Canadian Employment (November 2025)

Canada's unemployment rate tumbles as employment jumps, again 

• Canada's economy added another 54k jobs in November (+0.3% month/month), 57k more than consensus expectations for a 2.5k decline. The details weren't quite as strong with full-time positions falling 9k, while part time added 63k.
• The unemployment rate tumbled to 6.5% from 6.9% in October (consensus expectations were for a rise to 7.0%). Even better, the job finding rate (19.6%) was slightly elevated relative to last year and Statistics Canada noted that, "increases in the unemployment rate earlier in the year had been associated with lower job finding rates". The unemployment rate was helped lower by 26k workers who left the labour force. The labour force participation rate fell 0.2 ppts. 
• Job gains were concentrated in health care and social assistance (+46k), accommodation and food services (+14k), and natural resources (+11k). The biggest losses were in wholesale and retail trade (-34k).
• Wage growth ticked higher in November, with average hourly wages up 3.6% versus a year ago (3.5% in October).                

Key Implications

• Oh boy, that's a pleasant surprise. Sure, the details suggest that part-time work is leading the charge on employment these past few months, but it's impossible to ignore that the jobless rate has fallen from 7.1% in September to 6.5% as of last month. The takeaway has to be that the Canadian labour market is in better shape than most had thought. That said, this situation can't be characterized as "good". The unemployment rate is still elevated, and job gains have been concentrated in part-time work. So, while this is an improvement, there is still room for recovery. 
• The Bank of Canada's next decision is due next week, and the past few employment reports have painted an encouraging picture of where the economy stands. However, there is still slack in the labour market and the trade picture heading into next year remains highly muddled. Our view is with the inflation rate expected to continue moderating, the Bank will remain on the sidelines next week and continue to look for signs that a sustained recovery is in the works.

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