Canadian Monthly GDP (October 2025)

Canada's economy takes a step back in October

• Canadian GDP contracted by 0.3% m/m in October, in line with Statistics Canada's advanced guidance and market expectations.
• Compositionally, 11 of 20 industries registered a decline on the month. Goods industries (-0.7% m/m) reversed out last month's hefty gain, while the services sector contracted by a smaller 0.2% m/m.
• On the goods side, the manufacturing sector (-1.5% m/m) contributed most to the GDP contraction, offsetting last month's expansion. A 0.6% m/m pullback in the mining, oil & gas sectors also contributed to monthly GDP decline. Meanwhile, the construction sector fell for a second consecutive month (-0.4% m/m).
• On the services side, the education sector fell by 1.8% weighed down by the teachers strike in Alberta. Meanwhile, the transportation and warehousing sector (-1.1% m/m)  reversed out last month's gain. Wholesale and retail trade also fell by 0.9% m/m and 0.6% m/m, respectively. 
• Advanced guidance calls for a slight uptick in November GDP (0.1% m/m). Increases in the education, construction, and transportation sectors are expected to be partially offset by activity in the manufacturing and mining, oil & gas sector.

Key Implications

• After an upside surprise to growth in the third quarter, today's GDP data together with November guidance indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth is tracking roughly flat. Tariff-impacted industries showed some strain in October after gradually recovering in prior months. The expectation is that overall economic growth will remain subdued over the next quarter or two before gradually recovering over the medium-term. 
• The Bank of Canada (BoC) doesn't make its next policy decision until January 28th, and we don't think today's data moves them off of their current policy stance. The BoC has acknowledged that trade-related impacts on inflation and economic growth are becoming more clear, though that doesn't lower the level of uncertainty in coming quarters as Canada and the U.S. continue to work on hammering out a trade deal. All told, we maintain our view that the BoC has reached the end of their interest rate easing cycle.          

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