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Latest Research
Global Trade Disrupted: Early Impacts of U.S. Tariffs
The dramatic increase in U.S. tariffs in 2025 has led to volatility in the trade data that makes it difficult to analyze trends. Despite these distortions, there is early evidence that underlying growth in U.S. imports has slowed.
November 05, 2025
Latest Research
Easing Rates, Limited Relief: U.S. Housing’s Gradual Recovery
Home sales are stuck near the lows reached during the Global Financial Crisis, as elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty continue to restrain activity. We see a bit more room for mortgage rates to fall by next summer, which alongside some fiscal tailwinds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and more certainty on the trade front, should lead to pick up in sales activity.
October 30, 2025
Trending
U.S. FOMC Meeting (October 28-29, 2025)
As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points (bps), lowering the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The FOMC also announced an end to its 'Quantitative Tightening' (QT) program as of December 1st – a process whereby maturing U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities roll-off the Fed's balance sheet.
October 29, 2025
Latest Research
The Economic & Fiscal Impacts of U.S. Defense Spending in 2026 and Beyond
The Trump administration is expected to front-load defense appropriations included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in fiscal year 2026, driving defense spending above $1 trillion (+15% year-on-year). We expect this to boost real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points next year, with a larger gain in 2026 inhibited by existing production and labor capacity constraints.
October 22, 2025
Trending
U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book (October 2025)
Today's Beige Book sheds some light on how the U.S. economy fared through September and the first week of October. Overall, economic activity was little changed relative to the previous report and has remained modest. Looking across the twelve Fed Districts, three reported slight to modest growth, five reported no change, and four noted a slight softening
October 15, 2025
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Updated Publications
Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
October 31, 2025
Updated Publications
State Economic Forecast
September 23, 2025
Updated Publications
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
September 18, 2025
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
August 20, 2025
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Updated Publications
Weekly Bottom Line
October 31, 2025
Updated Publications
State Economic Forecast
September 23, 2025
Updated Publications
U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast
September 18, 2025
Updated Publications
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
August 20, 2025
View more updated publications
Latest Research
Latest Research
Global Trade Disrupted: Early Impacts of U.S. Tariffs
November 05, 2025
Latest Research
Easing Rates, Limited Relief: U.S. Housing’s Gradual Recovery
October 30, 2025
Latest Research
The Economic & Fiscal Impacts of U.S. Defense Spending in 2026 and Beyond
October 22, 2025
Latest Research
WATCH: James Marple discusses how the new legislation on stablecoins could reshape the U.S. payment system on MoneyTalk
October 06, 2025
Previous
Next
Latest Research
Global Trade Disrupted: Early Impacts of U.S. Tariffs
November 05, 2025
Latest Research
Easing Rates, Limited Relief: U.S. Housing’s Gradual Recovery
October 30, 2025
Latest Research
The Economic & Fiscal Impacts of U.S. Defense Spending in 2026 and Beyond
October 22, 2025
Latest Research
WATCH: James Marple discusses how the new legislation on stablecoins could reshape the U.S. payment system on MoneyTalk
October 06, 2025
View more latest research
Commentaries
Commodities & Industry
U.S. ISM Services Index (October 2025)
November 05, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. Vehicle Sales (October 2025)
November 04, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (October 2025)
November 03, 2025
Trending
U.S. FOMC Meeting (October 28-29, 2025)
October 29, 2025
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Next
Commodities & Industry
U.S. ISM Services Index (October 2025)
November 05, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. Vehicle Sales (October 2025)
November 04, 2025
Commodities & Industry
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (October 2025)
November 03, 2025
Trending
U.S. FOMC Meeting (October 28-29, 2025)
October 29, 2025
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