Canadian Merchandise Trade (November 2025)

Canada's Trade Deficit Deepens in November

• Canada's trade deficit widened substantially from $395 million in October to $2.2 billion in November.
• Exports in November pulled back (-2.8% month-on-month, m/m). However, the decline was narrowly based, driven by a 24.4% m/m drop in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum metals, and an 11.6% drop in motor vehicles and parts. Otherwise, 8 of 11 product categories registered a gain in October, with a 7.6% m/m increase in crude oil exports providing the largest lift.
• Goods imports edged lower by 0.1% m/m in November, with 7 of 11 subsectors booking a decline. Imports of motor vehicles and parts (-4.5% m/m) contributed most to the drop, with energy imports (-10.6% m/m) also denting the headline number. A 6.2% m/m increase in consumer goods imports helped offset the impact.
• In volume terms, merchandise exports were down 0.9% m/m while imports increased by 0.9% m/m.
• Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the United States widened from $5.2 billion in October to $6.6 billion in November. Exports to non-U.S. markets fell by 4.9% m/m on the month.

Key Implications

• Trade data for the month of November continues to highlight the impact that pronounced volatility in precious metals shipments are having on Canada's trade data. Smoothing through the noise, Canadian export volumes remain a few percent below their pre-tariff levels. The recovery in Canada's overall trade picture has been uneven, and businesses can anticipate challenging conditions in the months ahead.
• Canada's recent strategic partnership with China may alleviate some strain in key sectors like autos and agriculture. But the future of North American trade will be highly contingent on the outcome of the upcoming review of the USMCA agreement. The U.S. Supreme Court is also soon set to rule on whether the U.S. administration's use of IEEPA tariffs is lawful. The jury is out on what the decision will be, but it may have implications for upcoming negotiations.        

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