Forecasts
December 12, 2024
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
Stronger-than-expected growth momentum would have set the stage for 2025 growth upgrades in both the U.S. and Canada. However, in light of downside policy risks – notably U.S. tariffs – projected growth rates have been kept largely intact relative to September.
December 05, 2024
Economic Outlook Gets Trumped!
Starting points matter for a new administration. President Trump will be inheriting a strong economy that has been beating forecasts by a statistical mile! This works to the advantage of Republicans in 2025. Households have more cushion to absorb some economic pain from a tariff war compared to the economies of trading partners that are treading water.
November 27, 2024
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
Investors must feel like 2024 has given them whiplash, as expectations for interest rates turn on a dime from one quarter to the next. The Trump trade is the latest catalyst, as the incoming administration's policies are perceived as inflationary, leading markets, and ourselves, to reduce the number of fed rate cuts expected. We have also downgraded growth for the U.S. economy next year but have leaned against incorporating the full scope of campaign promises.
