Updated Publications
December 11, 2025
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
Global growth has stood up to trade turmoil better than many feared earlier this year. Even with momentum expected to slow in 2026, it will be to a lesser extent than we expected three months ago. In contrast, the U.S. economy is forecast to gain a step as Fed rate cuts, the OBBBA and regulatory changes provide a tailwind. Canada is also an economy of contrasts. Government initiatives to boost investment are likely to meet some resistance with 2026’s CUSMA review. The Bank of Canada has done its part, with government spending set to play an increasing role.
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year. Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices on the firm side in 2026.
November 25, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
It's hard to write anything these days without addressing the impact of tariffs, but this quarter bubbled up many other issues for our Q&A. The effects of the U.S. government shutdown, signals from the labor market and the Fed's next interest rate move are also examined. For Canada, policy shifts are in the spotlight, with the federal budget, immigration and the Bank of Canada's move to the sidelines all addressed.
