Real GDP (Q4-2025, initial estimate)

Q4 GDP weaker than expected, but underlying fundamentals remain solid

• The U.S. economy expanded by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter (q/q, annualized) in the fourth quarter – below the consensus forecast of 3.0% – and a notable deceleration from Q3's 4.4%.
  • The annual average rate of growth for 2025 was 2.2% – down from 2024's 2.8%. 
• Consumer spending rose by 2.4% q/q, following a stronger gain of 3.5% in Q3. Goods spending was essentially flat on the quarter, while services rose by a healthy 3.4%.
• Business investment was up 3.7% q/q, a slight uptick from Q3. In terms of the breakdown, both equipment (+3.2%) and intellectual property products (+7.4%) were higher, while spending on structures (-2.4% q/q) declined for an eighth consecutive quarter. Residential investment (-1.5%) also declined. 
• Government spending (-5.1%) fell sharply, entirely driven by a pullback in federal outlays (-16.6%) due to the 43-day long government shutdown. Meanwhile, state & local spending rose 2.4%. 
• International trade had a negligible impact on growth, as a very modest pullback in exports (-0.9%) was largely offset by a similar decline in imports (-1.3%). Inventory investment added a modest 0.2 percentage points to Q4 GDP. 
• Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a better gauge of underlying demand as it includes only household consumption and fixed investment rose by a healthy 2.4%, following a gain of 2.9% in Q3.
• Core PCE inflation – the Fed's preferred gauge – rose 2.7% q/q annualized, down slightly from Q3's 2.9%.

Key Implications

• Following a very strong third quarter, economic growth softened by more than expected through the final three months of last year, largely due to a sharp contraction in federal outlays. However, this was a temporary impact related to the government shutdown, and we should see a reversal of those effects in the first quarter. Encouragingly, final sales to private domestic purchasers – a better gauge of underlying demand – still expanded by a healthy 2.4%.  
• All told, even after accounting for this morning's miss on growth, we still feel that the U.S. economy has entered 2026 with considerable momentum. While headwinds from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remain, its effects are likely to be eclipsed by fiscal tailwinds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, easier financial conditions, and continued investments in AI. Growth is expected to accelerate to 2.7% Q4/Q4 this year – up from 2025's 2.2%.

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