Canadian Housing Starts (October 2024)

Housing starts increase in October

• Canadian housing starts came in at 241k annualized units in October, representing an 8% month-on-month (m/m) increase from September. The six-month moving average of starts was flat at 244k units.
• October's gain was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban starts up 7% m/m to 176k units. Meanwhile, urban single-detached starts ticked higher by 1% m/m to 47.4k units.
• Urban starts were higher in 7 of 10 provinces:
  • The Prairies (+9.3k to 64.7k units) accounted for the bulk of the national gain in urban starts, supported by a surge in Alberta. Starts were also up in Quebec (+1.6k to 41.7k units) and Ontario (+3.3k to 64.6k units).
  • Starts were also higher across most of the Atlantic Region. However, a steep drop in Nova Scotia (-2.8k to 4.6k units), led to starts falling for the Atlantic overall. Meanwhile, starts were flat in B.C.

Key Implications

• October's healthy starts level is consistent with the signal sent from September's strong building permits report. It also sets homebuilding off on the right foot in terms of its contribution to overall economic growth in the fourth quarter.
• Even with October's gain, the outlook for housing starts remains soft. This is largely due to the outsized weakness expected for Ontario, which will bring down the national figures. We'd note that over the last 12 months, starts have tumbled to levels last seen in 2020 in Ontario. Pre-sales activity remains exceedingly weak in the GTA, pointing to more of the same through 2025. This is the key factor underpinning our forecast that starts will decline next year, even with homebuilding likely to hold up better in other parts of the country.           

Disclaimer

This report is provided by TD Economics. It is for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing, and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The views and opinions expressed may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise the TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.