Latest Research
May 23, 2025
The First 100 Days: Dazed and Confused
It’s been a whirlwind for forecasters, reminding me of the pandemic days when we were reviewing forecasts every couple of weeks to catch up to policy announcements without a historical reference for what was going to come next. We’ve learned a lot in the first 100 days: The first is that tariffs will remain the economic weapon of choice on a scale greater than anything in recent history. The second lesson is that regardless of whether the Administration back-peddles on initial tariff threats, the goal remains the same.
May 06, 2025
Choppy Waters for the Barrel - Crude Oil Update
Oil prices continue to be pressured lower as erratic U.S. trade policy weighs on global economic growth at the same time that OPEC+ is boosting global oil supply. The price for WTI crude has shed over 20% since early last month to almost $55/bbl, the lowest level in over four years.
March 27, 2025
The Times They Are A-Changin’: Germany and the E.U.’s Economic Outlook
After two years of weak growth, Germany and much of the E.U. looked to be set for another tepid year in 2025. However, Germany’s incoming government looks to be going beyond added defense outlays and funding much-needed infrastructure investment. Our new outlook incorporates the increased German public investment spending linked to the new infrastructure fund.
January 07, 2025
How Far Will They Go? China’s Outlook for 2025
China’s economy continues to contend with the ramifications of a housing market meltdown, decades of investment-driven growth, and a trade war with the U.S. that is set to re-accelerate. Faced with these headwinds, policymakers have recommitted to monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand.
November 06, 2024
Markets Brace For Higher Inflation and Interest Rates Under President Trump
As of 11 AM ET, Donald Trump has secured 277 of the 538 Electoral College votes, becoming the 47th president. While ballots are still being counted, President Trump also looks to have won the popular vote, which has not happened for a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
September 25, 2024
From Laggard, to Leader, and Back Again: Germany’s Malaise
Germany’s economic growth has underperformed the broader euro area for its longest stretch since the collapse of communism in eastern Europe led to German reunification. The current malaise is also the result of a supply shock but different from the last period of underperformance. It is expected to be less lasting too, and fade in 2025.
September 13, 2024
U.S. 2024 Election: Economic and Financial Implications
Elections matter for the economy, but financial markets are likely to be particularly attuned to the current election cycle given America’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The make-up of Congress will determine how much of the future President’s agenda can be implemented. A divided Congress will likely force the next President to make significant concessions relative to their current platform proposals.
July 03, 2024
Behind the Scenes: China’s Deflation and Global Prices
The fading pandemic-era boom in goods consumption, multi-decade highs in interest rates that weighs on demand for durable goods that are often bought on credit, and a return to normalcy in supply chains have all helped slow consumer price inflation.
