TD Economics - TD Economics - Canada

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Analysis covering the globe

Banner image of people working beside a stairway — TD Economics
Analysis covering the globe

WATCH: Beata Caranci Breaks Down Canada’s 2026 Economic Outlook on MoneyTalk

Media WATCH: Beata Caranci Breaks Down Canada’s 2026 Economic Outlook on MoneyTalk After a whirlwind 2025, we’re kicking off the year with a deep dive into the forces expected to shape the Canadian economy in 2026 and beyond. From trade uncertainty to housing affordability to AI adoption, Kim Parlee, Vice President, TD Wealth, explores it all with Beata Caranci, Chief Economist, TD Bank Group. Beata also shares her wishlist for economic growth. January 12, 2026

When Defence Spending Becomes Industrial Policy

Latest Research When Defence Spending Becomes Industrial Policy The federal government is planning a substantial increase in defence expenditures to improve force readiness and support the economy. Many segments of Canada’s industrial base are operating below capacity suggesting opportunity for economic gains, even though some high-profile defence sectors feature capacity constraints and a high degree of import reliance. Longer-term investment in developing a more robust domestic supply chain represents the upside to growth. January 12, 2026

Implications for the crude oil market From the U.S.-Venezuela Situation

Trending Implications for the crude oil market From the U.S.-Venezuela Situation On January 3rd, the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, expanding its economic influence particularly in Venezuela's oil sector. January 07, 2026

TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: The Damage is Done

Economy Canada: TD Credit & Debit Card Spending TD card spending growth came in a touch stronger in 2025 through November, up 5.4% relative to 4.9% in 2024. The category mix broadly echoed 2024, with services spending once again outpacing goods, and goods spending making a modest comeback. December 18, 2025

Long-Term Forecast

Trending Long-Term Forecast Canadian economic growth is expected to run below trend through 2026. Output is held back by slower population growth and the impact of tariffs on export demand and business and consumer sentiment. Consumer spending had been improving on lower interest rates, but we expect this to slow as the unemployment rate holds above its long-run level until late 2027. December 17, 2025

Updated Publications

Weekly Bottom Line Our summary of recent economic events and what to expect in the weeks ahead.

Updated Publications Weekly Bottom Line January 09, 2026

Provincial Economic Forecast

Updated Publications Provincial Economic Forecast December 16, 2025

Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast

Updated Publications Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast December 11, 2025

Commodities Quick-Take

Updated Publications Commodities Quick-Take November 27, 2025

Weekly Bottom Line Our summary of recent economic events and what to expect in the weeks ahead.

Updated Publications Weekly Bottom Line January 09, 2026

Provincial Economic Forecast

Updated Publications Provincial Economic Forecast December 16, 2025

Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast

Updated Publications Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast December 11, 2025

Commodities Quick-Take

Updated Publications Commodities Quick-Take November 27, 2025

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Latest Research

When Defence Spending Becomes Industrial Policy

Latest Research When Defence Spending Becomes Industrial Policy January 12, 2026

TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: The Damage is Done

Economy Canada: TD Credit & Debit Card Spending December 18, 2025

The Days Of Our Lives

Latest Research The Days Of Our Lives December 04, 2025

Weather Disasters and the Insurance Market in Canada: An Emerging Crisis?

Future Ready Economy Weather Disasters and the Insurance Market in Canada: An Emerging Crisis? November 27, 2025

When Defence Spending Becomes Industrial Policy

Latest Research When Defence Spending Becomes Industrial Policy January 12, 2026

TD Credit and Debit Card Spend Report: The Damage is Done

Economy Canada: TD Credit & Debit Card Spending December 18, 2025

The Days Of Our Lives

Latest Research The Days Of Our Lives December 04, 2025

Weather Disasters and the Insurance Market in Canada: An Emerging Crisis?

Future Ready Economy Weather Disasters and the Insurance Market in Canada: An Emerging Crisis? November 27, 2025

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Commentaries

Canadian Employment - Job market, hiring, unemployment

Labour Canadian Employment (December 2025) January 09, 2026

Canadian Merchandise Trade

Economy Canadian Merchandise Trade (October 2025) January 08, 2026

Implications for the crude oil market From the U.S.-Venezuela Situation

Trending Implications for the crude oil market From the U.S.-Venezuela Situation January 07, 2026

Canadian Monthly GDP (October 2025)

Commentaries Canadian Monthly GDP (October 2025) December 23, 2025

Canadian Employment - Job market, hiring, unemployment

Labour Canadian Employment (December 2025) January 09, 2026

Canadian Merchandise Trade

Economy Canadian Merchandise Trade (October 2025) January 08, 2026

Implications for the crude oil market From the U.S.-Venezuela Situation

Trending Implications for the crude oil market From the U.S.-Venezuela Situation January 07, 2026

Canadian Monthly GDP (October 2025)

Commentaries Canadian Monthly GDP (October 2025) December 23, 2025

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