Forecasts
May 19, 2026
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
As the conflict in the Middle East extends deeper into the year, this quarter's Q&A focuses on what it means for the global economy, inflation and interest rates. We also take a look at the risks creeping into private credit, job creation and where things stand on U.S. tariffs and the upcoming USMCA review. For Canada, we tackle whether various government policy initiatives can move the needle on investment and the struggling housing sector and potential economic impacts from the World Cup games.
March 17, 2026
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
The Middle East conflict has not just lifted oil prices, but forecast uncertainty is even snaking its way into other areas like food security for some nations. The economic fallout hinges on duration. Our baseline outlook assumes a short-lived conflict, implying a temporary impact on inflation and growth; a prolonged escalation would materially worsen the global outlook.
February 26, 2026
2026: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once... The Sequel!
I thought President Trump threw us curve balls last year, but the start of 2026 came completely out of left field. This presentation will cut thru the noise and review what’s new and not in the U.S. and Canadian outlooks. The main takeaway is that the U.S. economy has been unflappable, with the forecast materially revised up. In contrast, there’s little change to Canada’s narrative.
December 04, 2025
The Days Of Our Lives
Yes, the title of this presentation comes from a famous soap opera. It’s appropriate to depict the past year, full of economic and political drama. We’re on the cusp of closing out 2025, a dramatic 365 days marked by the shifting sands in government policies and corporate behaviors. And this final quarter of the year has brought forward more pivots on both sides of the border that will keep us glued to the next episode. My only hope is that the economic drama doesn’t run sixty-three seasons like the soap opera!
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year. Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices on the firm side in 2026.
September 02, 2025
Tails We Win, Heads You Lose
The U.S. has been disruptor of itself. Whether it be to its own business cost structures and trade flows with tariff policies, or labor force dynamics with uncertainty and immigration policies. And yet, it’s paying a lower economic cost relative to peer countries. That gave rise to the title: Tails we win, heads you lose. I’ll explore the resilient features of the domestic economy, making sure to distinguish the narratives we hear from the data we see.
