Banner image of people working beside a stairway — TD Economics
Analysis covering the globe

Banner image of people working beside a stairway — TD Economics
Analysis covering the globe

U.S. Retail CRE: Limited New Supply Keeps Fundamentals on Solid Footing

Latest Research U.S. Retail CRE: Limited New Supply Keeps Fundamentals on Solid Footing U.S. retail CRE has arguably the strongest fundamentals among the four major property segments, with its 4.3% vacancy rate the lowest of the group and below its historical average. October 22, 2026

U.S. Corporate Profits at a Crossroads: AI Tailwinds and Emerging Risks

Latest Research U.S. Corporate Profits at a Crossroads: AI Tailwinds and Emerging Risks Non-financial corporate profits have reached multi-decade highs, with the renewed increase in 2026 supported by wider margins and strength in AI-related industries. Recent tax changes have provided an additional boost to after-tax cash flow. October 21, 2026

Tankers, Talk and Trade-offs: Interest Rate Drivers

Latest Research Tankers, Talk and Trade-offs: Interest Rate Drivers The U.S. yield curve is priced for higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates, and the repercussions are spilling into global yields. It’s not the high level of energy costs that matters, but its persistence that risks businesses passing them on to consumers. October 20, 2026

Goods Inflation: No Longer Smooth Sailing

Latest Research Goods Inflation: No Longer Smooth Sailing Goods inflation globally is becoming less benign. China’s price cycle, AI-related supply constraints, and geopolitical disruptions are unlikely to recreate pandemic-style shortages, but they will make goods inflation more positive, uneven, and vulnerable to renewed shocks. October 15, 2026

Beyond the Barrel: Refined Product Markets Remain Tight Despite Returning Barrels

Latest Research Beyond the Barrel: Refined Product Markets Remain Tight Despite Returning Barrels Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, but the reliability and cost of moving those barrels remain far from normal. Oil prices are still carrying a premium for the risk that today’s recovery proves fragile. October 13, 2026

Generative Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Future of Work: Why AI Is More Likely to Change Jobs Than Eliminate Them

Latest Research Generative Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Future of Work Rapid advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) have intensified concerns that automation could replace many workers. However, a large-scale displacement requires AI to perform tasks reliably, operate at a cost that is economically attractive, and be rapidly adopted across firms. October 01, 2026

Updated Publications

Weekly Bottom Line - Our summary of recent economic events and what to expect in the weeks ahead.

Updated Publications Weekly Bottom Line October 30, 2026

State Economic Forecast

Updated Publications State Economic Forecast September 22, 2026

U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast

Updated Publications U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast September 17, 2026

Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook

Updated Publications Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook August 19, 2026

Weekly Bottom Line - Our summary of recent economic events and what to expect in the weeks ahead.

Updated Publications Weekly Bottom Line October 30, 2026

State Economic Forecast

Updated Publications State Economic Forecast September 22, 2026

U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast

Updated Publications U.S. Quarterly Economic Forecast September 17, 2026

Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook

Updated Publications Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook August 19, 2026

View more updated publications

Latest Research

U.S. Retail CRE: Limited New Supply Keeps Fundamentals on Solid Footing

Latest Research U.S. Retail CRE: Limited New Supply Keeps Fundamentals on Solid Footing October 22, 2026

U.S. Corporate Profits at a Crossroads: AI Tailwinds and Emerging Risks

Latest Research U.S. Corporate Profits at a Crossroads: AI Tailwinds and Emerging Risks October 21, 2026

Tankers, Talk and Trade-offs: Interest Rate Drivers

Latest Research Tankers, Talk and Trade-offs: Interest Rate Drivers October 20, 2026

Goods Inflation: No Longer Smooth Sailing

Latest Research Goods Inflation: No Longer Smooth Sailing October 15, 2026

U.S. Retail CRE: Limited New Supply Keeps Fundamentals on Solid Footing

Latest Research U.S. Retail CRE: Limited New Supply Keeps Fundamentals on Solid Footing October 22, 2026

U.S. Corporate Profits at a Crossroads: AI Tailwinds and Emerging Risks

Latest Research U.S. Corporate Profits at a Crossroads: AI Tailwinds and Emerging Risks October 21, 2026

Tankers, Talk and Trade-offs: Interest Rate Drivers

Latest Research Tankers, Talk and Trade-offs: Interest Rate Drivers October 20, 2026

Goods Inflation: No Longer Smooth Sailing

Latest Research Goods Inflation: No Longer Smooth Sailing October 15, 2026

View more latest research

Commentaries

Commentaries Real GDP (Q3-2026, advance estimate) October 29, 2026

U.S. Personal Income & Spending

Consumer U.S. Personal Income & Spending (September 2026) October 29, 2026

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting

Commentaries U.S. FOMC Meeting (October 27-28, 2026) October 28, 2026

U.S. Housing Starts and Permits

Real Estate U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (September 2026) October 20, 2026

Commentaries Real GDP (Q3-2026, advance estimate) October 29, 2026

U.S. Personal Income & Spending

Consumer U.S. Personal Income & Spending (September 2026) October 29, 2026

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting

Commentaries U.S. FOMC Meeting (October 27-28, 2026) October 28, 2026

U.S. Housing Starts and Permits

Real Estate U.S. Housing Starts and Permits (September 2026) October 20, 2026

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