Forecasts
June 17, 2025
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
Dramatic policy shifts in Washington continue to drive the narrative underlying the global economic outlook. It has been a wild ride since our March forecast, with the Liberation Day tariffs initially proving to be far higher than expected, only to be delayed. It remains highly uncertain what path U.S. tariff policy will take, the biggest wildcard in our forecast. Our global outlook is based on an assumed path for U.S. tariffs that balances the likelihood for tariff deals, with the administration’s desire to raise revenue and encourage onshoring of manufacturing in key industries.
May 23, 2025
The First 100 Days: Dazed and Confused
It’s been a whirlwind for forecasters, reminding me of the pandemic days when we were reviewing forecasts every couple of weeks to catch up to policy announcements without a historical reference for what was going to come next. We’ve learned a lot in the first 100 days: The first is that tariffs will remain the economic weapon of choice on a scale greater than anything in recent history. The second lesson is that regardless of whether the Administration back-peddles on initial tariff threats, the goal remains the same.
May 14, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
The policy shifts and flips in the first 100 days of the Trump administration have kept forecasters and financial markets on their toes. The administration has moved quickly on multiple fronts, with the unprecedented spike in U.S. tariffs having rippled within equity markets, treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, only now to move in the other direction despite ongoing risks on the tariff front. Once again, this quarter's Q&A is dominated by the potential impacts.
