regional breadth with respect to the sales gain and a recent cooling in home price growth (even as momentum in prices remains positive on a trend basis). 
• Pending home sales rose in October while mortgage purchase applications trended higher through the end of November, suggesting the positive sales trend could continue into the year-end. Looking into 2026, a bit more easing in mortgage rates, which we anticipate will settle somewhat below 6% by mid-2026, coupled with an improving labor market backdrop, should help push sales higher. That said, we anticipate the improvement will continue to be somewhat gradual, with sales unlikely to rise past their 2019 level over the medium term (see our report here). 

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