Since August of last year, the share of forecasters calling for a recession crossed 50%, but someone forgot to tell the economy which keeps churning out jobs at an above-average pace. The data is still trying to get to a stage of "normalization", before there can be a risk of eventually entering a recessionary stage. So when U.S. regional bank failures took center stage, one the most asked question from clients was whether this would finally produce that recession, or offer no path to a soft landing?
In this client presentation, I address this and other questions.
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