Updated Publications
November 27, 2025
Commodities Quick-Take
Idiosyncratic factors are driving divergences in energy commodities. Oversupplied crude oil markets are weighing on the price outlook, while robust LNG demand has been bidding up natural gas. Base metals prices have been pressured higher following sharp tariff-induced selloffs earlier this year. Still-sluggish global demand will likely be offset by ongoing supply concerns, keeping metals prices on the firm side in 2026.
November 25, 2025
Questions? We've Got Answers: Addressing Issues Impacting the Economic and Financial Outlook
It's hard to write anything these days without addressing the impact of tariffs, but this quarter bubbled up many other issues for our Q&A. The effects of the U.S. government shutdown, signals from the labor market and the Fed's next interest rate move are also examined. For Canada, policy shifts are in the spotlight, with the federal budget, immigration and the Bank of Canada's move to the sidelines all addressed.
September 18, 2025
Global Quarterly Economic Forecast
Despite all the twists and turns in U.S. trade policy, our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged from our June view. Ditto for the U.S. economy, at least on the surface. Consumers have pulled back as the labor market has cooled, but that has been offset by strong business investment. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates further to support the labor market that has cooled further than previously believed.
