Date Published: April 20, 2020
The economic data continue to paint a dire picture of the impact of COVID-19 containment measures in both real GDP and employment. In light of the latest data, we have updated our economic and employment forecasts.
For Canada, the unprecedented nature of COVID-19 and social distancing measures has resulted in more than a few unprecedented outcomes.
|Economic and Financial Forecasts|
|Canada Economic Data (%)|
|Real GDP growth*||1.0||3.4||1.1||0.3||-9.7||-42.0||32.6||15.8||12.8||4.8||2.1||1.8||1.6||-7.5||7.3|
|U.S. Economic Data (%)|
|Real GDP growth*||3.1||2.0||2.1||2.1||-4.2||-41.4||25.1||16.1||11.2||5.9||3.2||2.4||2.3||-6.2||6.6|
|Canada Interest Rates (%)|
|Overnight Target Rate||1.75||1.75||1.75||1.75||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||1.75||0.25||0.25|
|3-mth T-Bill Rate||1.67||1.66||1.65||1.66||0.21||0.20||0.20||0.20||0.20||0.20||0.20||0.20||1.65||0.20||0.20|
|2-yr Govt. Bond Yield||1.55||1.47||1.58||1.69||0.42||0.20||0.25||0.30||0.35||0.50||0.65||0.75||1.55||0.30||0.55|
|10-yr Govt. Bond Yield||1.62||1.46||1.37||1.70||0.71||0.50||0.60||0.70||0.85||1.05||1.20||1.40||1.55||0.65||1.15|
|U.S. Interest Rates (%)|
|Fed Funds Target Rate||2.50||2.50||2.00||1.75||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.25||0.50||2.20||0.25||0.30|
|3-mth T-Bill Rate||2.35||2.08||1.84||1.52||0.11||0.10||0.10||0.10||0.10||0.10||0.25||0.35||1.95||0.10||0.20|
|2-yr Govt. Bond Yield||2.27||1.75||1.63||1.58||0.23||0.20||0.25||0.35||0.50||0.65||0.80||0.90||1.80||0.25||0.70|
|10-yr Govt. Bond Yield||2.41||2.00||1.68||1.92||0.70||0.40||0.60||0.80||1.00||1.20||1.40||1.55||2.00||0.65||1.30|
|Canada - U.S Rate Spreads|
|Can - U.S. T-Bill Spread||-0.68||-0.42||-0.19||0.14||0.10||0.10||0.10||0.10||0.10||0.10||-0.05||-0.15||-0.29||0.10||0.00|
|Can - U.S. 10-Year Bond Spread||-0.79||-0.54||-0.31||-0.22||0.01||0.10||0.00||-0.10||-0.15||-0.15||-0.20||-0.15||-0.47||0.00||-0.16|
|USD per CAD||0.75||0.76||0.76||0.77||0.71||0.69||0.70||0.71||0.72||0.74||0.75||0.76||0.76||0.70||0.74|
|* Annualized Quarter/Quarter % Change. F: Forecast by TD Economics, April 2020. Forecasts for exchange rate and yields are end-of-period.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve.
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