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TD Economics
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Feature
Media
WATCH: Derek Burleton discusses what economic trends might signal a recession on MoneyTalk
TD Economics has said there’s a “good chance of at least a mild recession” this year. Greg Bonnell speaks with Derek Burleton, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, TD, about the signs they’re watching to see if that forecast comes to pass and why it may not affect the average Canadian to the extent you might think.
August 07, 2025
Media
WATCH: Marc Ercolao talks about what's next for Canada as U.S. trade deadline passes without a deal
The U.S. has imposed a 35% tariff on some Canadian goods not covered by the current free trade deal. Marc Ercolao, Economist at TD, joins MoneyTalk to explain how Canada may be able to handle the new tariffs.
August 01, 2025
Latest Research
Canada: Assessing Industry Pressure Points From U.S. Tariffs
The impacts of recently-imposed U.S. tariffs (and broader economic uncertainties) are starting to show up in the Canadian economic data. What is likely to come as little surprise, Canada’s trade-sensitive sectors are underperforming the less exposed parts of the economy across a variety of metrics. This report provides a status update on these measured tariff effects.
July 29, 2025
Economy
The Curious Case of Young Families’ Shrinking Mortgages
Statistics Canada’s Distributions of Household Economic Accounts (DHEA) contains a treasure chest of interesting facts and figures on the financial position of households. One trend that stood out for several quarters now is the steady decline in average mortgage balances of young families, even as mortgage debt has continued to rise for all other age groups.
July 29, 2025
Latest Research
China’s Economy Under Tariffs
The tariffs that remain in place on U.S. imports from China are going to be a headwind for China this year. For China, tariffs are what economists would call a demand shock, and the response is fairly simple – authorities can address the fallout from tariffs by putting in place measures to boost demand.
July 16, 2025
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
August 01, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Firmer Back Half of 2025 in the Cards for Canadian Housing
June 25, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
June 18, 2025
Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 17, 2025
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Next
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
August 01, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Firmer Back Half of 2025 in the Cards for Canadian Housing
June 25, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
June 18, 2025
Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
June 17, 2025
View more updated publications
Latest Research
Media
WATCH: Derek Burleton discusses what economic trends might signal a recession on MoneyTalk
August 07, 2025
Media
WATCH: Marc Ercolao talks about what's next for Canada as U.S. trade deadline passes without a deal
August 01, 2025
Latest Research
Canada: Assessing Industry Pressure Points From U.S. Tariffs
July 29, 2025
Economy
The Curious Case of Young Families’ Shrinking Mortgages
July 29, 2025
Previous
Next
Media
WATCH: Derek Burleton discusses what economic trends might signal a recession on MoneyTalk
August 07, 2025
Media
WATCH: Marc Ercolao talks about what's next for Canada as U.S. trade deadline passes without a deal
August 01, 2025
Latest Research
Canada: Assessing Industry Pressure Points From U.S. Tariffs
July 29, 2025
Economy
The Curious Case of Young Families’ Shrinking Mortgages
July 29, 2025
View more latest research
Commentaries
Economy
Canadian Merchandise Trade (June 2025)
August 05, 2025
Commentaries
Canadian Monthly GDP (May 2025)
July 31, 2025
Commentaries
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (July 30, 2025)
July 30, 2025
Consumer
Canadian Retail Sales (May 2025)
July 24, 2025
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Next
Economy
Canadian Merchandise Trade (June 2025)
August 05, 2025
Commentaries
Canadian Monthly GDP (May 2025)
July 31, 2025
Commentaries
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (July 30, 2025)
July 30, 2025
Consumer
Canadian Retail Sales (May 2025)
July 24, 2025
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