British Columbia Election: Conservatives Secure a Majority Government

Highlights

• British Columbians have voted decisively for political change, handing the B.C. Conservatives a majority government and ending nine years of NDP rule. Lorne Doerkson, who entered the campaign as the Conservatives’ interim leader, is set to become the province’s next premier. 
• Preliminary results have the Conservatives elected or leading in 64 of the legislature’s 93 ridings, comfortably above the 47 seats required for a majority. The NDP sits at 27 seats, while the Greens are at two. 
• The Conservatives captured roughly 48% of the popular vote, compared with about 37% for the NDP and 11% for the Greens. 
• The result caps a turnaround for the Conservatives, who won 44 seats in 2024 but entered the campaign following significant caucus turmoil and a late leadership change. Their largest gains came in the Lower Mainland, where they flipped several former NDP-held ridings.
• David Eby retained his Vancouver-Point Grey seat but conceded the election and announced his resignation as NDP leader Saturday night. The NDP will now form the Official Opposition.

 

Key Implications

• The incoming Conservative government has campaigned on broad-based tax relief, spending restraint, faster project approvals and more aggressive resource sector development, particularly LNG and mining. The size of the majority should provide considerable scope to move ahead with that agenda.
• The most significant measure would raise B.C.’s basic personal amount from roughly $13,200 to $32,000, which the party estimates could save an individual around $1,000 annually. The platform also includes tax relief aimed at businesses, including a three-year PST exemption on qualifying machinery, equipment and software. 
• Taken together, the party estimates its tax measures will provide roughly $11 billion in relief through 2030. 
• The Conservatives’ shift toward resource development and major projects presents a big economic upside. The party has pledged to accelerate permitting and expand development across LNG, mining and other resource industries. Its platform targets doubling B.C.’s LNG production by 2032 and tripling it by 2035, alongside a proposed 120-day permitting framework for major projects valued above $250 million. 
• Funding the agenda will be the more difficult task as the Conservatives inherit a historically large deficit. Budget 2026 projected a $13.3 billion shortfall (2.9% of GDP) in FY2026/27, followed by deficits of $12.2 billion and $11.4 billion over the subsequent two years.
• The persistent deficits are expected to push taxpayer-supported debt above 30% of GDP in FY2026/27, with the ratio rising further thereafter to record highs.
• The Conservatives plan leans on spending restraint, including an outside hiring freeze and attrition as well as a government-wide core review, which they estimate will generate $2 billion and $1.8 billion in savings, respectively, over four years. Even so, their platform still projects a $10.8 billion deficit by 2030, suggesting little improvement in the deficit projection.
• The platform assumes real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2027, 2.8% in 2028 and 3.2% in 2029. Stronger economic activity is expected to generate roughly $2.6 billion in additional revenues over three years relative to the previous government's projections.
• However, these are relatively rosy projections compared with B.C.'s 2026 Budget forecast and current market expectations. Sub-2.0% real GDP growth is the consensus expectation over the next two years. B.C. still faces several important cyclical headwinds, notably sharply slower population growth, softer labour-force and employment growth, and a subdued housing market.
• To the extent that tax relief and faster project approvals lift investment and activity, stronger growth could help absorb some of the fiscal cost of the government's agenda. But if growth undershoots the platform's assumptions, the trade-off between tax relief, spending restraint and deficit reduction becomes considerably more difficult.
• Longer-term, the evolution of major-project investment, provincial revenues and the debt burden are key economic markers to watch over the Conservatives' first few budgets.

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