Latest Research
November 06, 2024
Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump
As of 11 AM ET, Donald Trump has secured 277 of the 538 Electoral College votes, becoming the 47th president. While ballots are still being counted, President Trump also looks to have won the popular vote, which has not happened for a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
September 25, 2024
From Laggard, to Leader, and Back Again: Germany’s Malaise
Germany’s economic growth has underperformed the broader euro area for its longest stretch since the collapse of communism in eastern Europe led to German reunification. The current malaise is also the result of a supply shock but different from the last period of underperformance. It is expected to be less lasting too, and fade in 2025.
September 13, 2024
U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications
Elections matter for the economy, but financial markets are likely to be particularly attuned to the current election cycle given America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The make-up of Congress will determine how much of the future President’s agenda can be implemented. A divided Congress will likely force the next President to make significant concessions relative to their current platform proposals.
August 22, 2024
The Only Constant Is Change
The 6th century Greek philosopher, Heraclitus, had it right with the idea that nothing is constant but change. He was referring to the universe and life, more generally, but it’s an apt depiction of the economy. After a long period of upside surprises to the economic data, markets are adjusting to a shift in paradigm. Fear moments will dot the landscape until confidence solidifies that the economic path remains a soft landing, and not a hard one.
July 03, 2024
Behind the Scenes: China’s Deflation and Global Prices
The fading pandemic-era boom in goods consumption, multi-decade highs in interest rates that weighs on demand for durable goods that are often bought on credit, and a return to normalcy in supply chains have all helped slow consumer price inflation.
