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Updated Publications
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Location, location, location
We’re tracking somewhat firmer third quarter growth for Canadian home sales than we expected in June. This implies that pent-up demand built earlier in the year (amid peak uncertainty) returned at a larger-than-expected magnitude. This notion is laid bare by the upside surprises in B.C. and Ontario, where pent-up demand is the largest.
October 02, 2025
Economy
Canada’s Consumer: Monetary Policy in Action
Canadian consumer spending has been remarkably robust, despite a weak first quarter of 2025. This has been primarily driven by lower interest rates that have encouraged households to spend rather than save, even as the labour market and housing sector remain subdued.
October 01, 2025
Media
WATCH: Leslie Preston looks at the impact of trade action on Canada's provincial economies
This year is shaping up to be a modestly better year than initially expected, but challenges remain. Leslie Preston, Managing Director and Senior Economist with TD Bank Group, looks at the state of Canada’s economy from a provincial level and how the different markets have been adapting to the new trading landscape.
September 23, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
2025 is shaping up to be a modestly better year than expected in our prior forecast. However, our provincial growth rankings are largely unchanged. Observed weakness in large manufacturing bases in Central Canada is as expected, while idiosyncratic factors are driving firmer performances elsewhere.
September 22, 2025
Updated Publications
Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast
Despite all the twists and turns in U.S. trade policy, our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged from our June view. Ditto for the U.S. economy, at least on the surface. Consumers have pulled back as the labor market has cooled, but that has been offset by strong business investment. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates further to support the labor market that has cooled further than previously believed. Canada’s exports have been hit hard by U.S. tariffs, but consumer spendi
September 18, 2025
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
October 03, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Location, location, location
October 02, 2025
Updated Publications
Long-Term Forecast
September 23, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
September 22, 2025
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Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
October 03, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Location, location, location
October 02, 2025
Updated Publications
Long-Term Forecast
September 23, 2025
Updated Publications
Provincial Economic Forecast
September 22, 2025
View more updated publications
Latest Research
Economy
Canada’s Consumer: Monetary Policy in Action
October 01, 2025
Media
WATCH: Leslie Preston looks at the impact of trade action on Canada's provincial economies
September 23, 2025
Media
WATCH: James Marple discusses Bank of Canada's decision to cut rates amid signs of economic weakness on MoneyTalk
September 17, 2025
Economy
Economists’ Almanac Predicting Another Warm Year for U.S. Inflation
September 09, 2025
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Next
Economy
Canada’s Consumer: Monetary Policy in Action
October 01, 2025
Media
WATCH: Leslie Preston looks at the impact of trade action on Canada's provincial economies
September 23, 2025
Media
WATCH: James Marple discusses Bank of Canada's decision to cut rates amid signs of economic weakness on MoneyTalk
September 17, 2025
Economy
Economists’ Almanac Predicting Another Warm Year for U.S. Inflation
September 09, 2025
View more latest research
Commentaries
Economy
Canadian Merchandise Trade (August 2025)
October 07, 2025
Commentaries
Canadian Monthly GDP (July 2025)
September 26, 2025
Consumer
Canadian Retail Sales (July 2025)
September 19, 2025
Commentaries
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (September 17, 2025)
September 17, 2025
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Economy
Canadian Merchandise Trade (August 2025)
October 07, 2025
Commentaries
Canadian Monthly GDP (July 2025)
September 26, 2025
Consumer
Canadian Retail Sales (July 2025)
September 19, 2025
Commentaries
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement (September 17, 2025)
September 17, 2025
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