Canadian Merchandise Trade (September 2025)

Canada's Trade Books Flip to Surplus in September, Progress on Trade Recovery Resumes

• Canada's trade position with the world flipped from a revised $6.4 billion deficit in August to a $153 million surplus in September.
• Exports in September rose by a hefty 6.3% month-on-month (m/m) after taking a decent step back the prior month. The increase was driven by both a healthy rise in exports to the U.S. (4.6% m/m) and non-U.S. markets (11% m/m). Compositionally, 9 of 11 product categories rose, led by the highly-volatile exports of unwrought gold (30.2% m/m). Crude oil exports (5.8% m/m) and aircraft/other transportation exports (23.4% m/m) also provided assists.
• Goods imports on the other hand were down by 4.1% m/m in September, but were also heavily influenced by movements in unwrought gold, which dragged imports of metal and non-metallic minerals down 27.8% m/m. Outside of this, 7 of 11 product groups saw decreases on the month, with imports of consumer goods (-6.0% m/m) and pharmaceuticals (-13.8% m/m) also contributing to the decline.
• In volume terms, merchandise exports were up 4.1% m/m while imports decreased by 3.3% m/m.
• Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the United States narrowed by $3.9 billion to $8.5 billion in September.

Key Implications

• Canadian trade data is back on the docket after the U.S. government shutdown delayed its release last month. In special circumstances, Statistics Canada had to impute this missing trade data into the Q3-GDP release, and indeed, the data confirms that net trade was tailwind for real GDP growth. We'd note that reported goods export volumes in the third quarter exceeded those estimated in the national accounts, opening the door to a modest upside revision to Q3-GDP.
• September's data also confirms the broader recovery in Canadian exports following April's plunge. Near-term progress will be far from linear, but it is reasonable to believe that peak negative impacts from tariffs are in the rearview mirror. The key risk moving forward is how the trade backdrop will shake out as the U.S., Canada and Mexico prepare for a complex USMCA review.        

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