U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (June 2025)

Homebuilding records modest gain in June, but outlook remains weak 

• Housing starts rose 4.6% month-on-month (m/m) in June to 1.32 million (annualized) units, largely in line with the consensus forecast. Revisions to data for the two prior months were negligible, adding 6k units to the previously reported tallies.
• June's uptick in housing construction was entirely driven by the multifamily segment, where starts rose 30% m/m (or 101k units). Meanwhile, the single-family segment declined for the third consecutive month, falling 4.6% m/m (or 43k units) to 883k. 
• Residential permits inched higher by 0.2% m/m (or 3k units) to 1.4 million units, but after smoothing through volatility, permits continued to edge lower on a three-month moving average basis – a theme that has been ongoing over the past year. 
• Among the four Census regions, starts rose sharply in the Northeast (+73.3% m/m), helping to erase the prior months sharp pullback. Meanwhile, homebuilding was lower across the Midwest (-5.3% m/m), West (-1.4% m/m) and South (-0.7% m/m) regions.

Key Implications

• Homebuilding activity recorded a modest gain in June, but from exceptionally low levels, with housing starts having hit a 5-year low the month prior. Moreover, June's uptick was entirely driven by a rebound in multifamily starts across the Northeast region, after having suffered its largest monthly decline since July 2021 the month prior. 
• Over the near-term, housing construction is likely to come under further pressure. Homebuilder sentiment has recently steadied near its pandemic lows, amid heightened trade policy and economic uncertainty and still elevated mortgage rates. The latter has helped to keep many prospective homebuyers on the sidelines, pushing the supply of new single-family homes that are currently for sale to its highest level since 2007. Until there's some drawdown in current inventories, it's unlikely that we'll see any meaningful rebound in homebuilding activity.  

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