Commentaries
May 21, 2026
May PMIs Show Rising Risk of Stagflation
May’s PMI releases for key global economies point to a broad-based loss of momentum in global activity. Purchasing manager confidence in many economies reached multi-year lows in composite or services indices and major economies in Europe registered significant downside surprises. At the same time, input cost pressures have reignited, reaching multi-year highs. Output price indexes remain elevated too, though some show slight moderation as companies appear to absorb some of the cost increases. This combination of weakening output and resurgent costs raises concerns of a potential stagflationary phase if war-driven disruptions endure.
March 02, 2026
Escalating Middle East Tensions Jolt Oil Markets
Oil markets have reacted swiftly to the latest escalation in Middle East tensions. At the time of writing, WTI crude prices have surged more than 5% to $70.50/bbl, marking the highest level since mid-June. Brent prices have moved up by a similar amount and are currently sitting at over $77/bbl. Currently, the Brent-WTI spread sits at $6.5 – about twice as high as its historical average – but still below the spread reached in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
January 20, 2026
Japan's Bond Market Sell-Off Spreads to the World
Japanese government bond yields soared today in a broad sell-off in long-dated bonds, as the implications of all parties' election promises on government debt became clear to investors. As of writing, the 40-year is up +29 bps to a record high of 4.2%.
May 08, 2025
U.S. Cuts Its First Trade Deal With UK – More Symbolic than Economic
Upon learning that the U.S. had reached a "full and comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK this morning, financial markets let out a sigh of relief. This marks the first deal since the large reciprocal tariffs were placed on all U.S trading partners a month ago.
February 12, 2025
Update on U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
The White House has announced the restoration of Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum that were originally imposed in 2018. The rate on steel will return to the 25% implemented in 2018, while the rate on aluminum will rise to 25%, from 10% previously.
