Canadian Monthly GDP (November 2025)

Canada's economy sputters in November

• Canadian GDP flatlined in November after a three-tenths contraction last month. The reading fell a tick shy of Statistics Canada's advanced guidance and market expectations.
• Compositionally, 10 of 20 industries registered a decline on the month. Goods industries fell for a second consecutive month (-0.3% month-on-month, m/m), while the services sector edged higher by 0.1% m/m.
• On the goods side, the manufacturing sector slipped by -1.3% m/m, contributing most to the goods side contraction.  Meanwhile, the agriculture and forestry sectors fell for a second consecutive month by 1.1% and 2.8% m/m, respectively. A 0.2% m/m rise in the construction sector minimally offset the drag.
• On the services side, reduced motor vehicles and parts sales pulled wholesale trade down by 2.1% m/m, with a 1.5% m/m jump in retail trade providing an offset. The education sector (+1.0% m/m) halted a three month slide, boosting overall public sector activity.
• Advanced guidance calls for a slight uptick in December GDP (0.1% m/m). Increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade were partially offset by decreases in the mining, oil, and gas industries.

Key Implications

• Canada's economy cruised into year-end at stall speed. With November's print and flash estimates for December, economic growth is tracking a mild contraction for Q4-2025. Quarterly growth over 2025 has been particularly volatile due to sharp movements in trade and inventories, something not well captured in the monthly industry GDP accounts. Accounting for recent discrepancies between the two measures, we expect GDP growth in Q4 to land roughly flat, in line with the Bank of Canada's (BoC) recent projections.
• The BoC doesn't make its next policy decision until March 18th. We don't think today's data moves them off of their current policy stance even as they acknowledge that considerable uncertainty around trade and overall economic growth is still present. All told, we maintain our view that the BoC has reached the end of their interest rate easing cycle. 

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