Real GDP (Q2-2024, advance estimate)
Leslie Preston, Managing Director & Senior Economist | 416-983-7053
Date Published: July 25, 2024
- Category:
- U.S.
- Data Commentary
U.S. Economic Resilience on Display in the Second Quarter
- The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in the second quarter of 2024, expanding by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (q/q, annualized) against expectations for around 2%.
- Looking under the hood, consumer spending was slightly stronger than we had forecast, advancing by 2.3% q/q. That was driven by a rebound in durable goods spending (+4.7%), while spending on services downshifted to a modest 2.2%, from 3.3% in the first quarter.
- Business investment rose a sturdy 5.2% on a surge in equipment spending (+11.6%). Meanwhile, spending on structures gave back a small part of its recent strength (-3.3%) and spending on intellectual property products continued running at a healthy clip (4.5%).
- Two other areas of upside surprise were government outlays and residential investment. Government spending rose 3.1%, driven by a 5.2% increase in national defense outlays. Residential investment still declined by 1.4% on the quarter, but that was a smaller drop than we had pencilled in.
- Inventory building added significantly to growth in the second quarter, contributing 0.8 percentage points (p.p.) on a quarterly basis. However, that was nearly entirely offset by the drag from net exports (-0.7 p.p.). Imports were up strongly on the quarter, subtracting 0.9 p.p. from headline growth.
- Final domestic demand was up a healthy 2.7%, building on the 2.4% gain in the first quarter.
Key Implications
- We had expected the U.S. economy to gear down a bit more in the second quarter, but its resilience was on display once again. However, the details of the report are consistent with further slowing ahead, as outlined in our June forecast. The uptick in consumer outlays was driven by a rebound in durables spending, which we don't expect to be sustained, while the larger services spending category is slowing in the background. We will get the June personal spending data tomorrow, which will clarify how momentum was looking as we headed into the third quarter.
- Also, the upside surprise on government spending coming from national defense may be a one-off, and could likely downshift in the coming quarter. All that to say we appear to be in a goldilocks scenario for the U.S. economy – growth is moderating gradually while inflation is getting closer to the Fed's target. This should enable the Fed to start cutting interest rates later this year.
Disclaimer
This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.